Be rich or don’t be sick: Estimating Vietnamese patients’ risk of falling into destitution

This paper represents the first research attempt to estimate the probabilities for Vietnamese patients to fall into destitution facing financial burdens occurring during their curative stay in hospital. The study models the risk against such factors as level of insurance coverage, location of patient, costliness of treatment, among others. The results show that very high probabilities of destitution, approximately 70%, apply to a large group of patients, who are nonresident, poor and ineligible for significant insurance coverage. There is also a probability of 58% that low-income patients who are seriously ill and face higher health care costs would quit their treatment. These facts will put Vietnamese government’s ambitious plan of increasing both universal coverage (UC) to 100% of expenditure and rate of UC beneficiaries to 100% at a serious test. The study also raises issues of asymmetric information and alternative financing options for the poor, who are most exposed to risk of destitution, following market-based health care reforms.

Estimating the flow rate capacity of an overturned rail carriage end exit in the presence of smoke

While incidents requiring the rapid egress of passengers from trains are infrequent, perhaps the most challenging scenario for passengers involves the evacuation from an overturned carriage subjected to fire. In this paper we attempt to estimate the flow rate capacity of an overturned rail carriage end exit. This was achieved through two full-scale evacuation experiments, in one of which the participants were subjected to non-toxic smoke. The experiments were conducted as part of a pilot study into evacuation from rail carriages. In reviewing the experimental results, it should be noted that only a single run of each trial was undertaken with a limited — though varied — population. As a result it is not possible to test the statistical significance of the evacuation times quoted and so the results should be treated as indicative rather than definitive. The carriage used in the experiments was a standard class Mark IID which, while an old carriage design, shares many features with those carriages commonly found on the British rail network. In the evacuation involving smoke, the carriage end exit was found to achieve an average flow rate capacity of approximately 5.0 persons/min. The average flow rate capacity of the exit without smoke was found to be approximately 9.2 persons/min. It was noted that the presence of smoke tended to reduce significantly the exit flow rate. Due to the nature of the experimental conditions, these flow rates are considered optimistic. Finally, the authors make several recommendations for improving survivability in rail accidents. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Experience of using a CFD code for estimating the noise generated by gusts along the sun-roof of a car

The problem to be examined here is the fluctuating pressure distribution along the open cavity of the sun-roof at the top of a car compartment due to gusts passing over the sun-roof. The aim of this test is to investigate the capability of a typical commercial CFD package, PHOENICS, in recognising pressure fluctuations occurring in an important automotive industrial problem. In particular to examine the accuracy of transporting pulsatory gusts traveling along the main flow through the use of finite volume methods with higher order schemes in the numercial solutins of the unsteady compressible Navier-Stokes equations. The Helmholtz equation is used to solve the sound distribution inside the car compartment, resulting from the externally induced fluctuations.

Statistical Procedure For Estimating Grey Seal Pup Production From A Single Census

The variable start and duration of the Grey seal breeding season makes the estimation of total pup production from a single census very difficult. Classifying the count into morphological age classes enables the form and timing of the birth rate curve and estimates of pup mortality rates to be elucidated. A simulation technique is described which enables the duration of each morphological stage to be determined from a series of such classified counts taken over one season. A further statistical technique uses these estimates to calculate the mean timing and duration of the breeding season from a single classified count taken from similar populations in subsequent years. This information allows total pup production to be calculated for any appropriate breeding colony. Some guidance is given as to the optimal timing of that single census which would yield the best estimate of production, although the precise date is not critical to the success of the technique. Results from single census estimates obtained in this way are compared with known production data from more detailed surveys for a number of different colonies.