Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

Enteropathogens associated with diarrheal disease in infants of poor urban areas of Porto Velho, Rondônia: a preliminary study

One hundred and thirty cases of diarrhea and 43 age-matched controls, 0 to 5 years old, were studied in a pediatric outpatient unit from a poor peri urban area of Porto Velho, Rondônia. Eighty percent of diarrheal cases were observed in the groups under 2 years of age. Rotavirus (19.2%) was the most frequent enteropathogen associated with diarrhea, followed by Shigella flexneri (6.15%) and S. sonnei (1.5%) and Salmonella sp. (6.9%). Four cases of E. coli enterotoxigenic infections (3.1%), E. coli enteropathogenic (EPEC)(2.3%) one case of E. coli enteroinvasive infection (0.8%) and one case of Yersinia enterocolitica (0.8%) were also identified. Mixed infections were frequent, associating rotavirus, EPEC and Salmonella sp. with Entamoeba histolytica and Giardia lamblia.

Predicting reptile distributions at the mesoscale: relation to climate and topography

Aim To explore the respective power of climate and topography to predict the distribution of reptiles in Switzerland, hence at a mesoscale level. A more detailed knowledge of these relationships, in combination with maps of the potential distribution derived from the models, is a valuable contribution to the design of conservation strategies. Location All of Switzerland. Methods Generalized linear models are used to derive predictive habitat distribution models from eco-geographical predictors in a geographical information system, using species data from a field survey conducted between 1980 and 1999. Results The maximum amount of deviance explained by climatic models is 65%, and 50% by topographical models. Low values were obtained with both sets of predictors for three species that are widely distributed in all parts of the country (Anguis fragilis , Coronella austriaca , and Natrix natrix), a result that suggests that including other important predictors, such as resources, should improve the models in further studies. With respect to topographical predictors, low values were also obtained for two species where we anticipated a strong response to aspect and slope, Podarcis muralis and Vipera aspis . Main conclusions Overall, both models and maps derived from climatic predictors more closely match the actual reptile distributions than those based on topography. These results suggest that the distributional limits of reptile species with a restricted range in Switzerland are largely set by climatic, predominantly temperature-related, factors.

Epidemiological Aspects of Head Lice in Children Attending Day Care Centres, Urban and Rural Schools in Uberlândia, Central Brazil

From November 1996 to March 2000, a total of 884 children between 0 and 15 years, from 11 institutions including day care centres, public urban and public rural schools in Uberlândia, State of Minas Gerais, central Brazil, were examined for head louse infestation. Children's sex, race, age and some hairs characteristics were shown to be associated to parasite infestation. A prevalence rate of 35% was found and the highest rates were observed in black, female children, with long, dark, wavy hairs. Hairs density and thickness did not seem to influence significantly the distribution of this pediculosis in Uberlândia's schoolchildren. Differences observed between the prevalence rates of head lice in children from the urban institutions suggest there is a greater epidemiological heterogeneity in this group when compared to the rural schoolchildren.

Search for Borrelia sp. in ticks collected from potential reservoirs in an urban forest reserve in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil: a short report

A total of 128 ticks of the genus Amblyomma were recovered from 5 marsupials (Didelphis albiventris) - with 4 recaptures - and 17 rodents (16 Bolomys lasiurus and 1 Rattus norvegicus) captured in an urban forest reserve in Campo Grande, State of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Of the ticks collected, 95 (78.9%) were in larval form and 22 (21.1%) were nymphs; the only adult (0.8%) was identified as A. cajennense. Viewed under dark-field microscopy in the fourth month after seeding, 9 cultures prepared from spleens and livers of the rodents, blood of the marsupials, and macerates of Amblyomma sp. nymphs revealed spiral-shaped, spirochete-like structures resembling those of Borrelia sp. Some of them showed little motility, while others were non-motile. No such structures could be found either in positive Giemsa-stained culture smears or under electron microscopy. No PCR amplification of DNA from those cultures could be obtained by employing Leptospira sp., B. burgdorferi, and Borrelia sp. primers. These aspects suggest that the spirochete-like structures found in this study do not fit into the genera Borrelia or Leptospira, requiring instead to be isolated for proper identification.

Phlebotomine sand flies (Diptera: Psychodidae) associated with the appearance of urban leishmaniasis in the city of Sincelejo, Colombia

Although once associated only with rural areas, the American leishmaniasis vectors now appear to be associated also with urban and suburban areas of the Neotropics. Following the appearance of the first autochthonous visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis cases in the urban area of the city of Sincelejo, Colombia, a preliminary entomological survey of the sand fly species composition was performed using Shannon and CDC light traps. A total of 486 sand flies representing six Lutzomyia species were collected. L. evansi, L. panamensis and L. gomezi, known vectors of Leishmania spp. were the predominant sand fly species around dwellings. The finding of these species in relation to the appearance of the first cases of leishmaniasis in the city mentioned is discussed.

Clinical and epidemiological aspects of human parvovirus B19 infection in an urban area in Brazil (Niterói city area, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)

This study was designed to analyse the clinical and epidemiological data from human parvovirus B19 cases in a six-year study of rash diseases conduct in an urban area in Brazil (Niterói city area, State of Rio de Janeiro). A total of 673 patients with acute rash diseases were seen at two primary health care units and at a general hospital. A clotted blood sample was collected from all subjects at the time of consultation. Forty-nine per cent (330 cases) of the patients were negative for dengue, rubella and measles IgM or for low avidity IgG to HHV-6. Of these 330, 105 (31.8%) were identified as IgM positive to parvovirus B19 by using an antibody capture EIA. During the study period, three distinct peaks of parvovirus infection were detected, suggesting that the disease appears to cycle in approximately 4-5 years. B19 infection was characterized by variable combinations of fever, flu-like symptoms, arthropathy, and gastrointestinal symptoms. Frequency of fever and arthropathy was substantially higher in adults, 75% [chi2 (1 D.F.) = 11.39, p = 0.0007] and 62.5% [chi2 (1 D.F.) = 29.89, p = 0.0000], respectively. "Slapped-cheek" appearance and reticular or lace-like rash were seen in only 30.1% of the children. No adult presented this typical rash. The lack of the typical rash pattern in a large proportion of parvovirus B19 and the similarity of clinical manifestations to other rash diseases, specially to rubella, highlight the difficulty of diagnosing B19 infection on clinical grounds alone.

Where will conflicts between alien and rare species occur after climate and land-use change? A test with a novel combined modelling approach

Protecting native biodiversity against alien invasive species requires powerful methods to anticipate these invasions and to protect native species assumed to be at risk. Here, we describe how species distribution models (SDMs) can be used to identify areas predicted as suitable for rare native species and also predicted as highly susceptible to invasion by alien species, at present and under future climate and land-use scenarios. To assess the condition and dynamics of such conflicts, we developed a combined predictive modelling (CPM) approach, which predicts species distributions by combining two SDMs fitted using subsets of predictors classified as acting at either regional or local scales. We illustrate the CPM approach for an alien invader and a rare species associated to similar habitats in northwest Portugal. Combined models predict a wider variety of potential species responses, providing more informative projections of species distributions and future dynamics than traditional, non-combined models. They also provide more informative insight regarding current and future rare-invasive conflict areas. For our studied species, conflict areas of highest conservation relevance are predicted to decrease over the next decade, supporting previous reports that some invasive species may contract their geographic range and impact due to climate change. More generally, our results highlight the more informative character of the combined approach to address practical issues in conservation and management programs, especially those aimed at mitigating the impact of invasive plants, land-use and climate changes in sensitive regions

Inhabitants' and professionals' social representations of health determinants in a disadvantaged urban area in France: a qualitative analysis = représentations sociales des déterminants de santé dans une zone urbaine défavorisée en France : analyse qualitative auprès d'habitants et de professionnels

Background and objective. - Access to care in French disadvantaged urban areas remains an issue despite the implementation of local healthcare structures. To understand this contradiction, we investigated social representations held by inhabitants of such areas, as well as those of social and healthcare professionals, regarding events or behaviours that can impact low-income individuals' health. Method. - In the context of a health diagnosis, 288 inhabitants living in five disadvantaged districts of Aix-les-Bains, as well as 28 professionals working in these districts, completed an open-ended questionnaire. The two groups of respondents were asked to describe what could have an impact on health status from the inhabitants' point of view. The textual responses were analyzed using the Alceste method. Results. - We observed a number of differences in the way the inhabitants and professionals represented determinants of health in disadvantaged urban areas: the former proposed a representation mixing personal responsibility with physiological, social, familial, and professional aspects, whereas the latter associated health issues with marginalization (financial, drug, or alcohol problems) and personal responsibility. Both inhabitants and professionals mentioned control over events and lifestyle as determinants of health. Discussion. - The results are discussed regarding the consequences of these different representations on the beneficiary - healthcare-provider relationship in terms of communication and trust.

Dispersal of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) in an urban endemic dengue area in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Experimental releases of female Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus were performed in August and September 1999, in an urban area of Nova Iguaçu, State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to estimate their flight range in a circular area of 1,600 m where 1,472 ovitraps were set. Releases of 3,055 Ae. aegypti and 2,225 Ae. albopictus females, fed with rubidium (Rb)-marked blood and surgically prevented from subsequent blood-feeding, were separated by 11 days. Rb was detected in ovitrap-collected eggs by atomic emission spectrophotometry. Rb-marked eggs of both species were detected up to 800 m from the release point. Eggs of Ae. albopictus were more numerous and more heterogeneously distributed in the area than those of Ae. aegypti. Eggs positively marked for Rb were found at all borders of the study area, suggesting that egg laying also occurred beyond these limits. Results from this study suggest that females can fly at least 800 m in 6 days and, if infected, potentially spread virus rapidly.