Quando a água sobe: análise da capacidade adaptativa de moradores do Jardim Pantanal expostos às enchentes

A capacidade adaptativa às enchentes diz respeito à capacidade inerente de indivíduos ou de um sistema de se ajustar aos efeitos desse evento e lidar com ele, de modo a moderar seus danos potenciais. A cidade de São Paulo é particularmente vulnerável às enchentes devido ao seu histórico de uso e ocupação do solo. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar a capacidade adaptativa a partir da realidade local de moradores do Jardim Pantanal, localizado na zona leste do município de São Paulo às várzeas do rio Tietê, a fim de propor ações que possam contribuir na construção dessa capacidade. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida por meio de levantamento documental e bibliográfico, entrevistas semiestruturadas, análise das transcrições, codificação, e categorização dos dados. As capacidades adaptativas genérica e específica nos níveis organizacionais individual e de sistema são baixas, e entre os determinantes da capacidade adaptativa às enchentes os recursos financeiros, a vulnerabilidade urbana e as estratégias de enfrentamento foram considerados os mais importantes, em nível individual. A falta de recursos, a irregularidade de rendimentos e a ausência de diversificação na fonte de renda limitam as opções disponíveis de moradia em áreas regulares e dificultam a mobilização de recursos para a adoção de medidas preventivas e de recuperação pós-evento. A vulnerabilidade urbana expressa-se pela ocupação em área irregular, onde não são realizados investimentos em medidas de infraestrutura por parte dos moradores, que poderiam reduzir a exposição aos impactos das enchentes, pois não se sabe até quando poderão permanecer na área. As estratégias de enfrentamento demonstram ter caráter apenas reativo sem qualquer planejamento, sendo decididas e tomadas reativamente quando a água sobe. Tendo em vista os aspectos observados, a construção da capacidade adaptativa às enchentes no Jardim Pantanal requer: a) entrosamento entre as medidas de adaptação autônomas (do indivíduo) e as planejadas (do sistema); b) ações de adaptação antecipatórias, mais do que responsivas; e c) medidas de adaptação de curto e longo prazos que considerem as vulnerabilidades que surgiram durante o período de adaptação.

Análise do aproveitamento múltiplo do reservatório de Barra Bonita - SP, através da aplicação de técnica de programação linear associada a modelo de rede de fluxo

O objeto deste trabalho é a análise do aproveitamento múltiplo do reservatório de Barra Bonita, localizado na confluência entre os rios Piracicaba e Tietê, no estado de São Paulo e pertencente ao chamado sistema Tietê-Paraná. Será realizada a otimização da operação do reservatório, através de programação linear, com o objetivo de aumentar a geração de energia elétrica, através da maximização da vazão turbinada. Em seguida, a partir dos resultados da otimização da geração de energia, serão utilizadas técnicas de simulação computacional, para se obter índices de desempenho conhecidos como confiabilidade, resiliência e vulnerabilidade, além de outros fornecidos pelo próprio modelo de simulação a ser utilizado. Estes índices auxiliam a avaliação da freqüência, magnitude e duração dos possíveis conflitos existentes. Serão analisados os possíveis conflitos entre a navegação, o armazenamento no reservatório, a geração de energia e a ocorrência de enchentes na cidade de Barra Bonita, localizada a jusante da barragem.

El plan global frente al riesgo de inundación en la ribera del Júcar

El Plan Global del Júcar frente al riesgo de inundación pretende minimizar los daños causados por las avenidas que periódicamente afectan a la Ribera del Júcar. En el presente artículo se describen y analizan las actuaciones de este Plan, la génesis del mismo, el proceso de elaboración y sus resultados. La problemática es compleja, ya que el riesgo de inundación abarca un territorio muy poblado, con un importante desarrollo industrial y agrícola. Además, la existencia de espacios naturales de elevado valor ambiental, hace que las intervenciones derivadas del Plan consideren al mismo nivel la defensa frente a avenidas y las demandas sociales y ambientales, tras el consenso alcanzado en un proceso de participación pública. El Plan incorpora aspectos innovadores en ingeniería hidráulica, cuyo resultado es una actuación integrada y sostenible, que compatibiliza la protección frente a avenidas con la recuperación y mejora del ámbito fluvial, y su función como corredor vertebrador del territorio.

Avenidas fluviales e inundaciones de los ríos Vinalopó y Segura en época islámica y sus consecuencias en el poblamiento

Son escasas las noticias de época andalusí sobre inundaciones fluviales en el sur de la provincia de Alicante. En la descripción de Elche del Mugrib de Ibn Sa’īd se nos informa indirectamente de una inundación del Vinalopó en el segundo cuarto del s. XIII; como consecuencia, la ciudad musulmana se anegó y bastante población la abandonó. Respecto al vecino río Segura, el geógrafo al-‘Udrī (m. 1085) al describimos el curso del río nos informa que su sistema de riegos es como el del Nilo; este paralelo se debe al uso inteligente que hacían los egipcios y los habitantes de la Vega Baja de las aguas de la inundación fluvial como abono periódico de sus tierras y como elemento para luchar contra los marjales. También se analizan otras noticias sobre la torre de Embergoñes, la cual, situada a la entrada del curso fluvial en Orihuela, consideramos que era un promontorio de señales y de vigilancia de la inundación. Finalmente se recuerda la existencia de acanaladuras en las puertas de la catedral de Orihuela para proteger el interior del templo de las aguas de avenida.

Análisis de la percepción de los riesgos naturales en la Universidad de Alicante

Los estudios sobre percepción de riesgos intentan analizar las relaciones afectivas y éticas que una comunidad establece con el ambiente en que vive. Las percepciones ambientales son entendidas como la forma en que cada persona aprecia y valora su entorno. El presente artículo tiene como objetivo analizar la percepción de riesgos naturales en los miembros de la comunidad académica de la Universidad de Alicante. Para evaluar la percepción se aplicaron encuestas. Han sido contestadas 80 encuestas, todas por medio electrónico. Los resultados indican que la percepción de las principales amenazas por fenómenos naturales son: las inundaciones, las sequías y los incendios forestales. Se concluye resaltando la importancia de trabajos que aporten información sobre la percepción ambiental, con el fin de hacer más eficiente la aplicación de políticas ambientales.

Estimación de pérdidas económicas directas provocadas por inundación. Aplicación de las curvas inundación-daños en países en desarrollo

Las inundaciones son los desastres causados por fenómenos naturales que más daños provocan a diferentes sectores, como son los de la vivienda, comercial, agrícola, turístico e industrial. Este último es un sector que sufre importantes daños, pero que no ha sido estudiado ya que se le consideraba como poco vulnerable y con capacidad de adaptación ante desastres naturales. La implementación de una metodología para calcular los daños directos tangibles en función de la altura de lámina de agua alcanzada vs daños económicos, permite tener estimaciones de las pérdidas económicas causadas por inundaciones. Este trabajo muestra el estado del arte e identifica las investigaciones referentes al cálculo de daños provocados por inundación y su aplicación en países en desarrollo como lo es México.

Unconfirmed but still feared: the tidal wave of Bulgarians and Romanians one year later. EPC Commentary, 15 January 2015

This time last year politicians and media were stoking fears over the massive floods of Romanians and Bulgarians who were about to invade the UK (but not only) as the employment restrictions for these EU citizens were being lifted in nine remaining EU Member States. These fears have proven to be unfounded. Nevertheless, major national and EU developments will continue to feed this debate.

REACHING FOR BLUE GOLD - How the EU can rise to the water challenge while reaping the rewards. EPC Issue Paper No. 80, November 2015

Foreword. Climate change is bad news for water resources – and thus for human development, societies, economies, the environment, and local and global security. The increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods serves as a reminder of the effects climate change can have on the quantity and quality of global water reserves, and thus on various other aspects of life. Even though the effects differ from region to region, this is a global challenge with far-reaching consequences to which Europe is not immune. As the world leaders gather in Paris in December 2015 to discuss a new international climate deal, it is worth to remind politicians, businesses and citizens of the water challenge and its wider implications, which already affect us today – and which will only get worse with climate change. However, water-related risks resulting from climate change are not a fatality and damage control doesn’t have to be the only mantra. Placing the water challenge at the centre of political and security dialogues, development strategies and climate mitigation and adaptation measures, and implementing smarter water management, could also bring great economic, environmental and social benefits, in and outside the European Union. It would also contribute to global security. Water matters – now more than ever. This is also what this publication demonstrates. Building on the European Policy Centre’s, two-year “Blue Gold” project, this publication shows the rationale for action, how the EU could use its existing internal and external policy instruments to tackle the water challenge with its various dimensions and the benefits of action.

Financial risks and opportunities in the time of climate change. Bruegel Policy Brief ISSUE 2016/02 APRIL 2016

Real economic imbalances can lead to financial crisis. The current unsustainable use of our environment is such an imbalance. Financial shocks can be triggered by either intensified environmental policies, cleantech breakthroughs (both resulting in the stranding of unsustainable assets), or the economic costs of crossing ecological boundaries (eg floods and droughts due to climate change). Financial supervisors and risk managers have so far paid little attention to this ecological dimension, allowing systemic financial imbalances resulting from ecological pressures to build up. Inattention also leads to missed economic and financial opportunities from the sustainability transition.

Application of the Equivalent Static Analysis method to the design of a steel frame structure with added viscous dampers

All the structures designed by engineers are vulnerable to natural disasters including floods and earthquakes. The energy released during strong ground motions should be dissipated by structural elements. Before 1990’s, this energy was expected to be dissipated through the beams and columns which at the same time were a part of gravity-load-resisting system. However, the main disadvantage of this idea was that gravity-resisting-frame was not repairable. Hence, during 1990’s, the idea of designing passive energy dissipation systems, including dampers, emerged. At the beginning, main problem was lack of guidelines for passive energy dissipation systems. Although till 2000 many guidelines and procedures where published, yet most of them were based on complicated analysis which was not so convenient for engineers and practitioners. In order to solve this problem recently some alternative design methods are proposed including 1. Lopez Garcia (2001) simple procedure for optimal damper configuration in MDOF structures 2. Christopoulos and Filiatrault (2006) trial and error procedure 3. Silvestri et al. (2010) Five-Step Method. 4. Palermo et al. (2015) Direct Five-Step Method. 5. Palermo et al. (2016) Simplified Equivalent Static Analysis (ESA). In this study, effectiveness and differences between last three alternative methods have been evaluated.

Climate change in mountain regions: how local communities adapt to extreme events

This paper examines how local communities adapt to climate change and how governance structures can foster or undermine adaptive capacity. Climate change policies, in general, and disaster risk management in mountain regions, in particular, are characterised by their multi-level and multi-sectoral nature during formulation and implementation. The involvement of numerous state and non-state actors at local to national levels produces a variety of networks of interaction and communication. The paper argues that the structure of these relational patterns is critical for understanding adaptive capacity. It thus proposes an expanded concept of adaptive capacity that incorporates (horizontal and vertical) actor integration and communication flow between these actors. The paper further advocates the use of formal social network analysis to assess these relational patterns. Preliminary results from research on adaptation to climate change in a Swiss mountain region vulnerable to floods and other natural hazards illustrate the conceptual and empirical significance of the main arguments.

M-AARE - Coupling atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models in the Aare river basin, Switzerland

The triggering mechanism and the temporal evolution of large flood events, especially of worst-case scenarios, are not yet fully understood. Consequently, the cumulative losses of extreme floods are unknown. To study the link between weather conditions, discharges and flood losses it is necessary to couple atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models. The objective of the M-AARE project is to test the potentials and opportunities of a model chain that relates atmospheric conditions to flood losses or risks. The M-AARE model chain is a set of coupled models consisting of four main components: the precipitation module, the hydrology module, the hydrodynamic module, and the damage module. The models are coupled in a cascading framework with harmonized time-steps. First exploratory applications show that the one way coupling of the WRF-PREVAH-BASEMENT models has been achieved and provides promising new insights for a better understanding of key aspects in flood risk analysis.

Geochemistry and grain-size of sediment core PC29A, Quitralco Fjord, Chilean Patagonia

The climate of Chilean Patagonia is strongly influenced by the southern westerlies, which control the amount and latitudinal distribution of precipitation in the southern Andes. In austral summer, the Southern Westerly Wind Belt (SWWB) is restricted to the high latitudes. It expands northward in winter, which results in a strong precipitation seasonality between 35 and 45°S. Here, we present a new precipitation seasonality proxy record from Quitralco fjord (46°S), where relatively small latitudinal shifts in the SWWB result in large changes in precipitation seasonality. Our 1400 yr record is based on sedimentological and geochemical data obtained on a sediment core collected in front of a small river that drains the Patagonian Andes, which makes this site particularly sensitive to changes in river discharge. Our results show Fe/Al and Ti/Al values that are low between 600 and 1200 CE, increasing at 1200-1500 CE, and high between 1500 and 1950 CE. The increasing Fe/Al and Ti/Al values reflect a decrease in mean sediment grain-size from 30 to 20 µm, which is interpreted as a decrease in seasonal floods resulting from an equatorward shift of the SWWB. Our results suggest that, compared to present-day conditions, the SWWB was located in a more poleward position before 1200 CE. It gradually shifted towards the equator in 1200-1500 CE, where it remained in a sustained position until 1950 CE. The comparison of our record with published regional sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions for the late Holocene shows that equatorward shifts in the SWWB are systematically coeval with decreasing SSTs and vice versa, which resembles fluctuations over glacial-interglacial timescales. We argue that the synchronicity between SST and SWWB changes during the last 1400 years represents the response of the SWWB to temperature changes in the Southern Hemisphere.

Holocene flood frequency across the Central Alps

The frequency of large-scale heavy precipitation events in the European Alps is expected to undergo substantial changes with current climate change. Hence, knowledge about the past natural variability of floods caused by heavy precipitation constitutes important input for climate projections. We present a comprehensive Holocene (10,000 years) reconstruction of the flood frequency in the Central European Alps combining 15 lacustrine sediment records. These records provide an extensive catalog of flood deposits, which were generated by flood-induced underflows delivering terrestrial material to the lake floors. The multi-archive approach allows suppressing local weather patterns, such as thunderstorms, from the obtained climate signal. We reconstructed mainly late spring to fall events since ice cover and precipitation in form of snow in winter at high-altitude study sites do inhibit the generation of flood layers. We found that flood frequency was higher during cool periods, coinciding with lows in solar activity. In addition, flood occurrence shows periodicities that are also observed in reconstructions of solar activity from 14C and 10Be records (2500-3000, 900-1200, as well as of about 710, 500, 350, 208 (Suess cycle), 150, 104 and 87 (Gleissberg cycle) years). As atmospheric mechanism, we propose an expansion/shrinking of the Hadley cell with increasing/decreasing air temperature, causing dry/wet conditions in Central Europe during phases of high/low solar activity. Furthermore, differences between the flood patterns from the Northern Alps and the Southern Alps indicate changes in North Atlantic circulation. Enhanced flood occurrence in the South compared to the North suggests a pronounced southward position of the Westerlies and/or blocking over the northern North Atlantic, hence resembling a negative NAO state (most distinct from 4.2 to 2.4 kyr BP and during the Little Ice Age). South-Alpine flood activity therefore provides a qualitative record of variations in a paleo-NAO pattern during the Holocene. Additionally, increased South Alpine flood activity contrasts to low precipitation in tropical Central America (Cariaco Basin) on the Holocene and centennial time scale. This observation is consistent with a Holocene southward migration of the Atlantic circulation system, and hence of the ITCZ, driven by decreasing summer insolation in the Northern hemisphere, as well as with shorter-term fluctuations probably driven by solar activity.

Mid-to Late Holocene flood frequency in the northeastern Alps as recorded in varved sediments of Lake Mondsee

Annually laminated (varved) lake sediments with intercalated detrital layers resulting from sedimentary input by runoff events are ideal archives to establish precisely dated records of past extreme runoff events. In this study, the mid- to late Holocene varved sediments of Lake Mondsee (Upper Austria) were analysed by combining sedimentological, geophysical and geochemical methods. This approach allows to distinguish two types of detrital layers related to different types of extreme runoff events (floods and debris flows) and to detect changes in flood activity during the last 7100 years. In total, 271 flood and 47 debris flow layers, deposited during spring and summer, were identified, which cluster in 18 main flood episodes (FE 1-18) with durations of 30-50 years each. These main flood periods occurred during the Late Neolithic (7100-7050 vyr BP and 6470-4450 vyr BP), the late Bronze Age and the early Iron Age (3300-3250 and 2800-2750 vyr BP), the late Iron Age (2050-2000 vyr BP), throughout the Dark Ages Cold Period (1500-1200 vyr BP), and at the end of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age (810-430 vyr BP). Summer flood episodes in Lake Mondsee are generally more abundant during the last 1500 years, often coinciding with major advances of alpine glaciers. Prior to 1500 vyr BP, spring/summer floods and debris flows are generally less frequent, indicating a lower number of intense rainfall events that triggered erosion. In comparison with the increase of late Holocene flood activity in western and northwestern (NW) Europe, commencing already as early as 2800 yr BP, the hydro-meteorological shift in the Lake Mondsee region occurred much later. These time lags in the onset of increased hydrological activity might be either due to regional differences in atmospheric circulation pattern or to the sensitivity of the individual flood archives. The Lake Mondsee sediments represent the first precisely dated and several millennia long summer flood record for the northeastern (NE) Alps, a key region at the climatic boundary of Atlantic, Mediterranean and East European air masses aiding a better understanding of regional and seasonal peculiarities of flood occurrence under changing climate conditions.