Highs and lows

The past year has been a mixed one for research in the addictions. The Global Burden of Disease study confirmed that alcohol was a major contributor to the burden of disease in developed countries, as a risk factor for injury and alcohol dependence (Murray). A 10-year study of 65 171 Kaiser Permanente Medical Care Program members found that regular marijuana use had little impact on mortality (Sidney). Its association with increased AIDS mortality in men, probably suggests that it is a marker for male homosexual behaviour. Reassurance about the mortality risks of marijuana is premature because the mean age at follow-up was only 43 years: cigarette smoking and alcohol use were only modestly associated with premature mortality.

Changes in estimated coronary risk in the 1980s: data from 38 populations in the WHO MONICA Project

The World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project is a 10-year study monitoring trends and determinants of cardiovascular disease in geographically defined populations. Data were collected from over 100 000 randomly selected participants in two risk factor surveys conducted approximately 5 years apart in 38 populations using standardized protocols. The net effects of changes in the risk factor levels were estimated using risk scores derived from longitudinal studies in the Nordic countries. The prevalence of cigarette smoking decreased among men in most populations, but the trends for women varied. The prevalence of hypertension declined in two-thirds of the populations. Changes in the prevalence of raised total cholesterol were small but highly correlated between the genders (r = 0.8). The prevalence of obesity increased in three-quarters of the populations for men and in more than half of the populations for women. In almost half of the populations there were statistically significant declines in the estimated coronary risk for both men and women, although for Beijing the risk score increased significantly for both genders. The net effect of the changes in the risk factor levels in the 1980s in most of the study populations of the WHO MONICA Project is that the rates of coronary disease are predicted to decline in the 1990s.

What is a healthy weight for middle aged women?

OBJECTIVE: To explore associations between body mass index (BMI) and selected indicators of health and well-being and to suggest a healthy weight range (based on BMI) for middle aged Australian women. DESIGN: population based longitudinal study (cross-sectional baseline data). SUBJECTS: 13431 women aged 45-49 y who participated in the baseline survey for the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. RESULTS: Forty-eight percent of women had a BMI>25kg/m(2). Prevalence of medical problems (for example, hypertension, diabetes), surgical procedures (cholescystectomy, hysterectomy) and symptoms (for example, back pain) increased monotonically with BMI, while indicators of health care use (for example, visits to doctors) showed a 'J' shaped relationship with BMI. Scores for several sub-scales of the MOS short form health survey (SF36) (for example, general health, role limitations due to emotional difficulties, social function, mental health and vitality) were optimal when BMI was around 19-24 kg/m(2). After adjustment for area of residence, education, smoking, exercise and menopausal status, low BMI was associated with fewer physical health problems than mid-level or higher BMI, and the nationally recommended BMI range of 20-25 was associated with optimum mental health, lower prevalence of tiredness and lowest use of health services. CONCLUSIONS: Acknowledging the limitations of the cross-sectional nature of these data, the results firmly support the benefits of leanness in terms of reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease, diabetes and gall bladder disease. The findings are moderated, however, by the observation that both low and high BMI are associated with decreased vitality and poorer mental health. The optimal range for BMI appears to be about 19-24 kg/m(2). From a public health perspective this study provides strong support for the recommended BMI range of 20-25 as an appropriate target for the promotion of healthy weight in middle aged Australian women.

The epidemiology of Parkinson's disease in an Australian population

A prevalence study of Parkinson's disease (PD) was conducted in the rural town of Nambour, Australia. There were 5 cases of PD in a study population of 1207, yielding a crude prevalence ratio of 414 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval; 53-775). We performed a separate case-control study involving 224 patients with FD and 310 controls from South East Queensland and Central West New South Wales, to determine which factors increase the risk for PD in Australia. A positive family history of PD was the strongest risk factor for the development of the disease (odds ratio = 3.4; p < 0.001). In addition, rural residency was a significant risk factor for PD (odds ratio = 1.8, p < 0.001). Hypertension, stroke and well water ingestion were inversely correlated with the development of PD. There was no significant difference between patients and controls for exposure to herbicides and pesticides, head injury, smoking or depression. The high prevalence of PD in Nambour may be explained by rural residency. However, the most significant risk factor for PD was a positive family history. This demonstrates the need for improved understanding of the genetic nature of the disease.

Adverse effects of cannabis

Cannabis is the most widely used illicit drug in many developed societies. Its health and psychological effects are not well understood and remain the subject of much debate, with opinions on its risks polarised along the lines of proponents' views on what its legal status should be. An unfortunate consequence of this polarisation of opinion has been the absence of any consensus on what health information the medical profession should give to patients who are users or potential users of cannabis. There is conflicting evidence about many of the effects of cannabis use, so we summarise the evidence on the most probable adverse health and psychological consequences of acute and chronic use. This uncertainty, however, should not prevent medical practitioners from advising patients about the most likely ill-effects of their cannabis use. Here we make some suggestions about the advice doctors can give to patients who use, or are contemplating the use, of this drug.

Coronary events and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke: a case-control study from Australia and New Zealand

Objectives-To estimate the relative risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) associated with exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS). Design-Population-based case-control study. Subjects-Cases were 953 people identified in a population register of coronary events, and controls were 3189 participants in independent community-based risk factor prevalence surveys from the same study populations. Setting-Newcastle, Australia and Auckland, New Zealand. Main outcome measures-Acute myocardial infarction or coronary death. Results-After adjusting for the effects of age, education, history of heart disease, and body mass index, women had a statistically significant increased risk of a coronary event associated with exposure to ETS (relative risk (RR) = 1.99; 95% confidence interval (CI)= 1.40-2.81). There was little statistical evidence of increased risk found in men (RR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.81-1.28). Conclusion-Our study found evidence for the adverse effects of exposure to ETS on risk of coronary heart disease among women, especially at home. For men the issue is unclear according to the data from our study. Additional studies with detailed information on possible confounders and adequate statistical power are needed. Most importantly, they should use methods for measuring exposure to ETS that are sufficiently accurate to permit the investigation of dose-response relationships.

Tailored advice on exercise - Does it make a difference?

Objectives: A controlled trial to compare the effectiveness of verbal advice from a family physician (FP) combined with either standard or tailored written information on physical activity in increasing the levels of physical activity in sedentary patients. Design: Sedentary patients (n = 763) were recruited through ten family practices and allocated to a control group or one of two intervention groups, Brief advice on physical activity was given by the FP during the consultation and either a standard or tailored pamphlet was mailed to the home address of patients assigned to the intervention groups within two days of their visit to the FP. Results: The response to follow-up, via a postal survey at one, six, and twelve months after the index consultation was 70%, 60%, and 57%, respectively. Treating all nonresponders as sedentary, the results revealed that although more tailored subjects reported some physical activity at each follow-up compared with the standard group, these differences were not significant, Furthermore, there was no significant difference in movement across the stages of readiness to exercise at follow-up between subjects in the tailored group who received material targeting their current stage (precontemplation or contemplation) and the standard group who received generic material that addressed both stages. Conclusion: These findings do not concur with the results from previous research in the areas of nutrition and smoking cessation where additional benefits were seen with a tailored intervention. Future research on the application of the principles of tailoring to the promotion of physical activity should focus on identifying which, if any, physical, social, psychological or environmental variables should be addressed to produce improved outcomes over and above the effects of well designed generic materials. (C) 1999 American Journal of Preventive Medicine.

Changing patterns of coronary heart disease in the hunter region of New South Wales, Australia

A population-based observational study of men acid women aged 35-69 years in the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia, was conducted to assess the impact. of risk-factor modification and increased drug therapy on the trends in major coronary events and case fatality. From 1985 to 1993, there were 3006 coronary deaths and 6450 nonfatal major coronary events. Rates of death and nonfatal myocardial infarction declined, but there was an increase in hospital admissions for prolonged chess pain. Reductions in cigarette smoking, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and increased use of aspirin can fully explain the 3.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.4, 4.2) average annual reduction in rates of major coronary events for men and the 4.1% (95% CI 2.7, 5.5) reduction for women. In contrast, increased use of aspirin, beta-blockers, fibrinolytic therapy, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors explain less than hall of the 8.9% (95% CI 5.9, 11.8) and 6.9% (95% CI 2.7, 10.9) average annual reduction in case fatality in hospital for men and women, respectively. These trends suggest a decline in severity of coronary heart disease consistent with reductions in risk-factor levels and improved acute medical treatment. J CLIN EPIDEMIOL 52;8:761-771, 1999. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.

Effect of smoke-free policies on the behaviour of social smokers

Objective-To test the hypothesis that proposed amendments to the Occupational Safety and Health Act making all enclosed workplaces in Western Australia smoke free would result in a decrease in cigarette consumption by patrons at nightclubs, pubs, and restaurants without adversely affecting attendance. Design-Cross sectional structured interview survey. Participants and setting-Patrons of several inner city pubs and nightclubs in Perth were interviewed while queuing for admission to these venues. Outcome measures-Current social habits, smoking habits, and how these might be affected by the proposed regulations. Persons who did not smoke daily were classified as social smokers. Results-Half (50%) of the 374 patrons interviewed were male, 51% currently did not smoke at all, 34.3% smoked every day, and the remaining 15.7% smoked, brat not every day. A clear majority (62.5%) of all 374 respondents anticipated no change to the frequency of their patronage of hospitality venues if smoke-free policies became mandatory One in five (19.3%) indicated that they would,ao out more often, and 18.2% said they would go out less often. Half (52%) of daily smokers anticipated no change to their cigarette consumption, while 44.5% of daily smokers anticipated a reduction in consumption. A majority of social smokers (54%) predicted a reduction in their cigarette consumption, with 42% of these anticipating quitting. Conclusions-One in nine (11.5%) of smokers say that adoption of smoke-Pi ee policies would prompt them to quit smoking entirely without a significant decrease in attendance at pubs and nightclubs. There can be few other initiatives as simple, cheap, and popular that would achieve so much for public health.

Do simple prudent health behaviours protect men from myocardial infarction?

Background We tested whether behaviours such as discarding obvious fat on meat, cessation of smoking, avoidance of passive smoking, habitual use of reduced fat milk, prudent consumption of alcohol and regular but moderate physical exercise are associated with a reduction of cardiovascular risk. Methods This was a population-based case-control study done in Perth, Western Australia. The cases (n = 336) were men aged 27-64 years with a first-ever acute myocardial infarction (AMI) during the period 1992-1993, and who survived at least 28 days. The controls (n = 735) were participants in a population-based survey of cardiovascular risk factors conducted during May-November 1994. Both groups completed the same questionnaire and the data were analysed with multiple logistic regression using backward elimination technique. Results Among men aged 27-64 years simple measures such as participation in non-vigorous exercise (odds ratio [OR] = 0.5, 95% CI : 0.4-0.7), and avoidance of added salt (OR = 0.6, 95% CI : 0.4-0.9) are associated with significant and Important protection from AMI. Conclusion After 25 years of falling mortality in Australia, lifestyles can still be significantly improved to reduce heart disease even further.

Beyond ovulation: Oral contraceptives and epithelial ovarian cancer

In a case-control study in three Australian states that included 794 women with epithelial ovarian cancer and 853 community controls for whom we had adequate contraceptive and reproductive histories, Re examined the effects of oral contraceptive use after controlling for estimated number of ovulatory cycles. Other covariates included in the multiple logistic regression analysis were parity, smoking, and history of pelvic surgery. The protective effect of duration of oral contraceptive use appeared to be multiplicative, with a 7% decrease in relative risk per year [95% confidence interval (CI) = 4-9%], persisting beyond 15 years of exposure. Use for up to 1 year may have a greater effect than predicted (odds ratio = 0.57; 95% CI = 0.40-0.82), whereas use before the first pregnancy may be additionally beneficial (odds ratio = 0.95; 95% CI = 0.87-1.03, adjusted for overall duration of use). Better control for ovulatory life might attenuate these estimates somewhat. There was little evidence of waning protection with time since last exposure or of extra benefit with early commencement of oral contraceptive use. We found no convincing evidence of effect modification in any factor examined or differences in effect among the three main histologic cancer types or between borderline and malignant tumors. Oral contraceptives may act by both suppressing ovulation and altering the tumor-promoting milieu.

Estimation of contribution of changes in classic risk factors to trends in coronary-event rates across the WHO MONICA Project populations

Background From the mid-1980s to mid-1990s, the WHO MONICA Project monitored coronary events and classic risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) in 38 populations from 21 countries. We assessed the extent to which changes in these risk factors explain the variation in the trends in coronary-event rates across the populations. Methods In men and women aged 35-64 years, non-fatal myocardial infarction and coronary deaths were registered continuously to assess trends in rates of coronary events. We carried out population surveys to estimate trends in risk factors. Trends in event rates were regressed on trends in risk score and in individual risk factors. Findings Smoking rates decreased in most male populations but trends were mixed in women; mean blood pressures and cholesterol concentrations decreased, body-mass index increased, and overall risk scores and coronary-event rates decreased. The model of trends in 10-year coronary-event rates against risk scores and single risk factors showed a poor fit, but this was improved with a 4-year time lag for coronary events. The explanatory power of the analyses was limited by imprecision of the estimates and homogeneity of trends in the study populations. Interpretation Changes in the classic risk factors seem to partly explain the variation in population trends in CHD. Residual variance is attributable to difficulties in measurement and analysis, including time lag, and to factors that were not included, such as medical interventions. The results support prevention policies based on the classic risk factors but suggest potential for prevention beyond these.

The Australian Burden of Disease Study: measuring the loss of health from diseases, injuries and risk factors

This is an overview of the first burden of disease and injury studies carried out in Australia. Methods developed for the World Bank and World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Study were adapted and applied to Australian population health data. Depression was found to be the top-ranking cause of non-fatal disease burden in Australia, causing 8% of the total years lost due to disability in 1996. Mental disorders overall were responsible for nearly 30% of the non-fatal disease burden. The leading causes of total disease burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) were ischaemic heart disease and stroke, together causing nearly 18% of the total disease burden. Depression was the fourth leading cause of disease burden, accounting for 3.7% of the total burden. Of the 10 major risk factors to which the disease burden can be attributed, tobacco smoking causes an estimated 10% of the total disease burden in Australia, followed by physical inactivity (7%).

Longitudinal research: methods for maximizing subject follow-up

Early intervention for hazardous alcohol use has been shown repeatedly to be effective in reducing alcohol consumption, limiting alcohol-related problems and improving biochemical parameters. However, in most studies the follow-up period has been 2 years or less. The current paper presents progress on a 10-year follow-up of a randomized controlled trial of early intervention. Methods used for tracing subjects and ensuring minimal refusals are detailed. The intensity of effort required to locate subjects is documented and recommendations for ensuring good follow-up rates are made. At completion of follow-up, 72.5% of the sample reviewed here and 78.2% of the total cohort had been traced. Our experiences demonstrate that long-term follow-up is feasible, given sufficient planning and persistence.