755 resultados para Tim Lockyer
Resumo:
Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model (GCM) downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change (at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct) appears within ±10% for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out
Resumo:
Current climate model projections do not exhibit a large change in the intensity of extratropical cyclones. However, there are concerns that current models represent moist processes poorly, and this provides motivation for investigating observational evidence for how cyclones behave in warmer climates. In the North Atlantic in particular, recent decades provide a clear contrast between warm and cold climates due to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. In this paper we investigate these periods as analogues which may provide a guide to future cyclone behavior. While temperature and moisture rise in recent warm periods as in the projections, differences in energetics and temperature gradients imply that these periods are only partial analogues. The main result from current reanalyses is that while increased cyclone-associated precipitation is seen in the recent warm periods, there is no robust evidence of an increase in cyclone intensity by other measures, such as maximum wind speed or vorticity. A set of low- and high-resolution model simulations are also studied, suggesting that changes in cyclone intensity may be different in higher-resolution reanalyses.
Resumo:
Adaptive governance is the use of novel approaches within policy to support experimentation and learning. Social learning reflects the engagement of interdependent stakeholders within this learning. Much attention has focused on these concepts as a solution for resilience in governing institutions in an uncertain climate; resilience representing the ability of a system to absorb shock and to retain its function and form through reorganisation. However, there are still many questions to how these concepts enable resilience, particularly in vulnerable, developing contexts. A case study from Uganda presents how these concepts promote resilient livelihood outcomes among rural subsistence farmers within a decentralised governing framework. This approach has the potential to highlight the dynamics and characteristics of a governance system which may manage change. The paper draws from the enabling characteristics of adaptive governance, including lower scale dynamics of bonding and bridging ties and strong leadership. Central to these processes were learning platforms promoting knowledge transfer leading to improved self-efficacy, innovation and livelihood skills. However even though aspects of adaptive governance were identified as contributing to resilience in livelihoods, some barriers were identified. Reflexivity and multi-stakeholder collaboration were evident in governing institutions; however, limited self-organisation and vertical communication demonstrated few opportunities for shifts in governance, which was severely challenged by inequity, politicisation and elite capture. The paper concludes by outlining implications for climate adaptation policy through promoting the importance of mainstreaming adaptation alongside existing policy trajectories; highlighting the significance of collaborative spaces for stakeholders and the tackling of inequality and corruption.
Resumo:
Morphing fears (also called transformation obsessions) involve concerns that a person may become contaminated by and acquire undesirable characteristics of others. These symptoms are found in patients with OCD and are thought to be related to mental contamination. Given the high levels of distress and interference morphing fears can cause, a reliable and valid assessment measure is needed. This article describes the development and evaluation of the Morphing Fear Questionnaire (MFQ), a 13-item measure designed to assess for the presence and severity of morphing fears. A sample of 900 participants took part in the research. Of these, 140 reported having a current diagnosis of OCD (SR-OCD) and 760 reported never having had OCD (N-OCD; of whom 24 reported a diagnosis of an anxiety disorder and 23 reported a diagnosis of depression). Factor structure, reliability, and construct and criterion related validity were investigated. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses supported a one-factor structure replicable across the N-OCD and SR-OCD group. The MFQ was found to have high internal consistency and good temporal stability, and showed significantly greater associations with convergent measures (assessing obsessive-compulsive symptoms, mental contamination, thought-action fusion and magical thinking) than with divergent measures (assessing depression and anxiety). Moreover, the MFQ successfully discriminated between the SR-OCD sample and the N-OCD group, anxiety disorder sample, and depression sample. These findings suggest that the MFQ has sound psychometric properties and that it can be used to assess morphing fear. Clinical implications are discussed.
Investigating the relationship between Eurasian snow and the Arctic Oscillation with data and models
Resumo:
Recent research suggests Eurasian snow-covered area (SCA) influences the Arctic Oscillation (AO) via the polar vortex. This could be important for Northern Hemisphere winter season forecasting. A fairly strong negative correlation between October SCA and the AO, based on both monthly and daily observational data, has been noted in the literature. While reproducing these previous links when using the same data, we find no further evidence of the link when using an independent satellite data source, or when using a climate model.
Resumo:
Functional neuroimaging investigations of pain have discovered a reliable pattern of activation within limbic regions of a putative "pain matrix" that has been theorized to reflect the affective dimension of pain. To test this theory, we evaluated the experience of pain in a rare neurological patient with extensive bilateral lesions encompassing core limbic structures of the pain matrix, including the insula, anterior cingulate, and amygdala. Despite widespread damage to these regions, the patient's expression and experience of pain was intact, and at times excessive in nature. This finding was consistent across multiple pain measures including self-report, facial expression, vocalization, withdrawal reaction, and autonomic response. These results challenge the notion of a "pain matrix" and provide direct evidence that the insula, anterior cingulate, and amygdala are not necessary for feeling the suffering inherent to pain. The patient's heightened degree of pain affect further suggests that these regions may be more important for the regulation of pain rather than providing the decisive substrate for pain's conscious experience.
Resumo:
Anxiolytic effects of perceived control have been observed across species. In humans, neuroimaging studies have suggested that perceived control and cognitive reappraisal reduce negative affect through similar mechanisms. An important limitation of extant neuroimaging studies of perceived control in terms of directly testing this hypothesis, however, is the use of within-subject designs, which confound participants' affective response to controllable and uncontrollable stress. To compare neural and affective responses when participants were exposed to either uncontrollable or controllable stress, two groups of participants received an identical series of stressors (thermal pain stimuli). One group ("controllable") was led to believe they had behavioral control over the pain stimuli, whereas another ("uncontrollable") believed they had no control. Controllable pain was associated with decreased state anxiety, decreased activation in amygdala, and increased activation in nucleus accumbens. In participants who perceived control over the pain, reduced state anxiety was associated with increased functional connectivity between each of these regions and ventral lateral/ventral medial pFC. The location of pFC findings is consistent with regions found to be critical for the anxiolytic effects of perceived control in rodents. Furthermore, interactions observed between pFC and both amygdala and nucleus accumbens are remarkably similar to neural mechanisms of emotion regulation through reappraisal in humans. These results suggest that perceived control reduces negative affect through a general mechanism involved in the cognitive regulation of emotion.
Resumo:
The frontal pole corresponds to Brodmann area (BA) 10, the largest single architectonic area in the human frontal lobe. Generally, BA10 is thought to contain two or three subregions that subserve broad functions such as multitasking, social cognition, attention, and episodic memory. However, there is a substantial debate about the functional and structural heterogeneity of this large frontal region. Previous connectivity-based parcellation studies have identified two or three subregions in the human frontal pole. Here, we used diffusion tensor imaging to assess structural connectivity of BA10 in 35 healthy subjects and delineated subregions based on this connectivity. This allowed us to determine the correspondence of structurally based subregions with the scheme previously defined functionally. Three subregions could be defined in each subject. However, these three subregions were not spatially consistent between subjects. Therefore, we accepted a solution with two subregions that encompassed the lateral and medial frontal pole. We then examined resting-state functional connectivity of the two subregions and found significant differences between their connectivities. The medial cluster was connected to nodes of the default-mode network, which is implicated in internally focused, self-related thought, and social cognition. The lateral cluster was connected to nodes of the executive control network, associated with directed attention and working memory. These findings support the concept that there are two major anatomical subregions of the frontal pole related to differences in functional connectivity.
Resumo:
Repeated exposure to pain can result in sensitization of the central nervous system, enhancing subsequent pain and potentially leading to chronicity. The ability to reverse this sensitization in a top-down manner would be of tremendous clinical benefit, but the degree that this can be accomplished volitionally remains unknown. Here we investigated whether a brief (~5 min) cognitive-behavioural intervention could modify pain perception and reduce central sensitization (as reflected by secondary hyperalgesia). In each of 8 sessions, 2 groups of healthy human subjects received a series of painful thermal stimuli that resulted in secondary hyperalgesia. One group (regulate) was given brief pain-focused cognitive training at each session, while the other group (control) received a non-pain-focused intervention. The intervention selectively reduced pain unpleasantness but not pain intensity in the regulate group. Furthermore, secondary hyperalgesia was significantly reduced in the regulate group compared with the control group. Reduction in secondary hyperalgesia was associated with reduced pain catastrophizing, suggesting that changes in central sensitization are related to changes in pain-related cognitions. Thus, we demonstrate that central sensitization can be modified volitionally by altering pain-related thoughts.
Resumo:
Recent temperature extremes have highlighted the importance of assessing projected changes in the variability of temperature as well as the mean. A large fraction of present day temperature variance is associated with thermal advection, as anomalous winds blow across the land-sea temperature contrast for instance. Models project robust heterogeneity in the 21st century warming pattern under greenhouse gas forcing, resulting in land-sea temperature contrasts increasing in summer and decreasing in winter, and the pole-to-equator temperature gradient weakening in winter. In this study, future monthly variability changes in the 17 member ensemble ESSENCE are assessed. In winter, variability in midlatitudes decreases while in very high latitudes and the tropics it increases. In summer, variability increases over most land areas and in the tropics, with decreasing variability in high latitude oceans. Multiple regression analysis is used to determine the contributions to variability changes from changing temperature gradients and circulation patterns. Thermal advection is found to be of particular importance in the northern hemisphere winter midlatitudes, where the change in mean state temperature gradients alone could account for over half the projected changes. Changes in thermal advection are also found to be important in summer in Europe and coastal areas, although less so than in winter. Comparison with CMIP5 data shows that the midlatitude changes in variability are robust across large regions, particularly high northern latitudes in winter and mid northern latitudes in summer.