An ultra-short-term wind power prediction method using “offline classification and optimization, online model matching” based on time series features

The applicability of ultra-short-term wind power prediction (USTWPP) models is reviewed. The USTWPP method proposed extracts featrues from historical data of wind power time series (WPTS), and classifies every short WPTS into one of several different subsets well defined by stationary patterns. All the WPTS that cannot match any one of the stationary patterns are sorted into the subset of nonstationary pattern. Every above WPTS subset needs a USTWPP model specially optimized for it offline. For on-line application, the pattern of the last short WPTS is recognized, then the corresponding prediction model is called for USTWPP. The validity of the proposed method is verified by simulations.

Short-Term Reversals: The Effects of Past Returns and Institutional Exits

Price declines over the previous quarter lead to stronger reversals across the subsequent two months. We explain this finding based on the dual notions that liquidity provision can influence reversals, and agents that act as de facto liquidity providers may be less active in past losers. Supporting these observations, we find that active institutions participate less in losing stocks, and that the magnitude of monthly return reversals fluctuates with changes in the number of active institutional investors. Thus, we argue that fluctuations in liquidity provision with past return performance accounts for the link between return reversals and past returns.

Microstructural evolution and mechanical properties of short-term thermally exposed 9/12Cr heat-resistant steels

The microstructural evolution during short-term (up to 3000 hours) thermal exposure of three 9/12Cr heat-resistant steels was studied, as well as the mechanical properties after exposure. The tempered martensitic lath structure, as well as the precipitation of carbide and MX type carbonitrides in the steel matrix, was stable after 3000 hours of exposure at 873 K (600 °C). A microstructure observation showed that during the short-term thermal exposure process, the change of mechanical properties was caused mainly by the formation and growth of Laves-phase precipitates in the steels. On thermal exposure, with an increase of cobalt and tungsten contents, cobalt could promote the segregation of tungsten along the martensite lath to form Laves phase, and a large size and high density of Laves-phase precipitates along the grain boundaries could lead to the brittle intergranular fracture of the steels.

Stability of Short-span Bridges Subject to Overtopping during Floods: Case Studies from UK and the USA

As a consequence of increased levels of flooding, largely attributable to urbanization of watersheds (and perhaps climate change, more frequent extreme rainfall events are occurring and threatening existing critical infrastructure. Many of which are short-span bridges over relatively small waterways (e.g., small rivers, streams and canals). Whilst these short-span bridges were designed, often many years ago, to pass relatively minor the then standard return-period floods, in recenttimes the failure incidence of such short-span bridges has been noticeably increasing. This is suggestive of insufficient hydraulic capacity or alternative failure mechanism not envisaged at the time of design e.g. foundation scour or undermining. This paper presen ts, and draws lessons, from bridge failures in Ireland and the USA. For example, in November 2009, the UK and Ireland were subjected to extraordinarily severe weather conditions for several days. The resulting flooding led to the collapse of three UK bridges that were generally 19th century masonry arch bridges, withrelatively shallow foundations. Parallel failure events have been observed in the USA. To date, knowledge of the combined effect of waterway erosion, bridge submergence, and geotechnical collapse has not been adequately studied. Recent research carried out considered the hydraulic analysis of short span bridges under flood conditions, but no consideration was given towards the likely damage to these structures due to erosive coupling of hydraulic and geotechnical factors. Some work has been done to predict the discharge downstream of an inundated arch, focusing onpredicting afflux, as opposed to bridge scour, under both pressurized and free-surface flows, but no ! predictive equation for scour under pressurized conditions was ever considered. The case studies this paper presents will be augmented by the initial findings from the laboratory experiments investigating the effects of surcharged flow and subsequent scour within the vicinity of single span arch bridges. Velocities profiles will be shown within the vicinity of the arch, in addition to the depth of consequent scour, for a series of flows and model spans. The data will be presented and correlated to the most recent predictive equations for submerged contraction and abutment scour. The accuracy of these equations is examined, and the findings used as a basis for developing further studies in relation to short span bridges.

Temporal Narrowing of Neutrons Produced by High-Intensity Short-Pulse Lasers

The production of neutron beams having short temporal duration is studied using ultraintense laser pulses. Laser-accelerated protons are spectrally filtered using a laser-triggered microlens to produce a short duration neutron pulse via nuclear reactions induced in a converter material (LiF). This produces a similar to 3 ns duration neutron pulse with 10(4) n/MeV/sr/shot at 0.56 m from the laser-irradiated proton source. The large spatial separation between the neutron production and the proton source allows for shielding from the copious and undesirable radiation resulting from the laser-plasma interaction. This neutron pulse compares favorably to the duration of conventional accelerator sources and should scale up with, present and future, higher energy laser facilities to produce brighter and shorter neutron beams for ultrafast probing of dense materials.

Short-chain fatty acids cause an IL-8 response in cystic fibrosis airways via increased GPR41

RATIONALE: Anaerobic bacteria are present in large numbers in the airways of people with cystic fibrosis (PWCF). In the gut, anaerobes produce short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) that modulate immune/inflammatory processes.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the capacity of anaerobes to contribute to CF airway pathogenesis via SCFAs.

METHODS: Samples from 109 PWCF were processed using anaerobic microbiological culture with bacteria present identified by 16S RNA sequencing. SCFAs levels in anaerobe supernatants and bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) were determined by gas chromatography. The mRNA and/or protein expression of SCFAs receptors, GPR41 and GPR43, in CF and non-CF bronchial brushings, and 16HBE14o- and CFBE41o- cells were evaluated using RT-PCR, western blot, laser scanning cytometry and confocal microscopy. SCFAs-induced IL-8 secretion was monitored by ELISA.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Fifty seven of 109 (52.3%) PWCF were anaerobe-positive. Prevalence increased with age, from 33.3% to 57.7% in PWCF under (n=24) and over 6 years (n=85). All evaluated anaerobes produced millimolar concentrations of SCFAs, including acetic, propionic and butyric acid. SCFAs levels were higher in BAL samples from adults than children. GPR41 levels were elevated in; CFBE41o- versus 16HBE14o- cells; CF versus non-CF bronchial brushings; 16HBE14o- cells after treatment with CFTR inhibitor CFTR(inh)-172, CF BAL, or inducers of endoplasmic reticulum stress. SCFAs induced a dose-dependent and pertussis toxin-sensitive IL-8 response in bronchial epithelial cells with a higher production of IL-8 in CFBE41o- than 16HBE14o- cells.

CONCLUSIONS: This study illustrates that SCFAs contribute to excessive production of IL-8 in CF airways colonized with anaerobes via upregulated GPR41.

Short Report:Engraftment of T-cell-depleted allogeneic haematopoietic stem cells using a reduced intensity conditioning regimen

Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) remains a significant complication in patients undergoing allogeneic stem cell transplantation (SCT) using a reduced intensity conditioning regimen. Although T-cell depletion (TCD) reduces the risk of GVHD after a myeloablative conditioning regimen, it is associated with an increased risk of graft failure. We have therefore examined whether TCD compromises engraftment using a fludarabine-based conditioning regimen. Fifteen patients have been transplanted using such a regimen of whom 13 underwent ex vivo TCD. All but one patient demonstrated durable engraftment and no patient receiving a TCD product developed severe GVHD. Thus, TCD may play a role in GvHD prophylaxis using such regimens.

Cyclosporin A and short-term methotrexate versus cyclosporin A as graft versus host disease prophylaxis in patients with severe aplastic anemia given allogeneic bone marrow transplantation from an HLA-identical sibling:results of a GITMO/EBMT randomized trial

A randomized trial was carried out comparing cyclosporin A (CsA) and short-term methotrexate (MTX) versus CsA alone for graft versus host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis in patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA) undergoing allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT) from a compatible sibling. Seventy-one patients (median age, 19 years; range, 4-46 years) were randomized to receive either CsA and MTX or CsA alone for the first 3 weeks after BMT. Subsequently, both groups received CsA orally, with gradual drug reduction until discontinuation 8 to 12 months after BMT. Patients randomized in both arms had comparable characteristics and received the same preparative regimen (ie, cyclophosphamide 200 mg/kg over 4 days). The median time for neutrophil engraftment was 17 days (range, 11-31 days) and 12 days (range, 4-45 days) for patients in the CsA/MTX group and the CsA alone group, respectively (P =.01). No significant difference was observed in the probability of either grade 2, grade 3, or grade 4 acute GVHD or chronic GVHD developing in the 2 groups. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of 1-year transplantation-related mortality rates for patients given either CsA/MTX or CsA alone were 3% and 15%, respectively (P =.07). With a median follow-up of 48 months from BMT, the 5-year survival probability is 94% for patients in the CsA/MTX group and 78% for those in the CsA alone group (P =. 05). These data indicate that the use of CsA with MTX is associated with improved survival in patients with SAA who receive transplants from compatible siblings. (Blood. 2000;96:1690-1697)

PCR amplification of short tandem repeat sequences allows serial studies of chimaerism/engraftment following BMT in rodents

Animal models of bone marrow transplantation (BMT) allow evaluation of new experimental treatment strategies. One potential strategy involves the treatment of donor marrow with ultra-violet B light to allow transplantation across histocompatibility boundaries without an increase in graft rejection or graft-versus-host disease. A major requirement for a new experimental protocol, particularly if it involves manipulation of the donor marrow, is that the manipulated marrow gives rise to long-term multilineage engraftment. DNA based methodologies are now routinely used by many centres to evaluate engraftment and degree of chimaerism post-BMT in humans. We report the adaptation of this methodology to the serial study of engraftment in rodents. Conditions have been defined which allow analysis of serial tail vein samples using PCR of short tandem repeat sequences (STR-PCR). These markers have been used to evaluate the contribution of ultraviolet B treated marrow to engraftment following BMT in rodents without compromising the health of the animals under study. Chimaerism data from sequential tail vein samples and bone marrow from selected sacrificed animals showed excellent correlation, thus confirming the validity of this approach in analysing haemopoietic tissue. Thus the use of this assay may facilitate experimental studies in animal BMT.