Serial persistence in individual real estate returns in the UK

Persistence of property returns is a topic of perennial interest to fund managers as it suggests that choosing those properties that will perform well in the future is as simple as looking at those that performed well in the past. Consequently, much effort has been expended to determine if such a rule exists in the real estate market. This paper extends earlier studies in US, Australian, and UK markets in two ways. First, this study applies the same methodology originally used in Young and Graff (1996) making the results directly comparable with those in the US and Australian property markets. Second, this study uses a much longer and larger database covering all commercial property data available from the Investment Property Databank (IPD), for the years 1981 to 2002 for as many as 216,758 individual property returns. While the performance results of this study mimic the US and Australian results of greater persistence in the extreme first and fourth quartiles, they also evidence persistence in the moderate second and third quartiles, a notable departure from previous studies. Likewise patterns across property type, location, time, and holding period are remarkably similar leading to the conjecture that behaviors in the practice of commercial real estate investment management are themselves deeply rooted and persistent and perhaps influenced for good or ill by agency effects

Measurement of paraben concentrations in human breast tissue at serial locations across the breast from axilla to sternum

The concentrations of five esters of p-hydroxybenzoic acid (parabens) were measured using HPLC-MS/MS at four serial locations across the human breast from axilla to sternum using human breast tissue collected from 40 mastectomies for primary breast cancer in England between 2005 and 2008. One or more paraben esters were quantifiable in 158/160 (99%) of the tissue samples and in 96/160 (60%) all five esters were measured. Variation was notable with respect to individual paraben esters, location within one breast and similar locations in different breasts. Overall median values in nanograms per gram tissue for the 160 tissue samples were highest for n-propylparaben [16.8 (range 0–2052.7)] and methylparaben [16.6 (range 0–5102.9)]; levels were lower for n-butylparaben [5.8 (range 0–95.4)], ethylparaben [3.4 (range 0–499.7)] and isobutylparaben 2.1 (range 0–802.9). The overall median value for total paraben was 85.5 ng g−1 tissue (range 0–5134.5). The source of the paraben cannot be identified, but paraben was measured in the 7/40 patients who reported never having used underarm cosmetics in their lifetime. No correlations were found between paraben concentrations and age of patient (37–91 years), length of breast feeding (0–23 months), tumour location or tumour oestrogen receptor content. In view of the disproportionate incidence of breast cancer in the upper outer quadrant, paraben concentrations were compared across the four regions of the breast: n-propylparaben was found at significantly higher levels in the axilla than mid (P = 0.004 Wilcoxon matched pairs) or medial (P = 0.021 Wilcoxon matched pairs) regions (P = 0.010 Friedman ANOVA).

Divergent evolutionary pattern of starch biosynthetic pathway genes in grasses and dicots

Starch is the most widespread and abundant storage carbohydrate in crops and its production is critical to both crop yield and quality. As regards the starch content in the seeds of crop plants, there are distinct difference between grasses (Poaceae) and dicots. However, few studies have described the evolutionary pattern of genes in the starch biosynthetic pathway in these two groups of plants. In this study, therefore, an attempt was made to compare the evolutionary rate, gene duplication and selective pattern of the key genes involved in this pathway between the two groups, using five grasses and five dicots as materials. The results showed (i) distinct differences in patterns of gene duplication and loss between grasses and dicots; duplication in grasses mainly occurred prior to the divergence of grasses, whereas duplication mostly occurred in individual species within the dicots; there is less gene loss in grasses than in dicots; (ii) a considerably higher evolutionary rate in grasses than in dicots in most gene families analyzed; (iii) evidence of a different selective pattern between grasses and dicots; positive selection may have occurred asymmetrically in grasses in some gene families, e.g. AGPase small subunit. Therefore, we deduced that gene duplication contributes to, and a higher evolutionary rate is associated with, the higher starch content in grasses. In addition, two novel aspects of the evolution of the starch biosynthetic pathway were observed.

Seasonal pattern of regional carbon balance in the central Rocky Mountains from surface and airborne measurements

[1] High-elevation forests represent a large fraction of potential carbon uptake in North America, but this uptake is not well constrained by observations. Additionally, forests in the Rocky Mountains have recently been severely damaged by drought, fire, and insect outbreaks, which have been quantified at local scales but not assessed in terms of carbon uptake at regional scales. The Airborne Carbon in the Mountains Experiment was carried out in 2007 partly to assess carbon uptake in western U.S. mountain ecosystems. The magnitude and seasonal change of carbon uptake were quantified by (1) paired upwind-downwind airborne CO2 observations applied in a boundary layer budget, (2) a spatially explicit ecosystem model constrained using remote sensing and flux tower observations, and (3) a downscaled global tracer transport inversion. Top-down approaches had mean carbon uptake equivalent to flux tower observations at a subalpine forest, while the ecosystem model showed less. The techniques disagreed on temporal evolution. Regional carbon uptake was greatest in the early summer immediately following snowmelt and tended to lessen as the region experienced dry summer conditions. This reduction was more pronounced in the airborne budget and inversion than in flux tower or upscaling, possibly related to lower snow water availability in forests sampled by the aircraft, which were lower in elevation than the tower site. Changes in vegetative greenness associated with insect outbreaks were detected using satellite reflectance observations, but impacts on regional carbon cycling were unclear, highlighting the need to better quantify this emerging disturbance effect on montane forest carbon cycling.

The dependence of contrail formation on the weather pattern and altitude in the North Atlantic

Aircraft flying through cold ice-supersaturated air produce persistent contrails which contribute to the climate impact of aviation. Here, we demonstrate the importance of the weather situation, together with the route and altitude of the aircraft through this, on estimating contrail coverage. The results have implications for determining the climate impact of contrails as well as potential mitigation strategies. Twenty-one years of re-analysis data are used to produce a climatological assessment of conditions favorable for persistent contrail formation between 200 and 300 hPa over the north Atlantic in winter. The seasonal-mean frequency of cold ice-supersaturated regions is highest near 300 hPa, and decreases with altitude. The frequency of occurrence of ice-supersaturated regions varies with large-scale weather pattern; the most common locations are over Greenland, on the southern side of the jet stream and around the northern edge of high pressure ridges. Assuming aircraft take a great circle route, as opposed to a more realistic time-optimal route, is likely to lead to an error in the estimated contrail coverage, which can exceed 50% for westbound north Atlantic flights. The probability of contrail formation can increase or decrease with height, depending on the weather pattern, indicating that the generic suggestion that flying higher leads to fewer contrails is not robust.

Serial persistence in individual real estate returns in the UK

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine individual level property returns to see whether there is evidence of persistence in performance, i.e. a greater than expected probability of well (badly) performing properties continuing to perform well (badly) in subsequent periods. Design/methodology/approach – The same methodology originally used in Young and Graff is applied, making the results directly comparable with those for the US and Australian markets. However, it uses a much larger database covering all UK commercial property data available in the Investment Property Databank (IPD) for the years 1981 to 2002 – as many as 216,758 individual property returns. Findings – While the results of this study mimic the US and Australian results of greater persistence in the extreme first and fourth quartiles, they also evidence persistence in the moderate second and third quartiles, a notable departure from previous studies. Likewise patterns across property type, location, time, and holding period are remarkably similar. Research limitations/implications – The findings suggest that performance persistence is not a feature unique to particular markets, but instead may characterize most advanced real estate investment markets. Originality/value – As well as extending previous research geographically, the paper explores possible reasons for such persistence, consideration of which leads to the conjecture that behaviors in the practice of institutional-grade commercial real estate investment management may themselves be deeply rooted and persistent, and perhaps influenced for good or ill by agency effects. - See more at: http://www.emeraldinsight.com/journals.htm?articleid=1602884&show=abstract#sthash.hc2pCmC6.dpuf

Colonization, persistence, and tissue tropism of Escherichia coli O26 in conventionally reared weaned lambs

Escherichia coli O26 is recognized as an emerging pathogen associated with disease in both ruminants and humans. Compared to those of E. coli O157:117, the shedding pattern and location of E. coli O26 in the gastrointestinal tract (GIT) of ruminants are poorly understood. In the studies reported here, an stx-negative E. coli O26 strain of ovine origin was inoculated orally into 6-week-old lambs and the shedding pattern of the O26 strain was monitored by serial bacteriological examination of feces. The location of colonization in the GIT was examined at necropsy at two time points. The numbers of O26 organisms excreted in feces declined from approximately 10(7) to 10(4) CFU per gram of feces by day 7 and continued at this level for a further 3 weeks. Beyond day 30, excretion was from few animals, intermittent, and just above the detection limit. By day 38, all fecal samples were negative, but at necropsy, O26 organisms were recovered from the upper GIT, specifically the ileum. However, no attaching-effacing (AE) lesions were observed. To identify the location of E. coli O26 within the GIT early after inoculation, two lambs were examined postmortem, 4 days postinoculation. High numbers of O26 organisms were recovered from all GIT sites examined, and similar to 10(9) CFU were recovered from 1 gram of ileal tissue from one animal. Despite high numbers of O26 organisms, AE lesions were identified on the mucosa of the ascending colon of only one animal. These data indicate that E. coli O26 readily colonizes 6-week-old lambs, but the sparseness of AE lesions suggests that O26 is well adapted to this host, and mechanisms other than those dependent upon intimin may play a role in persistence.

PMCRI: a parallel modular classification rule induction framework

In a world where massive amounts of data are recorded on a large scale we need data mining technologies to gain knowledge from the data in a reasonable time. The Top Down Induction of Decision Trees (TDIDT) algorithm is a very widely used technology to predict the classification of newly recorded data. However alternative technologies have been derived that often produce better rules but do not scale well on large datasets. Such an alternative to TDIDT is the PrismTCS algorithm. PrismTCS performs particularly well on noisy data but does not scale well on large datasets. In this paper we introduce Prism and investigate its scaling behaviour. We describe how we improved the scalability of the serial version of Prism and investigate its limitations. We then describe our work to overcome these limitations by developing a framework to parallelise algorithms of the Prism family and similar algorithms. We also present the scale up results of a first prototype implementation.

Trust and relational embeddedness: exploring a paradox of trust pattern development in key supplier relationships

This paper explores the role of trust as an enabler and constraint between buyers and suppliers engaged in long-term relationships. According to the relational view, cooperative strategies require trust-based mutual commitments to co-create value. However, complete pictures of the positive and negative outcomes from trust development have yet to be fully developed. In particular, trust as an originator of path dependent constraints resulting from over embeddedness is yet to be integrated into the relational view. We use a case-based methodology to explore whether trust is an optimizing phenomenon in key supplier relationships. Two cases where trust development processes demonstrate a paradox of trust-building behaviors cultivate different outcomes constraining value co-creation.