964 resultados para Statistical Learning


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Existe una clara relación entre prematuridad y un bajo rendimiento cognitivo y escolar. Sin embargo, los efectos concretos del nacimiento prematuro sobre el funcionamiento cognitivo así como sobre el desarrollo cerebral a largo plazo son poco conocidos. Objetivos: Identificar las disfunciones cognitivas concretas en adolescentes que nacieron prematuros mediante una evaluación neuropsicológica exhaustiva, y relacionar los datos cognitivos con la posible afectación del cuerpo calloso. Metodología y Resultados: se comparó dos muestras de sujetos prematuros y sujetos nacidos a término. Se evaluó el rendimiento cognitivo general y específico, y se cuantificó la estructura cerebral del cuerpo calloso. Se realizaron varios análisis estadísticos y se redactaron diversos artículos presentando los resultados obtenidos. Resultados: adolescentes con antecedentes de prematuridad: a) presentan dificultades cognitivas y anormalidades estructurales, más relacionadas con la edad gestacional que con el peso al nacer; b) tienen déficits cognitivos específicos que pueden explicarse parcialmente por sus disfunciones en el rendimiento cognitivo general; c) la media de sus puntuaciones en el CI se sitúa en el rango normal; d) los subtests de las escalas Wechsler no presentan el mismo grado de sensibilidad; e) presentan una reducción de tamaño del cuerpo calloso, f) más acusada en el genu, posterior midbody y splenium; g) existe una asociación específica entre el genu y el menor rendimiento en funciones del lóbulo prefrontal; h) la edad gestacional presenta una clara relación con las anormalidades del cuerpo calloso y con el bajo rendimiento cognitivo general.

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We conducted an experiment to assess the use of olfactory traces for spatial orientation in an open environment in rats, Rattus norvegicus. We trained rats to locate a food source at a fixed location from different starting points, in the presence or absence of visual information. A single food source was hidden in an array of 19 petri dishes regularly arranged in an open-field arena. Rats were trained to locate the food source either in white light (with full access to distant visuospatial information) or in darkness (without any visual information). In both cases, the goal was in a fixed location relative to the spatial frame of reference. The results of this experiment revealed that the presence of noncontrolled olfactory traces coherent with the spatial frame of reference enables rats to locate a unique position as accurately in darkness as with full access to visuospatial information. We hypothesize that the olfactory traces complement the use of other orientation mechanisms, such as path integration or the reliance on visuospatial information. This experiment demonstrates that rats can rely on olfactory traces for accurate orientation, and raises questions about the establishment of such traces in the absence of any other orientation mechanism. Copyright 1998 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

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L'objectif principal de ce travail était d'explorer les relations parent-enfant et les processus d'apprentissage familiaux associés aux troubles anxieux. A cet effet, des familles ayant un membre anxieux (la mère ou l'enfant) ont été comparées avec des familles n'ayant aucun membre anxieux. Dans une première étude, l'observation de l'interaction mère-enfant, pendant une situation standardisée de jeu, a révélé que les mères présentant un trouble panique étaient plus susceptibles de se montrer verbalement contrôlantes, critiques et moins sensibles aux besoins de l'enfant, que les mères qui ne présentaient pas de trouble panique. Une deuxième étude a examiné les perceptions des différents membres de la famille quant aux relations au sein de la famille et a indiqué que, par comparaison aux adolescents non-anxieux, les adolescents anxieux étaient plus enclins à éprouver un sentiment d'autonomie individuelle diminué par rapport à leurs parents. Finalement, une troisième étude s'est intéressée à déterminer l'impact d'expériences d'apprentissage moins directes dans l'étiologie de l'anxiété. Les résultats ont indiqué que les mères présentant un trouble panique étaient plus enclines à s'engager dans des comportements qui maintiennent la panique et à impliquer leurs enfants dans ces comportements, que les mères ne présentant pas de trouble panique. En se basant sur des recherches antérieures qui ont établi une relation entre le contrôle parental, la perception de contrôle chez l'enfant et les troubles anxieux, le présent travail non seulement confirme ce lien mais propose également un modèle pour résumer l'état actuel des connaissances concernant les processus familiaux et le développement des troubles anxieux. Deux routes ont été suggérées par lesquelles l'anxiété pourrait être transmise de manière intergénérationnelle. Chacune de ces routes attribue un rôle important à la perception de contrôle chez l'enfant. L'idée est que lorsque les enfants présentent une prédisposition à interpréter le comportement de leurs parents comme hors de leur contrôle, ils seraient plus enclins à développer de l'anxiété. A ce titre, la perception du contrôle représenterait un tampon entre le comportement de contrôle/surprotection des parents et le trouble anxieux chez l'enfant. - The principal objective of the present work was to explore parent-child relationships and family learning processes associated with anxiety disorders. To this purpose, families with and without an anxious family member (mother or child) were compared. In a first study, observation of mother-child interaction, during a standard play situation, revealed that mothers with panic disorder were more likely to display verbal control and criticism, and less likely to display sensitivity toward their children than mothers without panic disorder. A second study examined family members' perceptions of family relationships and indicated that compared to non-anxious adolescents, anxious adolescents were more prone to experience a diminished sense of individual autonomy in relation to their parents. Finally a third study was interested in determining the effect of less direct learning experiences in the aetiology of anxiety. Results indicated that mothers with panic disorder were more likely to engage in panic-maintaining behaviour and to involve their children in this behaviour than mothers without panic disorder. Based on previous research showing a relationship between parental control, children's perception of control, and anxiety disorders, the present work not only further adds evidence to support this link but also proposes a model summarizing the current knowledge concerning family processes and the development of anxiety disorders. Two pathways have been suggested through which anxiety may be intergenerationally transmitted. Both pathways assign an important role to children's perception of control. The idea is that whenever children have a predisposition towards interpreting their parents' behaviour as beyond of their control, they may be more prone to develop anxiety. As such, perceived control may represent a buffer between parental overcontrolling/overprotective behaviours and childhood anxiety disorder.

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Locating new wind farms is of crucial importance for energy policies of the next decade. To select the new location, an accurate picture of the wind fields is necessary. However, characterizing wind fields is a difficult task, since the phenomenon is highly nonlinear and related to complex topographical features. In this paper, we propose both a nonparametric model to estimate wind speed at different time instants and a procedure to discover underrepresented topographic conditions, where new measuring stations could be added. Compared to space filling techniques, this last approach privileges optimization of the output space, thus locating new potential measuring sites through the uncertainty of the model itself.

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The aim of the present study was to assess the influence of local environmental olfactory cues on place learning in rats. We developed a new experimental design allowing the comparison of the use of local olfactory and visual cues in spatial and discrimination learning. We compared the effect of both types of cues on the discrimination of a single food source in an open-field arena. The goal was either in a fixed or in a variable location, and could be indicated by local olfactory and/or visual cues. The local cues enhanced the discrimination of the goal dish, whether it was in a fixed or in a variable location. However, we did not observe any overshadowing of the spatial information by the local olfactory or visual cue. Rats relied primarily on distant visuospatial information to locate the goal, neglecting local information when it was in conflict with the spatial information.

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Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on econometric learning. Some apparently natural policy rules turn out to imply expectational instability of private agents’ learning. We use the standard New Keynesian model to illustrate this problem and survey the key results about interest-rate rules that deliver both uniqueness and stability of equilibrium under econometric learning. We then consider some practical concerns such as measurement errors in private expectations, observability of variables and learning of structural parameters required for policy. We also discuss some recent applications including policy design under perpetual learning, estimated models with learning, recurrent hyperinflations, and macroeconomic policy to combat liquidity traps and deflation.

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We report experiments designed to test between Nash equilibria that are stable and unstable under learning. The “TASP” (Time Average of the Shapley Polygon) gives a precise prediction about what happens when there is divergence from equilibrium under fictitious play like learning processes. We use two 4 x 4 games each with a unique mixed Nash equilibrium; one is stable and one is unstable under learning. Both games are versions of Rock-Paper-Scissors with the addition of a fourth strategy, Dumb. Nash equilibrium places a weight of 1/2 on Dumb in both games, but the TASP places no weight on Dumb when the equilibrium is unstable. We also vary the level of monetary payoffs with higher payoffs predicted to increase instability. We find that the high payoff unstable treatment differs from the others. Frequency of Dumb is lower and play is further from Nash than in the other treatments. That is, we find support for the comparative statics prediction of learning theory, although the frequency of Dumb is substantially greater than zero in the unstable treatments.

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Knockout mice lacking the alpha-1b adrenergic receptor were tested in behavioral experiments. Reaction to novelty was first assessed in a simple test in which the time taken by the knockout mice and their littermate controls to enter a second compartment was compared. Then the mice were tested in an open field to which unknown objects were subsequently added. Special novelty was introduced by moving one of the familiar objects to another location in the open field. Spatial behavior and memory were further studied in a homing board test, and in the water maze. The alpha-1b knockout mice showed an enhanced reactivity to new situations. They were faster to enter the new environment, covered longer paths in the open field, and spent more time exploring the new objects. They reacted like controls to modification inducing spatial novelty. In the homing board test, both the knockout mice and the control mice seemed to use a combination of distant visual and proximal olfactory cues, showing place preference only if the two types of cues were redundant. In the water maze the alpha-1b knockout mice were unable to learn the task, which was confirmed in a probe trial without platform. They were perfectly able, however, to escape in a visible platform procedure. These results confirm previous findings showing that the noradrenergic pathway is important for the modulation of behaviors such as reaction to novelty and exploration, and suggest that this is mediated, at least partly, through the alpha-1b adrenergic receptors. The lack of alpha-1b adrenergic receptors in spatial orientation does not seem important in cue-rich tasks but may interfere with orientation in situations providing distant cues only.

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This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expectations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents select between predictors that are underparameterized. In a Misspecification Equilibrium agents only select the best-performing statistical models. We demonstrate that, even when monetary policy rules satisfy the Taylor principle by adjusting nominal interest rates more than one for one with inflation, there may exist equilibria with Intrinsic Heterogeneity. Under certain conditions, there may exist multiple misspecification equilibria. We show that these findings have important implications for business cycle dynamics and for the design of monetary policy.

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This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they need to make forecasts of the conditional variance of a stock’s return. Recursive updating of both the conditional variance and the expected return implies several mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices. Extended periods of excess volatility, bubbles and crashes arise with a frequency that depends on the extent to which past data is discounted. A central role is played by changes over time in agents’ estimates of risk.

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Non-formal education programmes are active in a number of developing countries. These programmes offer vulnerable students an opportunity to pursue their education although they were excluded for various reasons from the formal education systems. This paper examines the impact of two programmes (one in Mauritius, and one in Thailand) on their participants’ aspirations towards learning. We develop a methodology to measure the perception of students regarding their learning experience. More than a third of them, for example, believe that there is no barrier to their education. Most acknowledge the role of their teachers in raising their aspirations towards their educational achievement. When compared to male students, female students seem to value more the role of their education.

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In this paper we propose a novel empirical extension of the standard market microstructure order flow model. The main idea is that heterogeneity of beliefs in the foreign exchange market can cause model instability and such instability has not been fully accounted for in the existing empirical literature. We investigate this issue using two di¤erent data sets and focusing on out- of-sample forecasts. Forecasting power is measured using standard statistical tests and, additionally, using an alternative approach based on measuring the economic value of forecasts after building a portfolio of assets. We nd there is a substantial economic value on conditioning on the proposed models.