Statistical Analysis of an SEIR Epidemic Model

This thesis was focussed on statistical analysis methods and proposes the use of Bayesian inference to extract information contained in experimental data by estimating Ebola model parameters. The model is a system of differential equations expressing the behavior and dynamics of Ebola. Two sets of data (onset and death data) were both used to estimate parameters, which has not been done by previous researchers in (Chowell, 2004). To be able to use both data, a new version of the model has been built. Model parameters have been estimated and then used to calculate the basic reproduction number and to study the disease-free equilibrium. Estimates of the parameters were useful to determine how well the model fits the data and how good estimates were, in terms of the information they provided about the possible relationship between variables. The solution showed that Ebola model fits the observed onset data at 98.95% and the observed death data at 93.6%. Since Bayesian inference can not be performed analytically, the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach has been used to generate samples from the posterior distribution over parameters. Samples have been used to check the accuracy of the model and other characteristics of the target posteriors.

Statistical Optimum Design of Heat Exchangers

The optimal design of a heat exchanger system is based on given model parameters together with given standard ranges for machine design variables. The goals set for minimizing the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) function which represents the price of the saved energy, for maximizing the momentary heat recovery output with given constraints satisfied and taking into account the uncertainty in the models were successfully done. Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) for the design optimization of a system is presented and implemented inMatlab environment. Markov ChainMonte Carlo (MCMC) methods are also used to take into account the uncertainty in themodels. Results show that the price of saved energy can be optimized. A wet heat exchanger is found to be more efficient and beneficial than a dry heat exchanger even though its construction is expensive (160 EUR/m2) compared to the construction of a dry heat exchanger (50 EUR/m2). It has been found that the longer lifetime weights higher CAPEX and lower OPEX and vice versa, and the effect of the uncertainty in the models has been identified in a simplified case of minimizing the area of a dry heat exchanger.

Validation and statistical analysis of two high performance liquid chromatography methods for the determination of indinavir sulfate raw material and capsules

Two high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) methods for the quantitative determination of indinavir sulfate were tested, validated and statistically compared. Assays were carried out using as mobile phases mixtures of dibutylammonium phosphate buffer pH 6.5 and acetonitrile (55:45) at 1 mL/min or citrate buffer pH 5 and acetonitrile (60:40) at 1 mL/min, an octylsilane column (RP-8) and a UV spectrophotometric detector at 260 nm. Both methods showed good sensitivity, linearity, precision and accuracy. The statistical analysis using the t-student test for the determination of indinavir sulfate raw material and capsules indicated no statistically significant difference between the two methods.

The adequacy of different robust statistical tests in comparing two independent groups

In the current study, we evaluated various robust statistical methods for comparing two independent groups. Two scenarios for simulation were generated: one of equality and another of population mean differences. In each of the scenarios, 33 experimental conditions were used as a function of sample size, standard deviation and asymmetry. For each condition, 5000 replications per group were generated. The results obtained by this study show an adequate type error I rate but not a high power for the confidence intervals. In general, for the two scenarios studied (mean population differences and not mean population differences) in the different conditions analysed, the Mann-Whitney U-test demonstrated strong performance, and a little worse the t-test of Yuen-Welch.

Statistical Analysis and Numerics of Heat Exchanger Models

The identifiability of the parameters of a heat exchanger model without phase change was studied in this Master’s thesis using synthetically made data. A fast, two-step Markov chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) was tested with a couple of case studies and a heat exchanger model. The two-step MCMC-method worked well and decreased the computation time compared to the traditional MCMC-method. The effect of measurement accuracy of certain control variables to the identifiability of parameters was also studied. The accuracy used did not seem to have a remarkable effect to the identifiability of parameters. The use of the posterior distribution of parameters in different heat exchanger geometries was studied. It would be computationally most efficient to use the same posterior distribution among different geometries in the optimisation of heat exchanger networks. According to the results, this was possible in the case when the frontal surface areas were the same among different geometries. In the other cases the same posterior distribution can be used for optimisation too, but that will give a wider predictive distribution as a result. For condensing surface heat exchangers the numerical stability of the simulation model was studied. As a result, a stable algorithm was developed.

Optimization of solvent mixtures for extraction from bark of Schinus terebinthifolius by a statistical mixture-design technique and development of a UV-Vis spectrophotometric method for analysis of total polyphenols in the extract

A statistical mixture-design technique was used to study the effects of different solvents and their mixtures on the yield, total polyphenol content, and antioxidant capacity of the crude extracts from the bark of Schinus terebinthifolius Raddi (Anacardiaceae). The experimental results and their response-surface models showed that ternary mixtures with equal portions of all the three solvents (water, ethanol and acetone) were better than the binary mixtures in generating crude extracts with the highest yield (22.04 ± 0.48%), total polyphenol content (29.39 ± 0.39%), and antioxidant capacity (6.38 ± 0.21). An analytical method was developed and validated for the determination of total polyphenols in the extracts. Optimal conditions for the various parameters in this analytical method, namely, the time for the chromophoric reaction to stabilize, wavelength of the absorption maxima to be monitored, the reference standard and the concentration of sodium carbonate were determined to be 5 min, 780 nm, pyrogallol, and 14.06% w v-1, respectively. UV-Vis spectrophotometric monitoring of the reaction under these conditions proved the method to be linear, specific, precise, accurate, reproducible, robust, and easy to perform.

Statistical Model to DNA Melting

We explore a DNA statistical model to obtain information about the behavior of the thermodynamics quantities. Special attention is given to the thermal denaturation of this macromolecule.

Multivariate statistical analysis to support the minimum streamflow regionalization

ABSTRACT This study aimed to develop a methodology based on multivariate statistical analysis of principal components and cluster analysis, in order to identify the most representative variables in studies of minimum streamflow regionalization, and to optimize the identification of the hydrologically homogeneous regions for the Doce river basin. Ten variables were used, referring to the river basin climatic and morphometric characteristics. These variables were individualized for each of the 61 gauging stations. Three dependent variables that are indicative of minimum streamflow (Q7,10, Q90 and Q95). And seven independent variables that concern to climatic and morphometric characteristics of the basin (total annual rainfall – Pa; total semiannual rainfall of the dry and of the rainy season – Pss and Psc; watershed drainage area – Ad; length of the main river – Lp; total length of the rivers – Lt; and average watershed slope – SL). The results of the principal component analysis pointed out that the variable SL was the least representative for the study, and so it was discarded. The most representative independent variables were Ad and Psc. The best divisions of hydrologically homogeneous regions for the three studied flow characteristics were obtained using the Mahalanobis similarity matrix and the complete linkage clustering method. The cluster analysis enabled the identification of four hydrologically homogeneous regions in the Doce river basin.

Memristive Computing

Memristive computing refers to the utilization of the memristor, the fourth fundamental passive circuit element, in computational tasks. The existence of the memristor was theoretically predicted in 1971 by Leon O. Chua, but experimentally validated only in 2008 by HP Labs. A memristor is essentially a nonvolatile nanoscale programmable resistor — indeed, memory resistor — whose resistance, or memristance to be precise, is changed by applying a voltage across, or current through, the device. Memristive computing is a new area of research, and many of its fundamental questions still remain open. For example, it is yet unclear which applications would benefit the most from the inherent nonlinear dynamics of memristors. In any case, these dynamics should be exploited to allow memristors to perform computation in a natural way instead of attempting to emulate existing technologies such as CMOS logic. Examples of such methods of computation presented in this thesis are memristive stateful logic operations, memristive multiplication based on the translinear principle, and the exploitation of nonlinear dynamics to construct chaotic memristive circuits. This thesis considers memristive computing at various levels of abstraction. The first part of the thesis analyses the physical properties and the current-voltage behaviour of a single device. The middle part presents memristor programming methods, and describes microcircuits for logic and analog operations. The final chapters discuss memristive computing in largescale applications. In particular, cellular neural networks, and associative memory architectures are proposed as applications that significantly benefit from memristive implementation. The work presents several new results on memristor modeling and programming, memristive logic, analog arithmetic operations on memristors, and applications of memristors. The main conclusion of this thesis is that memristive computing will be advantageous in large-scale, highly parallel mixed-mode processing architectures. This can be justified by the following two arguments. First, since processing can be performed directly within memristive memory architectures, the required circuitry, processing time, and possibly also power consumption can be reduced compared to a conventional CMOS implementation. Second, intrachip communication can be naturally implemented by a memristive crossbar structure.

Near-Threshold Computing

Valmistustekniikoiden kehittyessä IC-piireille saadaan mahtumaan yhä enemmän transistoreja. Monimutkaisemmat piirit mahdollistavat suurempien laskutoimitusmäärien suorittamisen aikayksikössä. Piirien aktiivisuuden lisääntyessä myös niiden energiankulutus lisääntyy, ja tämä puolestaan lisää piirin lämmöntuotantoa. Liiallinen lämpö rajoittaa piirien toimintaa. Tämän takia tarvitaan tekniikoita, joilla piirien energiankulutusta saadaan pienennettyä. Uudeksi tutkimuskohteeksi ovat tulleet pienet laitteet, jotka seuraavat esimerkiksi ihmiskehon toimintaa, rakennuksia tai siltoja. Tällaisten laitteiden on oltava energiankulutukseltaan pieniä, jotta ne voivat toimia pitkiä aikoja ilman akkujen lataamista. Near-Threshold Computing on tekniikka, jolla pyritään pienentämään integroitujen piirien energiankulutusta. Periaatteena on käyttää piireillä pienempää käyttöjännitettä kuin piirivalmistaja on niille alunperin suunnitellut. Tämä hidastaa ja haittaa piirin toimintaa. Jos kuitenkin laitteen toiminnassa pystyään hyväksymään huonompi laskentateho ja pienentynyt toimintavarmuus, voidaan saavuttaa säästöä energiankulutuksessa. Tässä diplomityössä tarkastellaan Near-Threshold Computing -tekniikkaa eri näkökulmista: aluksi perustuen kirjallisuudesta löytyviin aikaisempiin tutkimuksiin, ja myöhemmin tutkimalla Near-Threshold Computing -tekniikan soveltamista kahden tapaustutkimuksen kautta. Tapaustutkimuksissa tarkastellaan FO4-invertteriä sekä 6T SRAM -solua piirisimulaatioiden avulla. Näiden komponenttien käyttäytymisen Near-Threshold Computing –jännitteillä voidaan tulkita antavan kattavan kuvan suuresta osasta tavanomaisen IC-piirin pinta-alaa ja energiankulusta. Tapaustutkimuksissa käytetään 130 nm teknologiaa, ja niissä mallinnetaan todellisia piirivalmistusprosessin tuotteita ajamalla useita Monte Carlo -simulaatioita. Tämä valmistuskustannuksiltaan huokea teknologia yhdistettynä Near-Threshold Computing -tekniikkaan mahdollistaa matalan energiankulutuksen piirien valmistaminen järkevään hintaan. Tämän diplomityön tulokset näyttävät, että Near-Threshold Computing pienentää piirien energiankulutusta merkittävästi. Toisaalta, piirien nopeus heikkenee, ja yleisesti käytetty 6T SRAM -muistisolu muuttuu epäluotettavaksi. Pidemmät polut logiikkapiireissä sekä transistorien kasvattaminen muistisoluissa osoitetaan tehokkaiksi vastatoimiksi Near- Threshold Computing -tekniikan huonoja puolia vastaan. Tulokset antavat perusteita matalan energiankulutuksen IC-piirien suunnittelussa sille, kannattaako käyttää normaalia käyttöjännitettä, vai laskea sitä, jolloin piirin hidastuminen ja epävarmempi käyttäytyminen pitää ottaa huomioon.

On Energy Efficient Computing Platforms

In accordance with the Moore's law, the increasing number of on-chip integrated transistors has enabled modern computing platforms with not only higher processing power but also more affordable prices. As a result, these platforms, including portable devices, work stations and data centres, are becoming an inevitable part of the human society. However, with the demand for portability and raising cost of power, energy efficiency has emerged to be a major concern for modern computing platforms. As the complexity of on-chip systems increases, Network-on-Chip (NoC) has been proved as an efficient communication architecture which can further improve system performances and scalability while reducing the design cost. Therefore, in this thesis, we study and propose energy optimization approaches based on NoC architecture, with special focuses on the following aspects. As the architectural trend of future computing platforms, 3D systems have many bene ts including higher integration density, smaller footprint, heterogeneous integration, etc. Moreover, 3D technology can signi cantly improve the network communication and effectively avoid long wirings, and therefore, provide higher system performance and energy efficiency. With the dynamic nature of on-chip communication in large scale NoC based systems, run-time system optimization is of crucial importance in order to achieve higher system reliability and essentially energy efficiency. In this thesis, we propose an agent based system design approach where agents are on-chip components which monitor and control system parameters such as supply voltage, operating frequency, etc. With this approach, we have analysed the implementation alternatives for dynamic voltage and frequency scaling and power gating techniques at different granularity, which reduce both dynamic and leakage energy consumption. Topologies, being one of the key factors for NoCs, are also explored for energy saving purpose. A Honeycomb NoC architecture is proposed in this thesis with turn-model based deadlock-free routing algorithms. Our analysis and simulation based evaluation show that Honeycomb NoCs outperform their Mesh based counterparts in terms of network cost, system performance as well as energy efficiency.

Statistical analysis of survey-based event history data with application to modeling of unemployment duration

Longitudinal surveys are increasingly used to collect event history data on person-specific processes such as transitions between labour market states. Surveybased event history data pose a number of challenges for statistical analysis. These challenges include survey errors due to sampling, non-response, attrition and measurement. This study deals with non-response, attrition and measurement errors in event history data and the bias caused by them in event history analysis. The study also discusses some choices faced by a researcher using longitudinal survey data for event history analysis and demonstrates their effects. These choices include, whether a design-based or a model-based approach is taken, which subset of data to use and, if a design-based approach is taken, which weights to use. The study takes advantage of the possibility to use combined longitudinal survey register data. The Finnish subset of European Community Household Panel (FI ECHP) survey for waves 1–5 were linked at person-level with longitudinal register data. Unemployment spells were used as study variables of interest. Lastly, a simulation study was conducted in order to assess the statistical properties of the Inverse Probability of Censoring Weighting (IPCW) method in a survey data context. The study shows how combined longitudinal survey register data can be used to analyse and compare the non-response and attrition processes, test the missingness mechanism type and estimate the size of bias due to non-response and attrition. In our empirical analysis, initial non-response turned out to be a more important source of bias than attrition. Reported unemployment spells were subject to seam effects, omissions, and, to a lesser extent, overreporting. The use of proxy interviews tended to cause spell omissions. An often-ignored phenomenon classification error in reported spell outcomes, was also found in the data. Neither the Missing At Random (MAR) assumption about non-response and attrition mechanisms, nor the classical assumptions about measurement errors, turned out to be valid. Both measurement errors in spell durations and spell outcomes were found to cause bias in estimates from event history models. Low measurement accuracy affected the estimates of baseline hazard most. The design-based estimates based on data from respondents to all waves of interest and weighted by the last wave weights displayed the largest bias. Using all the available data, including the spells by attriters until the time of attrition, helped to reduce attrition bias. Lastly, the simulation study showed that the IPCW correction to design weights reduces bias due to dependent censoring in design-based Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard model estimators. The study discusses implications of the results for survey organisations collecting event history data, researchers using surveys for event history analysis, and researchers who develop methods to correct for non-sampling biases in event history data.

What are the opportunities and challenges of cloud computing technology in the healthcare information systems

This thesis discusses the opportunities and challenges of the cloud computing technology in healthcare information systems by reviewing the existing literature on cloud computing and healthcare information system and the impact of cloud computing technology to healthcare industry. The review shows that if problems related to security of data are solved then cloud computing will positively transform the healthcare institutions by giving advantage to the healthcare IT infrastructure as well as improving and giving benefit to healthcare services. Therefore, this thesis will explore the opportunities and challenges that are associated with cloud computing in the context of Finland in order to help the healthcare organizations and stakeholders to determine its direction when it decides to adopt cloud technology on their information systems.

Video transcoding in a distributed cloud computing environment

Video transcoding refers to the process of converting a digital video from one format into another format. It is a compute-intensive operation. Therefore, transcoding of a large number of simultaneous video streams requires a large amount of computing resources. Moreover, to handle di erent load conditions in a cost-e cient manner, the video transcoding service should be dynamically scalable. Infrastructure as a Service Clouds currently offer computing resources, such as virtual machines, under the pay-per-use business model. Thus the IaaS Clouds can be leveraged to provide a coste cient, dynamically scalable video transcoding service. To use computing resources e ciently in a cloud computing environment, cost-e cient virtual machine provisioning is required to avoid overutilization and under-utilization of virtual machines. This thesis presents proactive virtual machine resource allocation and de-allocation algorithms for video transcoding in cloud computing. Since users' requests for videos may change at di erent times, a check is required to see if the current computing resources are adequate for the video requests. Therefore, the work on admission control is also provided. In addition to admission control, temporal resolution reduction is used to avoid jitters in a video. Furthermore, in a cloud computing environment such as Amazon EC2, the computing resources are more expensive as compared with the storage resources. Therefore, to avoid repetition of transcoding operations, a transcoded video needs to be stored for a certain time. To store all videos for the same amount of time is also not cost-e cient because popular transcoded videos have high access rate while unpopular transcoded videos are rarely accessed. This thesis provides a cost-e cient computation and storage trade-o strategy, which stores videos in the video repository as long as it is cost-e cient to store them. This thesis also proposes video segmentation strategies for bit rate reduction and spatial resolution reduction video transcoding. The evaluation of proposed strategies is performed using a message passing interface based video transcoder, which uses a coarse-grain parallel processing approach where video is segmented at group of pictures level.