Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal

Research on assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. In this study, we examine the capabilities of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to fit, forecast, and monitor the landings of such data-poor fisheries. We use a European fishery on meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus regius), where only a short time series of landings was available to model (n=60 months), as our case-study. We show that despite the limited sample size, a SARIMA model could be found that adequately fitted and forecasted the time series of meagre landings (12-month forecasts; mean error: 3.5 tons (t); annual absolute percentage error: 15.4%). We derive model-based prediction intervals and show how they can be used to detect problematic situations in the fishery. Our results indicate that over the course of one year the meagre landings remained within the prediction limits of the model and therefore indicated no need for urgent management intervention. We discuss the information that SARIMA model structure conveys on the meagre lifecycle and fishery, the methodological requirements of SARIMA forecasting of data-poor fisheries landings, and the capabilities SARIMA models present within current efforts to monitor the world’s data-poorest resources.

Age validation, growth, mortality, and demographic modeling of spotted gully shark (Triakis megalopterus) from the southeast coast of South Africa

This study documents validation of vertebral band-pair formation in spotted gully shark (Triakis megalopterus) with the use of fluorochrome injection and tagging of captive and wild sharks over a 21-year period. Growth and mortality rates of T. megalopterus were also estimated and a demographic analysis of the species was conducted. Of the 23 OTC (oxytetracycline) -marked vertebrae examined (12 from captive and 11 from wild sharks), seven vertebrae (three from captive and four from wild sharks) exhibited chelation of the OTC and fluoresced under ultraviolet light. It was concluded that a single opaque and translucent band pair was deposited annually up to at least 25 years of age, the maximum age recorded. Reader precision was assessed by using an index of average percent error calculated at 5%. No significant differences were found between male and female growth patterns (P>0.05), and von Bertalanffy growth model parameters for combined sexes were estimated to be L∞=1711.07 mm TL, k=0.11/yr and t0=–2.43 yr (n=86). Natural mortality was estimated at 0.17/yr. Age at maturity was estimated at 11 years for males and 15 years for females. Results of the demographic analysis showed that the population, in the absence of fishing mortality, was stable and not significantly different from zero and particularly sensitive to overfishing. At the current age at first capture and natural mortality rate, the fishing mortality rate required to result in negative population growth was low at F>0.004/ yr. Elasticity analysis revealed that juvenile survival was the principal factor in explaining variability in population growth rate.

Outros Atlânticos: reconfigurações identitárias de estudantes cabo-verdianos em trânsito entre Cabo Verde, Portugal e Brasil

Tendo como foco de reflexão a produção de novas identidades em situação de deslocamento, o presente trabalho compara as trajetórias de estudantes cabo-verdianos em trânsito no Brasil (Rio de Janeiro) e em Portugal (Lisboa) em busca da elaboração de seus projetos de vida e formação superior. A partir da análise de suas narrativas, aborda como esses estudantes constroem suas identidades, em contexto pós-colonial e transnacional, em contato com diversas pessoas e grupos sociais (estudantes brasileiros, portugueses e de outras nacionalidades) e como vivenciam as tensões raciais nos distintos contextos de destino. Deixar Cabo Verde para emigrar para outros países é vivido por muitos jovens cabo-verdianos não só como um destino e um sonho de vida melhor, de ter uma formação superior no exterior, mas também de conhecer outras pessoas e lugares dos quais eles têm notícias de sucessos através de outros estudantes e imigrantes. Longe de casa, da família e dos amigos, as narrativas ressaltam a importância das escolhas na elaboração de seus projetos e das redes de relações construídas nos países de destino para minimizar a saudade, ajudar no acolhimento na universidade e integração na sociedade. Assim, com base nas estratégias de adaptação, vivenciando processos de inclusão e exclusão em diversas situações sociais, no Rio de Janeiro e em Lisboa, o trabalho discute o impacto do trânsito para a reconfiguração de identidades e pertencimentos dos estudantes.

Catches in ghost-fishing octopus and fish traps in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean (Algarve, Portugal)

Ghost fishing is the term used to describe the continued capture of fish and other living organisms after a fisherman has lost all control over the gear. Traps may be lost for a variety of reasons including theft, vandalism, abandonment, interactions with other gear, fouling on the bottom (i.e., traps and ropes are caught on rocky substrate), bad weather, and human error (Laist, 1995). Annual trap loss can be as high as 20% to 50% of fished traps in some fisheries (Al-Masroori et al., 2004). Because lost traps can continue to fish for long periods, albeit with decreasing efficiency over time (e.g., Smolowitz, 1978; Breen, 1987, 1990; Guillory, 1993), ghost fishing is a concern in fisheries worldwide.

Spatial and temporal variability in the relative contribution of king mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) stocks to winter mixed fisheries off South Florida

King mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) are ecologically and economically important scombrids that inhabit U.S. waters of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and Atlantic Ocean (Atlantic). Separate migratory groups, or stocks, migrate from eastern GOM and southeastern U.S. Atlantic to south Florida waters where the stocks mix during winter. Currently, all winter landings from a management-defined south Florida mixing zone are attributed to the GOM stock. In this study, the stock composition of winter landings across three south Florida sampling zones was estimated by using stock-specific otolith morphological variables and Fourier harmonics. The mean accuracies of the jackknifed classifications from stepwise linear discriminant function analysis of otolith shape variables ranged from 66−76% for sex-specific models. Estimates of the contribution of the Atlantic stock to winter landings, derived from maximum likelihood stock mixing models, indicated the contribution was highest off southeastern Florida (as high as 82.8% for females in winter 2001−02) and lowest off southwestern Florida (as low as 14.5% for females in winter 2002−03). Overall, results provided evidence that the Atlantic stock contributes a certain, and perhaps a significant (i.e., ≥50%), percentage of landings taken in the management-defined winter mixing zone off south Florida, and the practice of assigning all winter mixing zone landings to the GOM stock should

Implications of substrate complexity and kelp variability for south-central Alaskan nearshore fish communities

Understanding the interactions between kelp beds and nearshore fish is essential because anthropogenic changes and natural variability in these beds may affect available habitat for fishes. In this study fish communities were investigated in south-central Alaska kelp beds characterized by a range of substrate complexity and varying densities of both perennial understory kelps and annual canopy kelps. Many of the observed fish species, as well as understory and canopy kelps, were positively associated with structurally complex substratum. Targeted canopy and understory kelp beds supported seasonal populations of adult and juvenile Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), rockfishes (Sebastes spp.), and year-round populations of greenlings (Hexagrammos spp.). Monthly changes in kelp and fish communities ref lected seasonal changes; the densities of some species were greatest during periods with higher temperatures. This work illustrates the importance of structurally complex kelp beds with persistent understory kelp populations as important fish habitat for several commercially and recreationally important fishes.

Geographical differences in the feeding patterns of red rockfish (Sebastes capensis) along South American coasts

Feeding habits and feeding strategy of red rockfish (Sebastes capensis) were studied from fish captured along most of the range of this species in coastal waters of South America. Stomach contents of 613 individuals, collected during 2003, were analyzed. Fish were obtained from six locations along the Chilean (23°S to 46°S) and Argentinian (43°S) coasts. The main prey items were Mysidacea (75.06% IRI), Osteichthyes (6.29% IRI),and Rhynchocinetes typus (6.03% IRI). Predator sex and size did not significantly affect the diet, but significant differences were found between locations. Four geographical areas, discriminated by prey occurrence and frequencies, were determined: three on the Pacific coast and one on the Atlantic coast. These areas correspond roughly with biogeographic zones described for the Chilean and southern Argentinian coasts. The feeding strategy index (FSI) indicated a specialized feeding strategy for S. capensis for most of its range. However, the FSI does not include the behaviour of a predator, and the FSI must be interpreted carefully for fishes like S. capensis that are passive ambush feeders. The abundance and availability of different prey may explain both the geographic differences in dietary composition and the specialized feeding strategy of S. capensis.

Tectônica de emplacement dos diques toleíticos do Arco de Ponta Grossa, entre Curitiba e Paranaguá (PR)

Apesar da grande quantidade de estudos geoquímicos e geocronológicos que têm sido executados no enxame de diques de Ponta Grossa (EDPG), pouco se sabe a respeito da tectônica associada ao seu sin e pós emplacement. O objetivo desse estudo é identificar nos diques possíveis indicadores cinemáticos a fim de compreender essa dinâmica, além de caracterizar a tectônica rúptil Meso-cenozóica associada à área, afetando todas as rochas. A área de estudo está situada no entorno da Baía de Paranaguá, estado do Paraná, onde os diques do EDPG afloram intrudindo domínios pré-cambrianos, compostos por gnaisses, sequências metassedimentares e suítes graníticas pertencentes ao Terreno Paranaguá e uma pequena parte às Microplacas Curitiba e Luís Alves, ambos em contato através de Zonas de cisalhamento (SIGA JR, 1995). Essas rochas possuem direção de foliação marcante NE-SW. Os diques estudados foram divididos em dois grupos com base em estudos petrográficos, com forte predomínio dos básicos toleíticos e subordinadamente, os básicos alcalinos. Alguns diques compostos também foram encontrados, o que demonstra ao menos dois pulsos magmáticos possivelmente associados ao mesmo evento. São diques verticais a subverticais e possuem direção principal NW-SE. Com frequência apresentam fraturamento interno de direção NE-SW, provavelmente associados ao seu processo de resfriamento. Possuem formato tabular, porém não é raro que ocorram irregulares. As principais feições indicativas de movimentação oblíqua na intrusão desses diques são as estruturas de borda em degraus, tocos e zigue-zague, que demonstram em geral uma componente distensional destral de deslocamento. Agregando dados dos demais enxames de diques toleíticos principais, chegou-se a um valor médio de N80E para o tensor σ3 da abertura do Atlântico Sul, coerente com o esperado também para EDPG, visto que foram intrudidos em um ambiente transtensivo (CORREA GOMES, 1996). Falhas e fraturas são observadas cortando tanto as rochas encaixantes quanto os diques, caracterizando uma tectônica posterior à intrusão. As principais famílias de fraturas são N20-30E, N30-40W, N80W e N60-70E, formando zonas preferenciais de erosão no cruzamento entre elas. As falhas podem apresentar plano de falha bem definido com estrias e ressaltos, ocorrendo preenchidas ou não, tendo sido observados preenchimento de sílica e material carbonático. Predomina nas falhas observadas, cinemática sinistral demonstrando mudança no campo de esforços com relação ao emplacement dos diques. O estudo da tectônica rúptil assim como do emplacement dos diques da área vem a contribuir para o melhor entendimento dos processos de abertura do Oceano Atlântico Sul, além de abranger a região emersa do que constitui o embasamento da bacia de Santos, foco de extensivos estudos atualmente, podendo-se inferir que os mesmos processos tenham afetado a região offshore.