Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions

Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the economy. In this article we develop a ‘hard case’ for the assumptions of election forecasting models. Belgium is a multiparty system with perennial coalition governments. Furthermore, Belgium has two completely segregated party systems (Dutch and French language). Since the prime minister during the period 1974-2011 has always been a Dutch language politician, French language voters could not even vote for the prime minister, so this cognitive shortcut to establish political accountability is not available. Results of an analysis for the French speaking parties (1981-2010) show that even in these conditions of opaque accountability, retrospective economic voting occurs as election results respond to indicators with regard to GDP and unemployment levels. Party membership figures can be used to model the popularity function in election forecasting.

Punishing Local Incumbents for the Local Economy

After decennia of research on economic voting, it is now established that the state of the economy affects voting behaviour. Nevertheless, this conclusion is the result of a focus on predominantly national-level economies and national-level elections. In this paper, we show that at a local level as well, mechanisms of accountability linked to the economy are at work. The local economic context affected voting behaviour in the 2012 Belgian municipal elections, with a stronger increase of unemployment rates in their municipality significantly decreasing the probability that voters choose an incumbent party. Additionally, we observe that voters are not opportunistically voting for incumbents who lower tax rates. Instead, voters seem to be holding local incumbents accountable for local economic conditions. We hence conclude that voters care about economic outcomes, not about what specific policies are implemented to reach these outcomes.

Institutional Persistence in Eastern Europe: Economic and Political Legacies of Empires and Communism

This dissertation seeks to advance our understanding of the roles that institutions play in economic development. How do institutions evolve? What mechanisms are responsible for their persistence? What effects do they have on economic development?

I address these questions using historical and contemporary data from Eastern Europe and Russia. This area is relatively understudied by development economists. It also has a very interesting history. For one thing, for several centuries it was divided between different empires. For another, it experienced wars and socialism in the 20th century. I use some of these exogenous shocks as quasi-natural social experiments to study the institutional transformations and its effects on economic development both in the short and long run.

This first chapter explores whether economic, social, and political institutions vary in their resistance to policies designed to remove them. The empirical context for the analysis is Romania from 1690 to the 2000s. Romania represents an excellent laboratory for studying the persistence of different types of historical institutional legacies. In the 18th and 19th centuries, Romania was split between the Habsburg and Ottoman Empires, where political and economic institutions differed. The Habsburgs imposed less extractive institutions relative to the Ottomans: stronger rule of law, a more stable and predictable state, a more developed civil society, and less corruption. In the 20th century, the Romanian Communist regime tried deliberately to homogenize the country along all relevant dimensions. It was only partially successful. Using a regression discontinuity design, I document the persistence of economic outcomes, social capital, and political attitudes. First, I document remarkable convergence in urbanization, education, unemployment, and income between the two former empires. Second, regarding social capital, no significant differences in organizational membership, trust in bureaucracy, and corruption persist today. Finally, even though the Communists tried to change all political attitudes, significant discontinuities exist in current voting behavior at the former Habsburg-Ottoman border. Using data from the parliamentary elections of 1996-2008, I find that former Habsburg rule decreases by around 6 percentage points the vote share of the major post-Communist left party and increases by around 2 and 5 percentage points the vote shares of the main anti-Communist and liberal parties, respectively.

The second chapter investigates the effects of Stalin’s mass deportations on distrust in central authority. Four deported ethnic groups were not rehabilitated after Stalin’s death; they remained in permanent exile until the disintegration of the Soviet Union. This allows one to distinguish between the effects of the groups that returned to their homelands and those of the groups that were not allowed to return. Using regional data from the 1991 referendum on the future of the Soviet Union, I find that deportations have a negative interim effect on trust in central authority in both the regions of destination and those of origin. The effect is stronger for ethnic groups that remained in permanent exile in the destination regions. Using data from the Life in Transition Survey, the chapter also documents a long-term effect of deportations in the destination regions.

The third chapter studies the short-term effect of Russian colonization of Central Asia on economic development. I use data on the regions of origin of Russian settlers and push factors to construct an instrument for Russian migration to Central Asia. This instrument allows me to interpret the outcomes causally. The main finding is that the massive influx of Russians into the region during the 1897-1926 period had a significant positive effect on indigenous literacy. The effect is stronger for men and in rural areas. Evidently, interactions between natives and Russians through the paid labor market was an important mechanism of human capital transmission in the context of colonization.

The findings of these chapters provide additional evidence that history and institutions do matter for economic development. Moreover, the dissertation also illuminates the relative persistence of institutions. In particular, political and social capital legacies of institutions might outlast economic legacies. I find that most economic differences between the former empires in Romania have disappeared. By the same token, there are significant discontinuities in political outcomes. People in former Habsburg Romania provide greater support for liberalization, privatization, and market economy, whereas voters in Ottoman Romania vote more for redistribution and government control over the economy.

In the former Soviet Union, Stalin’s deportations during World War II have a long-term negative effect on social capital. Today’s residents of the destination regions of deportations show significantly lower levels of trust in central authority. This is despite the fact that the Communist regime tried to eliminate any source of opposition and used propaganda to homogenize people’s political and social attitudes towards the authorities. In Central Asia, the influx of Russian settlers had a positive short-term effect on human capital of indigenous population by the 1920s, which also might have persisted over time.

From a development perspective, these findings stress the importance of institutions for future paths of development. Even if past institutional differences are not apparent for a certain period of time, as was the case with the former Communist countries, they can polarize society later on, hampering economic development in the long run. Different institutions in the past, which do not exist anymore, can thus contribute to current political instability and animosity.

Equitable representation in councils: theory and an application to the United Nations Security Council

We analyze democratic equity in council voting games (CVGs). In a CVG, a voting body containing all members delegates decision-making to a (time-varying) subset of its members, as describes, e.g., the relationship between the United Nations General Assembly and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing democratic equitability in CVGs at both the country and region levels, and for different assumptions regarding preference correlation. We apply the framework to evaluate the equitability of the UNSC, and the claims of those who seek to reform it. We find that the individual permanent members are overrepresented by between 21.3 times (United Kingdom) and 3.8 times (China) from a country-level perspective, while from a region perspective Eastern Europe is the most heavily overrepresented region with more than twice its equitable representation, and Africa the most heavily underrepresented. Our equity measures do not preclude some UNSC members from exercising veto rights, however.

El interés de la audiencia por las intervenciones televisivas de Pablo Iglesias: estrategia comunicativa de Podemos

Este artículo analiza la eclosión mediática y política del partido político Podemos durante sus primeros meses de vida tras las elecciones europeas. Comprobaremos si el interés que despierta el partido en sus inicios, en intención de voto, se traslada a las audiencias de televisión con dos hipótesis que muestran la estrategia comunicativa de Podemos y su repercusión: la H1 afirma que los programas en los que participa Pablo Iglesias obtienen mayor audiencia de la habitual y la H2 plantea que la apuesta del líder de Podemos por el medio televisivo es muy superior y con mejores resultados con respecto a los partidos clásicos. Los resultados demuestran que los programas en los que participa (N=14) crecen un 62% y baten récord de audiencia. Concluimos que la estrategia comunicativa de Podemos da importancia a la televisión, además de continuar con la estrategia en redes aprendida en el 15M.

The impact of political and economic crisis on the polarization of the Spanish media

In this paper the characteristics of the cyclical political polarization of the Spanish media system are defined. From this study, a prospective analysis raises doubts about this scenario remains unchanged because of the political and economic crisis. It seeks to define the role played by political and media actors in polarization focusing on the two legislatures where the tension reached higher levels (1993-1996 and 2004-2008) and compares it with the developments faced by them in the current economical and political context of crisis. To achieve these aims, it has been performed an analysis of media content (since 1993) and looked through primary sociological sources and the scientific literature about polarization. This is an exploratory, critical and descriptive case analysis.

The Electoral Rise of Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe: Ideological Parameters and Social Motivations

Populist radical right parties have become major political actors in Europe. This paper analyses the path and the different phases that have led them from the fringes of public debate to their present signifi cance, which is based on their capacity to attract electoral support and infl uence the political agendas in their respective countries. Besides, an analysis of the core ideological beliefs of these parties, and of the topics on which their mobilization capacity rests, is provided, as well as of the type of voters that are attracted by them. Finally, the authors discuss the meaning and impact of the growing popularity of the ideas and proposals put forward by the populist radical right parties.

Programas de tertulia política en Twitter: un modelo neurocomunicativo de análisis del discurso

En este trabajo aplicamos a la red social Twitter un modelo de análisis del discurso político y mediático desarrollado en publicaciones previas, que permite hacer compatible el estudio de los datos discursivos con propuestas explicativas surgidas a propósito de la comunicación política (neurocomunicación) y de la comunicación digital (la red como quinto estado, convergencia, inteligencia colectiva). Asumimos que hay categorías del encuadre discursivo (frame) que pueden ser tratadas como indicadores de habilidades cognitivas y comunicativas. Analizamos estas categorías agrupándolas en tres dimensiones fundamentales: la intencional (ilocutividad del tuit, encuadre interpretativo de las etiquetas), referencial (temas, protagonistas), e interactiva (alineamiento estructural, predictibilidad; marcas de intertextualidad y dialogismo; afiliación partidista). El corpus consta de 4116 tuits: 3000 tuits pertenecientes a los programas Al Rojo Vivo (La Sexta: A3 Media), Las Mañanas Cuatro (Cuatro: Mediaset) y Los Desayunos de TVE (RTVE), 1116 tuits de seguidores de los programas, que corresponden a 45 tuits de cada programa. Los resultados confirman que el modelo permite establecer diferentes perfiles de subjetividad política en las cuentas de Twitter.

Random Forest Based Approach for Concept-Drift Handling

Algorithms for concept drift handling are important for various applications including video analysis and smart grids. In this paper we present decision tree ensemble classication method based on the Random Forest algorithm for concept drift. The weighted majority voting ensemble aggregation rule is employed based on the ideas of Accuracy Weighted Ensemble (AWE) method. Base learner weight in our case is computed for each sample evaluation using base learners accuracy and intrinsic proximity measure of Random Forest. Our algorithm exploits both temporal weighting of samples and ensemble pruning as a forgetting strategy. We present results of empirical comparison of our method with îriginal random forest with incorporated replace-the-looser forgetting andother state-of-the-art concept-drift classiers like AWE2.

Resolving conflict in bipolar societies: The fate of political settlements in Fiji and Northern Ireland

Ethnically divided societies that might be described as ‘balanced bicommunal’ (where there are two communities, each of which comes close to representing half of the population) pose a particular challenge to conventional principles of collective decision-making, and commonly threaten political stability. This article analyses the experience of two such societies – Northern Ireland and Fiji – with a view to exploring whether there are common processes in the route by which political stability has been pursued. We assess the manner in which a distinctive relationship with Great Britain and its political culture has interacted with local conditions to produce a highly competitive, bipolar party system. This leads to consideration of the devices that have been adopted in an effort to bridge the gap between the communities: the Fiji constitution as amended in 1997, and Northern Ireland’s Good Friday Agreement of 1998. We focus, in particular, on the use of unusual (preferential voting) formulas for the election of parliamentarians and of an inclusive principle in the selection of ministers, and consider the contribution of these institutional devices to the attainment of political stability. We find that, in both cases, the intervention of forces from outside the political system had a decisive impact, though in very different ways. In addition to being underpinned by solid institutional design, for political settlements to work effectively, some minimal level of trust between rival elites is required.

Neural networks would 'vote' according to Borda's Rule

Can neural networks learn to select an alternative based on a systematic aggregation of convicting individual preferences (i.e. a 'voting rule')? And if so, which voting rule best describes their behavior? We show that a prominent neural network can be trained to respect two fundamental principles of voting theory, the unanimity principle and the Pareto property. Building on this positive result, we train the neural network on profiles of ballots possessing a Condorcet winner, a unique Borda winner, and a unique plurality winner, respectively. We investigate which social outcome the trained neural network chooses, and find that among a number of popular voting rules its behavior mimics most closely the Borda rule. Indeed, the neural network chooses the Borda winner most often, no matter on which voting rule it was trained. Neural networks thus seem to give a surprisingly clear-cut answer to one of the most fundamental and controversial problems in voting theory: the determination of the most salient election method.

Democracy lessons in market-oriented schools : The case of Swedish upper secondary education

Based on recent ethnographic research, this article explores young people’s opportunities of formal and informal democracy learning and expressions of such learning in the highly market-influenced Swedish upper secondary education. With its ambitious democracy-fostering goals and far-reaching marketisation, Swedish education constitutes an interesting case in this respect. The analysis indicates that ‘voting with the feet’ emerges as an important way of exerting student influence. At the same time, young people’s voice is surprisingly neglected in classroom practice. Increased focus on performance and goal attainment tends to overshadow less ‘rewarding’ aspects of the curriculum, such as democracy teaching and learning, both from the side of teachers and students. Students are also increasingly expected to act as school representatives and to avoid giving negative impressions of their school.

Política pública para o idoso : um estudo da cidadania no Grupo Cabelos de Neve do Programa Conviver em Campina Grande-PB

The main objective of the study about the citizenship development in elderly attended by the Conviver Program of the City Hall of Campina Grande in Paraiba, Brazil was to evaluate how the actions of the Program contribute for the citizenship practice according to the users. The Citizenship analyzed is the existence of political, civil and social rights according to Marshall. For that it was utilized a descriptive research and a study of case based on technical procedure. The research was settled by the people who are benefited by the Conviver Program of the Snow Hair Group and the sample was formed by the active participants that it is in the Group for over ten years, corresponding to a total of ten elderly. For the data collection was utilized basic questionnaire in function of the low schooling of the interviewed, according to Marshall (2002) theory about the citizenship construction from each person. It was utilized the methodological procedure proposed by Bardin (2006), categorical analysis, in the qualitative data analysis, that was divided in four parts. In relation to Political Rights, noted that the program has stimulated your Watched on the exercise of voting and being voted. On the Civil Rights was observed that the Program has given incentive to actions which provide the users the justice rights in and in occupational activities as a job. In relation to Social Rights it was observed that the Conviver Program has contributed in order that its users can lead their lives according to the standards imposed by the society, which have being failed in the education area. As for the type of citizenship it was verified that the Program has given incentive to the served users, becoming more evidence on the speech basis

Heroism and Adventurism: Can Applied Theatre Practices Give Participants the Experience of Being the Heroes and Heroines of Their Own Stories?

Move on Up! is part of a series of widening participation interactive Theatre in Education programmes at The University of Worcester, designed to raise educational aspirations. It was conceived for year 6 pupils about to go up to secondary school, to reflect on this transition and the challenges and pitfalls it presented to them. I searched for stimulus material to create the dynamic of an adventure story that reflected and generated the excitement and fear of change. The Mysterious Island by Jules Verne provided the structure of this classic genre with characters stranded on a desert island. Directing a team of four student actors and a stage manager I sought to promote the heroic ideal of using the skills needed to survive against adversity and to transpose it to a school context. The four characters discover talents and interests on the year 6 school trip and they endeavour to become the best version of themselves at their secondary school where these attributes have to be tested in a new environment. Using interactive voting software helped to determine whether pupils could achieve the sense of control and ownership outlined in Boal’s theatre practice. The programme provides a number of points of intervention where participants could vote and influence the shape of the character’s stories and perhaps create heroes or anti – heroes depending on the decisions they make. Boal wants participants to become the outspoken protagonists of their own stories or specactors. This paper will investigate whether applied theatre practice can give participants a heroic experience by exploring the process of creating Move on Up! and the response to the programme from year 6 pupils in West Midlands schools.