Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heatrelated mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heatrelated mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of the daily and extreme temperatures from HadCM3, which demonstrates that the estimates of future heat-related mortality for Dallas and Lisbon may be overestimated due to positive climate model bias. Likewise, estimates for Boston and London may be underestimated due to negative climate model bias. Finally, we briefly consider uncertainties in the impacts associated with greenhouse gas emissions and acclimatisation. The uncertainties in the mortality impacts due to different emissions scenarios of greenhouse gases in the future varied considerably by location. Allowing for acclimatisation to an extra 2°C in mean temperatures reduced future heat-related mortality by approximately half that of no acclimatisation in each city.

Projected impacts on heat-related mortality from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change

The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of changing temperature variability with climate change in assessments of future heat-related mortality. Previous studies have only considered changes in the mean temperature. Here we present estimates of heat-related mortality resulting from climate change for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney. They are based on climate change scenarios for the 2080s (2070-2099) and the temperature-mortality (t-m) models constructed and validated in Gosling et al. (2007). We propose a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality that considers both changes in the mean and variability of the temperature distribution.

Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 1: model construction and validation

Heat waves are expected to increase in frequency and magnitude with climate change. The first part of a study to produce projections of the effect of future climate change on heat-related mortality is presented. Separate city-specific empirical statistical models that quantify significant relationships between summer daily maximum temperature (T max) and daily heat-related deaths are constructed from historical data for six cities: Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London, and Sydney. ‘Threshold temperatures’ above which heat-related deaths begin to occur are identified. The results demonstrate significantly lower thresholds in ‘cooler’ cities exhibiting lower mean summer temperatures than in ‘warmer’ cities exhibiting higher mean summer temperatures. Analysis of individual ‘heat waves’ illustrates that a greater proportion of mortality is due to mortality displacement in cities with less sensitive temperature–mortality relationships than in those with more sensitive relationships, and that mortality displacement is no longer a feature more than 12 days after the end of the heat wave. Validation techniques through residual and correlation analyses of modelled and observed values and comparisons with other studies indicate that the observed temperature–mortality relationships are represented well by each of the models. The models can therefore be used with confidence to examine future heat-related deaths under various climate change scenarios for the respective cities (presented in Part 2).

The effects of seed mix and management on the abundance of desirable and pernicious unsown species in arable buffer strip communities

Buffer strips are refuges for a variety of plants providing resources, such as pollen, nectar and seeds, for higher trophic levels, including invertebrates, mammals and birds. Margins can also harbour plant species that are potentially injurious to the adjacent arable crop (undesirable species). Sowing perennial species in non-cropped buffer strips can reduce weed incidence, but limits the abundance of annuals with the potential to support wider biodiversity (desirable species). We investigated the responses of unsown plant species present in buffer strips established with three different seed mixes managed annually with three contrasting management regimes (cutting, sward scarification and selective graminicide). Sward scarification had the strongest influence on the unsown desirable (e.g. Sonchus spp.) and unsown pernicious (e.g. Elytrigia repens) species, and was generally associated with higher cover values of these species. However, abundances of several desirable weed species, in particular Poa annua, were not promoted by scarification. The treatments of cutting and graminicide tended to have negative impacts on the unsown species, except for Cirsium vulgare, which increased with graminicide application. Differences in unsown species cover between seed mixes were minimal, although the grass-only mix was more susceptible to establishment by C. vulgare and Galium aparine than the two grass and forb mixes. Annual scarification can enable desirable annuals and sown perennials to co-exist, however, this practice can also promote pernicious species, and so is unlikely to be widely adopted as a management tool in its current form.

The origin, molecular regulation and therapeutic potential of myogenic stem cell populations

Satellite cells, originating in the embryonic dermamyotome, reside beneath the myofibre of mature adult skeletal muscle and constitute the tissue-specific stem cell population. Recent advances following the identification of markers for these cells (including Pax7, Myf5, c-Met and CD34) (CD, cluster of differentiation; c-Met, mesenchymal epithelial transition factor) have led to a greater understanding of the role played by satellite cells in the regeneration of new skeletal muscle during growth and following injury. In response to muscle damage, satellite cells harbour the ability both to form myogenic precursors and to self-renew to repopulate the stem cell niche following myofibre damage. More recently, other stem cell populations including bone marrow stem cells, skeletal muscle side population cells and mesoangioblasts have also been shown to have myogenic potential in culture, and to be able to form skeletal muscle myofibres in vivo and engraft into the satellite cell niche. These cell types, along with satellite cells, have shown potential when used as a therapy for skeletal muscle wasting disorders where the intrinsic stem cell population is genetically unable to repair non-functioning muscle tissue. Accurate understanding of the mechanisms controlling satellite cell lineage progression and self-renewal as well as the recruitment of other stem cell types towards the myogenic lineage is crucial if we are to exploit the power of these cells in combating myopathic conditions. Here we highlight the origin, molecular regulation and therapeutic potential of all the major cell types capable of undergoing myogenic differentiation and discuss their potential therapeutic application.

Diverse mariner-like elements in fig wasps

Mariner transposable elements are widespread and diverse in insects. We screened 10 species of fig wasps (Hymenoptera: Agaonidae) for mariner elements. All 10 species harbour a large diversity of mariner elements, most of which have interrupted reading frames in the transposase gene region, suggesting that they are inactive and ancient. We sequenced two full-length mariner elements and found evidence to suggest that they are inserted in the genome at a conserved region shared by other hymenopteran taxa. The association between mariner elements and fig wasps is old and dominated by vertical transmission, suggesting that these 'selfish genetic elements' have evolved to impart only very low costs to their hosts.

Variation in the ability of human influenza A viruses to induce and inhibit the IFN-beta pathway

We investigated the ability of a selection of human influenza A viruses, including recent clinical isolates, to induce IFN-beta production in cultured cell lines. In contrast to the well-characterized laboratory strain A/PR/8/34, several, but not all, recent isolates of H3N2 viruses resulted in moderate IFN-beta stimulation. Through the generation of recombinant viruses, we were able to show that this is not due to a loss of the ability of the NS1 genes to suppress IFN-beta induction; indeed, the NS1 genes behaved similarly with respect to their abilities to block dsRNA signaling. Interestingly, replication of A/Sydney/5/97 virus was less Susceptible to pre-treatment with IFN-alpha than the other viruses. In contrast to the universal effect on dsRNA signaling, we noted differences in the effect of NS1 proteins on expression of interferon stimulated genes and also genes induced by a distinct pathway. The majority of NS1 proteins blocked expression From both IFN-dependent and TNF-dependent promoters by an apparent post-transcriptional mechanism. The NS1 gene of A/PR/8/34 NS1 did not confer these blocks. We noted striking differences in the Cellular localization of different influenza A virus NS1 proteins during infection, which might explain differences in biological activity. (C) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Semiotic modelling for complex enterprise systems

An enterprise is viewed as a complex system which can be engineered to accomplish organisational objectives. Systems analysis and modelling will enable to the planning and development of the enterprise and IT systems. Many IT systems design methods focus on functional and non-functional requirements of the IT systems. Most methods are normally capable of one but leave out other aspects. Analysing and modelling of both business and IT systems may often have to call on techniques from various suites of methods which may be placed on different philosophic and methodological underpinnings. Coherence and consistency between the analyses are hard to ensure. This paper introduces the Problem Articulation Method (PAM) which facilitates the design of an enterprise system infrastructure on which an IT system is built. Outcomes of this analysis represent requirements which can be further used for planning and designing a technical system. As a case study, a finance system, Agresso, for e-procurement has been used in this paper to illustrate the applicability of PAM in modelling complex systems.