A molecular platform for the diagnosis of multidrug-resistant and pre-extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis based on single nucleotide polymorphism mutations present in Colombian isolates of Mycobacterium tuberculosis

Developing a fast, inexpensive, and specific test that reflects the mutations present in Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates according to geographic region is the main challenge for drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) control. The objective of this study was to develop a molecular platform to make a rapid diagnosis of multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant TB based on single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) mutations present in therpoB, katG, inhA,ahpC, and gyrA genes from Colombian M. tuberculosis isolates. The amplification and sequencing of each target gene was performed. Capture oligonucleotides, which were tested before being used with isolates to assess the performance, were designed for wild type and mutated codons, and the platform was standardised based on the reverse hybridisation principle. This method was tested on DNA samples extracted from clinical isolates from 160 Colombian patients who were previously phenotypically and genotypically characterised as having susceptible or MDR M. tuberculosis. For our method, the kappa index of the sequencing results was 0,966, 0,825, 0,766, 0,740, and 0,625 forrpoB, katG, inhA,ahpC, and gyrA, respectively. Sensitivity and specificity were ranked between 90-100% compared with those of phenotypic drug susceptibility testing. Our assay helps to pave the way for implementation locally and for specifically adapted methods that can simultaneously detect drug resistance mutations to first and second-line drugs within a few hours.

Uncertainty, electoral Incentives and political myopia

In this paper, we study the determinants of political myopia in a rational model of electoral accountability where the key elements are informational frictions and uncertainty. We build a framework where political ability is ex-ante unknown and policy choices are not perfectly observable. On the one hand, elections improve accountability and allow to keep well-performing incumbents. On the other, politicians invest too little in costly policies with future returns in an attempt to signal high ability and increase their reelection probability. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, uncertainty reduces political myopia and may, under some conditions, increase social welfare. We use the model to study how political rewards can be set so as to maximise social welfare and the desirability of imposing a one-term limit to governments. The predictions of our theory are consistent with a number of stylised facts and with a new empirical observation documented in this paper: aggregate uncertainty, measured by economic volatility, is associated to better ...scal discipline in a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Niveles de anticuerpos bactericidas frente a meningococo C tras la vacunación de niños de 2 a 6 años de edad en Andalucía.

BACKGROUND In 1997, 18.5% of the cases of Meningococcal Disease caused b serogroup C in Andalusia were children between 2 and 4 years of age; ages where the initial immune response and the duration of the capsular A + C meningococcal polysaccharide vaccine is less than in older age groups. Research was designed in order to measure the immune response produced by this vaccine in children from 2 to 6 years of age and to compare it with the natural immunity present in unvaccinated children. METHODS I. Dual monitoring study: a) groups of children vaccinated previously and control groups, b) groups of children who were going to be vaccinated, for pre and post-vaccination (1, 6 and 12 months) analysis and a control group. II. The bactericidal activity was measured according to the standardised protocol of the CDC with regard to the strain of N. meningitidis C-11. The sera with bactericidal activity (TAB) > 1:8 were considered to be protective. RESULTS 1 and 2 months following vaccination, the proportion of TAB > 1:8 was significantly higher than that of the control group (65.6% and 73% in comparison to 2.2% and 12%). In the pre-vaccine and post-vaccine (after 6, 7, 12 and 13 months) verification, no significant difference between vaccinated individuals and controls was observed. CONCLUSIONS The differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals 1 and 2 months following vaccination indicate seroconversion in the vaccinated individuals. For the age group of between 2 to 6 years of age, the bactericidal activity acquired decline quickly, as, after 6 months, differences between this group and the control group are no longer observed.

Efficacy and safety of acupuncture for the treatment of non-specific acute low back pain: a randomised controlled multicentre trial protocol [ISRCTN65814467]

BACKGROUND Low back pain and its associated incapacitating effects constitute an important healthcare and socioeconomic problem, as well as being one of the main causes of disability among adults of working age. The prevalence of non-specific low back pain is very high among the general population, and 60-70% of adults are believed to have suffered this problem at some time. Nevertheless, few randomised clinical trials have been made of the efficacy and efficiency of acupuncture with respect to acute low back pain. The present study is intended to assess the efficacy of acupuncture for acute low back pain in terms of the improvement reported on the Roland Morris Questionnaire (RMQ) on low back pain incapacity, to estimate the specific and non-specific effects produced by the technique, and to carry out a cost-effectiveness analysis. METHODS/DESIGN Randomised four-branch controlled multicentre prospective study made to compare semi-standardised real acupuncture, sham acupuncture (acupuncture at non-specific points), placebo acupuncture and conventional treatment. The patients are blinded to the real, sham and placebo acupuncture treatments. Patients in the sample present symptoms of non specific acute low back pain, with a case history of 2 weeks or less, and will be selected from working-age patients, whether in paid employment or not, referred by General Practitioners from Primary Healthcare Clinics to the four clinics participating in this study. In order to assess the primary and secondary result measures, the patients will be requested to fill in a questionnaire before the randomisation and again at 3, 12 and 48 weeks after starting the treatment. The primary result measure will be the clinical relevant improvement (CRI) at 3 weeks after randomisation. We define CRI as a reduction of 35% or more in the RMQ results. DISCUSSION This study is intended to obtain further evidence on the effectiveness of acupuncture on acute low back pain and to isolate the specific and non-specific effects of the treatment.

O impacto da liquidez nos retornos esperados das debêntures brasileiras

Neste trabalho, teve-se como objetivo identificar o impacto do risco de liquidez nos retornos excedentes esperados das debêntures no mercado secundário brasileiro. Foram realizadas análises de regressão em painel desbalanceado com dados semestrais de 101 debêntures ao longo de oito semestres (primeiro semestre de 2006 ao segundo semestre de 2009), totalizando 382 observações. Sete proxies (spread de compra e venda, %zero returns, idade, volume de emissão, valor nominal de emissão, quantidade emitida e %tempo) foram utilizadas para testar o impacto do risco de liquidez nos yield spreads das debêntures. O yield spread foi controlado por até dez outras variáveis determinantes que não a liquidez (fator de juros, fator de crédito, taxa livre de risco, rating, duration, quatro variáveis contábeis e volatilidade de equity). A hipótese nula de que não há prêmio de liquidez para o mercado secundário de debêntures no Brasil foi rejeitada apenas para três das sete proxies (spread de compra e venda, valor nominal de emissão e quantidade emitida). Os prêmios encontrados são bastante baixos (1,9 basis point para cada 100 basis point de incremento no spread de compra e venda, 0,5 basis point para um aumento de 1% no valor do valor nominal de emissão e 0,17 basis point para cada menos 1.000 debêntures emitidas). De qualquer forma, houve perda na eficiência das proxies de liquidez após correção das autocorrelações e potenciais endogeneidades, seja por meio da inclusão de efeitos fixos, da análise de primeiras diferenças ou da utilização de um sistema de três equações. Esses resultados apontam para a suspeita de que o risco de liquidez não é um fator importante na composição das expectativas dos investidores no mercado secundário de debêntures.

Behavioural Flexibility: evolutionary past and its role in a changing world

A través de la historia de la vida, gran parte de los organismos han desarrollado estrategias para responder a un mundo en constante cambio. Hoy en día, las actividades humanas producen cambios ambientales a una velocidad sin precedentes, lo cual se traduce en grandes desafíos para la persistencia de biodiversidad. Esta investigación evalúa las respuesta de los animales a los cambios ambientales enfocándose en la flexibilidad del comportamiento como estrategia adaptativa. En una primera aproximación a una escala evolutiva, se otorgan evidencias del vínculo hasta ahora tenue entre la cognición e historias de vida, entregando un claro apoyo a la relación entre longevidad, vida reproductiva y el tamaño del cerebro en mamíferos. La longevidad es el centro de muchas hipótesis respecto a las ventajas de desarrollar un cerebro grande, como por ejemplo en la hipótesis del buffer cognitivo y las respuestas flexibles frente a nuevos ambientes. En un segundo nivel, se abordan factores extrínsecos e intrínsecos que podrían explicar las diferencias individuales en innovación, un componente clave en la flexibilidad del comportamiento. Por medio de una aproximación experimental, se evalúan potenciales escenarios que podrían conducir a consistentes diferencias individuales en uno de los principales factores subyacentes a la innovación (i.e. la motivación), y el potencial control endocrino sobre estos escenarios. Posteriormente, con el objetivo de evaluar la respuesta de los animales frente a los cambios ambientales actuales, se explora la respuesta de los animales frente a una de las actividades humanas mas disruptivas sobre los ecosistemas, la urbanización. Por medio de un analisis filogenetico comparativo a nivel global en aves se abordan los mecanismos implicados en la perdida de biodiversidad observada en ambientes urbanos. Los resultados entregan evidencias sobre la importancia de procesos de dispersión local junto con el papel clave de los rasgos de historia de vida, pero en un sentido diferente al clasicamente pensado. Finalmente por medio de una revisión bibliográfica se entregan evidencias teóricas y empíricas que respaldan el rol clave de la flexibilidad del comportamiento en confrontar los desafíos de una vida urbana. La integración de estos resultados muestra cómo el pasado evolutivo contribuye a hacer frente a los retos ambientales actuales, y pone de relieve posibles consecuencias ante un planeta más cambiante que nunca.

Analysis of multi-scale systemic risk in Brazil's financial market

This work analyzes whether the relationship between risk and returns predicted by the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is valid in the Brazilian stock market. The analysis is based on discrete wavelet decomposition on different time scales. This technique allows to analyze the relationship between different time horizons, since the short-term ones (2 to 4 days) up to the long-term ones (64 to 128 days). The results indicate that there is a negative or null relationship between systemic risk and returns for Brazil from 2004 to 2007. As the average excess return of a market portfolio in relation to a risk-free asset during that period was positive, it would be expected this relationship to be positive. That is, higher systematic risk should result in higher excess returns, which did not occur. Therefore, during that period, appropriate compensation for systemic risk was not observed in the Brazilian market. The scales that proved to be most significant to the risk-return relation were the first three, which corresponded to short-term time horizons. When treating differently, year-by-year, and consequently separating positive and negative premiums, some relevance is found, during some years, in the risk/return relation predicted by the CAPM. However, this pattern did not persist throughout the years. Therefore, there is not any evidence strong enough confirming that the asset pricing follows the model.

U.S. subprime financial crisis contagion on BRIC and European Union stock markets

ABSTRACTThe Copula Theory was used to analyze contagion among the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) and European Union stock markets with the U.S. Equity Market. The market indexes used for the period between January 01, 2005 and February 27, 2010 are: MXBRIC (BRIC), MXEU (European Union) and MXUS (United States). This article evaluated the adequacy of the main copulas found in the financial literature using log-likelihood, Akaike information and Bayesian information criteria. This article provides a groundbreaking study in the area of contagion due to the use of conditional copulas, allowing to calculate the correlation increase between indexes with non-parametric approach. The conditional Symmetrized Joe-Clayton copula was the one that fitted better to the considered pairs of returns. Results indicate evidence of contagion effect in both markets, European Union and BRIC members, with a 5% significance level. Furthermore, there is also evidence that the contagion of U.S. financial crisis was more pronounced in the European Union than in the BRIC markets, with a 5% significance level. Therefore, stock portfolios formed by equities from the BRIC countries were able to offer greater protection during the subprime crisis. The results are aligned with recent papers that present an increase in correlation between stock markets, especially in bear markets.

Effect of investments on fundamentals and market reaction on pre-operational and operational Brazilian companies for the period 2006-2012

ABSTRACT This paper provides evidence on the market reaction to corporate investment decisions whose shareholder value is largely attributed to growth options. The exploratory research raised pre-operational companies and their operational pairs on the same economy segments. It had the purpose of investigating the existence of statistical differentiation from financial indicators that reflect the installed assets and growth assets, and then study the market reaction to changes in fixed assets as a signaling element about investment decisions. The formation process of operational assets and shareholder value almost exclusively dependent on asset growth stands out in the pre-operational companies. As a result, differentiation tests confirmed that the pre-operational companies had their value especially derived on growth options. The market reaction was particularly bigger in pre-operational companies with abnormal negative stock returns, while the operational companies had positive returns, which may indicate that the quality of the investment is judged based on the financial disclosure. Additionally, operational companies' investors await the disclosure to adjust their prices. We conclude that the results are consistent with the empirical evidence and the participants in financial markets to long-term capital formation investments should give that special attention.

Lung cancer mortality in European men: Trends and predictions.

Lung cancer mortality in men from the European Union (EU) peaked in the late 1980s at an age-standardised (world standard population) rate over 53/100,000 and declined subsequently to reach 44/100,000 in the early 2000s. To provide a comprehensive picture of recent trends in male lung cancer mortality in Europe, we analyzed available data from the World Health Organization up to 2009 and predicted future rates to 2015. Lung cancer mortality rates in EU men continued to fall over recent years, to reach a value of 41.1/100,000 in 2005-2009. The fall was similar at all-ages and in middle-aged men (less than 2% per year over most recent years), but was appreciably larger in young men (aged 20-44years, over 5% per year). A favourable trend is thus likely to be maintained in the foreseeable future, although the predicted overall EU rate in 2015 is still over 35/100,000, i.e., higher than the US rate in 2007 (33.7/100,000). Over most recent calendar years, overall male lung cancer rates were around 35-40/100,000 in western Europe, as compared to over 50/100,000 in central and eastern Europe. Within western Europe, lung cancer rates were lower in northern countries such as Sweden, but also Finland and the UK (below 30/100,000), where the tobacco-related epidemic started earlier and rates have long been declining, whereas mortality was high in Belgium (51.6), France (42.3), the Netherlands and Spain (around 43.0), where the epidemic started later but is persisting. Widespread measures for smoking control and cessation in middle-aged European men, i.e., in the generations where smoking prevalence used to be high, would lead to appreciable reductions in male lung cancer mortality in the near future. This is particularly urgent in central and eastern European countries.

Innovation and firm growth: Does firm age play a role?

This paper explores the relationship between firm growth, innovation and firm age. We hypothesize that young firms undertake riskier innovation activities and are more oriented towards employment growth than towards harvesting returns in the form of sales growth. Using an extensive sample of Community Innovation Survey for the period 2004-2010, we apply quantile regressions and a Heckman sample selection technique to study the impact of R&D activities on firm growth according to firm age. Our results show that R&D intensity is positively associated with firm growth. However, for young firms R&D shows an increasing influence across the quantiles, while for old firms R&D shows a stable or perhaps decreasing effect over the quantiles. Firm age shows a significant negative impact among young firms, while for the sample of old firms the impact of firm age becomes non-significant. Our Heckman estimations show the evolution of the impact of the R&D on firm growth confirming a significant impact on sales and productivity growth, while the impact is negligible for employment growth. Keywords: firm age, firm growth, innovation, quantile regression. JEL CODES: L25, L20

Opportunity for catch-up HPV vaccination in young women after first delivery.

Background Early age at first delivery has been identified as a risk factor for high-risk HPV-type infection and cervical cancer development. Methods A cross-sectional study was carried out in a large public maternity hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil. During June 2006 to February 2007, 301 women aged 15-24 years who gave birth to their first child were recruited between 43 and 60 days after delivery. Detection of HPV DNA in cervical specimens was performed using a standardised PCR protocol with PGMY09/11 primers. The association of selected factors with HPV infection was assessed by using a Generalised Linear Model. Results HPV DNA was detected in 58.5% (95% CI 52.7% to 64.0%) of the enrolled young women. The most common types of HPV found were: HPV16, HPV51, HPV52, HPV58 and HPV71. The overall prevalence of HPV types targeted by the HPV prophylactic vaccines was: HPV 16-12.0%, HPV 18-2.3% and HPV 6 and 11 4.3%. In the multivariate analysis, only age (inversely, p for trend=0.02) and smoking habits were independently associated with HPV infection. Conclusions The findings show that these young primiparous women had high cervical HPV prevalence, suggesting that this is a high-risk group for cervical cancer development. Nevertheless, 17.3% were positive for any of the four HPV types included in HPV vaccines (HPV6, 11, 16 or 18), with 13.3% positive for HPV 16 or 18 and only 1.0% having both vaccine related-oncogenic HPV types. Thus, young primiparous women could benefit from catch-up HPV vaccination programmes.

Influence of physico-chemical material characteristics on staphylococcal biofilm formation--a qualitative and quantitative in vitro analysis of five different calcium phosphate bone grafts.

Various compositions of synthetic calcium phosphates (CaP) have been proposed and their use has considerably increased over the past decades. Besides differences in physico-chemical properties, resorption and osseointegration, artificial CaP bone graft might differ in their resistance against biofilm formation. We investigated standardised cylinders of 5 different CaP bone grafts (cyclOS, chronOS (both β-TCP (tricalcium phosphate)), dicalcium phosphate (DCP), calcium-deficient hydroxyapatite (CDHA) and α-TCP). Various physico-chemical characterisations e.g., geometrical density, porosity, and specific surface area were investigated. Biofilm formation was carried out in tryptic soy broth (TSB) and human serum (SE) using Staphylococcus aureus (ATCC 29213) and S. epidermidis RP62A (ATCC 35984). The amount of biofilm was analysed by an established protocol using sonication and microcalorimetry. Physico-chemical characterisation showed marked differences concerning macro- and micropore size, specific surface area and porosity accessible to bacteria between the 5 scaffolds. Biofilm formation was found on all scaffolds and was comparable for α-TCP, chronOS, CDHA and DCP at corresponding time points when the scaffolds were incubated with the same germ and/or growth media, but much lower for cyclOS. This is peculiar because cyclOS had an intermediate porosity, mean pore size, specific surface area, and porosity accessible to bacteria. Our results suggest that biofilm formation is not influenced by a single physico-chemical parameter alone but is a multi-step process influenced by several factors in parallel. Transfer from in vitro data to clinical situations is difficult; thus, advocating the use of cyclOS scaffolds over the four other CaP bone grafts in clinical situations with a high risk of infection cannot be clearly supported based on our data.

Antibiotic cement nail for the treatment of posttraumatic intramedullary infections of the tibia: Midterm results in 10 cases.

INTRODUCTION: This is a single, level 1 trauma centre, prospective consecutive patient series with intramedullary infection in the presence of unstable tibial fracture treated using the Kirschner wire-reinforced, antibiotic cement nail. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 10 consecutive patients (eight males and two females) with a mean age of 42 years (range, 20-59) suffering from infection after intramedullary nailing for tibial fracture, admitted during a period of 4 years, were included. An antibiotic cement-coated nail, handmade at the time of surgery, was implanted in all patients. This was followed by a standardised 6-week treatment protocol, extraction of the nail and definitive fixation. RESULTS: At 6 years of follow-up, infection eradication and bony union were possible in all of the patients. No further infection treatment was necessary; however, all of our patients underwent additional procedures (mean: four additional procedures per patient) for cosmetic or other non-infectious reasons (bone grafting, muscle flaps, etc.). CONCLUSIONS: The antibiotic cement-coated nail seems to be an effective treatment for intramedullary infections of the fractured tibia.

Livestock Revenue Insurance, November 2000

This study outlines several possible structures for livestock revenue insurance. The policies take the form of an exotic option—an Asian basket option. The actuarially fair premiums for these policies are equal to the prices of the options they represent. Due to the complexity of pricing Asian basket options, we have combined two techniques for pricing options to reach the actuarially fair premiums. Projected premiums, producer welfare, and program efficiency are evaluated for the insurance products and existing market tools. Using efficiency ratios and certainty equivalent returns, we compare the insurance policies to strategies involving existing futures and options.