Contributions to uncertainty reduction in the estimation of PV plants performance

Esta tesis doctoral presenta un procedimiento integral de control de calidad en centrales fotovoltaicas, que comprende desde la fase inicial de estimación de las expectativas de producción hasta la vigilancia del funcionamiento de la instalación una vez en operación, y que permite reducir la incertidumbre asociada su comportamiento y aumentar su fiabilidad a largo plazo, optimizando su funcionamiento. La coyuntura de la tecnología fotovoltaica ha evolucionado enormemente en los últimos años, haciendo que las centrales fotovoltaicas sean capaces de producir energía a unos precios totalmente competitivos en relación con otras fuentes de energía. Esto hace que aumente la exigencia sobre el funcionamiento y la fiabilidad de estas instalaciones. Para cumplir con dicha exigencia, es necesaria la adecuación de los procedimientos de control de calidad aplicados, así como el desarrollo de nuevos métodos que deriven en un conocimiento más completo del estado de las centrales, y que permitan mantener la vigilancia sobre las mismas a lo largo del tiempo. Además, los ajustados márgenes de explotación actuales requieren que durante la fase de diseño se disponga de métodos de estimación de la producción que comporten la menor incertidumbre posible. La propuesta de control de calidad presentada en este trabajo parte de protocolos anteriores orientados a la fase de puesta en marcha de una instalación fotovoltaica, y las complementa con métodos aplicables a la fase de operación, prestando especial atención a los principales problemas que aparecen en las centrales a lo largo de su vida útil (puntos calientes, impacto de la suciedad, envejecimiento…). Además, incorpora un protocolo de vigilancia y análisis del funcionamiento de las instalaciones a partir de sus datos de monitorización, que incluye desde la comprobación de la validez de los propios datos registrados hasta la detección y el diagnóstico de fallos, y que permite un conocimiento automatizado y detallado de las plantas. Dicho procedimiento está orientado a facilitar las tareas de operación y mantenimiento, de manera que se garantice una alta disponibilidad de funcionamiento de la instalación. De vuelta a la fase inicial de cálculo de las expectativas de producción, se utilizan los datos registrados en las centrales para llevar a cabo una mejora de los métodos de estimación de la radiación, que es la componente que más incertidumbre añade al proceso de modelado. El desarrollo y la aplicación de este procedimiento de control de calidad se han llevado a cabo en 39 grandes centrales fotovoltaicas, que totalizan una potencia de 250 MW, distribuidas por varios países de Europa y América Latina. ABSTRACT This thesis presents a comprehensive quality control procedure to be applied in photovoltaic plants, which covers from the initial phase of energy production estimation to the monitoring of the installation performance, once it is in operation. This protocol allows reducing the uncertainty associated to the photovoltaic plants behaviour and increases their long term reliability, therefore optimizing their performance. The situation of photovoltaic technology has drastically evolved in recent years, making photovoltaic plants capable of producing energy at fully competitive prices, in relation to other energy sources. This fact increases the requirements on the performance and reliability of these facilities. To meet this demand, it is necessary to adapt the quality control procedures and to develop new methods able to provide a more complete knowledge of the state of health of the plants, and able to maintain surveillance on them over time. In addition, the current meagre margins in which these installations operate require procedures capable of estimating energy production with the lower possible uncertainty during the design phase. The quality control procedure presented in this work starts from previous protocols oriented to the commissioning phase of a photovoltaic system, and complete them with procedures for the operation phase, paying particular attention to the major problems that arise in photovoltaic plants during their lifetime (hot spots, dust impact, ageing...). It also incorporates a protocol to control and analyse the installation performance directly from its monitoring data, which comprises from checking the validity of the recorded data itself to the detection and diagnosis of failures, and which allows an automated and detailed knowledge of the PV plant performance that can be oriented to facilitate the operation and maintenance of the installation, so as to ensure a high operation availability of the system. Back to the initial stage of calculating production expectations, the data recorded in the photovoltaic plants is used to improved methods for estimating the incident irradiation, which is the component that adds more uncertainty to the modelling process. The development and implementation of the presented quality control procedure has been carried out in 39 large photovoltaic plants, with a total power of 250 MW, located in different European and Latin-American countries.

Location of bioelectricity plants in the Madrid Community based on triticale crop: a multicriteria methodology

This paper presents a work whose objective is, first, to quantify the potential of the triticale biomass existing in each of the agricultural regions in the Madrid Community through a crop simulation model based on regression techniques and multiple correlation. Second, a methodology for defining which area has the best conditions for the installation of electricity plants from biomass has been described and applied. The study used a methodology based on compromise programming in a discrete multicriteria decision method (MDM) context. To make a ranking, the following criteria were taken into account: biomass potential, electric power infrastructure, road networks, protected spaces, and urban nuclei surfaces. The results indicate that, in the case of the Madrid Community, the Campiña region is the most suitable for setting up plants powered by biomass. A minimum of 17,339.9 tons of triticale will be needed to satisfy the requirements of a 2.2 MW power plant. The minimum range of action for obtaining the biomass necessary in Campiña region would be 6.6 km around the municipality of Algete, based on Geographic Information Systems. The total biomass which could be made available in considering this range in this region would be 18,430.68 t.

Pre-investigation of water electrolysis for flexible energy storage at large scales: the case of the Spanish power system

This report analyzes the basis of hydrogen and power integration strategies, by using water electrolysis processes as a means of flexible energy storage at large scales. It is a prospective study, where the scope is to describe the characteristics of current power systems (like the generation technologies, load curves and grid constraints), and define future scenarios of hydrogen for balancing the electrical grids, considering the efficiency, economy and easiness of operations. We focus in the "Spanish case", which is a good example for planning the transition from a power system holding large reserve capacities, high penetration of renewable energies and limited interconnections, to a more sustainable energy system being capable to optimize the volumes, the regulation modes, the utilization ratios and the impacts of the installations. Thus, we explore a novel aspect of the "hydrogen economy" which is based in the potentials of existing power systems and the properties of hydrogen as energy carrier, by considering the electricity generation and demand globally and determining the optimal size and operation of the hydrogen production processes along the country; e.g. the cost production of hydrogen becomes viable for a base-load scenario with 58 TWh/year of power surplus at 0.025 V/kWh, and large number electrolyzer plants (50 MW) running in variable mode (1-12 kA/m2)

A power law for cells

Darwin observed that multiple, lowly organized, rudimentary, or exaggerated structures show increased relative variability. However, the cellular basis for these laws has never been investigated. Some animals, such as the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, are famous for having organs that possess the same number of cells in all individuals, a property known as eutely. But for most multicellular creatures, the extent of cell number variability is unknown. Here we estimate variability in organ cell number for a variety of animals, plants, slime moulds, and volvocine algae. We find that the mean and variance in cell number obey a power law with an exponent of 2, comparable to Taylor's law in ecological processes. Relative cell number variability, as measured by the coefficient of variation, differs widely across taxa and tissues, but is generally independent of mean cell number among homologous tissues of closely related species. We show that the power law for cell number variability can be explained by stochastic branching process models based on the properties of cell lineages. We also identify taxa in which the precision of developmental control appears to have evolved. We propose that the scale independence of relative cell number variability is maintained by natural selection.

Big business in the Russian economy and politics under Putin's rule; The Russian power industry shortly before reforms; Ukrainian metallurgy: the economic link in the oligarchical system. OSW Study 5/2002

Big business in Russia: The pace of ownership transfer in the Russian economy has speeded up considerably over the last year. There has been a significant rise in the number of acquisitions of whole enterprises, and large blocks of shares in individual firms and plants. Similarly the number of mergers, bankruptcies and take-overs of failing firms by their strongest competitors has grown. The Russian power industry: This study is an overview of the current condition and principles on which the Russian power sector has been functioning so far. This analysis has been carried out against the background of the changes that have been taking place in the sector since the beginning of the 1990s. This text also contains a description of guidelines and progress made so far in implementing the reform of the Russian power industry, the draft of which was adopted by the government of the Russian Federation in summer 2001. However, the purpose of this study is not an economic analysis of the draft, but an attempt to present the political conditions and possible consequences of the transformations carried out in the Russian power sector. The final part attempts to evaluate the possibilities and threats related to the implementation of the reform in its present shape. Ukrainian metallurgy: The metallurgic sector, like the east-west transit of energy raw materials, is a strategic source of revenue for Ukraine. Over the last ten years, this sector has become Kiev's most important source of foreign currency inflows, accounting for over 40 per cent of its total export revenues. The growth of metallurgic production, which has continued almost without interruption since the mid-1990s, has contributed considerably to the increase in GDP which Ukraine showed in 2000, for the first time in its independent history.

Gas demand for power generation peaked as early as 2010. CEPS Commentary, 12 February 2016

The outlook for natural gas demand is often considered bright, especially for gas used to generate electricity. This is because gas is the cleanest of all fossil fuels. The carbon intensity of modern gas-fired power stations is less than 50% that of modern coal plants. Moreover, gas-fired units are well-suited to follow rapid swings in supply and demand due to their flexibility. In the future, these balancing tasks will become more and more important given the intermittent character of the supply of wind and solar power. Gas seems to hold out the promise of being a key pillar of the energy transition and the perfect partner of renewables. Given the EU’s long-term climate policy goals, however, there is strong evidence that demand for gas for purposes of power generation peaked as early as 2010.

Isotopic power and thermionic conversion : a literature search /

Included are 88 references on thermionic conversion of heat energy and the use of radioisotopes as power sources. References on thermoelectric conversion are included if the primary energy source is a radioisotope.

Experiments upon vegetables, discovering their great power of purifying the common air in the sun-shine, and of injuring it in the shade and at night : To which is joined, a new method of examining the accurate degree of salubrity of the atmosphere /

Tail-pieces; side notes.

Sensitive plants and noxious weeds of the Mt. Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest /

"R 6-MBS-02-1991"--P. [4] of cover.

A techno-economic assessment of the use of fast pyrolysis bio-oil from UK energy crops in the production of electricity and combined heat and power

This thesis investigates the cost of electricity generation using bio-oil produced by the fast pyrolysis of UK energy crops. The study covers cost from the farm to the generator’s terminals. The use of short rotation coppice willow and miscanthus as feedstocks was investigated. All costs and performance data have been taken from published papers, reports or web sites. Generation technologies are compared at scales where they have proved economic burning other fuels, rather than at a given size. A pyrolysis yield model was developed for a bubbling fluidised bed fast pyrolysis reactor from published data to predict bio-oil yields and pyrolysis plant energy demands. Generation using diesel engines, gas turbines in open and combined cycle (CCGT) operation and steam cycle plants was considered. The use of bio-oil storage to allow the pyrolysis and generation plants to operate independently of each other was investigated. The option of using diesel generators and open cycle gas turbines for combined heat and power was examined. The possible cost reductions that could be expected through learning if the technology is widely implemented were considered. It was found that none of the systems analysed would be viable without subsidy, but with the current Renewable Obligation Scheme CCGT plants in the 200 to 350 MWe range, super-critical coal fired boilers co-fired with bio-oil, and groups of diesel engine based CHP schemes supplied by a central pyrolysis plant would be viable. It was found that the cost would reduce with implementation and the planting of more energy crops but some subsidy would still be needed to make the plants viable.

Synthesis and thermoelectric properties of Yb-doped Ca0.9-x Yb x La0.1MnO3 ceramics

The microstructure and thermoelectric properties of Yb-doped Ca0.9-x Yb x La0.1 MnO3 (0 ≤ x ≤ 0.05) ceramics prepared by using the Pechini method derived powders have been investigated. X-ray diffraction analysis has shown that all samples exhibit single phase with orthorhombic perovskite structure. All ceramic samples possess high relative densities, ranging from 97.04% to 98.65%. The Seebeck coefficient is negative, indicating n-type conduction in all samples. The substitution of Yb for Ca leads to a marked decrease in the electrical resistivity, along with a moderate decrease in the absolute value of the Seebeck coefficient. The highest power factor is obtained for the sample with x = 0.05. The electrical conduction in these compounds is due to electrons hopping between Mn3+ and Mn4+, which is enhanced by increasing Yb content.

A probabilistic approach to the estimation of regional photovoltaic power generation using meteorological data

In Germany the upscaling algorithm is currently the standard approach for evaluating the PV power produced in a region. This method involves spatially interpolating the normalized power of a set of reference PV plants to estimate the power production by another set of unknown plants. As little information on the performances of this method could be found in the literature, the first goal of this thesis is to conduct an analysis of the uncertainty associated to this method. It was found that this method can lead to large errors when the set of reference plants has different characteristics or weather conditions than the set of unknown plants and when the set of reference plants is small. Based on these preliminary findings, an alternative method is proposed for calculating the aggregate power production of a set of PV plants. A probabilistic approach has been chosen by which a power production is calculated at each PV plant from corresponding weather data. The probabilistic approach consists of evaluating the power for each frequently occurring value of the parameters and estimating the most probable value by averaging these power values weighted by their frequency of occurrence. Most frequent parameter sets (e.g. module azimuth and tilt angle) and their frequency of occurrence have been assessed on the basis of a statistical analysis of parameters of approx. 35 000 PV plants. It has been found that the plant parameters are statistically dependent on the size and location of the PV plants. Accordingly, separate statistical values have been assessed for 14 classes of nominal capacity and 95 regions in Germany (two-digit zip-code areas). The performances of the upscaling and probabilistic approaches have been compared on the basis of 15 min power measurements from 715 PV plants provided by the German distribution system operator LEW Verteilnetz. It was found that the error of the probabilistic method is smaller than that of the upscaling method when the number of reference plants is sufficiently large (>100 reference plants in the case study considered in this chapter). When the number of reference plants is limited (<50 reference plants for the considered case study), it was found that the proposed approach provides a noticeable gain in accuracy with respect to the upscaling method.

Phenolic compounds and antioxidant capacity of three thymus species plants

Thymus plants comprise distinct species with claimed health properties [1], commonly associated to their essential oils and phenolic compounds. Albeit that, the phenolic composition and the biological activities of many Thymus species remain unclear. This work aimed to elucidate the phenolic composition and antioxidant properties of aqueous extracts from Thymus herba barona, Thymus caespetitus and Thymus fragrantissimus. The aqueous extracts of the three Thymus species were evaluated for their total phenolic compounds by an adaptation of the Folin-Ciocalteu method [2], and individual phenolic compounds were identified by high performance liquid chromatography associated with electrospray mass spectrometry (HPLC-DAD-ESI-MSn) in the negative mode. The antioxidant activity of each extract was carried out by DPPH● scavenging assay and ferric reducing antioxidant power assays [3]. Total phenolic compounds in the three extracts ranged from 236±27 (T. caespetitus) to 273±17 μg GAE/mg (T. fragrantissimus). Similarly to other Thymus species [1,4], these extracts were rich in caffeic acid derivatives (characteristic UV spectra maxima at 290 and 328 nm) and mainly composed of rosmarinic acid (MW 360). Other caffeic acid derivatives included salvianolic acid K (MW 556) and 3′-O-(8″-Z-caffeoyl)rosmarinic acid (MW 538). High amounts of the flavone luteolin-O-glucuronide ([M-H]− at m/z 461→285) were found in T. caespetitus while the others species contained moderate amounts of this compound. T. herba barona, T. caespetitus and T. fragrantissimus extracts showed high DPPH radical scavenge ability (EC50 values 11.6±0.9, 13.8±0.6 and 10.9±1.2 μg/mL respectively), as well as high reducing power (EC50 values of 35.1±4.5, 39.3±2.7 and 32.4±4.3 μg/mL, respectively), that were comparable to those of reference compounds. This work is an important contribution for the phytochemical characterization and the antioxidant capacity of these three Thymus species.

Phenolic compounds and antioxidant capacity of three thymus species plants

Thymus plants comprise distinct species with claimed health properties [1], commonly associated to their essential oils and phenolic compounds. Albeit that, the phenolic composition and the biological activities of many Thymus species remain unclear. This work aimed to elucidate the phenolic composition and antioxidant properties of aqueous extracts from Thymus herba barona, Thymus caespetitus and Thymus fragrantissimus. The aqueous extracts of the three Thymus species were evaluated for their total phenolic compounds by an adaptation of the Folin-Ciocalteu method [2], and individual phenolic compounds were identified by high performance liquid chromatography associated with electrospray mass spectrometry (HPLC-DAD-ESI-MSn) in the negative mode. The antioxidant activity of each extract was carried out by DPPH● scavenging assay and ferric reducing antioxidant power assays [3]. Total phenolic compounds in the three extracts ranged from 236±27 (T. caespetitus) to 273±17 μg GAE/mg (T. fragrantissimus). Similarly to other Thymus species [1,4], these extracts were rich in caffeic acid derivatives (characteristic UV spectra maxima at 290 and 328 nm) and mainly composed of rosmarinic acid (MW 360). Other caffeic acid derivatives included salvianolic acid K (MW 556) and 3′-O-(8″-Z-caffeoyl)rosmarinic acid (MW 538). High amounts of the flavone luteolin-O-glucuronide ([M-H]− at m/z 461→285) were found in T. caespetitus while the others species contained moderate amounts of this compound. T. herba barona, T. caespetitus and T. fragrantissimus extracts showed high DPPH radical scavenge ability (EC50 values 11.6±0.9, 13.8±0.6 and 10.9±1.2 μg/mL respectively), as well as high reducing power (EC50 values of 35.1±4.5, 39.3±2.7 and 32.4±4.3 μg/mL, respectively), that were comparable to those of reference compounds. This work is an important contribution for the phytochemical characterization and the antioxidant capacity of these three Thymus species.