��reas residenciais clandestinas na Cidade da Praia: caso Latada e Achada Eug��nio Lima Tr��s

O principal objectivo desta disserta����o �� expor a problem��tica das ��reas residenciais clandestinas na cidade da Praia. Este processo de produ����o do espa��o urbano acompanhou o desenvolvimento da urbe, em resultado das raz��es sociais, econ��micas, pol��ticas e institucionais tendo consequ��ncias urban��sticas e sociais graves. Surge porque as diferentes estruturas n��o souberam ou n��o foram capazes de dar resposta aos anseios da popula����o em mat��ria de habita����o e solo para constru����o. Este estudo apresenta um conjunto de informa����o acerca da realidade das ��reas residenciais clandestinas que visa dar a dimens��o da problem��tica na cidade da Praia, seguido de uma an��lise mais detalhada de duas ��reas residenciais. A caracteriza����o s��cio-econ��mica e a an��lise do processo construtivo permitiram produzir conhecimentos mais profundos sobre estes fragmentos do tecido urbano. Na disserta����o procur��mos articular a quest��o do planeamento com a habita����o e as ��reas residenciais clandestinas atrav��s da an��lise dos diferentes planos propostos ou aplicados na urbe. Procur��mos perceber como os planos abordaram esta problem��tica e as solu����es apresentadas para a sua supera����o. Da mesma forma, a aprecia����o feita em rela����o �� habita����o e �� pol��tica de solos atrav��s das resolu����es legais propostas para contornar a situa����o urban��stica da cidade. Para uma melhor compreens��o do tema discutimos a sua abrang��ncia te��rica na perspectiva de diferentes autores e efectuamos o entrosamento entre a componente emp��rica da produ����o do espa��o urbano com a reflex��o te��rica. Perante a fragmenta����o da urbe em n��cleos planeados e espont��neos, partimos na ausculta����o do poder local para a problem��tica. A interven����o deste em reverter o actual panorama e a pol��tica preconizada em rela����o a reconvers��o das ��reas residenciais clandestinas visando a sua integra����o no quadro do ordenamento da aglomera����o

Pr��vention du syndrome post-thrombotique [Prevention of post-thrombotic syndrome].

Post-thrombotic syndrome (PTS) is the most frequent chronic complication of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) with an estimated prevalence of 30-50%. PTS is a significant cause of disability, especially when complicated by venous ulcers. Therefore, PTS has important socio-economic consequences for both the patient and the health care system. Actually, the efficacy of PTS treatment is very limited; therefore, best treatment remains prevention. Compression therapy, particularly by graduated compression stockings (GCS) has a pivotal role in PTS prophylaxis. Aim of this article is to resume state of the art literature on this subject. Recommendations on PTS prevention have even been reported.

Appraising and selecting strategies to combat and mitigate desertification based on stakeholder knowledge and globalbest practices in Cape Verde Archipelago

Cape Verde is considered part of Sahelian Africa, where drought and desertification are common occurrences. The main activity of the rural population is rain-fed agriculture, which over time has been increasingly challenged by high temporal and spatial rainfall variability, lack of inputs, limited land area, fragmentation of land, steep slopes, pests, lack of mechanization and loss of top soil by water erosion. Human activities, largely through poor farming practices and deforestation (Gomez, 1989) have accelerated natural erosion processes, shifting the balance between soil erosion and soil formation (Norton, 1987). According to previous studies, vegetation cover is one of the most important factors in controlling soil loss (Cyr et al., 1995; Hupy, 2004; Zhang et al., 2004; Zhou et al., 2006). For this reason, reforestation is a touchstone of the Cape Verdean policy to combat desertification. After Independence in 1975, the Cape Verde government had pressing and closely entangled environmental and socio-economic issues to address, as long-term desertification had resulted in a lack of soil cover, severe soil erosion and a scarcity of water resources and fuel wood. Across the archipelago, desertification was resulting from a variety of processes including poor farming practices, soil erosion by water and wind, soil and water salinity in coastal areas due to over pumping and seawater intrusion, drought and unplanned urbanization (DGA-MAAP, 2004). All these issues directly affected socio-economic vulnerability in rural areas, where about 70% of people depended directly or indirectly on agriculture in 1975. By becoming part of the Inter- State Committee for the Fight against Drought in the Sahel in 1975, the government of Cape Verde gained structured support to address these issues more efficiently. Presentday policies and strategies were defined on the basis of rational use of resources and human efforts and were incorporated into three subsequent national plans: the National Action Plan for Development (NDP) (1982���1986), the NDP (1986���1990) and the NDP (1991���1995) (Carvalho

National Adaptation Programme of Action on Climate Change - 2008 - 2012

The archipelago of Cape Verde is made up of ten islands and nine islets and is located between latitudes 14�� 28' N and 17�� 12' N and longitudes 22�� 40' W and 25�� 22' W. It is located approximately 500 km from the Senegal coast in West Africa (Figure 1). The islands are divided into two groups: Windward and Leeward. The Windward group is composed of the islands of Santo Ant��o, S��o Vicente, Santa Luzia, S��o Nicolau, Sal and Boavista; and the Leeward group is composed of the islands Maio, Santiago, Fogo and Brava. The archipelago has a total land surface of 4,033 km2 and an Economic Exclusive Zone (ZEE) that extends for approximately 734,000 km2. In general, the relief is very steep, culminating with high elevations (e.g. 2,829 m on Fogo and 1,979 m on Santo Ant��o). The surface area, geophysical configuration and geology vary greatly from one island to the next. Cape Verde, due to its geomorphology, has a dense and complex hydrographical network. However, there are no permanent water courses and temporary water courses run only during the rainy season. These temporary water courses drain quickly towards the main watersheds, where, unless captured by artificial means, continue rapidly to lower areas and to the sea. This applies equally to the flatter islands. The largest watershed is Rabil with an area of 199.2 km2. The watershed areas on other islands extend over less than 70 km2. Cape Verde is both a least developed country (LDC) and a small island development state (SIDS). In 2002, the population of Cape Verde was estimated at approximately 451,000, of whom 52% were women and 48% men. The population was growing at an average 2.4% per year, and the urban population was estimated at 53.7 %. Over the past 15 years, the Government has implemented a successful development strategy, leading to a sustained economic growth anchored on development of the private sector and the integration of Cape Verde into the world economy. During this period, the tertiary sector has become increasingly important, with strong growth in the tourism, transport, banking and trade sectors. Overall, the quality of life indicators show substantial improvements in almost all areas: housing conditions, access to drinking water and sanitation, use of modern energy in both lighting and cooking, access to health services and education. Despite these overall socio-economic successes, the primary sector has witnessed limited progress. Weak performance in the primary sector has had a severe negative impact on the incomes and poverty risks faced by rural workers1. Moreover, relative poverty has increased significantly during the past decade. The poverty profile shows that: (i) extreme poverty is mostly found in rural areas, although it has also increased in urban areas; (ii) poverty is more likely to occur when the head of the household is a woman; (iii) poverty increases with family size; (iv) education significantly affects poverty; (v) the predominantly agricultural islands of Santo Ant��o and Fogo have the highest poverty rates; (vi) unemployment affects the poor more than the nonpoor; (vii) agriculture and fisheries workers are more likely to be poor than those in other sectors. Therefore, the fight against poverty and income inequalities remains one of the greatest challenges for Cape Verde authorities. The various governments of Cape Verde over the last decade have demonstrated a commitment to improving governance, notably by encouraging a democratic culture that guarantees stability and democratic changes without conflicts. This democratic governance offers a space for a wider participation of citizens in public management and consolidates social cohesion. However, there are some remaining challenges related to democratic governance and the gains must be systematically monitored. Finally, it is worth emphasizing that the country���s insularity has stimulated a movement to decentralized governance, although social inequalities and contrasts from one island to the next constitute, at the same time, challenges and opportunities.

As Barragens em cabo Verde - Avalia����o dos Impactes Ambientais - Socioecon��micos e Culturais - Caso de Estudo - A Barragem do Poil��o Ilha Santiago

Os sucessivos anos de seca t��m agravado a cr��nica falta de ��gua que marca o quadro h��drico de Cabo Verde. No arquip��lago verifica-se a perda de um grande volume de ��gua que se escoa para o mar, aquando das grandes chuvadas, e que �� estimado em milh��es de m3/ano. Para atenuar a problem��tica da falta de ��gua, principalmente no setor agr��cola, o Governo Cabo-verdiano tem apostado na pol��tica de constru����o de barragens. No ano de 2006 com o objetivo de aumentar os recursos h��dricos dispon��veis e concomitantemente alargar a ��rea irrigada e diminuir a pobreza, foi inaugurada a barragem do Poil��o, a primeira do arquip��lago, no interior da ilha de Santiago no concelho de S��o Louren��o dos ��rg��os. Baseado no pressuposto que as barragens s��o estruturas de grande impacte ambiental e socioecon��mico, antes, durante e depois da sua constru����o, o presente trabalho tem como objetivo principal avaliar o desempenho ambiental, socioecon��mico e cultural da Barragem de Poil��o. Para tal, o trabalho segue uma metodologia DPSIR1e a aplica����o de inqu��ritos e entrevistas, procurando integrar o conhecimento e a perce����o da paisagem na ��rea de influ��ncia da albufeira por parte de diversos atores locais. Espera-se colher subs��dios que sirvam de base para os estudos futuros das demais barragens projetadas e a serem constru��das em Cabo Verde.

Le Bassin de Ribeira Seca de Santiago, Cap Vert - une gestion bas��e sur l��approche GIRE The Reservoir of Ribiera Seca de Santiago, Cape Vert - Management Exploitation GIRE

Dans cet article, l��auteur caract��rise l��eau et l��agriculture des ��les du Cap Vert et analyse les d��fis de l��eau apr��s la construction du barrage de Poilao dans la Vall��e de Ribeira Seca, sur l����le de Santiago, en se servant de l��approche GIRE (Gestion Int��gr��e des Ressources en Eau). Au niveau de la l��gislation, il s��av��re n��cessaire de proposer de nouvelles lois, d��crets et r��glements qui soient en accord avec notre r��alit��, en opposition �� un important lot d��instruments juridiques inapplicables, obsol��tes et de compr��hension difficile. La construction du barrage de Poil��o a produit des impacts environnementaux, socio-��conomiques et sur l��irrigation. Il s��agit de trouver un mod��le de gestion qui s��adapte �� la r��alit�� du Cap Vert et de l����le de Santiago, regroupant tous les partenaires pour une gestion durable de la vall��e de Ribeira Seca et qui puisse servir d��exemple aux futurs barrages �� construire.

Hypothesis on immigration and welfare

The number of hypothesis trying to explain which are the reasons behind the decision to migrate to work into a developed country are diverse and at the same time, difficult to test due to the multiplicity of factors which affect it. This papers attempts to move forward trying to disentangle which are the socio-economic factors that explain the differences in the figures of immigrants in the OECD countries. We show empirical evidence about the determinants of the migratory flows to 17 OECD countries from 65 countries in the 1980-2000 period. Our results reveal the importance to differentiate the inflows composition by at least income in the origin countries. Thus, regarding inflows from non-high-income countries, the results suggest that there is a pull effect from monetary and not real income, and then, the welfare magnets hypothesis should be rejected. This group reacts more to the migratory policy than the inflows coming from high-income countries, although those policies designed to slow down the inflows have not been able, in the aggregate, to reduce them.

Increasing prevalence of obesity in the Seychelles and association with socioeconomic status

Objective: We assessed the 15-year trends in the distribution of body mass index (BMI) categories in the Seychelles (Indian Ocean, African Region) and the relationship with sex, age and socio-economic status (SES). Methods: We conducted three population-based examination surveys in 1989 (n=1,081; participation rate: 86.4%), in 1994 (n=1,067; 87.0%), and in 2004 (n=1,255; 80.2%). Occupation was categorized as "laborer", "intermediate" or "professional". Results are adjusted to the population of 2002. Results: Between 1989 and 2004, mean BMI increased markedly in all sex and age categories (overall: ∼0.15 kg/m2/calendar year). The prevalence of overweight and obesity combined ("excess weight", BMI ≥25 kg/m2) increased from 29% to 52% in men and from 50% to 67% in women. The prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) increased from 4% to 15% in men and from 23% to 34% in women. Mean BMI - respectively the prevalence of excess weight- was lower in laborers than professionals in men but higher in laborers that professionals in women and this pattern was similar in the three surveys. Odds ratios for excess weight in professionals vs. laborers were 2.10 (95% CI: 1.94-2.17) in men and 0.51 (0.48-0.53) in women, adjusting for calendar year and participants' age and smoking habits. Conclusion: The prevalence of overweight/obesity increased markedly during a 15- year period. Similar increase of BMI over time in all age and sex categories suggests common environment obesogenic factors. The association between SES and excess weight was in opposite directions in men and women. The study emphasizes the need for prevention measures in all sex, age and SES groups, and suggests that they should be tailored according to sex and SES categories.

Male beach workers and western female tourists : livelihood strategies in Kenya's south coast region

Recent years have seen an emerging knowledge base and increasing public interest and awareness of sexual-economic relationships between local men and Western women, in different touristic regions around the world. However, to date, Western perspectives on the phenomenon make up the bulk of the existent literature. Questioning the dominant discourse of 'romance tourism' and representations of male participants as 'victims-opportunists', this dissertation explores male beach workers' experiences with, and perspectives on sexual-economic relationships between Kenyan men and visiting Western women in Kenya's South Coast region. The men were not considered in isolation; their experiences and perspectives are situated in relation to their family ties, social networks and the political economy of beach tourism. The study shows that locally these relationships are clearly understood as livelihood strategies for the visited. Men seek to establish long-term intimate relationships with female tourists as a means to accessing life's basic necessities for themselves and for their families and overall to improve their standards of living. It is argued that these relationships are a response to the poverty and inequalities generated by socio-economic changes over time. They are also a response to local gender role prescriptions that hinge male social value on men's capacity to marry, procreate and provide intergenerational social and economic support. The men's parallel quest for non-sexual economically motivated friendships with visiting foreign tourists termed "family friends" is a salient finding, that serves to reinforce the finding that the sexual- economic relationships are above all livelihood strategies. R��sum�� Ces derni��res ann��es ont vu l'��mergence d'une base de connaissance, ainsi que d'un int��r��t et d'une prise de conscience accrue du public, �� l'��gard des relations ��conomico-sexuelles entre hommes locaux et femmes occidentales, dans diff��rentes r��gions touristiques du monde. Cependant, �� ce jour, des perspectives occidentales sur ce ph��nom��ne constituent l'essentiel de la litt��rature existante. En remettant en question le discours dominant du ��romance tourism�� (tourisme sentimental) et les repr��sentations qui con��oivent les hommes participants comme ��tant 'victimes-opportunistes', cette th��se explore les exp��riences, et les visions qu'ont les travailleurs de plage sur les relations ��conomico-sexuelles entre hommes Kenyans et femmes Occidentales dans la r��gion de la c��te sud du Kenya. Les hommes n'ont pas ��t�� consid��r��s de mani��re isol��e; leurs exp��riences et leurs perspectives sont situ��es par rapport �� leur liens familiaux, leur r��seaux sociaux et aussi par rapport �� l'��conomie politique du tourisme baln��aire. L'��tude montre que sur place ces relations sont clairement con��ues comme des strat��gies de survie pour les participants h��tes. Les hommes cherchent �� ��tablir des relations de long dur��e avec des femmes touristes comme moyen d'acc��der �� des biens et des services qui constituent des n��cessit��s de bases, pour eux et pour leur familles et globalement pour relever leur niveau de vie! L'��tude fait valoir que ces relations sont une r��ponse �� la pauvret�� et aux in��galit��s sociales cr��es par des dynamiques socio-��conomiques au fil du temps. Elles sont aussi une r��ponse au prescriptions sociales locales par lesquelles la valeur sociale masculine est d��finie �� travers la capacit�� des hommes �� se marier, �� procr��er et d'assurer un soutien interg��n��rationnel social et ��conomique. La qu��te, en parall��le, de relations d'amiti��s non-sexuelles �� motivation ��conomique, d��nomm�� �� family friends ��, par des hommes, est un r��sultat saillant de cette ��tude qui vient renforcer l'observation que les relations ��conomico-sexuelles rel��vent avant tout des strat��gies de survie.

Sustainability of the Peruvian anchoveta supply chains from sea to shelf: towards a new strategy for optimal use of resources

The research performed a sustainability assessment of supply chains of the anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) in Peru. The corresponding fisheries lands 6.5 million t per year, of which <2% is rendered into products for direct human consumption (DHC) and 98% reduced into feed ingredients (fishmeal and fish oil, FMFO), for export. Several industries compete for the anchoveta resources, generating local and global impacts. The need for understanding these dynamics, towards sustainability-improving management and policy recommendations, determined the development of a sustainability assessment framework: 1) characterisation and modelling of the systems under study (with Life Cycle Assessment and other tools) including local aquaculture, 2) calculation of sustainability indicators (i.e. energy efficiency, nutritional value, socio-economic performances), and 3) sustainability comparison of supply chains; definition and comparison of alternative exploitation scenarios. Future exploitation scenarios were defined by combining an ecosystem and a material flow models: continuation of the status quo (Scenario 1), shift towards increased proportion of DHC production (Scenario 2), and radical reduction of the anchoveta harvest in order for other fish stocks to recover and be exploited for DHC (Scenario 3). Scenario 2 was identified as the most sustainable. Management and policy recommendations include improving of: controls for compliance with management measures, sanitary conditions for DHC, landing infrastructure for small- and medium-scale (SMS) fisheries; the development of a national refrigerated distribution chain; and the assignation of flexible tolerances for discards from different DHC processes.

Decomposing Cross-Country Gaps in Obesity and Overweight: Does the Social Environment Matter?

[cat] Una q��esti�� clau sobre la producci�� de salut relativament poc explorada es refereix a la influ��ncia dels factors socioecon��mics i mediambientals sobre el pes i l���obesitat. Aquesta problem��tica adquireix particular rellev��ncia quan es comparen dos pa��sos Mediterranis com It��lia i Espanya. ��s interessant adonar-se que l���obesitat a Espanya ��s 5 punts percentual m��s elevada al 2003 mentre que a l���any 1990 era aproximadament la mateixa en ambd��s pa��sos. Aquesta article presenta una descomposici�� no lineal dels gaps o diferencials en taxes de sobrep��s (��ndex de massa corporal ��� IMC- entre 25 i 29.9 9 kg/m2), obesitat classe 1 (IMC���30 kg/m2) i classe 2 (IMC���35 kg/m2) entre Espanya i It��lia per g��nere i grups d���edat. En explicar aquests gaps entre pa��sos a��llem les influ��ncies dels estils de vida, els efectes socioecon��mics i els mediambientals. Els nostres resultats indiquen que quan no es controla pels efectes mediambientals (efectes de grup o ���peer effects���) els h��bits alimentaris i el nivell educatiu s��n els principals predictors del gaps totals entre pa��sos (36-52%), si b�� aquests dos factors exerceixen un impacte diferenciat segons g��nere i edat. Un tant paradoxalment, quan controlem pels efectes de grup aquests predictors perden la seva capacitat explicativa i els efectes de grup passen a explicar entre el 46-76% dels gaps en sobrep��s i obesitat i mostren un patr�� creixent amb l���edat.

A Transportation Safety Planning Tool for the City of Ames, August 2011

The historically-reactive approach to identifying safety problems and mitigating them involves selecting black spots or hot spots by ranking locations based on crash frequency and severity. The approach focuses mainly on the corridor level without taking the exposure rate (vehicle miles traveled) and socio-demographics information of the study area, which are very important in the transportation planning process, into consideration. A larger study analysis unit at the Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) level or the network planning level should be used to address the needs of development of the community in the future and incorporate safety into the long-range transportation planning process. In this study, existing planning tools (such as the PLANSAFE models presented in NCHRP Report 546) were evaluated for forecasting safety in small and medium-sized communities, particularly as related to changes in socio-demographics characteristics, traffic demand, road network, and countermeasures. The research also evaluated the applicability of the Empirical Bayes (EB) method to network-level analysis. In addition, application of the United States Road Assessment Program (usRAP) protocols at the local urban road network level was investigated. This research evaluated the applicability of these three methods for the City of Ames, Iowa. The outcome of this research is a systematic process and framework for considering road safety issues explicitly in the small and medium-sized community transportation planning process and for quantifying the safety impacts of new developments and policy programs. More specifically, quantitative safety may be incorporated into the planning process, through effective visualization and increased awareness of safety issues (usRAP), the identification of high-risk locations with potential for improvement, (usRAP maps and EB), countermeasures for high-risk locations (EB before and after study and PLANSAFE), and socio-economic and demographic induced changes at the planning-level (PLANSAFE).

Community Policing in Switzerland's Major Urban Areas: An Observational Study of the Implementation and Impact Using Geospatial Data Mining

La pr��sente ��tude est �� la fois une ��valuation du processus de la mise en oeuvre et des impacts de la police de proximit�� dans les cinq plus grandes zones urbaines de Suisse - B��le, Berne, Gen��ve, Lausanne et Zurich. La police de proximit�� (community policing) est �� la fois une philosophie et une strat��gie organisationnelle qui favorise un partenariat renouvel�� entre la police et les communaut��s locales dans le but de r��soudre les probl��mes relatifs �� la s��curit�� et �� l'ordre public. L'��valuation de processus a analys�� des donn��es relatives aux r��formes internes de la police qui ont ��t�� obtenues par l'interm��diaire d'entretiens semi-structur��s avec des administrateurs cl��s des cinq d��partements de police, ainsi que dans des documents ��crits de la police et d'autres sources publiques. L'��valuation des impacts, quant �� elle, s'est bas��e sur des variables contextuelles telles que des statistiques polici��res et des donn��es de recensement, ainsi que sur des indicateurs d'impacts construit �� partir des donn��es du Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) relatives au sentiment d'ins��curit��, �� la perception du d��sordre public et �� la satisfaction de la population �� l'��gard de la police. Le SCS est un sondage r��gulier qui a permis d'interroger des habitants des cinq grandes zones urbaines �� plusieurs reprises depuis le milieu des ann��es 1980. L'��valuation de processus a abouti �� un �� Calendrier des activit��s �� visant �� cr��er des donn��es de panel permettant de mesurer les progr��s r��alis��s dans la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximit�� �� l'aide d'une grille d'��valuation �� six dimensions �� des intervalles de cinq ans entre 1990 et 2010. L'��valuation des impacts, effectu��e ex post facto, a utilis�� un concept de recherche non-exp��rimental (observational design) dans le but d'analyser les impacts de diff��rents mod��les de police de proximit�� dans des zones comparables �� travers les cinq villes ��tudi��es. Les quartiers urbains, d��limit��s par zone de code postal, ont ainsi ��t�� regroup��s par l'interm��diaire d'une typologie r��alis��e �� l'aide d'algorithmes d'apprentissage automatique (machine learning). Des algorithmes supervis��s et non supervis��s ont ��t�� utilis��s sur les donn��es �� haute dimensionnalit�� relatives �� la criminalit��, �� la structure socio-��conomique et d��mographique et au cadre b��ti dans le but de regrouper les quartiers urbains les plus similaires dans des clusters. D'abord, les cartes auto-organisatrices (self-organizing maps) ont ��t�� utilis��es dans le but de r��duire la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et de maximiser simultan��ment la variance inter-cluster des r��ponses au sondage. Ensuite, l'algorithme des for��ts d'arbres d��cisionnels (random forests) a permis �� la fois d'��valuer la pertinence de la typologie de quartier ��labor��e et de s��lectionner les variables contextuelles cl��s afin de construire un mod��le parcimonieux faisant un minimum d'erreurs de classification. Enfin, pour l'analyse des impacts, la m��thode des appariements des coefficients de propension (propensity score matching) a ��t�� utilis��e pour ��quilibrer les ��chantillons pr��test-posttest en termes d'��ge, de sexe et de niveau d'��ducation des r��pondants au sein de chaque type de quartier ainsi identifi�� dans chacune des villes, avant d'effectuer un test statistique de la diff��rence observ��e dans les indicateurs d'impacts. De plus, tous les r��sultats statistiquement significatifs ont ��t�� soumis �� une analyse de sensibilit�� (sensitivity analysis) afin d'��valuer leur robustesse face �� un biais potentiel d�� �� des covariables non observ��es. L'��tude rel��ve qu'au cours des quinze derni��res ann��es, les cinq services de police ont entam�� des r��formes majeures de leur organisation ainsi que de leurs strat��gies op��rationnelles et qu'ils ont nou�� des partenariats strat��giques afin de mettre en oeuvre la police de proximit��. La typologie de quartier d��velopp��e a abouti �� une r��duction de la variance intra-cluster des variables contextuelles et permet d'expliquer une partie significative de la variance inter-cluster des indicateurs d'impacts avant la mise en oeuvre du traitement. Ceci semble sugg��rer que les m��thodes de g��ocomputation aident �� ��quilibrer les covariables observ��es et donc �� r��duire les menaces relatives �� la validit�� interne d'un concept de recherche non-exp��rimental. Enfin, l'analyse des impacts a r��v��l�� que le sentiment d'ins��curit�� a diminu�� de mani��re significative pendant la p��riode 2000-2005 dans les quartiers se trouvant �� l'int��rieur et autour des centres-villes de Berne et de Zurich. Ces am��liorations sont assez robustes face �� des biais dus �� des covariables inobserv��es et covarient dans le temps et l'espace avec la mise en oeuvre de la police de proximit��. L'hypoth��se alternative envisageant que les diminutions observ��es dans le sentiment d'ins��curit�� soient, partiellement, un r��sultat des interventions polici��res de proximit�� semble donc ��tre aussi plausible que l'hypoth��se nulle consid��rant l'absence absolue d'effet. Ceci, m��me si le concept de recherche non-exp��rimental mis en oeuvre ne peut pas compl��tement exclure la s��lection et la r��gression �� la moyenne comme explications alternatives. The current research project is both a process and impact evaluation of community policing in Switzerland's five major urban areas - Basel, Bern, Geneva, Lausanne, and Zurich. Community policing is both a philosophy and an organizational strategy that promotes a renewed partnership between the police and the community to solve problems of crime and disorder. The process evaluation data on police internal reforms were obtained through semi-structured interviews with key administrators from the five police departments as well as from police internal documents and additional public sources. The impact evaluation uses official crime records and census statistics as contextual variables as well as Swiss Crime Survey (SCS) data on fear of crime, perceptions of disorder, and public attitudes towards the police as outcome measures. The SCS is a standing survey instrument that has polled residents of the five urban areas repeatedly since the mid-1980s. The process evaluation produced a "Calendar of Action" to create panel data to measure community policing implementation progress over six evaluative dimensions in intervals of five years between 1990 and 2010. The impact evaluation, carried out ex post facto, uses an observational design that analyzes the impact of the different community policing models between matched comparison areas across the five cities. Using ZIP code districts as proxies for urban neighborhoods, geospatial data mining algorithms serve to develop a neighborhood typology in order to match the comparison areas. To this end, both unsupervised and supervised algorithms are used to analyze high-dimensional data on crime, the socio-economic and demographic structure, and the built environment in order to classify urban neighborhoods into clusters of similar type. In a first step, self-organizing maps serve as tools to develop a clustering algorithm that reduces the within-cluster variance in the contextual variables and simultaneously maximizes the between-cluster variance in survey responses. The random forests algorithm then serves to assess the appropriateness of the resulting neighborhood typology and to select the key contextual variables in order to build a parsimonious model that makes a minimum of classification errors. Finally, for the impact analysis, propensity score matching methods are used to match the survey respondents of the pretest and posttest samples on age, gender, and their level of education for each neighborhood type identified within each city, before conducting a statistical test of the observed difference in the outcome measures. Moreover, all significant results were subjected to a sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of these findings in the face of potential bias due to some unobserved covariates. The study finds that over the last fifteen years, all five police departments have undertaken major reforms of their internal organization and operating strategies and forged strategic partnerships in order to implement community policing. The resulting neighborhood typology reduced the within-cluster variance of the contextual variables and accounted for a significant share of the between-cluster variance in the outcome measures prior to treatment, suggesting that geocomputational methods help to balance the observed covariates and hence to reduce threats to the internal validity of an observational design. Finally, the impact analysis revealed that fear of crime dropped significantly over the 2000-2005 period in the neighborhoods in and around the urban centers of Bern and Zurich. These improvements are fairly robust in the face of bias due to some unobserved covariate and covary temporally and spatially with the implementation of community policing. The alternative hypothesis that the observed reductions in fear of crime were at least in part a result of community policing interventions thus appears at least as plausible as the null hypothesis of absolutely no effect, even if the observational design cannot completely rule out selection and regression to the mean as alternative explanations.

Analysis, modelling and visualisation of spatiotemporal data for urban studies

The proportion of population living in or around cites is more important than ever. Urban sprawl and car dependence have taken over the pedestrian-friendly compact city. Environmental problems like air pollution, land waste or noise, and health problems are the result of this still continuing process. The urban planners have to find solutions to these complex problems, and at the same time insure the economic performance of the city and its surroundings. At the same time, an increasing quantity of socio-economic and environmental data is acquired. In order to get a better understanding of the processes and phenomena taking place in the complex urban environment, these data should be analysed. Numerous methods for modelling and simulating such a system exist and are still under development and can be exploited by the urban geographers for improving our understanding of the urban metabolism. Modern and innovative visualisation techniques help in communicating the results of such models and simulations. This thesis covers several methods for analysis, modelling, simulation and visualisation of problems related to urban geography. The analysis of high dimensional socio-economic data using artificial neural network techniques, especially self-organising maps, is showed using two examples at different scales. The problem of spatiotemporal modelling and data representation is treated and some possible solutions are shown. The simulation of urban dynamics and more specifically the traffic due to commuting to work is illustrated using multi-agent micro-simulation techniques. A section on visualisation methods presents cartograms for transforming the geographic space into a feature space, and the distance circle map, a centre-based map representation particularly useful for urban agglomerations. Some issues on the importance of scale in urban analysis and clustering of urban phenomena are exposed. A new approach on how to define urban areas at different scales is developed, and the link with percolation theory established. Fractal statistics, especially the lacunarity measure, and scale laws are used for characterising urban clusters. In a last section, the population evolution is modelled using a model close to the well-established gravity model. The work covers quite a wide range of methods useful in urban geography. Methods should still be developed further and at the same time find their way into the daily work and decision process of urban planners. La part de personnes vivant dans une r��gion urbaine est plus ��lev�� que jamais et continue �� cro��tre. L'��talement urbain et la d��pendance automobile ont supplant�� la ville compacte adapt��e aux pi��tons. La pollution de l'air, le gaspillage du sol, le bruit, et des probl��mes de sant�� pour les habitants en sont la cons��quence. Les urbanistes doivent trouver, ensemble avec toute la soci��t��, des solutions �� ces probl��mes complexes. En m��me temps, il faut assurer la performance ��conomique de la ville et de sa r��gion. Actuellement, une quantit�� grandissante de donn��es socio-��conomiques et environnementales est r��colt��e. Pour mieux comprendre les processus et ph��nom��nes du syst��me complexe "ville", ces donn��es doivent ��tre trait��es et analys��es. Des nombreuses m��thodes pour mod��liser et simuler un tel syst��me existent et sont continuellement en d��veloppement. Elles peuvent ��tre exploit��es par le g��ographe urbain pour am��liorer sa connaissance du m��tabolisme urbain. Des techniques modernes et innovatrices de visualisation aident dans la communication des r��sultats de tels mod��les et simulations. Cette th��se d��crit plusieurs m��thodes permettant d'analyser, de mod��liser, de simuler et de visualiser des ph��nom��nes urbains. L'analyse de donn��es socio-��conomiques �� tr��s haute dimension �� l'aide de r��seaux de neurones artificiels, notamment des cartes auto-organisatrices, est montr�� �� travers deux exemples aux ��chelles diff��rentes. Le probl��me de mod��lisation spatio-temporelle et de repr��sentation des donn��es est discut�� et quelques ��bauches de solutions esquiss��es. La simulation de la dynamique urbaine, et plus sp��cifiquement du trafic automobile engendr�� par les pendulaires est illustr��e �� l'aide d'une simulation multi-agents. Une section sur les m��thodes de visualisation montre des cartes en anamorphoses permettant de transformer l'espace g��ographique en espace fonctionnel. Un autre type de carte, les cartes circulaires, est pr��sent��. Ce type de carte est particuli��rement utile pour les agglom��rations urbaines. Quelques questions li��es �� l'importance de l'��chelle dans l'analyse urbaine sont ��galement discut��es. Une nouvelle approche pour d��finir des clusters urbains �� des ��chelles diff��rentes est d��velopp��e, et le lien avec la th��orie de la percolation est ��tabli. Des statistiques fractales, notamment la lacunarit��, sont utilis��es pour caract��riser ces clusters urbains. L'��volution de la population est mod��lis��e �� l'aide d'un mod��le proche du mod��le gravitaire bien connu. Le travail couvre une large panoplie de m��thodes utiles en g��ographie urbaine. Toutefois, il est toujours n��cessaire de d��velopper plus loin ces m��thodes et en m��me temps, elles doivent trouver leur chemin dans la vie quotidienne des urbanistes et planificateurs.

Contextual Effects on Hopelessness in the Second Half of the Life

Depression and suicidal ideation are tightly linked to the lack of hope in the future. Hopelessness begins with the occurrence of negative life events and develops through the perception that negative outcomes are stable and pervasive. Most of the research has investigated individual factors predicting hopelessness. However, other studies have shown that the social context may also play an important role: disadvantaged contexts exacerbate the feeling that future is unreachable and hopeless. In this study we investigate the role of shared emotions (emotional climates) on the sense of hopelessness during the second half of the life. Emotional climates have been defined as the emotional relationships constructed between members of a society and describe the quality of the environment within a particular community. We present results of multilevel analyses using data from the NCCR-LIVES769 project ����Vulnerability and growth����, the Swiss Household Panel and official statistics, that explore the relationship between characteristics of the Swiss cantons and hopelessness. Although hopelessness is mainly affected by individual factors as life events and personality, results show that canton socio-economic conditions and climates of optimism or pessimism have an effect on the individual perception of hopelessness. Individuals are more likely to feel hopeless after having experienced critical events (i.e., loss of the partner in the late life) in cantons with high rates of unemployment and with a high share of negative emotions. On the contrary, positive emotional climates play a protective role against hopelessness.