The subjectivist interpretation of probability and the problem of individualisation in forensic science

This paper presents and discusses further aspects of the subjectivist interpretation of probability (also known as the 'personalist' view of probabilities) as initiated in earlier forensic and legal literature. It shows that operational devices to elicit subjective probabilities - in particular the so-called scoring rules - provide additional arguments in support of the standpoint according to which categorical claims of forensic individualisation do not follow from a formal analysis under that view of probability theory.

Daptomycin plus fosfomycin versus daptomycin monotherapy in treating MRSA: protocol of a multicentre, randomised, phase III trial.

INTRODUCTION Despite the availability of new antibiotics such as daptomycin, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) bacteraemia continues to be associated with high clinical failure rates. Combination therapy has been proposed as an alternative to improve outcomes but there is a lack of clinical studies. The study aims to demonstrate that combination of daptomycin plus fosfomycin achieves higher clinical success rates in the treatment of MRSA bacteraemia than daptomycin alone. METHODS AND ANALYSIS A multicentre open-label, randomised phase III study. Adult patients hospitalised with MRSA bacteraemia will be randomly assigned (1:1) to group 1: daptomycin 10 mg/kg/24 h intravenous; or group 2: daptomycin 10 mg/kg/24 h intravenous plus fosfomycin 2 gr/6 g intravenous. The main outcome will be treatment response at week 6 after stopping therapy (test-of-cure (TOC) visit). This is a composite variable with two values: Treatment success: resolution of clinical signs and symptoms (clinical success) and negative blood cultures (microbiological success) at the TOC visit. Treatment failure: if any of the following conditions apply: (1) lack of clinical improvement at 72 h or more after starting therapy; (2) persistent bacteraemia (positive blood cultures on day 7); (3) therapy is discontinued early due to adverse effects or for some other reason based on clinical judgement; (4) relapse of MRSA bacteraemia before the TOC visit; (5) death for any reason before the TOC visit. Assuming a 60% cure rate with daptomycin and a 20% difference in cure rates between the two groups, 103 patients will be needed for each group (α:0.05, ß: 0.2). Statistical analysis will be based on intention to treat, as well as per protocol and safety analysis. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION The protocol was approved by the Spanish Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (AEMPS). The sponsor commits itself to publishing the data in first quartile peer-review journals within 12 months of the completion of the study. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT01898338.

Harmonic active contours.

We propose a segmentation method based on the geometric representation of images as 2-D manifolds embedded in a higher dimensional space. The segmentation is formulated as a minimization problem, where the contours are described by a level set function and the objective functional corresponds to the surface of the image manifold. In this geometric framework, both data-fidelity and regularity terms of the segmentation are represented by a single functional that intrinsically aligns the gradients of the level set function with the gradients of the image and results in a segmentation criterion that exploits the directional information of image gradients to overcome image inhomogeneities and fragmented contours. The proposed formulation combines this robust alignment of gradients with attractive properties of previous methods developed in the same geometric framework: 1) the natural coupling of image channels proposed for anisotropic diffusion and 2) the ability of subjective surfaces to detect weak edges and close fragmented boundaries. The potential of such a geometric approach lies in the general definition of Riemannian manifolds, which naturally generalizes existing segmentation methods (the geodesic active contours, the active contours without edges, and the robust edge integrator) to higher dimensional spaces, non-flat images, and feature spaces. Our experiments show that the proposed technique improves the segmentation of multi-channel images, images subject to inhomogeneities, and images characterized by geometric structures like ridges or valleys.

"I came from there (but no one warned me!)": reflections on people management policies that target intranational interculturality

The purpose of this article is to analyze how professionals who decided to risk intramobility in their careers and who were hired by organizations from the industrial complex of Camaçari (Bahia) perceive the development of people management strategies that target intranational interculturality within these organizations. To achieve this, besides a review and theoretical analysis of the concepts of mobility, intercultural management and people management in organizations, 13 professionals were interviewed who had moved from different Brazilian states to work in companies in this particular complex. The results indicate that generally organizations ignore intercultural aspects, which is reflected in a gap in people management strategies. One indication of this refers to the lack of initial support, which generates problems for the individuals who arrive with great expectations in their new workplace. Furthermore, there is evidence that the financial help provided is insufficient and it becomes necessary to pay attention also to subjective aspects that involve relocation and the consequent international interculturality. Finally, it is believed that expansion of the focus of studies on intercultural management, with a look at intranational aspects, makes it possible to learn theoretical and practical lessons because of the experiences of the players who underwent the process, since intercultural management and people management can generate comparative advantages for organizations.

MDCT Arthrography of the Hip: Value of the Adaptive Statistical Iterative Reconstruction Technique and Potential for Radiation Dose Reduction

Au cours des deux dernières décennies, la technique d'imagerie arthro-scanner a bénéficié de nombreux progrès technologiques et représente aujourd'hui une excellente alternative à l'imagerie par résonance magnétique (IRM) et / ou arthro-IRM dans l'évaluation des pathologies de la hanche. Cependant, elle reste limitée par l'exposition aux rayonnements ionisants importante. Les techniques de reconstruction itérative (IR) ont récemment été mis en oeuvre avec succès en imagerie ; la littérature montre que l'utilisation ces dernières contribue à réduire la dose d'environ 40 à 55%, comparativement aux protocoles courants utilisant la rétroprojection filtrée (FBP), en scanner de rachis. A notre connaissance, l'utilisation de techniques IR en arthro-scanner de hanche n'a pas été évaluée jusqu'à présent. Le but de notre étude était d'évaluer l'impact de la technique ASIR (GE Healthcare) sur la qualité de l'image objective et subjective en arthro-scanner de hanche, et d'évaluer son potentiel en terme de réduction de dose. Pour cela, trente sept patients examinés par arthro-scanner de hanche ont été randomisés en trois groupes : dose standard (CTDIvol = 38,4 mGy) et deux groupes de dose réduite (CTDIvol = 24,6 ou 15,4 mGy). Les images ont été reconstruites en rétroprojection filtrée (FBP) puis en appliquant différents pourcentages croissants d'ASIR (30, 50, 70 et 90%). Le bruit et le rapport contraste sur bruit (CNR) ont été mesurés. Deux radiologues spécialisés en imagerie musculo-squelettique ont évalué de manière indépendante la qualité de l'image au niveau de plusieurs structures anatomiques en utilisant une échelle de quatre grades. Ils ont également évalué les lésions labrales et du cartilage articulaire. Les résultats révèlent que le bruit augmente (p = 0,0009) et le CNR diminue (p = 0,001) de manière significative lorsque la dose diminue. A l'inverse, le bruit diminue (p = 0,0001) et le contraste sur bruit augmente (p < 0,003) de manière significative lorsque le pourcentage d'ASIR augmente ; on trouve également une augmentation significative des scores de la qualité de l'image pour le labrum, le cartilage, l'os sous-chondral, la qualité de l'image globale (au delà de ASIR 50%), ainsi que le bruit (p < 0,04), et une réduction significative pour l'os trabuculaire et les muscles (p < 0,03). Indépendamment du niveau de dose, il n'y a pas de différence significative pour la détection et la caractérisation des lésions labrales (n=24, p = 1) et des lésions cartilagineuses (n=40, p > 0,89) en fonction du pourcentage d'ASIR. Notre travail a permis de montrer que l'utilisation de plus de 50% d'ASIR permet de reduire de manière significative la dose d'irradiation reçue par le patient lors d'un arthro-scanner de hanche tout en maintenant une qualité d'image diagnostique comparable par rapport à un protocole de dose standard utilisant la rétroprojection filtrée.

Entrepreneurial decision-making using the knightian uncertainty approach

The article discusses the behavioral aspects that affect the entrepreneurs' decision making under the Knightian uncertainty approach. Since the profit arising from entrepreneurial activity represents the reward of an immeasurable and subjective risk, it has been hypothesized that innovative entrepreneurs have excessive optimism and confidence, which leads them to invest in high-risk activities. A behavioral model of decision making under uncertainty is used to test the hypothesis of overconfidence. This model is based on Bayesian inference, which allows us to model the assumption that these entrepreneurs are overconfident. We conclude that, under the hypothesis of overconfidence, these entrepreneurs decide to invest, despite the fact that the expected utility model indicates the contrary. This theoretical finding could explain why there are a large number of business failures in the first years of activity.

Interindividual variability of the clinical pharmacokinetics of methadone: implications for the treatment of opioid dependence

Methadone is widely used for the treatment of opioid dependence. Although in most countries the drug is administered as a racemic mixture of (R)- and (S)- methadone, (R)-methadone accounts for most, if not all, of the opioid effects. Methadone can be detected in the blood 15-45 minutes after oral administration, with peak plasma concentration at 2.5-4 hours. Methadone has a mean bioavailability of around 75% (range 36-100%). Methadone is highly bound to plasma proteins, in particular to alpha(1)-acid glycoprotein. Its mean free fraction is around 13%, with a 4-fold interindividual variation. Its volume of distribution is about 4 L/kg (range 2-13 L/kg). The elimination of methadone is mediated by biotransformation, followed by renal and faecal excretion. Total body clearance is about 0.095 L/min, with wide interindividual variation (range 0.02-2 L/min). Plasma concentrations of methadone decrease in a biexponential manner, with a mean value of around 22 hours (range 5-130 hours) for elimination half-life. For the active (R)-enantiomer, mean values of around 40 hours have been determined. Cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A4 and to a lesser extent 2D6 are probably the main isoforms involved in methadone metabolism. Rifampicin (rifampin), phenobarbital, phenytoin, carbamazepine, nevirapine, and efavirenz decrease methadone blood concentrations, probably by induction of CYP3A4 activity, which can result in severe withdrawal symptoms. Inhibitors of CYP3A4, such as fluconazole, and of CYP2D6, such as paroxetine, increase methadone blood concentrations. There is an up to 17-fold interindividual variation of methadone blood concentration for a given dosage, and interindividual variability of CYP enzymes accounts for a large part of this variation. Since methadone probably also displays large interindividual variability in its pharmacodynamics, methadone treatment must be individually adapted to each patient. Because of the high morbidity and mortality associated with opioid dependence, it is of major importance that methadone is used at an effective dosage in maintenance treatment: at least 60 mg/day, but typically 80-100 mg/day. Recent studies also show that a subset of patients might benefit from methadone dosages larger than 100 mg/day, many of them because of high clearance. In clinical management, medical evaluation of objective signs and subjective symptoms is sufficient for dosage titration in most patients. However, therapeutic drug monitoring can be useful in particular situations. In the case of non-response trough plasma concentrations of 400 microg/L for (R,S)-methadone or 250 microg/L for (R)-methadone might be used as target values.

Schizotypy : do not worry, it is not all worrisome

A long-standing tradition in personality research in psychology, and nowadays increasingly in psychiatry, is that psychotic and psychotic-like thoughts are considered common experiences in the general population. Given their widespread occurrence, such experiences cannot merely reflect pathological functioning. Moreover, reflecting the multi-dimensionality of schizotypy, some dimensions might be informative for healthy functioning while others less so. Here, we explored these possibilities by reviewing research that links schizotypy to favourable functioning such as subjective wellbeing, cognitive functioning (major focus on creativity) and personality correlates. This research highlights the existence of healthy people with psychotic-like traits who mainly experience positive schizotypy (but also affective features mapping onto bipolar disorder). These individuals seem to benefit from a healthy way to organise their thoughts and experiences, i.e. they employ an adaptive cognitive framework to explain and integrate their unusual experiences. We conclude that, instead of focussing only on the pathological, future studies should explore the behavioural, genetic, imaging and psychopharmacological correlates that define the healthy expression of psychotic-like traits. Such studies would inform on protective or compensatory mechanisms of psychosis-risk and could usefully inform us on the evolutionary advantages of the psychosis dimension.

Complexité, médecine générale et réformes des systèmes de santé [Complexity, general practice and reforms of health systems].

The family doctor facing complexity must decide in situations of low certainty and low agreement. Complexity is in part subjective but can also be measured. Changes in the health systems aim to reduce health costs. They tend to give priority to simple situations and to neglect complexity. One role of an academic institute of family medicine is to present and promote the results of scientific research supporting the principles of family medicine, taking into account both the local context and health systems reforms. In Switzerland the new challenge is the introduction of managed care.

L'évaluation des difficultés et des besoins des patients psychiatriques. Les échelles lausannoises ELADEB.

Il existe de multiples instruments d'évaluation du fonctionnement social, de la qualité de vie ou des besoins des patients psychiatriques qui peuvent aider dans l'élaboration des stratégies de traitement. Néanmoins, nombre d'entre eux ne répondent pas toujours aux attentes des cliniciens ou des chercheurs. En réponse à ces limitations, nous avons élaboré une nouvelle échelle de mesure subjective des difficultés et du besoin d'aide, intitulée ELADEB. Sur la base d'une activité de tri de cartes, il est possible en quelques minutes de dresser le profil de difficultés des patients, et de mettre en évidence les domaines dans lesquels ils estiment avoir besoin d'une aide supplémentaire par rapport à celle qui existe peut-être déjà.

BrainCheck - a very brief tool to detect incipient cognitive decline: optimized case-finding combining patient- and informant-based data.

INTRODUCTION: Optimal identification of subtle cognitive impairment in the primary care setting requires a very brief tool combining (a) patients' subjective impairments, (b) cognitive testing, and (c) information from informants. The present study developed a new, very quick and easily administered case-finding tool combining these assessments ('BrainCheck') and tested the feasibility and validity of this instrument in two independent studies. METHODS: We developed a case-finding tool comprised of patient-directed (a) questions about memory and depression and (b) clock drawing, and (c) the informant-directed 7-item version of the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE). Feasibility study: 52 general practitioners rated the feasibility and acceptance of the patient-directed tool. Validation study: An independent group of 288 Memory Clinic patients (mean ± SD age = 76.6 ± 7.9, education = 12.0 ± 2.6; 53.8% female) with diagnoses of mild cognitive impairment (n = 80), probable Alzheimer's disease (n = 185), or major depression (n = 23) and 126 demographically matched, cognitively healthy volunteer participants (age = 75.2 ± 8.8, education = 12.5 ± 2.7; 40% female) partook. All patient and healthy control participants were administered the patient-directed tool, and informants of 113 patient and 70 healthy control participants completed the very short IQCODE. RESULTS: Feasibility study: General practitioners rated the patient-directed tool as highly feasible and acceptable. Validation study: A Classification and Regression Tree analysis generated an algorithm to categorize patient-directed data which resulted in a correct classification rate (CCR) of 81.2% (sensitivity = 83.0%, specificity = 79.4%). Critically, the CCR of the combined patient- and informant-directed instruments (BrainCheck) reached nearly 90% (that is 89.4%; sensitivity = 97.4%, specificity = 81.6%). CONCLUSION: A new and very brief instrument for general practitioners, 'BrainCheck', combined three sources of information deemed critical for effective case-finding (that is, patients' subject impairments, cognitive testing, informant information) and resulted in a nearly 90% CCR. Thus, it provides a very efficient and valid tool to aid general practitioners in deciding whether patients with suspected cognitive impairments should be further evaluated or not ('watchful waiting').

Mobile or fixed bearing for total knee arthroplasty? Ambulatory gait analysis results

Background: Mobile-bearing knee replacements have some theoretical advantages over fixed-bearing devices. However, very few randomized controlled clinical trials have been published to date, and studies showed little clinical and subjective advantages for the mobile-bearing using traditional systems of scoring. The choice of the ideal outcome measure to assess total joint replacement remains a complex issue. However, gait analysis provides objective and quantifying evidences of treatment evaluation. Significant methodological advances are currently made in gait analysis laboratories and ambulatory gait devices are now available. The goal of this study was to provide gait parameters as a new objective method to assess total knee arthroplasty outcome between patients with fixed- and mobile-bearing, using an ambulatory device with minimal sensor configuration. This randomized controlled double-blind study included to date 14 patients: the gait signatures of four patients with mobile-bearing were compared to the gait signatures of nine patients with fixed-bearing pre-operatively and post-operatively at 6 weeks, 3 months and 6 months. Each participant was asked to perform two walking trials of 30m long at his/her preferred speed and to complete a EQ-5D questionnaire, a WOMAC and Knee Society Score (KSS). Lower limbs rotations were measured by four miniature angular rate sensors mounted respectively, on each shank and thigh. A new method for a portable system for gait analysis has been developed with very encouraging results regarding the objective outcome of total knee arthroplasty using mobile- and fixed-bearings.

Aptitude à la conduite, pathologies psychiatriques et psychotropes chez la personne âgée [Driving ability, mental illness and psychotropic medication in the elderly].

Fitness to drive in elderly drivers is most commonly discussed with a focus on cognitive impairment. Therefore, this article is focussing on mental illness and the use of psychotropic drugs in elderly drivers, which can both interfere with fitness to drive. Based on a detailed literature review and on clinical judgement, we propose signposts and "red flags" to judge the individual risks. Health professionals dealing with elderly patients should in particular be aware of the dangers related to cumulative risks and need to inform the patients appropriately. For medico-legal reasons the information provided to patients must be written down in the medical record. Individual counselling is important as fitness to drive is a complex topic.

Clairvoyance de l'utilité et de la désirabilité sociales dans les situations d'évaluation

Résumé Le concept de clairvoyance normative (Py & Somat, 1991), qui a vu le jour dans la continuité des études sur la norme d'internalité (Beauvois, 1984), traduit la connaissance du caractère normatif ou contre-normatif d'un type de comportements ou d'un type de jugements. Un certain nombre de recherches semble alors attester que la clairvoyance normative participe à l'obtention d'une évaluation positive. Toutefois, ces différentes recherches font toutes fi de l'idée qu'il existerait deux dimensions de la valeur sociale : l'utilité sociale et la désirabilité sociale. La prise en compte de ces deux dimensions, surtout si l'on admet que les normes sociales ne renvoient pas toutes à la même dimension (Beauvois, 1995 ; Dubois & Beauvois, 2005 ; Dubois, 2005), vient alors quelque peu compliquer le modèle liant clairvoyance normative et évaluation positive car elle suggère que la clairvoyance de certaines normes aidera avant tout à être bien évalué sur le plan de l'utilité sociale alors que la clairvoyance d'autres normes participera davantage à être évalué favorablement sur le plan de la désirabilité sociale. Ces réflexions ont été à la base de ce travail de thèse et ont conduit à la réalisation de notre première étude. Les quelques résultats inattendus que nous avons obtenus nous ont cependant incité par la suite à reconsidérer la pertinence de rattacher la notion de clairvoyance à certains types de contenu (internalité, autosuffisance, etc.), ce qui nous a amené à la proposition de deux nouvelles notions : la clairvoyance de l'utilité sociale et la clairvoyance de la désirabilité sociale. C'est dans l'optique de valider cette proposition que deux nouvelles études ont alors été réalisées. Si celles-ci appuient dans leur ensemble l'idée que les clairvoyances de l'utilité et de la désirabilité sociales seraient des indicateurs plus performants d'une évaluation sociale positive que ne le seraient les clairvoyances des normes sociales de jugement, elles n'ont néanmoins pas manqué de soulever de nouvelles questions. Cela nous a ainsi mené, dans un troisième temps, à nous interroger sur ce qui détermine la valeur en jeu dans une situation d'évaluation. Nos trois dernières études ont été construites dans ce dessein et ont participé, en conclusion de ce travail, à étayer l'idée que la clairvoyance de la valeur sociale des jugements ne permettrait l'obtention d'une évaluation positive que si celle-ci va de pair avec une certaine clairvoyance de la valeur sociale des éléments constitutifs de la situation d'interaction. Abstract The concept of normative clearsightedness (Py & Somat, 1991), born in continuity with studies on the norm of internality (Beauvois, 1984), reflects the knowledge of the normative or counter-normative nature of a type of behaviour or a type of judgement. Several researches appear to show that normative clearsightedness helps to obtain a positive evaluation. However, none of these researches takes into account the idea that there might be two dimensions of social value: social utility and social desirability. Considering those two dimensions, especially if we accept that not all social norms refer to the same dimension (Beauvois, 1995; Dubois & Beauvois, 2005; Dubois, 2005), somehow complicates the model linking normative clearsightedness with a positive evaluation. It suggests indeed that while clearsightedness of some norms will help first of all to get a good evaluation on the dimension of social utility, clearsightedness of other norms will help above all to get a good evaluation on the dimension of social desirability. These considerations were the foundation of this work and led to our first study. However, we reached some unexpected results that prompted us thereafter to reconsider the pertinence to attach the notion of clearsightedness to particular types of content (internality, self-sufficiency, etc.), which led us to propose two new notions: clearsightedness of social utility and clearsightedness of social desirability. Two new studies were thus executed to challenge this proposal. While these researches support as a whole that clearsightedness of social utility and social desirability are better indicators of positive evaluation than clearsightedness of social norms of judgement, they also raised new questions, which led us, in a third time, to wonder about what will determine the dominating social value in an evaluative situation. Our last three studies were designed to this purpose and helped to support the idea, in conclusion of this work, that the clearsightedness of the social value of judgements would bring a positive evaluation only if this clearsightedness is combined with a kind of clearsightedness of the social value of elements constituting the interaction's situation.