Decision support system for vendor managed inventory supply chain:a case study

Vendor-managed inventory (VMI) is a widely used collaborative inventory management policy in which manufacturers manages the inventory of retailers and takes responsibility for making decisions related to the timing and extent of inventory replenishment. VMI partnerships help organisations to reduce demand variability, inventory holding and distribution costs. This study provides empirical evidence that significant economic benefits can be achieved with the use of a genetic algorithm (GA)-based decision support system (DSS) in a VMI supply chain. A two-stage serial supply chain in which retailers and their supplier are operating VMI in an uncertain demand environment is studied. Performance was measured in terms of cost, profit, stockouts and service levels. The results generated from GA-based model were compared to traditional alternatives. The study found that the GA-based approach outperformed traditional methods and its use can be economically justified in small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).

Identification, distribution, and probability of infection in sympatric gastropods by digenean parasites at Pa-hay-okee, Everglades National Park using molecules and morphology

In this study, I determined the identity, taxonomic placement, and distribution of digenetic trematodes parasitizing the snails Pomacea paludosa and Planorbella duryi at Pa-hay-okee, Everglades National Park. I also characterized temporal and geographic variation in the probability of parasite infection for these snails based on two years of sampling. Although studies indicate that digenean parasites may have important effects both on individual species and the structure of communities, there have been no studies of digenean parasitism on snails within the Everglades ecosystem. For example, the endangered Everglade Snail Kite, a specialist that feeds almost exclusively on Pomacea paludosa, and is known to be a definitive host of digenean parasites, may suffer direct and indirect effects from consumption of parasitized apple snails. Therefore, information on the diversity and abundance of parasites harbored in snail populations in the Everglades should be of considerable interest for management and conservation of wildlife. Juvenile digeneans (cercariae) representing 20 species were isolated from these two snails, representing a quadrupling of the number of species known. Species were characterized based on morphological, morphometric, and sequence data (18S rDNA, COI, and ITS). Species richness of shed cercariae from P. duryi was greater than P. paludosa, with 13 and 7 species respectively. These species represented 14 families. P. paludosa and P. duryi had no digenean species in common. Probability of digenean infection was higher for P. duryi than P. paludosa and adults showed a greater risk of infection than juveniles for both of these snails. Planorbella duryi showed variation in probability of infection between sampling sites and hydrological seasons. The number of unique combinations of multi-species infections was greatest among P. duryi individuals, while the overall percentage of multi-species infections was greatest in P. paludosa. Analyses of six frequently-observed multiple infections from P. duryi suggest the presence of negative interactions, positive interactions, and neutral associations between larval digeneans. These results should contribute to an understanding of the factors controlling the abundance and distribution of key species in the Everglades ecosystem and may in particular help in the management and recovery planning for the Everglade Snail Kite.

Submerged aquatic vegetation and bulrush in Lake Okeechobee as indicators of greater Everglades ecosystem restoration

Lake Okeechobee, Florida, located in the middle of the larger Kissimmee River-Lake Okeechobee-Everglades ecosystem in South Florida, serves a variety of ecosystem and water management functions including fish and wildlife habitat, flood control, water supply, and source water for environmental restoration. As a result, the ecological status of Lake Okeechobee plays a significant role in defining the overall success of the greater Everglades ecosystem restoration initiative. One of the major ecological indicators of Lake Okeechobee condition focuses on the near-shore and littoral zone regions as characterized by the distribution and abundance of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and giant bulrush (Scirpus californicus(C.A. Mey.) Steud.). The objective of this study is to present a stoplight restoration report card communication system, common to all 11 indicators noted in this special journal issue, as a means to convey the status of SAV and bulrush in Lake Okeechobee. The report card could be used by managers, policy makers, scientists and the public to effectively evaluate and distill information about the ecological status in South Florida. Our assessment of the areal distribution of SAV in Lake Okeechobee is based on a combination of empirical SAV monitoring and output from a SAV habitat suitability model. Bulrush status in the lake is related to a suitability index linked to adult survival and seedling establishment metrics. Overall, presentation of these performance metrics in a stoplight format enables an evaluation of how the status of two major components of Lake Okeechobee relates to the South Florida restoration program, and how the status of the lake influences restoration efforts in South Florida.

Distribution of Diatoms and Development of Diatom-Based Models for Inferring Salinity and Nutrient Concentrations in Florida Bay and Adjacent Coastal Wetlands of South Florida (USA)

The composition and distribution of diatom algae inhabiting estuaries and coasts of the subtropical Americas are poorly documented, especially relative to the central role diatoms play in coastal food webs and to their potential utility as sentinels of environmental change in these threatened ecosystems. Here, we document the distribution of diatoms among the diverse habitat types and long environmental gradients represented by the shallow topographic relief of the South Florida, USA, coastline. A total of 592 species were encountered from 38 freshwater, mangrove, and marine locations in the Everglades wetland and Florida Bay during two seasonal collections, with the highest diversity occurring at sites of high salinity and low water column organic carbon concentration (WTOC). Freshwater, mangrove, and estuarine assemblages were compositionally distinct, but seasonal differences were only detected in mangrove and estuarine sites where solute concentration differed greatly between wet and dry seasons. Epiphytic, planktonic, and sediment assemblages were compositionally similar, implying a high degree of mixing along the shallow, tidal, and storm-prone coast. The relationships between diatom taxa and salinity, water total phosphorus (WTP), water total nitrogen (WTN), and WTOC concentrations were determined and incorporated into weighted averaging partial least squares regression models. Salinity was the most influential variable, resulting in a highly predictive model (r apparent 2  = 0.97, r jackknife 2  = 0.95) that can be used in the future to infer changes in coastal freshwater delivery or sea-level rise in South Florida and compositionally similar environments. Models predicting WTN (r apparent 2  = 0.75, r jackknife 2  = 0.46), WTP (r apparent 2  = 0.75, r jackknife 2  = 0.49), and WTOC (r apparent 2  = 0.79, r jackknife 2  = 0.57) were also strong, suggesting that diatoms can provide reliable inferences of changes in solute delivery to the coastal ecosystem.

Data compilation on the biological response to ocean acidification: environmental and experimental context of data sets and related literature

The exponential growth of studies on the biological response to ocean acidification over the last few decades has generated a large amount of data. To facilitate data comparison, a data compilation hosted at the data publisher PANGAEA was initiated in 2008 and is updated on a regular basis (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.149999). By January 2015, a total of 581 data sets (over 4 000 000 data points) from 539 papers had been archived. Here we present the developments of this data compilation five years since its first description by Nisumaa et al. (2010). Most of study sites from which data archived are still in the Northern Hemisphere and the number of archived data from studies from the Southern Hemisphere and polar oceans are still relatively low. Data from 60 studies that investigated the response of a mix of organisms or natural communities were all added after 2010, indicating a welcomed shift from the study of individual organisms to communities and ecosystems. The initial imbalance of considerably more data archived on calcification and primary production than on other processes has improved. There is also a clear tendency towards more data archived from multifactorial studies after 2010. For easier and more effective access to ocean acidification data, the ocean acidification community is strongly encouraged to contribute to the data archiving effort, and help develop standard vocabularies describing the variables and define best practices for archiving ocean acidification data.

Distribution network reconfiguration validation with uncertain loads - network configuration determination and application

Automatic load transfer (ALT) on the 11 kV network is the process by which circuit breakers on the network are switched to form open points in order to feed load from different primary substations. Some of the potential benefits that may be gained from dynamically using ALT include maximising utilisation of existing assets, voltage regulation and reduced losses. One of the key issues, that has yet to be properly addressed in published research, is how to validate that the modelled benefits really exist. On an 11 kV distribution network where the load is continually changing and the load on each distribution substation is unlikely to be monitored - reduction in losses from moving the normally open point is particularly difficult to prove. This study proposes a method to overcome this problem and uses measured primary feeder data from two parts of the Western Power Distribution 11 kV Network under different configurations. The process of choosing the different configurations is based on a heuristic modelling method of locating minimum voltages to help reduce losses.

Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

An assessment of the influence of the industry distribution chain on the oxygen levels in commercial modified atmosphere packaged cheddar cheese using non-destructive oxygen sensor technology

The establishment and control of oxygen levels in packs of oxygen-sensitive food products such as cheese is imperative in order to maintain product quality over a determined shelf life. Oxygen sensors quantify oxygen concentrations within packaging using a reversible optical measurement process, and this non-destructive nature ensures the entire supply chain can be monitored and can assist in pinpointing negative issues pertaining to product packaging. This study was carried out in a commercial cheese packaging plant and involved the insertion of 768 sensors into 384 flow-wrapped cheese packs (two sensors per pack) that were flushed with 100% carbon dioxide prior to sealing. The cheese blocks were randomly assigned to two different storage groups to assess the effects of package quality, packaging process efficiency, and handling and distribution on package containment. Results demonstrated that oxygen levels increased in both experimental groups examined over the 30-day assessment period. The group subjected to a simulated industrial distribution route and handling procedures of commercial retailed cheese exhibited the highest level of oxygen detected on every day examined and experienced the highest rate of package failure. The study concluded that fluctuating storage conditions, product movement associated with distribution activities, and the possible presence of cheese-derived contaminants such as calcium lactate crystals were chief contributors to package failure.

San Francisco Coastal System grain size and geochemical data for sand provenance study

Over 150 million cubic meter of sand-sized sediment has disappeared from the central region of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half century. This enormous loss may reflect numerous anthropogenic influences, such as watershed damming, bay-fill development, aggregate mining, and dredging. The reduction in Bay sediment also appears to be linked to a reduction in sediment supply and recent widespread erosion of adjacent beaches, wetlands, and submarine environments. A unique, multi-faceted provenance study was performed to definitively establish the primary sources, sinks, and transport pathways of beach sized-sand in the region, thereby identifying the activities and processes that directly limit supply to the outer coast. This integrative program is based on comprehensive surficial sediment sampling of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System, including the seabed, Bay floor, area beaches, adjacent rock units, and major drainages. Analyses of sample morphometrics and biological composition (e.g., Foraminifera) were then integrated with a suite of tracers including 87Sr/86Sr and 143Nd/144Nd isotopes, rare earth elements, semi-quantitative X-ray diffraction mineralogy, and heavy minerals, and with process-based numerical modeling, in situ current measurements, and bedform asymmetry to robustly determine the provenance of beach-sized sand in the region.

Distribution of surface sediment properties along the Portuguese western margin

Organic matter contained in surface sediments from four regions on the western Portuguese shelf, which are influenced by coastal upwelling and fluvial input, was analysed with respect to elemental organic carbon (Corg) and nitrogen (Ntotal) content and isotopic carbon and nitrogen ratios (d13Corg, d15N). Corg/Ntotal weight ratios and d13Corg values are interpreted in terms of terrigenous or marine organic matter sources, supported by CaCO3 content. Organic matter in the shelf sediments is mainly of marine origin, with increasing terrigenous components only close to rivers and estuaries. In the northern shelf region the data indicates significant terrigenous supply by the Douro River. North of the Nazaré Canyon organic matter composition implies a mainly marine origin, with a higher terrestrial influence close to the canyon head. Organic matter composition in the central shelf region, which is dominated by the Tagus Estuary and the Tagus prodelta, reveals a change from a continental-type signature within the estuary to a more marine-type signature further to the west and south of the estuary mouth. In the southern region near Cape Sines the geochemical properties clearly reflect the marine origin of sedimentary organic matter. Sedimentary d15N values are interpreted to reflect various degrees of assimilation of seasonally upwelled nitrate, in relation to the upwelling centres. In the estuarine environment, inputs of agriculturally influenced dissolved inorganic nitrogen are reflected in the sediments. No evidence for N2-fixation or denitrification is found. On the central shelf north of the Nazaré canyon, sedimentary d15N values are close to marine d15NO3- and thus indicate a complete NO3- assimilation and N-limitation of marine production. Light d15N values in distal sediments off the Douro River mouth and in samples south of C. Sines reflect high NO3- supply and a close proximity to the seasonal upwelling centres. Particularly in sediments form the Sines region, light d15N values in southern samples reflect stronger upwelling further south.

Vegetation community and geochemistry in the Uummannaq District, West Greenland

Beach and salt marsh vegetation of the Uummannaq District, northern West Greenland (c. 70°15' N - 72° N, 49° W - 54° W) was studied 1998 according to the Braun-Blanquet phytosociological approach. Habitat analyses included soil chemistry. Such vegetation locally occurs and is not developed over extensive areas. On gravely stony beaches a Mertensia maritima ssp. maritima community occurs, while a Honckenya peploides var. diffusa community is confined to sandy beaches. The association Honckenyo diffusae-Elymetum mollis Thannh. 1975 is confined to sandy shore walls and low dunes. All vegetation types are assigned to the alliance Honckenyo- Elymion arenariae Tx. 1966, which again is a unit of the order Honckenyo- Elymetalia arenariae Tx. 1966, which is sub ordered to the class Honckenyo-Elymetea arenariae Tx. 1966. On fine sediments along sheltered coasts salt marsh vegetation is locally developed mainly on fiord deltas and outwash plains of small rivers and streams. A distinct zonation pattern in vegetation can be observed from the lower to upper salt marsh: Puccinellietum phryganodis Hadac 1946 association, Caricetum subspathaceae Hadac 1946 association, Caricetum ursinae Hadac 1946 association (all assigned to the alliance Puccinellion phryganodis Hadac 1946) and Festuco-Caricetum glareosae Nordh. 1954 association (assigned to the alliance Armerion maritimae Br.-Bl. et de Leeuw 1936). Both alliances are units of the order Glauco- Puccinellietalia Beeftink et Westhoff in Beeftink 1965, which is assigned to the class Asteretea tripolii Westhoff et Beeftink in Beeftink 1962. TWINSPAN and CCA support the vegetation classification and the CCA with soil chemistry parameters shows that salinity (related to position above MHW) and Ncontent are strongly correlated with the floristical differentiation of the vegetation of the Honckenyo-Elymetea class. In the Asteretea tripolii class, position above MHW (negatively correlated with pH, conductivity and Clcontent) and fresh water supply are likely the main factors, which affect vegetation differentiation. A synoptic survey of vegetation types from Greenland based on published phytosociological tables is presented and distribution of the vegetation types is addressed, just as their position in a circumpolar context. Moreover a Cochlearia groenlandica-Melandrium triflorum community is described as a new vegetation type, occurring on shallow soil on cliffs influenced by salt spray.

Wind Resource Mapping Using Landscape Roughness and Spatial Interpolation Methods

Energy saving, reduction of greenhouse gasses and increased use of renewables are key policies to achieve the European 2020 targets. In particular, distributed renewable energy sources, integrated with spatial planning, require novel methods to optimise supply and demand. In contrast with large scale wind turbines, small and medium wind turbines (SMWTs) have a less extensive impact on the use of space and the power system, nevertheless, a significant spatial footprint is still present and the need for good spatial planning is a necessity. To optimise the location of SMWTs, detailed knowledge of the spatial distribution of the average wind speed is essential, hence, in this article, wind measurements and roughness maps were used to create a reliable annual mean wind speed map of Flanders at 10 m above the Earth’s surface. Via roughness transformation, the surface wind speed measurements were converted into meso- and macroscale wind data. The data were further processed by using seven different spatial interpolation methods in order to develop regional wind resource maps. Based on statistical analysis, it was found that the transformation into mesoscale wind, in combination with Simple Kriging, was the most adequate method to create reliable maps for decision-making on optimal production sites for SMWTs in Flanders (Belgium).

The influence of balanced and imbalanced resource supply on biodiversity – functioning relationship across ecosystems

Numerous studies show that increasing species richness leads to higher ecosystem productivity. This effect is often attributed to more efficient portioning of multiple resources in communities with higher numbers of competing species, indicating the role of resource supply and stoichiometry for biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships. Here, we merged theory on ecological stoichiometry with a framework of biodiversity-ecosystem functioning to understand how resource use transfers into primary production. We applied a structural equation model to define patterns of diversity-productivity relationships with respect to available resources. Meta-analysis was used to summarize the findings across ecosystem types ranging from aquatic ecosystems to grasslands and forests. As hypothesized, resource supply increased realized productivity and richness, but we found significant differences between ecosystems and study types. Increased richness was associated with increased productivity, although this effect was not seen in experiments. More even communities had lower productivity, indicating that biomass production is often maintained by a few dominant species, and reduced dominance generally reduced ecosystem productivity. This synthesis, which integrates observational and experimental studies in a variety of ecosystems and geographical regions, exposes common patterns and differences in biodiversity-functioning relationships, and increases the mechanistic understanding of changes in ecosystems productivity.

The influence of balanced and imbalanced resource supply on biodiversity – functioning relationship across ecosystems

Numerous studies show that increasing species richness leads to higher ecosystem productivity. This effect is often attributed to more efficient portioning of multiple resources in communities with higher numbers of competing species, indicating the role of resource supply and stoichiometry for biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships. Here, we merged theory on ecological stoichiometry with a framework of biodiversity-ecosystem functioning to understand how resource use transfers into primary production. We applied a structural equation model to define patterns of diversity-productivity relationships with respect to available resources. Meta-analysis was used to summarize the findings across ecosystem types ranging from aquatic ecosystems to grasslands and forests. As hypothesized, resource supply increased realized productivity and richness, but we found significant differences between ecosystems and study types. Increased richness was associated with increased productivity, although this effect was not seen in experiments. More even communities had lower productivity, indicating that biomass production is often maintained by a few dominant species, and reduced dominance generally reduced ecosystem productivity. This synthesis, which integrates observational and experimental studies in a variety of ecosystems and geographical regions, exposes common patterns and differences in biodiversity-functioning relationships, and increases the mechanistic understanding of changes in ecosystems productivity.