An assessment of empirical Bayes and composite estimators for small areas

We compare a set of empirical Bayes and composite estimators of the population means of the districts (small areas) of a country, and show that the natural modelling strategy of searching for a well fitting empirical Bayes model and using it for estimation of the area-level means can be inefficient.

O poder local em Timor em contexto multicultural

O trabalho que agora se apresenta é fruto, antes de mais, de uma relação especial com Timor. Não necessariamente pela dimensão histórica das várias presenças naquele território mas, e acima de tudo, pela relação pessoal e afectiva com alguns dos responsáveis políticos e religiosos daquele jovem país. Um convite, formulado em 2007 por Xanana Gusmão, levou-nos a calcorrear todo o território num curto espaço de três semanas, corria o Verão de 2008. O objectivo era a análise, no terreno, da viabilidade da instalação de um poder local num país recentemente tornado independente. Timor, fruto da sua história e, muito em especial, das características antropológicas do seu povo, é uma nação assumidamente multicultural. Das origens ancestrais das suas comunidades, dos reinos dispersos que pulverizam o pequeno território, das suas lideranças e dos vários dilectos, associados à longa e marcante presença portuguesa, bem como outras ocupações de países estrangeiros, com destaque para a Indonésia, resulta um caldo cultural, a todos os níveis peculiar. Aqui e acolá ouvimos o povo, entrevistámos e reunimos com os 432 chefes de suco existentes no país, entrevistámos chefes de aldeia e anciãos, reunimos com políticos, sacerdotes, professores e jornalistas. Interpretámos, ou tentámos interpretar, as condicionantes e os cuidados que se devem observar na preparação do quadro jurídico para reger a municipalidade em Timor: as suas vertentes electivas, funcionais, financeiras e fiscalizadoras. Revistámos a História de Timor e passámos por Cabo Verde, país de referência internacional ao nível da sua gestão pública, muito em especial a autárquica. Fizemos, também, óbvia referência à história do poder local em Portugal. Das consultas, do muito que observámos e estudámos, resulta um desinteressado contributo para a implementação do poder local em Timor, com as conclusões que incorporam alertas e sugestões.

O poder local em Timor em contexto multicultural

This study, now on presentation, comes as a result of a special relationship established with East Timor. Not necessarily through the several historical presences in that territory but, above all, through the emotional and personal relationships with some of the political and religious leaders of this young country. An invitation, made in 2007 by Xanana Gusmão, led us throughout the whole territory in a short time of three weeks, running the summer of 2008. Its purpose was the analysis, on the ground, of the possibility of installing local administration in a country which had recently became independent. Timor, as a result of its history, but mostly of the anthropological characteristics of its people, is an openly multicultural nation. The ancestral origins of their communities, its scattered kingdoms that spray along such a small territory, its leaders and many dialects, associated with the long portuguese presence, as well as other occupations made by foreign countries, especially Indonesia, became a cultural melting pot truly unique. Here and there we heard the people and interviewed and met the 432 local elected leaders of the country. We interviewed village elders and meet with politicians, priests, teachers and journalists. We have interpreted, or tried to, the actual conditions and cautions that must be observed in preparing the legal framework to govern the municipality in East Timor: its elective, functional, financial and oversight aspects. We have reviewed Timor’s history and took Cape Verde’s example as an international reference on its public administration, mostly its local authorities. We made also the obvious reference to the portuguese local government’s history. From search, and much of the observed and studied, remains a selfless contribution to the implementation of local government in East Timor, with alerts that incorporate conclusions and suggestions.

On the performance of small-area estimators: Fixed vs. random area parameters

Most methods for small-area estimation are based on composite estimators derived from design- or model-based methods. A composite estimator is a linear combination of a direct and an indirect estimator with weights that usually depend on unknown parameters which need to be estimated. Although model-based small-area estimators are usually based on random-effects models, the assumption of fixed effects is at face value more appropriate.Model-based estimators are justified by the assumption of random (interchangeable) area effects; in practice, however, areas are not interchangeable. In the present paper we empirically assess the quality of several small-area estimators in the setting in which the area effects are treated as fixed. We consider two settings: one that draws samples from a theoretical population, and another that draws samples from an empirical population of a labor force register maintained by the National Institute of Social Security (NISS) of Catalonia. We distinguish two types of composite estimators: a) those that use weights that involve area specific estimates of bias and variance; and, b) those that use weights that involve a common variance and a common squared bias estimate for all the areas. We assess their precision and discuss alternatives to optimizing composite estimation in applications.

A structural model of Australia as a small open economy

This paper sets up and estimates a structuralmodel of Australia as a small open economyusing Bayesian techniques. Unlike other recentstudies, the paper shows that a small microfoundedmodel can capture the open economydimensions quite well. Specifically, the modelattributes a substantial fraction of the volatilityof domestic output and inflation to foreigndisturbances, close to what is suggested by unrestrictedVAR studies. The paper also investigatesthe effects of various exogenous shockson the Australian economy.

The small species of Belostoma Latreille (Heteroptera, Belostomatidae). III. A revision of oxyurum group, with a new species from Brazil and description of the male of B. noualhieri Montandon

Species of the oxyurum group (sensu Lauck) consist of five extant Neotropical small species, whose lengths range 15.0 to 20.0 mm. The anterior interocular width about 1.5 times the width of an eye and ventral diverticulum of phallus flattened, circular, and large are, in combination, diagnostic. The small species of the oxyurum group were included in the Lauck´s key to the identification of the species groups, without dealing with the species included in it because many of them are very similar in appearance. Therefore here we redescribe and key the Belostoma species of the oxyurum group. Belostoma oxyurum (Dufour) is newly recorded from Brazil (Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul). Holotype and lectotype are designated for B. oxyurum and B. sanctulum Montandon, respectively. The aspect of the prosternal keel, the ratio between the width of the ventral diverticulum of phallus and its length in ventral view, and the aspect of dorsal arms of ventral diverticulum have proven useful for better species delimitation. Based on specimens from Pará State (N. Brazil), Belostoma carajaensis Ribeiro & Estévez, sp. nov. is described and illustrated. This new species differs from B. sanctulum in having anteoculus shorter than interoculus and the dorsal arms of ventral diverticulum divergent and large. A male specimen of B. noualhieri Montandon was collected in São Paulo State and based mainly on features of male genitalia, this species is here also included under oxyurum group.

Nonlinear models and small sample performance of the generalized method of moments

In this paper I explore the issue of nonlinearity (both in the datageneration process and in the functional form that establishes therelationship between the parameters and the data) regarding the poorperformance of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) in small samples.To this purpose I build a sequence of models starting with a simple linearmodel and enlarging it progressively until I approximate a standard (nonlinear)neoclassical growth model. I then use simulation techniques to find the smallsample distribution of the GMM estimators in each of the models.

Anti-60kDa heat shock protein antibodies in fetal serum : a biomarker for unexplained small for gestational age fetuses

Rapport de synthèseObjectifsLe retard de croissance intrautérin (RCIU) est un problème affectant 10% des grossesses et est associé à une morbidité périnatale importante. Dans environ 80% des cas, une étiologie ou un facteur de risque majeur peuvent être identifiés. Mais près de 20% des cas sont considérés comme inexpliqués. La heat shock protéine 60kDa (HSP60) est une protéine fortement immunogène dont la synthèse est considérablement augmentée lors de conditions non- physiologiques. Les HSP60 humaines et bactériennes partagent un haut degré d'homologie de séquence ce qui peut engendrer une maladie auto-immune à la suite d'une infection bactérienne. Nous avons supposé que les RCIU inexpliqués pourraient être la conséquence d'une sensibilisation à l'HSP60 humaine.MéthodesLes RCIU inexpliqués ont été identifiés par mesure échographique avec un doppler normal, sans anomalies décelables chez la mère ou le foetus. Les sera foetaux ont été obtenus par cordocentèse, effectuée lors d'analyse du caryotype en cas de RCIU inexpliqué (groupe d'étude) ou pour le dépistage d'une incompatibilité Rhésus (groupe témoin). Ils ont été testés pour l'antigène HSP60 et les IgG et IgM anti-HSP60 par ELISA ainsi que pour d'autres paramètres immunitaires et hématologiques.RésultatsLes paramètres maternels sont similaires entre les 12 cas du groupe d'étude et les 23 cas du groupe contrôle. L'âge gestationnel moyen lors de la cordocentèse est de 29 semaines. Les IgM anti-HSP60 sont détectés dans 12 cas d'étude (100%) mais dans aucun cas contrôle (p <0,00017), les IgG anti-HSP60 dans 7 cas d'étude (58%) et un seul dans le groupe contrôle (p <0,001). Trois des quatre cas avec les taux d'IgM les plus élevés sont décédés. Il n'y a pas de différences entre les deux groupes quant aux taux d'antigène HSP60 ou d'autres marqueurs immunologiques ou hématologiques.ConclusionLes foetus avec un RCIU inexpliqué expriment un taux élevé d'anticorps IgM et IgG contre l'HSP60 humaine et le taux d'IgM est un facteur prédictif de la mortalité foetale. La détection de ces anticorps indique qu'une perturbation placentaire et une réaction auto-immune foetale liée à l'HSP60 sont associées à ce retard de développement chez le foetus.

Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy

We lay out a small open economy version of the Calvo sticky price model, and show how the equilibrium dynamics can be reduced to simple representation in domestic inflation and the output gap. We use the resulting framework to analyze the macroeconomic implications of three alternative rule-based policy regimes for the small open economy: domestic inflation and CPI-based Taylor rules, and an exchange rate peg. We show that a key difference amongthese regimes lies in the relative amount of exchange rate volatility that they entail. We also discuss a special case for which domestic inflation targeting constitutes the optimal policy, and where a simple second order approximation to the utility of the representative consumer can be derived and used to evaluate the welfare losses associated with the suboptimal rules.

Small-area estimation with spatial similarity

A class of composite estimators of small area quantities that exploit spatial (distancerelated)similarity is derived. It is based on a distribution-free model for the areas, but theestimators are aimed to have optimal design-based properties. Composition is applied alsoto estimate some of the global parameters on which the small area estimators depend.It is shown that the commonly adopted assumption of random effects is not necessaryfor exploiting the similarity of the districts (borrowing strength across the districts). Themethods are applied in the estimation of the mean household sizes and the proportions ofsingle-member households in the counties (comarcas) of Catalonia. The simplest version ofthe estimators is more efficient than the established alternatives, even though the extentof spatial similarity is quite modest.

Impact of small variations in temperature and humidity on the reproductive activity and survival of Aedes aegypti (Diptera, Culicidae)

In short space of time increase in temperature and rainfall can affect vector populations and, consequently, the diseases for them transmitted. The present study analyzed the effect of small temperature and humidity variations on the fecundity, fertility and survival of Aedes aegypti. These parameters were analyzed using individual females at temperatures ranging from 23 to 27 °C (mean 25 °C); 28 to 32 °C (mean 30 °C) and 33 to 37 °C (mean 35 ºC) associated to 60±8% and 80±6% relative humidity. Females responded to an increase in temperature by reducing egg production, oviposition time and changing oviposition patterns. At 25 ºC and 80% relative humidity, females survived two-fold more and produced 40% more eggs when compared to those kept at 35 ºC and 80% relative humidity. However, in 45% of females kept at 35 ºC and 60% relative humidity oviposition was inhibited and only 15% females laid more than 100 eggs, suggesting that the intensity of the temperature effect was influenced by humidity. Gradual reductions in egg fertility at 60% relative humidity were observed with the increase in temperature, although such effect was not found in the 80% relative humidity at 25 º C and 30 º C. These results suggest that the reduction in population densities recorded in tropical areas during seasons when temperatures reach over 35 ºC is likely to be strongly influenced by temperature and humidity, with a negative effect on several aspects of mosquito biology.

SwissParam: a fast force field generation tool for small organic molecules.

The drug discovery process has been deeply transformed recently by the use of computational ligand-based or structure-based methods, helping the lead compounds identification and optimization, and finally the delivery of new drug candidates more quickly and at lower cost. Structure-based computational methods for drug discovery mainly involve ligand-protein docking and rapid binding free energy estimation, both of which require force field parameterization for many drug candidates. Here, we present a fast force field generation tool, called SwissParam, able to generate, for arbitrary small organic molecule, topologies, and parameters based on the Merck molecular force field, but in a functional form that is compatible with the CHARMM force field. Output files can be used with CHARMM or GROMACS. The topologies and parameters generated by SwissParam are used by the docking software EADock2 and EADock DSS to describe the small molecules to be docked, whereas the protein is described by the CHARMM force field, and allow them to reach success rates ranging from 56 to 78%. We have also developed a rapid binding free energy estimation approach, using SwissParam for ligands and CHARMM22/27 for proteins, which requires only a short minimization to reproduce the experimental binding free energy of 214 ligand-protein complexes involving 62 different proteins, with a standard error of 2.0 kcal mol(-1), and a correlation coefficient of 0.74. Together, these results demonstrate the relevance of using SwissParam topologies and parameters to describe small organic molecules in computer-aided drug design applications, together with a CHARMM22/27 description of the target protein. SwissParam is available free of charge for academic users at www.swissparam.ch.