Models for pheromone evaluation in Ant Systems for Mobile Ad-hoc networks

On a mobile ad-hoc network environment, where the resources are scarce, the knowledge about the network's link state is essential to optimize the routing procedures. This paper presents a study about different pheromone evaluation models and how they react to possible changes in traffic rate. Observing how the pheromone value on a link changes, it could be possible to identify certain patterns which can indicate the path status. For this study, the behavior of the Ant System evaluation model was compared with a Temporal Active Pheromone model (a biological approach) and a Progressive Pheromone Reduction model with and without a maximum pheromone limit.

Mathematical modelling of shallow flows: closure models drawn from grain-scale mechanics of sediment transport and flow hydrodynamics

Canadian Journal of Civil Engineering 36(10) 1605–16

Maturity models in the hospital information systems management initial research

Os modelos de maturidade são instrumentos facilitadores da gestão das organizações, incluindo a gestão da sua função sistemas de informação, não sendo exceção as organizações hospitalares. Neste artigo apresenta-se uma investigação inicial que visa o desenvolvimento de um abrangente modelo de maturidade para a gestão dos sistemas de informação hospitalares. O desenvolvimento deste modelo justifica-se porque os modelos de maturidade atuais no domínio da gestão dos sistemas informação hospitalares ainda se encontram numa fase embrionária de desenvolvimento, sobretudo porque são pouco detalhados, não disponibilizam ferramentas para determinação da maturidade e não apresentam as características dos estágios de maturidade estruturadas por diferentes fatores de influência.

Non-linear time series models

The last three decades have seen quite dramatic changes the way we modeled time dependent data. Linear processes have been in the center stage in modeling time series. As far as the second order properties are concerned, the theory and the methodology are very adequate.However, there are more and more evidences that linear models are not sufficiently flexible and rich enough for modeling purposes and that failure to account for non-linearities can be very misleading and have undesired consequences.

A score test for non-nested hypotheses with applications to discrete data models

This paper suggests that a convenient score test against non-nested alternatives can be constructed from the linear combination of the likelihood functions of the competing models. It is shown that this procedure is essentially a test for the correct specification of the conditional distribution of the variable of interest.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Genetic variability of Triatoma flavida and Triatoma bruneri (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) by RAPD-PCR technique

The Triatominae (Hemiptera:Reduviidae) contains the principal and potential Chagas disease vectors present in Mexico, Central America and South America. Triatoma flavida and T. bruneri are Cuban species. These species are closely related according to morphology and were considered synonyms until 1981, when they were separated on the grounds of external characters of the body and the morphology of male genitalia. The present study seeks to analyze genetic polymorphism of T. flavida and T. bruneri populations using RAPD techniques, and to assess the genetic relationship between these species. Ten random primers were used to evaluate the genetic variability among species using RAPD-PCR. The genetic flow among them was calculated. The dendrogram based on calculated Jaccard distances showed two clearly distinguishable clusters which coincided with the studied species. Within each species, moderate genetic differentiation (Fst 0.05-0.15) and migration rates (N > 1) were found among populations, that reveal gene flow and genetic homogeneity. Between species, the Fst value showed a high genetic differentiation and the migration rate was insufficient to maintain genetic homogeneity, and confirmed the absence of gene flow between them. Our results confirm the genetic variability among T. flavida and T. bruneri species.

A Multiple Criteria Utility-based Approa h for the Unit Commitment with Wind Power and Pumped Storage Hydro

The integration of wind power in eletricity generation brings new challenges to unit commitment due to the random nature of wind speed. For this particular optimisation problem, wind uncertainty has been handled in practice by means of conservative stochastic scenario-based optimisation models, or through additional operating reserve settings. However, generation companies may have different attitudes towards operating costs, load curtailment, or waste of wind energy, when considering the risk caused by wind power variability. Therefore, alternative and possibly more adequate approaches should be explored. This work is divided in two main parts. Firstly we survey the main formulations presented in the literature for the integration of wind power in the unit commitment problem (UCP) and present an alternative model for the wind-thermal unit commitment. We make use of the utility theory concepts to develop a multi-criteria stochastic model. The objectives considered are the minimisation of costs, load curtailment and waste of wind energy. Those are represented by individual utility functions and aggregated in a single additive utility function. This last function is adequately linearised leading to a mixed-integer linear program (MILP) model that can be tackled by general-purpose solvers in order to find the most preferred solution. In the second part we discuss the integration of pumped-storage hydro (PSH) units in the UCP with large wind penetration. Those units can provide extra flexibility by using wind energy to pump and store water in the form of potential energy that can be generated after during peak load periods. PSH units are added to the first model, yielding a MILP model with wind-hydro-thermal coordination. Results showed that the proposed methodology is able to reflect the risk profiles of decision makers for both models. By including PSH units, the results are significantly improved.

Tuple-based morphisms for interoperability establishment of financial information models

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e Computadores

Variability in Galactomannan detection by platelia Aspergillus EIA™ according to the Aspergillus species

Here we investigate the extent to which different Aspergillus species release galactomannan (GM) in vitro. Marked variability was observed in GM reactivity between and within Aspergillus species, with A. terreus strains showing the highest GM indexes. The in vivo significance of these findings remains to be determined.

ANIMAL MODELS FOR THE STUDY OF LEISHMANIASIS IMMUNOLOGY

Leishmaniasis remains a major public health problem worldwide and is classified as Category I by the TDR/WHO, mainly due to the absence of control. Many experimental models like rodents, dogs and monkeys have been developed, each with specific features, in order to characterize the immune response to Leishmania species, but none reproduces the pathology observed in human disease. Conflicting data may arise in part because different parasite strains or species are being examined, different tissue targets (mice footpad, ear, or base of tail) are being infected, and different numbers (“low” 1×102 and “high” 1×106) of metacyclic promastigotes have been inoculated. Recently, new approaches have been proposed to provide more meaningful data regarding the host response and pathogenesis that parallels human disease. The use of sand fly saliva and low numbers of parasites in experimental infections has led to mimic natural transmission and find new molecules and immune mechanisms which should be considered when designing vaccines and control strategies. Moreover, the use of wild rodents as experimental models has been proposed as a good alternative for studying the host-pathogen relationships and for testing candidate vaccines. To date, using natural reservoirs to study Leishmania infection has been challenging because immunologic reagents for use in wild rodents are lacking. This review discusses the principal immunological findings against Leishmania infection in different animal models highlighting the importance of using experimental conditions similar to natural transmission and reservoir species as experimental models to study the immunopathology of the disease.

Landslide susceptibility assessment in Karanganyar regency - Indonesia - Comparison of knowledge-based and Data-driven Models

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Unveiling the mating system and genetic variability in the yeast Kwoniella mangroviensis using molecular approaches

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Genética Molecular e Biomedicina

Avaliação do comportamento de uma ponte metálica centenária sujeita à ação de tráfego ferroviário ligeiro

A presente dissertação tem como objetivo principal a análise numérica do comportamento dinâmico de uma ponte ferroviária, sob ação de tráfego ligeiro ferroviário. Neste contexto são apresentados alguns fundamentos teóricos a ter em conta nestes domínios, visando uma melhor compreensão dos fenómenos existentes no comportamento dinâmico de pontes ferroviárias quando sujeitas ao tráfego. O caso de estudo teve como foco a ponte Luiz I, uma ponte metálica situada sobre o rio Douro, que liga as cidades do Porto e Vila Nova de Gaia, sob ação de tráfego ligeiro ferroviário no seu tabuleiro superior para a condição anterior aos trabalhos de reabilitação e reforço realizados entre 2004 e 2005. Para o efeito foi desenvolvido um modelo numérico de elementos finitos da ponte realizado com recurso ao programa ANSYS, assim como um modelo numérico do veículo do Metro de Lisboa. Com base nestes modelos foram obtidos os parâmetros modais, nomeadamente as frequências naturais e os modos de vibração de toda a estrutura e do veículo. O estudo do comportamento dinâmico da ponte foi realizado por intermédio de uma metodologia de cargas móveis e de interação veículo-estrutura, através da ferramenta computacional Train-Bridge Interaction (TBI). As análises dinâmicas foram efetuadas para a passagem dos veículos de passageiros das redes de Metros do Porto e Lisboa. Nestas análises é estudada a resposta da estrutura em função da variabilidade ao nível da secção transversal, dependência do tramo, influência do veículo, da sua velocidade de circulação e impacto das frequências de vibração estimadas pelo modelo numérico.

Algorithm for the Parkinson’s disease behavioural models characterization using a biosensor

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica