Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

Seismic evaluation of environmentally degraded FRP-strengthened masonry walls

Fiber Reinforced Polymers (FRPs) have been extensively used for externally bonded reinforcement of masonry structures during the last years. Available information shows that FRPs can significantly improve the seismic performance of masonry elements without altering their structural mass. However, the durability and long-term performance of the strengthened elements are not clearly known yet. Recent experimental results show that environmental conditions can lead to degradation of the bond between FRP and masonry and FRP delaminations. But the effect of these local degradation mechanisms on the global structural response is not studied yet. This paper is therefore aimed at numerically investigating the effect of environmental degradation on the global performance of strengthened masonry walls. The nonlinear behavior of masonry walls strengthened with FRP composites is initially simulated with the aim of a FE package. The adopted numerical modeling strategy is verified by comparison of numerical and experimental results. The model, once validated, is used for investigating the effect of materials and bond degradation on the global behavior and failure modes of strengthened walls. The effect of strengthening scheme on the long-term performance of strengthened walls is also investigated. The degradation data are taken from experimental tests previously performed by the authors. The numerical results show that the effect of local material degradation on the global response of strengthened walls depends on the strengthening schemes, and severity of the environmental conditions. Moreover, environmental induced degradations and FRP delaminations can lead to change of expected failure modes in the strengthened elements. These observations, that are usually neglected at the design stage, can be critical in the long-term performance of strengthened structures.

Mothers' beliefs concerning severity and need for intervention in child maltreatment

Dissertação de mestrado integrado em Psicologia Clínica e da Saúde

Assessing the application of polypropylene multifilament yarns in brain phantoms

The currently available clinical imaging methods do not provide highly detailed information about location and severity of axonal injury or the expected recovery time of patients with traumatic brain injury [1]. High-Definition Fiber Tractography (HDFT) is a novel imaging modality that allows visualizing and quantifying, directly, the degree of axons damage, predicting functional deficits due to traumatic axonal injury and loss of cortical projections. This imaging modality is based on diffusion technology [2]. The inexistence of a phantom able to mimic properly the human brain hinders the possibility of testing, calibrating and validating these medical imaging techniques. Most research done in this area fails in key points, such as the size limit reproduced of the brain fibers and the quick and easy reproducibility of phantoms [3]. For that reason, it is necessary to develop similar structures matching the micron scale of axon tubes. Flexible textiles can play an important role since they allow producing controlled packing densities and crossing structures that match closely the human crossing patterns of the brain. To build a brain phantom, several parameters must be taken into account in what concerns to the materials selection, like hydrophobicity, density and fiber diameter, since these factors influence directly the values of fractional anisotropy. Fiber cross-section shape is other important parameter. Earlier studies showed that synthetic fibrous materials are a good choice for building a brain phantom [4]. The present work is integrated in a broader project that aims to develop a brain phantom made by fibrous materials to validate and calibrate HDFT. Due to the similarity between thousands of hollow multifilaments in a fibrous arrangement, like a yarn, and the axons, low twist polypropylene multifilament yarns were selected for this development. In this sense, extruded hollow filaments were analysed in scanning electron microscope to characterize their main dimensions and shape. In order to approximate the dimensional scale to human axons, five types of polypropylene yarns with different linear density (denier) were used, aiming to understand the effect of linear density on the filament inner and outer areas. Moreover, in order to achieve the required dimensions, the polypropylene filaments cross-section was diminished in a drawing stage of a filament extrusion line. Subsequently, tensile tests were performed to characterize the mechanical behaviour of hollow filaments and to evaluate the differences between stretched and non-stretched filaments. In general, an increase of the linear density causes the increase in the size of the filament cross section. With the increase of structure orientation of filaments, induced by stretching, breaking tenacity increases and elongation at break decreases. The production of hollow fibers, with the required characteristics, is one of the key steps to create a brain phantom that properly mimics the human brain that may be used for the validation and calibration of HDFT, an imaging approach that is expected to contribute significantly to the areas of brain related research.

Postpartum depression in Recife - Brazil: prevalence and association with bio-socio-demographic factors

OBJECTIVE:To use a semi-structured interview to detect depression in postpartum women according to the criteria proposed by the DSM in child health care clinics in the city of Recife, together with the proper association of this disorder to bio-socio-demographic data. METHODS: The study used a cross-section method and contained a convenience sample of 400 women that were between 2 and 26 weeks of postpartum in child health care clinics. A bio-socio-demographic questionnaire and the Portuguese version of the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Axis I Disorders were used. RESULTS: Twenty nine of the mothers (7.2%) were diagnosed as suffering from postpartum depression. Women with a past history of psychiatric disorders, a family history of psychiatric disorder and some sort of clinical complication presented a higher prevalence of depression. The same happened to those with a past history of spontaneous abortion, those who had a transpelvic birth and those over 8 weeks of puerperium. CONCLUSION: The rate of postpartum depression in this sample, 7.2%, was lower than that reported by other Brazilian studies. It probably occurred because the other researchers used screening scales to assess this estimate instead of a clinical interview.

Analysis of exploratory eye movements in patients with schizophrenia during visual scanning of projective tests' figures

OBJECTIVE: Compare pattern of exploratory eye movements during visual scanning of the Rorschach and TAT test cards in people with schizophrenia and controls. METHOD: 10 participants with schizophrenia and 10 controls matched by age, schooling and intellectual level participated in the study. Severity of symptoms was evaluated with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale. Test cards were divided into three groups: TAT cards with scenes content, TAT cards with interaction content (TAT-faces), and Rorschach cards with abstract images. Eye movements were analyzed for: total number, duration and location of fixation; and length of saccadic movements. RESULTS: Different pattern of eye movement was found, with schizophrenia participants showing lower number of fixations but longer fixation duration in Rorschach cards and TAT-faces. The biggest difference was observed in Rorschach, followed by TAT-faces and TAT-scene cards. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest alteration in visual exploration mechanisms possibly related to integration of abstract visual information.

Clozapine-induced severe eosinophilia: report of a case with good outcome

INTRODUCTION: Clozapine is the antipsychotic of choice in the treatment of refractory schizophrenia. However, its side effects, such as eosinophilia, may preclude its use. METHODS: Case report and literature review. RESULTS: Young woman, 19 years old, diagnosed with hebefrenic schizophrenia, admitted at Unicamp's psychiatry ward after psychotic symptoms relapse. Clozapine was started after unsuccessful attempts with risperidon and olanzapine. By the fourth week of clozapine use, eosinophils began to increase. Drug titration was stopped, but eosinophils counts continued to rise up, reaching the mark of 5200/mm³. Due to severity of psychotic symptoms and to the good response obtained with clozapine, we decided to investigate organs involvement before withdrawing the medication. As the patient had no organs involvement, clozapine was maintained and one month after eosinophils peak, it was already normalized. CONCLUSION: Eosinophilia should not necessarily lead to clozapine's withdrawal. Patients who present eosinophilia must be at rigorous observation for organs involvement, and if there is no such involvement, clozapine might be maintained, considering the possible benign and transitory nature of the eosinophils count elevation.

Posttraumatic stress disorder: prevalences, comorbidities and quality of life in a community sample of young adults

Objectives To verify the prevalence of current posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in young adults, the occurrence of comorbidities and its association with quality of life. Methods This is a cross-sectional population-based study. The targeted population consisted on individuals aged 18 to 24 years old, who lived in the urban area of Pelotas-RS, Brazil. Cluster sampling was applied. PTSD and its comorbidities were assessed using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI 5.0), whereas quality of life was evaluated with the eight domains of the Medical Outcomes Survey Short-form General Health Survey (SF-36). Results A total of 1,762 young adults were selected. The prevalence of PTSD was 2.1% and current episode of depression was the most prevalent comorbidity (71.9%). The individuals with PTSD had lower scores in all domains of quality of life. Conclusion These findings indicate that PTSD is associated with other psychopathologies, especially depression, and it has a substantial impact over quality of life in a sample of young adults.

Presence of dual diagnosis between users and non-users of licit and illicit drugs in Brazil

ABSTRACT Objective Investigate the occurrence of dual diagnosis in users of legal and illegal drugs. Methods It is an analytical, cross-sectional study with a quantitative approach, non-probabilistic intentional sampling, carried out in two centers for drug addiction treatment, by means of individual interviews. A sociodemographic questionnaire, the Alcohol, Smoking and Substance Involvement Screening Test (ASSIST) and the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) were used. Results One hundred and ten volunteers divided into abstinent users (group 1), alcoholics (group 2) and users of alcohol and illicit drugs (group 3). The substances were alcohol, tobacco, crack and marijuana. A higher presence of dual diagnosis in group 3 (71.8%) was observed, which decreased in group 2 (60%) and 37.1% of drug abstinent users had psychiatric disorder. Dual diagnosis was associated with the risk of suicide, suicide attempts and the practice of infractions. The crack consumption was associated with the occurrence of major depressive episode and antisocial personality disorder. Conclusion It was concluded that the illicit drug users had a higher presence of dual diagnosis showing the severity of this clinical condition. It is considered essential that this clinical reality is included in intervention strategies in order to decrease the negative effects of consumption of these substances and provide better quality of life for these people.

Concepts and objects of awareness in Alzheimer’s disease: an updated systematic review

ABSTRACT Objectives To compare and discuss the objects of awareness in Alzheimer’s disease (AD): awareness of cognitive deficits, of functional activities, of social-emotional functioning and behavioral impairment. Methods A search in the PsycINFo, Pilots, PubMed/Medline and ISI electronic databases according to Prisma methodology was performed. We included studies about awareness in people with AD published between 2010 and 2015, with the combination of keywords: “Alzheimer AND awareness of deficits”, “Alzheimer AND anosognosia”, “Alzheimer AND insight”, “dementia AND awareness of deficits”, “dementia AND anosognosia”, “dementia AND insight”. The articles were categorized according to the specific object of awareness. Results Seven hundred and ten records were identified and, after application of the exclusion criteria, 191 studies were retrieved for potential use. After excluding the duplicates, 46 studies were included. Most studies assessed the cognitive domain of awareness, followed by the functional, social-emotional, and behavioral impairment domains. Memory deficits were not sufficient to explain impaired awareness in AD. Longitudinal studies did not find discrepancies between patients and caregivers’ reports, indicating that awareness is not related to cognition. Conflicting findings were observed, including the relation between awareness, mood, severity of disease, and personal characteristics. Conclusions The studies show lack of conceptual consensus and significant methodological differences. The inclusion of samples without differentiation of dementia etiology is associated to symptomatic differences, which affect awareness domains. Awareness in AD is a complex and multidimensional construct. Different objects elicit different levels of awareness.

Influence of emphysema distribution on pulmonary function parameters in COPD patients

Objective: To evaluate the impact that the distribution of emphysema has on clinical and functional severity in patients with COPD. Methods: The distribution of the emphysema was analyzed in COPD patients, who were classified according to a 5-point visual classification system of lung CT findings. We assessed the influence of emphysema distribution type on the clinical and functional presentation of COPD. We also evaluated hypoxemia after the six-minute walk test (6MWT) and determined the six-minute walk distance (6MWD). Results: Eighty-six patients were included. The mean age was 65.2 ± 12.2 years, 91.9% were male, and all but one were smokers (mean smoking history, 62.7 ± 38.4 pack-years). The emphysema distribution was categorized as obviously upper lung-predominant (type 1), in 36.0% of the patients; slightly upper lung-predominant (type 2), in 25.6%; homogeneous between the upper and lower lung (type 3), in 16.3%; and slightly lower lung-predominant (type 4), in 22.1%. Type 2 emphysema distribution was associated with lower FEV1 , FVC, FEV1 /FVC ratio, and DLCO. In comparison with the type 1 patients, the type 4 patients were more likely to have an FEV1 < 65% of the predicted value (OR = 6.91, 95% CI: 1.43-33.45; p = 0.016), a 6MWD < 350 m (OR = 6.36, 95% CI: 1.26-32.18; p = 0.025), and post-6MWT hypoxemia (OR = 32.66, 95% CI: 3.26-326.84; p = 0.003). The type 3 patients had a higher RV/TLC ratio, although the difference was not significant. Conclusions: The severity of COPD appears to be greater in type 4 patients, and type 3 patients tend to have greater hyperinflation. The distribution of emphysema could have a major impact on functional parameters and should be considered in the evaluation of COPD patients.

Outcome of acute renal failure associated with cardiac surgery in infants

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the impact of acute renal failure (ARF) on the evolution of infants undergoing cardiac surgery. METHODS: We assessed 15 infants undergoing cardiac surgery who developed (ARF). Their demographic, clinical and surgical data, and evolution were analyzed. RESULTS: Their mean age was 4.4±4.0 months (8 days to 24 months). Twelve infants were males, and 4 patients already had ARF at surgery. The primary cause of ARF was immediate acute cardiac dysfunction in 10 infants, cardiac dysfunction associated with sepsis in 2 infants, and isolated sepsis in 3 infants. All children depended on mechanical ventilation during their postoperative period, 14 infants used vasoactive drugs, and 11 had an infectious process associated with ARF. Thirteen infants required dialytic treatment. Eleven infants developed oluguric ARF, and all had to undergo peritoneal dialysis; of the 4 patients with non-oliguric, 2 required dialysis, the main indication being hypervolemia. Of these 13 dialyzed infants, 4 died in the first 24 hours because of the severity of the underlying cardiac disease (mean urea level of 49±20 mg/dl). The mortality rate for the entire group was 60% , and it was higher among the patients with oliguria ARF (73% vs 25%, p<0.001). The cause of death was acute cardiac dysfunction in 6 infants (early type-1ARF) and sepsis in the 3 remaining infants (late type-2 ARF). CONCLUSION: The mortality rate of ARF associated with cardiac surgery in infants was hight, being higher among children with oliguria; peritoneal dialysis was indicated due to clinically uncontrolled hypervolemia and not to the uremic hypercatabolic state.

Breastfeeding is negatively affected by prenatal depression and reduces postpartum depression

Background. This prospective cohort study explored the effects of prenatal and postpartum depression on breastfeeding and the effect of breastfeeding on postpartum depression. Method. The Edinburgh Postpartum Depression Scale (EPDS) was administered to 145 women at the first, second and third trimester, and at the neonatal period and 3 months postpartum. Self-report exclusive breastfeeding since birth was collected at birth and at 3, 6 and 12 months postpartum. Data analyses were performed using repeated-measures ANOVAs and logistic and multiple linear regressions. Results. Depression scores at the third trimester, but not at 3 months postpartum, were the best predictors of exclusive breastfeeding duration (β =−0.30, t=−2.08, p<0.05). A significant decrease in depression scores was seen from childbirth to 3 months postpartum in women who maintained exclusive breastfeeding for53 months (F1,65 =3.73, p<0.10, ηp 2 =0.05). Conclusions. These findings suggest that screening for depression symptoms during pregnancy can help to identify women at risk for early cessation of exclusive breastfeeding, and that exclusive breastfeeding may help to reduce symptoms of depression from childbirth to 3 months postpartum.

Comorbid depression and anxiety effects on pregnancy and neonatal outcome

The effects of comorbid depression and anxiety were compared to the effects of depression alone and anxiety alone on pregnancy mood states and biochemistry and on neonatal outcomes in a large multi-ethnic sample. At the prenatal period the comorbid and depressed groups had higher scores than the other groups on the depression measure. But, the comorbid group had higher anxiety, anger and daily hassles scores than the other groups, and they had lower dopamine levels. As compared to the non-depressed group, they also reported more sleep disturbances and relationship problems. The comorbid group also experienced a greater incidence of prematurity than the depressed, the high anxiety and the non-depressed groups. Although the comorbid and anxiety groups were lower birthweight than the non-depressed and depressed groups, the comorbid group did not differ from the depressed and anxiety groups on birth length. The neonates of the comorbid and depressed groups had higher cortisol and norepinephrine and lower dopamine and serotonin levels than the neonates of the anxiety and non-depressed groups as well as greater relative right frontal EEG. These data suggest that for some measures comorbidity of depression and anxiety is the worst condition (e.g., incidence of prematurity), while for others, comorbidity is no more impactful than depression alone.

Epworth's sleepiness scale in outpatients with different values of arterial blood pressure

OBJECTIVE: To compare sleepiness scores of the Epworth scale in patients with different levels of arterial pressure when undergoing outpatient monitoring within the context of clinical evaluation. METHODS: A total of 157 patients selected for outpatient monitoring of arterial pressure during hypertension evaluation were divided into 3 groups: group 1 - normotensive; group 2 - hypertensive; group 3 - resistant hypertensive. For analysis, values > or = 11 were considered as associated with respiratory disturbances during sleep. RESULTS: Seventeen (10.8%) patients in group 1, 112 (71.3%) in group 2, and 28 (17.8%) in group 3, which was composed of aged, more severely hypertensive individuals, were analyzed. Groups were similar relative to sex and body mass index, but different in relation to systolic and diastolic pressure levels and age. Despite an absolute difference, no statistically significant difference occurred between Epworth scores and in the proportion of patients with values > or = 11 (5.9% vs. 18.8% vs. 212.4%; P=0.37). Despite the positive association between degree of sleepiness measured with the scale and the severity of the hypertension, no statistical significance occurred following control by age (p=0.18). CONCLUSION: A positive correlation exists between degree of sleepiness and hypertension severity. The absence of a statistical significance shown in the present study could be due to a beta type of error. Instruments that render this complaint into an objective finding could help in the pursuit of an investigation of respiratory disturbances during sleep in more severely hypertensive patients, and should therefore be studied better.