875 resultados para Technological forecasting


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Organic agriculture is a sustainable cultivation ecologically, economically and socially. Several researches in organic agriculture have been made from technical perspectives, economic traits or related to ecological aspects. There are practically no investigations into the nature of the technology used in organic agriculture, especially from an ergonomic perspective. From the activity analysis, this study aimed to map the technology used in the production of organic vegetables. Properties producing organic vegetables were selected representing the State of Sao Paulo. It was applied an instrument (questionnaire and semi-structured interview) with their managers and it was made visual records to identify adaptations, innovations and technological demands that simultaneously minimize the workload and the difficulties in performing the tasks and increase work productivity. For some of the technological innovations a digital scanner was used to generate a virtual solid model to facilitate its redesign and virtual prototyping. The main results show that organic farmers have little technology in product form. The main innovations that enable competitive advantage or allow higher labor productivity occur in the form of processes, organization and marketing.

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This paper is the first part of an extensive work focusing the technological development of steel fiber reinforced concrete pipes (FRCP). Here is presented and discussed the experimental campaign focusing the test procedure and the mechanical behavior obtained for each of the dosages of fiber used. In the second part ("Steel fiber reinforced concrete pipes. Part 2: Numerical model to simulate the crushing test"), the aspects of FRCP numerical modeling are presented and analyzed using the same experimental results in order to be validated. This study was carried out trying to reduce some uncertainties related to FRCP performance and provide a better condition to the use of these components. In this respect, an experimental study was carried out using sewage concrete pipes in full scale as specimens. The diameter of the specimens was 600 mm, and they had a length of 2500 mm. The pipes were reinforced with traditional bars and different contents of steel fibers in order to compare their performance through the crushing test. Two test procedures were used in that sense. In the 1st Series, the diameter displacement was monitored by the use of two LVDTs positioned at both extremities of the pipes. In the 2nd Series, just one LVDT is positioned at the spigot. The results shown a more rigidity response of the pipe during tests when the displacements were measured at the enlarged section of the socket. The fiber reinforcement was very effective, especially when low level of displacement was imposed to the FRCP. At this condition, the steel fibers showed an equivalent performance to superior class pipes made with traditional reinforced. The fiber content of 40 kg/m3 provided a hardening behavior for the FRCP, and could be considered as equivalent to the critical volume in this condition.

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[EN] Background: Spain has gone from a surplus to a shortage of medical doctors in very few years. Medium and long-term planning for health professionals has become a high priority for health authorities. Methods: We created a supply and demand/need simulation model for 43 medical specialties using system dynamics. The model includes demographic, education and labour market variables. Several scenarios were defined. Variables controllable by health planners can be set as parameters to simulate different scenarios. The model calculates the supply and the deficit or surplus. Experts set the ratio of specialists needed per 1000 inhabitants with a Delphi method. Results: In the scenario of the baseline model with moderate population growth, the deficit of medical specialists will grow from 2% at present (2800 specialists) to 14.3% in 2025 (almost 21 000). The specialties with the greatest medium-term shortages are Anesthesiology, Orthopedic and Traumatic Surgery, Pediatric Surgery, Plastic Aesthetic and Reparatory Surgery, Family and Community Medicine, Pediatrics, Radiology, and Urology. Conclusions: The model suggests the need to increase the number of students admitted to medical school. Training itineraries should be redesigned to facilitate mobility among specialties. In the meantime, the need to make more flexible the supply in the short term is being filled by the immigration of physicians from new members of the European Union and from Latin America.

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Questo lavoro di tesi è stato suddiviso in tre parti. L’argomento principale è stato lo “Studio della componente antiossidante di oli ottenuti da olive mediante l’utilizzo di diversi sistemi e parametri tecnologici”. E’ ben noto come la qualità ossidativa di un olio di oliva dipenda oltre che dalla sua composizione in acidi grassi, dalla presenza di composti caratterizzati da un elevata attività antiossidante, ovvero le sostanze fenoliche. I composti fenolici contribuiscono quindi in maniera preponderante alla shelf life dell’olio extravergine di oliva. Inoltre sono state riscontrate delle forti correlazione tra alcune di queste sostanze e gli attributi sensoriali positivi di amaro e piccante. E’ poi da sottolineare come il potere antiossidante dei composti fenolici degli oli vergini di oliva, sia stato negli ultimi anni oggetto di considerevole interesse, poiché correlato alla protezione da alcune patologie come ad esempio quelle vascolari, degenerative e tumorali. Il contenuto delle sostanze fenoliche negli oli di oliva dipende da diversi fattori: cultivar, metodo di coltivazione, grado di maturazione delle olive e ovviamente dalle operazioni tecnologiche poiché possono variare il quantitativo di questi composti estratto. Alla luce di quanto appena detto abbiamo valutato l’influenza dei fattori agronomici (metodi di agricoltura biologica, integrata e convenzionale) e tecnologici (riduzione della temperatura della materia prima, aggiunta di coadiuvanti in fase di frangitura e di gramolatura, confronto tra tre oli extravergini di oliva ottenuti mediante diversi sistemi tecnologici) sul contenuto in composti fenolici di oli edibili ottenuti da olive (paper 1-3-4). Oltre alle sostanze fenoliche, negli oli di oliva sono presenti altri composti caratterizzati da proprietà chimiche e nutrizionali, tra questi vi sono i fitosteroli, ovvero gli steroli tipici del mondo vegetale, che rappresentano la frazione dell’insaponificabile quantitativamente più importante dopo gli idrocarburi. La composizione quali-quantitativa degli steroli di un olio di oliva è una delle caratteristiche analitiche più importanti nella valutazione della sua genuinità; infatti la frazione sterolica è significativamente diversa in funzione dell’origine botanica e perciò viene utilizzata per distinguere tra di loro gli oli e le loro miscele. Il principale sterolo nell’olio di oliva è il β- sitosterolo, la presenza di questo composto in quantità inferiore al 90% è un indice approssimativo dell’aggiunta di un qualsiasi altro olio. Il β-sitosterolo è una sostanza importante dal punto di vista della salute, poiché si oppone all’assorbimento del colesterolo. Mentre in letteratura si trovano numerosi lavori relativi al potere antiossidante di una serie di composti presenti nell’olio vergine di oliva (i già citati polifenoli, ma anche carotenoidi e tocoferoli) e ricerche che dimostrano invece come altri composti possano promuovere l’ossidazione dei lipidi, per quanto riguarda il potere antiossidante degli steroli e dei 4- metilsteroli, vi sono ancora poche informazioni. Per questo è stata da noi valutata la composizione sterolica in oli extravergini di oliva ottenuti con diverse tecnologie di estrazione e l’influenza di questa sostanza sulla loro stabilità ossidativa (paper 2). E’ stato recentemente riportato in letteratura come lipidi cellulari evidenziati attraverso la spettroscopia di risonanza nucleare magnetica (NMR) rivestano una importanza strategica da un punto di vista funzionale e metabolico. Questi lipidi, da un lato un lato sono stati associati allo sviluppo di cellule neoplastiche maligne e alla morte cellulare, dall’altro sono risultati anche messaggeri di processi benigni quali l’attivazione e la proliferazione di un normale processo di crescita cellulare. Nell’ambito di questa ricerca è nata una collaborazione tra il Dipartimento di Biochimica “G. Moruzzi” ed il Dipartimento di Scienze degli Alimenti dell’Università di Bologna. Infatti, il gruppo di lipochimica del Dipartimento di Scienze degli Alimenti, a cui fa capo il Prof. Giovanni Lercker, da sempre si occupa dello studio delle frazioni lipidiche, mediante le principali tecniche cromatografiche. L’obiettivo di questa collaborazione è stato quello di caratterizzare la componente lipidica totale estratta dai tessuti renali umani sani e neoplastici, mediante l’utilizzo combinato di diverse tecniche analitiche: la risonanza magnetica nucleare (1H e 13C RMN), la cromatografia su strato sottile (TLC), la cromatografia liquida ad alta prestazione (HPLC) e la gas cromatografia (GC) (paper 5-6-7)

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[EN]This paper describes a wildfi re forecasting application based on a 3D virtual environment and a fi re simulation engine. A novel open source framework is presented for the development of 3D graphics applications over large geographic areas, off ering high performance 3D visualization and powerful interaction tools for the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) community. The application includes a remote module that allows simultaneous connection of several users for monitoring a real wildfi re event.

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A new methodology is being devised for ensemble ocean forecasting using distributions of the surface wind field derived from a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). The ocean members are forced with samples from the posterior distribution of the wind during the assimilation of satellite and in-situ ocean data. The initial condition perturbations are then consistent with the best available knowledge of the ocean state at the beginning of the forecast and amplify the ocean response to uncertainty only in the forcing. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) surface winds are also used to generate a reference ocean ensemble to evaluate the performance of the BHM method that proves to be eective in concentrating the forecast uncertainty at the ocean meso-scale. An height month experiment of weekly BHM ensemble forecasts was performed in the framework of the operational Mediterranean Forecasting System. The statistical properties of the ensemble are compared with model errors throughout the seasonal cycle proving the existence of a strong relationship between forecast uncertainties due to atmospheric forcing and the seasonal cycle.

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This PhD thesis describes set up of technological models for obtaining high health value foods and ingredients that preserve the final product characteristics as well as enrich with nutritional components. In particular, the main object of my research has been Virgin Olive Oil (VOO) and its important antioxidant compounds which differentiate it from all other vegetables oils. It is well known how the qualitative and quantitative presence of phenolic molecules extracted from olives during oil production is fundamental for its oxidative and nutritional quality. For this purpose, agronomic and technological conditions of its production have been investigated. It has also been examined how this fraction can be better preserved during storage. Moreover, its relation with VOO sensorial characteristics and its interaction with a protein in emulsion foods have also been studied. Finally, an experimental work was carried out to determine the antioxidative and heat resistance properties of a new antioxidant (EVS-OL) when used for high temperature frying such as is typically employed for the preparation of french fries. Results of the scientific research have been submitted for a publication and some data has already been published in national and international scientific journals.

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[EN]In this paper we introduce a new methodology for wind field forecasting over complex terrain. The idea is to use the predictions of the HARMONIE mesoscale model as the input data for an adaptive finite element mass consistent wind model [1, 2]. A description of the HARMONIE Non-Hydrostatic Dynamics can be found in [3]. The HARMONIE results (obtained with a maximum resolution about 1 Km) are refined in a local scale (about a few meters)...

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[EN]Ensemble forecasting [1] is a methodology to deal with uncertainties in the numerical wind prediction. In this work we propose to apply ensemble methods to the adaptive wind forecasting model presented in [2]. The wind _eld forecasting is based on a mass-consistent model and a log-linear wind pro_le using as input data the resulting forecast wind from Harmonie [3], a Non-Hydrostatic Dynamic model. The mass-consistent model parameters are estimated by using genetic algorithms [4]. The mesh is generated using the meccano method [5] and adapted to the geometry. The main source of uncertainties in this model is the parameter estimation and the in- trinsic uncertainties of the Harmonie Model…

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[EN]Ensemble forecasting is a methodology to deal with uncertainties in the numerical wind prediction. In this work we propose to apply ensemble methods to the adaptive wind forecasting model presented in. The wind field forecasting is based on a mass-consistent model and a log-linear wind profile using as input data the resulting forecast wind from Harmonie, a Non-Hydrostatic Dynamic model used experimentally at AEMET with promising results. The mass-consistent model parameters are estimated by using genetic algorithms. The mesh is generated using the meccano method and adapted to the geometry…

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Communication and coordination are two key-aspects in open distributed agent system, being both responsible for the system’s behaviour integrity. An infrastructure capable to handling these issues, like TuCSoN, should to be able to exploit modern technologies and tools provided by fast software engineering contexts. Thesis aims to demonstrate TuCSoN infrastructure’s abilities to cope new possibilities, hardware and software, offered by mobile technology. The scenarios are going to configure, are related to the distributed nature of multi-agent systems where an agent should be located and runned just on a mobile device. We deal new mobile technology frontiers concerned with smartphones using Android operating system by Google. Analysis and deployment of a distributed agent-based system so described go first to impact with quality and quantity considerations about available resources. Engineering issue at the base of our research is to use TuCSoN against to reduced memory and computing capability of a smartphone, without the loss of functionality, efficiency and integrity for the infrastructure. Thesis work is organized on two fronts simultaneously: the former is the rationalization process of the available hardware and software resources, the latter, totally orthogonal, is the adaptation and optimization process about TuCSoN architecture for an ad-hoc client side release.

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Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).