Contributions to the theory of maximum entropy estimation for ill-posed models

As técnicas estatísticas são fundamentais em ciência e a análise de regressão linear é, quiçá, uma das metodologias mais usadas. É bem conhecido da literatura que, sob determinadas condições, a regressão linear é uma ferramenta estatística poderosíssima. Infelizmente, na prática, algumas dessas condições raramente são satisfeitas e os modelos de regressão tornam-se mal-postos, inviabilizando, assim, a aplicação dos tradicionais métodos de estimação. Este trabalho apresenta algumas contribuições para a teoria de máxima entropia na estimação de modelos mal-postos, em particular na estimação de modelos de regressão linear com pequenas amostras, afetados por colinearidade e outliers. A investigação é desenvolvida em três vertentes, nomeadamente na estimação de eficiência técnica com fronteiras de produção condicionadas a estados contingentes, na estimação do parâmetro ridge em regressão ridge e, por último, em novos desenvolvimentos na estimação com máxima entropia. Na estimação de eficiência técnica com fronteiras de produção condicionadas a estados contingentes, o trabalho desenvolvido evidencia um melhor desempenho dos estimadores de máxima entropia em relação ao estimador de máxima verosimilhança. Este bom desempenho é notório em modelos com poucas observações por estado e em modelos com um grande número de estados, os quais são comummente afetados por colinearidade. Espera-se que a utilização de estimadores de máxima entropia contribua para o tão desejado aumento de trabalho empírico com estas fronteiras de produção. Em regressão ridge o maior desafio é a estimação do parâmetro ridge. Embora existam inúmeros procedimentos disponíveis na literatura, a verdade é que não existe nenhum que supere todos os outros. Neste trabalho é proposto um novo estimador do parâmetro ridge, que combina a análise do traço ridge e a estimação com máxima entropia. Os resultados obtidos nos estudos de simulação sugerem que este novo estimador é um dos melhores procedimentos existentes na literatura para a estimação do parâmetro ridge. O estimador de máxima entropia de Leuven é baseado no método dos mínimos quadrados, na entropia de Shannon e em conceitos da eletrodinâmica quântica. Este estimador suplanta a principal crítica apontada ao estimador de máxima entropia generalizada, uma vez que prescinde dos suportes para os parâmetros e erros do modelo de regressão. Neste trabalho são apresentadas novas contribuições para a teoria de máxima entropia na estimação de modelos mal-postos, tendo por base o estimador de máxima entropia de Leuven, a teoria da informação e a regressão robusta. Os estimadores desenvolvidos revelam um bom desempenho em modelos de regressão linear com pequenas amostras, afetados por colinearidade e outliers. Por último, são apresentados alguns códigos computacionais para estimação com máxima entropia, contribuindo, deste modo, para um aumento dos escassos recursos computacionais atualmente disponíveis.

Effect of light on ex situ production of symbiotic corals

The increasing interest in coral culture for biotechnological applications, to supply the marine aquarium trade, or for reef restoration programs, has prompted researchers to optimize coral culture protocols, with emphasis to ex situ production. When cultured ex situ, the growth performance of corals can be influenced by several physical, chemical and biological parameters. For corals harbouring zooxanthellae, light is one of such key factors, as it can influence the photosynthetic performance of these endosymbionts, as well as coral physiology, survival and growth. The economic feasibility of ex situ coral aquaculture is strongly dependent on production costs, namely those associated with the energetic needs directly resulting from the use of artificial lighting systems. In the present study we developed a versatile modular culture system for experimental coral production ex situ, assembled solely using materials and equipment readily available from suppliers all over the world; this approach allows researchers from different institutions to perform truly replicated experimental set-ups, with the possibility to directly compare experimental results. Afterwards, we aimed to evaluate the effect of contrasting Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) levels, and light spectra emission on zooxanthellae photochemical performance, through the evaluation of the maximum quantum yield of PSII (Fv/Fm) (monitored non-invasively and non-destructively through Pulse Amplitude Modulation fluorometry, PAM), chlorophyll a content (also determined non-destructively by using the spectral reflectance index Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI), photosynthetic and accessory pigments, number of zooxanthellae, coral survival and growth. We studied two soft coral species, Sarcophyton cf. glaucum and Sinularia flexibilis, as they are good representatives of two of the most specious genera in family Alcyoniidae, which include several species with interest for biotechnological applications, as well as for the marine aquarium trade; we also studied two commercially important scleractinian corals: Acropora formosa and Stylophora pistillata. We used different light sources: hydrargyrum quartz iodide (HQI) lamps with different light color temperatures, T5 fluorescent lamps, Light Emitting Plasma (LEP) and Light Emitting Diode (LED). The results achieved revealed that keeping S. flexibilis fragments under the same light conditions as their mother colonies seems to be photobiologically acceptable for a short-term husbandry, notwithstanding the fact that they can be successfully stocked at lower PAR intensities. We also proved that low PAR intensities are suitable to support the ex situ culture S. cf. glaucum in captivity at lower production costs, since the survival recorded during the experiment was 100%, the physiological wellness of coral fragments was evidenced, and we did not detect significant differences in coral growth. Finally, we concluded that blue light sources, such as LED lighting, allow a higher growth for A. formosa and S. pistillata, and promote significant differences on microstructure organization and macrostructure morphometry in coral skeletons; these findings may have potential applications as bone graft substitutes for veterinary and/or other medical uses. Thus, LED technology seems to be a promising option for scleractinian corals aquaculture ex situ.

A Influência da personalidade e da sintomatologia na Theory of Mind

Dissertação de mestrado, Psicologia Clínica e da Saúde, Faculdade de Ciências Humanas e Sociais, Universidade do Algarve, 2015

The Impact of Thought Speed and Variability on Psychological State and Threat Perception: Further Exploration of the Theory of Mental Motion

Thought speed and variability are purportedly common features of specific psychological states, such as mania and anxiety. The present study explored the independent and combinational influence of these variables upon condition-specific symptoms and affective state, as proposed by Pronin and Jacobs’ (Perspect Psychol Sci, 3:461–485, 2008) theory of mental motion. A general population sample was recruited online (N = 263). Participants completed a thought speed and variability manipulation task, inducing a combination of fast/slow and varied/repetitive thought. Change in mania and anxiety symptoms was assessed through direct self-reported symptom levels and indirect, processing bias assessment (threat interpretation). Results indicated that fast and varied thought independently increased self-reported mania symptoms. Affect was significantly less positive and more negative during slow thought. No change in anxiety symptoms or threat interpretation was found between manipulation conditions. No evidence for the proposed combinational influence of speed and variability was found. Implications and avenues for therapeutic intervention are discussed.

Internalising the external costs of light goods vehicle transport in Britain

Report produced as part of the Green Logistics project (EPSRC and Department for Transport funded). To what extent do the taxes paid by the light goods vehicles (LGVs) users in Britain cover their allocated infrastructural, environmental and congestion costs? This report is a continuation of a study on the internalisation of the external costs of heavy goods vehicle activity. Research undertaken jointly by the Transport Studies Group at University of Westminster and Logistics Research Centre at Heriot-Watt University has attempted to answer this question using official government transport statistics and monetary valuations for the external costs.

Internalising the external costs of light and heavy goods vehicle transport in London

Report produced as part of the Green Logistics project (EPSRC and Department for Transport funded). This report provides estimates of the total external costs of LGV and HGV operations in London. In 2006, total LGV and HGV activity imposed external costs of approximately £1.75-£1.8 billion using low, medium and high emission cost values. About 27 per cent of these costs were internalised by duties and taxes paid by LGV operators, compared with 26% in the case of HGVs. If congestion costs are excluded, taxes and duties paid by LGV operators are estimated to be 155% of LGVs' allocated infrastructural and environmental costs, compared with 85% in the case of HGVs. When using the medium emission cost values, LGVs accounted for 56% of these external costs in London and HGVs for 44%.

The brain-sex theory of occupational choice: a counterexample

The brain-sex theory of occupational choice suggests that males and females in male-typical careers show a male pattern of cognitive ability in terms of better spatial than verbal performance on cognitive tests with the reverse pattern for females and males in female-typical careers, These differences are thought to result from patterns of cerebral functional lateralisation. This study Sought Such occupationally related effects using synonym generation (verbal ability) and mental rotation (spatial ability) tasks used previously. It also used entrants to these careers as participants to examine whether patterns of cognitive abilities might predate explicit training and practice. Using a population of entrants to sex-differentiated University Courses, a moderate occupational effect on the synonym generation task was found, along with a weak (p<.10) sex effect on the mental rotation task. Highest performance on the mental rotation task was by female Students in fashion design, a female-dominated occupation which makes substantial visuospatial demands and attracts many students with literacy problems such as dyslexia. This group then appears to be a counterexample to the brain-sex theory. However, methodological issues Surrounding previous Studies are highlighted: the simple synonym task appears to show limited discrimination of the sexes, leading to questions concerning the legitimacy of inferences about lateralisation based on scores from that test. Moreover, the human figure-based mental rotation task appears to tap the wrong aspect of visuospatial skill, likely to be needed for male-typical courses such as engineering, Since the fashion-clesign career is also one that attracts disproportionately many male students whose sexual orientation is homosexual, data were examined for evidence of female-typical patterns of cognitive performance among that subgroup. This was not found. This study therefore provides Do evidence for the claim that female-pattern cerebral functional lateralisation is likely in gay males.

Internalising the external costs of light and heavy goods vehicles in London

This report provides estimates of the total external costs of LGV and HGV operations in London. In 2006, total LGV and HGV activity imposed external costs of approximately £1.75-£1.8 billion using low, medium and high emission cost values. About 27 per cent of these costs were internalised by duties and taxes paid by LGV operators, compared with 26% in the case of HGVs. If congestion costs are excluded, taxes and duties paid by LGV operators are estimated to be 155% of LGVs' allocated infrastructural and environmental costs, compared with 85% in the case of HGVs. When using the medium emission cost values, LGVs accounted for 56% of these external costs in London and HGVs for 44%.

Internalising the external costs of light goods vehicle transport in Britain

To what extent do the taxes paid by the light goods vehicles (LGVs) users in Britain cover their allocated infrastructural, environmental and congestion costs? This report is a continuation of a study on the internalisation of the external costs of heavy goods vehicle activity. Research undertaken jointly by the Transport Studies Group at University of Westminster and Logistics Research Centre at Heriot-Watt University has attempted to answer this question using official government transport statistics and monetary valuations for the external costs.

Higher-order moments in the theory of diversifying and portfolio composition

This paper examines the role of higher-order moments in portfolio choice within an expected-utility framework. We consider two-, three-, four- and five-parameter density functions for portfolio returns and derive exact conditions under which investors would all be optimally plungers rather than diversifiers. Through comparative statics we show the importance of higher-order risk preference properties, such as riskiness, prudence and temperance, in determining plunging behaviour. Empirical estimates for the S&P500 provide evidence for the optimality of diversification.