The Dynamics of UK and US Inflation Expectations

This paper investigates the relationship between short term and long term in ation expectations in the US and the UK with a focus on iflation pass through (i.e. how changes in short term expectations affect long term expectations). An econometric methodology is used which allows us to uncover the relationship between in ation pass through and various explanatory variables. We relate our empirical results to theoretical models of anchored, contained and unmoored inflation expectations. For neither country do we find anchored or unmoored inflation expectations. For the US, contained inflation expectations are found. For the UK, our ndings are not consistent with the specifi =c model of contained inflation expectations presented here, but are consistent with a more broad view of expectations being constrained by the existence of an inflation target.

A Model of Near-Rational Exuberance

We study how the use of judgement or “add-factors” in forecasting may disturb the set of equilibrium outcomes when agents learn using recursive methods. We isolate conditions under which new phenomena, which we call exuberance equilibria, can exist in a standard self-referential environment. Local indeterminacy is not a requirement for existence. We construct a simple asset pricing example and find that exuberance equilibria, when they exist, can be extremely volatile relative to fundamental equilibria.

An Archival Case Study: Revisiting The Life and Political Economy of Lauchlin Currie

This paper forms part of a wider project to show the significance of archival material on distinguished economists, in this case Lauchlin Currie (1902-93), who studied and taught at Harvard before entering government service at the US Treasury and Federal Reserve Board as the intellectual leader of Roosevelt’s New Deal, 1934-39, as FDR’s White House economic adviser in peace and war, 1939-45, and as a post-war development economist. It discusses the uses made of the written and oral material available when the author was writing his intellectual biography of Currie (Duke University Press 1990) while Currie was still alive, and the significance of the material that has come to light after Currie’s death.

Treatment-dependent loss of polyfunctional CD8+ T-cell responses in HIV-infected kidney transplant recipients is associated with herpesvirus reactivation.

Antiretroviral-therapy has dramatically changed the course of HIV infection and HIV-infected (HIV(+)) individuals are becoming more frequently eligible for solid-organ transplantation. However, only scarce data are available on how immunosuppressive (IS) strategies relate to transplantation outcome and immune function. We determined the impact of transplantation and immune-depleting treatment on CD4+ T-cell counts, HIV-, EBV-, and Cytomegalovirus (CMV)-viral loads and virus-specific T-cell immunity in a 1-year prospective cohort of 27 HIV(+) kidney transplant recipients. While the results show an increasing breadth and magnitude of the herpesvirus-specific cytotoxic T-cell (CTL) response over-time, they also revealed a significant depletion of polyfunctional virus-specific CTL in individuals receiving thymoglobulin as a lymphocyte-depleting treatment. The disappearance of polyfunctional CTL was accompanied by virologic EBV-reactivation events, directly linking the absence of specific polyfunctional CTL to viral reactivation. The data provide first insights into the immune-reserve in HIV+ infected transplant recipients and highlight new immunological effects of thymoglobulin treatment. Long-term studies will be needed to assess the clinical risk associated with thymoglobulin treatment, in particular with regards to EBV-associated lymphoproliferative diseases.

Official Central Bank Interventions in the Foreign Exchange Markets: A DCC Approach with Exogenous Variables

This paper assesses the impact of official central bank interventions (CBIs) on exchange rate returns, their volatility and bilateral correlations. By exploiting the recent publication of intervention data by the Bank of England, this study is able to investigate fficial interventions by a total number of four central banks, while the previous studies have been limited to three (the Federal Reserve, Bundesbank and Bank of Japan). The results of the existing literature are reappraised and refined. In particular, unilateral CBI is found to be more successful than coordinated CBI. The likely implications of these findings are then discussed.

Financial liberalisation and industrial development in Malawi

It has been suggested that financial liberalisation may be a key policy to promote industrialisation as it removes the credit access constraint on firms, especially small and medium ones. We investigate the effect of credit expansion in the wake of liberalisation on the structure of the industrial sectors in Malawi and find that, in contrast to the hypothesis above, it resulted in an increase in industrial concentration and a decrease in net firm entry, especially in sectors that are more finance dependent. The case of Malawi is interesting because financial liberalisation has been justified precisely as a means for industrial development and because the implementation of the policy has been regarded as relatively successful.

Proyecto ecoturístico integrado en la Reserva Natural El Tisey - La Estanzuela

El presente proyecto realizado en la Reserva Natural El Tisey-La Estanzuela en la República de Nicaragua pretende mejorar la situación de dicha Reserva como destino ecoturístico. Mediante una descripción exhaustiva del área y una valoración de los recursos y servicios turísticos, se ha planteado la problemática para el desarrollo del ecoturismo. Según la OMT, el ecoturismo es un tipo de turismo sostenible que se realiza en espacios naturales protegidos para conocer la flora y fauna características. Debe satisfacer las necesidades de los turistas y de los autóctonos, al mismo tiempo que protege y mejora las oportunidades de futuro y se respeta la integridad cultural, los procesos ecológicos, la diversidad biológica y los sistemas de apoyo a la vida. En base a ésto y a los resultados obtenidos tanto de la valoración de los servicios y recursos como del análisis DAFO, se han propuesto un conjunto de mejoras y se ha realizado un plan de actuación, que se trata de la elaboración de cuatro itinerarios así como de trípticos informativos, que de llevarse a cabo, mejorarían las condiciones turísticas y de seguro que aumentaría la afluencia de turistas.

Understanding Liquidity and Credit Risks in the Financial Crisis

This paper develops a structured dynamic factor model for the spreads between London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) and overnight index swap (OIS) rates for a panel of banks. Our model involves latent factors which reflect liquidity and credit risk. Our empirical results show that surges in the short term LIBOR-OIS spreads during the 2007-2009 fi nancial crisis were largely driven by liquidity risk. However, credit risk played a more signifi cant role in the longer term (twelve-month) LIBOR-OIS spread. The liquidity risk factors are more volatile than the credit risk factor. Most of the familiar events in the financial crisis are linked more to movements in liquidity risk than credit risk.

International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) Consensus Conference on Handling and Staging of Radical Prostatectomy Specimens. Working group 1: specimen handling.

The 2009 International Society of Urological Pathology Consensus Conference in Boston made recommendations regarding the standardization of pathology reporting of radical prostatectomy specimens. Issues relating to the handling and processing of radical prostatectomy specimens were coordinated by working group 1. Most uropathologists followed similar procedures for fixation of radical prostatectomy specimens, with 51% of respondents transporting tissue in formalin. There was also consensus that the prostate weight without the seminal vesicles should be recorded. There was consensus that the surface of the prostate should be painted. It was agreed that both the prostate apex and base should be examined by the cone method with sagittal sectioning of the tissue sample. There was consensus that the gland should be fully fixed before sectioning. Both partial and complete embedding of prostates was considered to be acceptable as long as the method of partial embedding is stated. No consensus was determined regarding the necessity of weighing and measuring the length of the seminal vesicles, the preparation of whole mounts rather than standardized blocks and the methodology for sampling of fresh tissue for research purposes, and it was agreed that these should be left to the discretion of the working pathologist.

On the morphology of Laevapex vazi n. sp. from Brazil (Mollusca: Pulmonata: Basommatophora: Ancylidae)

A description of Laevapex vazi n. sp. based on 8 specimens collectec in Ourinhos, state of São Paulo, is presented. Shell thin, diaphanous, with a light brown periostracum and moderately elliptical opening. Apex not pointed, smooth, situated on the right posterior region of the shell, inclined to the right often reaching the edge of the shell or extending beyond it. Concentric lines clearly visible; radial striation not visible or when perceptible very thin, here and there. Ratios: shell width/shell lenght = 0,60 - 0,67 (mean = 0,63); shell height/shell length = 0,50 - 0,61 (mean = 0,55); shell height/shell width = 0,33 - 0,40 (mean = 0,35). Body of normal ancylid type; mantle pigmentation concentrated on the left side; three muscles are seen: a round posterior one on the left side, an elliptical muscle on the right anterior side and an almost almond-shaped one on the left anterior side. Tentacles with a medium core of black pigment. Pseudobranch two-lobed and folded, the dorsal lobe smaller than the vetral one. Ovotestis with 20 unbranched diverticula, around a short collecting canal. Ovispermiduct with an enlargement with several round outpocketings constituting the seminal vesicle. Carrefour as a round sac. Albumen gland almost cylindrical with several acinous diverticula. Elongated nidamental gland continous with the galndular wall of the uterus; uterus flattened and thin-walled. Spermathecal body almost rounded. Pear-shaped prostate without diverticula. Penial complex without flagellum but with well-developed ultra-penis and penis. Jaw horseshoe shaped. Radular forma 20.1.20; raquidian tooth quadricuspid, asymmetrical. The genus Laevapex Walker, 1903 is recorded for the first time in Brazil. It is easily distinguished from South American Gundlachia Pfeiffer, 1849 by its penial complex. Laevapex vazi is dedicated to Dr. Jorge Faria Vaz, from SUCEN-SP, who have been sent to me the specimens.

Financial crisis and quantitative easing: can broad money tell us anything?

When Bank of England (and the Federal Reserve Board) introduced their quantitative easing (QE) operations they emphasised the effects on money and credit, but much of their empirical research on the effects of QE focuses on long-term interest rates. We use a flow of funds matrix with an independent central bank to show the implications of QE and other monetary developments, and argue that the financial crisis, the fiscal expansion and QE are likely to have constituted major exogenous shocks to money and credit in the UK which could not be digested immediately by the usual adjustment mechanisms. We present regressions of a reduced form model which considers the growth of nominal spending as determined by the growth of nominal money and other variables. These results suggest that money was not important during the Great Moderation but has had a much larger role in the period of the crisis and QE. We then use these estimates to illustrate the effects of the financial crisis and QE. We conclude that it would be useful to incorporate money and/or credit in wider macroeconometric models of the UK economy.

No Good Deals - No Bad Models

Faced with the problem of pricing complex contingent claims, an investor seeks to make his valuations robust to model uncertainty. We construct a notion of a model- uncertainty-induced utility function and show that model uncertainty increases the investor's eff ective risk aversion. Using the model-uncertainty-induced utility function, we extend the \No Good Deals" methodology of Cochrane and Sa a-Requejo [2000] to compute lower and upper good deal bounds in the presence of model uncertainty. We illustrate the methodology using some numerical examples.

Characterizing Behavioral Decisions with Choice Datas

A number of different models with behavioral economics have a reduced form representation where potentially boundedly rational decision-makers do not necessarily internalize all the consequences of their actions on payoff relevant features (which we label as psychological states) of the choice environment. This paper studies the restrictions that such behavioral models impose on choice data and the implications they have for welfare analysis. First, we propose a welfare benchmark that is justified using standard axioms of rational choice and can be applied to a number of existing seminal behavioral economics models. Second, we show that Sen's axioms and fully characterize choice data consistent with behavioral decision-makers. Third, we show how choice data to infer information about the normative signi.cance of psychological states and establish the possibility of identifying welfare dominated choices.

Biomphalaria obstructa (Morelet, 1849): a study of topotypic specimens (Mollusca: pulmonata: planorbidae)

A description of Biomphalaria obstructa (Morelet, 1849), based on specimens collected at its type locality - isla del carmen, state of Campeche, Mexico - is presented. The Shell is small, 13 mm in diameter, 3.5 mm in width and with 5.75 whorls in the largest specimen, thin, moderately lustrous and translucent, horn-colored. Whorls increasing regularly (neither slowly nor rapidly) in diameter, rounded on the periphery side, bluntly angular on the left. Suture well-marked, deeper on the left. Right side widely concave, with first whorl deeply situated and partly hidden by the next. Left side shallower than right one, largely flattened, with first whorl plaintly visible. Aperture roundly heart-shaped, usually in the same plane as the body whorl but somewhat deflected to the left (less frequently to the right) in some specimens. Peristome sharp, seldom blunt; a distinct callus on the parietal wall. A number of young shells develop one set (seldom more) of apertural lamellae which tend to be resorbed as the shell grows. Absence of renal ridge. Ovotestis with about 70 mostly unbrached diverticula. Seminal vesicle beset with well-developed knoblike to fingerlike diverticula. Vaginal pouch more or less developed. Spermatheca club-shaped when empty, egg-shaped when full, and with intermediate forms between those extremes. Spermathecal body usually somewhat longer than the duct. Prostate with 7 to 20 (mean 12.06 ± 2.51) usually short diverticula which give off plumpish branches spreading out in a fan shape and overlapping to some extent their immediate neighbors. Foremost prostatic diverticulum nearly always partially or completely inserted between the spermathecal body and the uterine wall. Penial sheath consistently narrower and shorter than the prepuce. Muscular coat of the penis consisting of an inner longitudinal and an outer circular layers. Ratios between organ lengths: caudal to cephalic parts of female duct = 0.55 to 1.37 (mean 0.85 +- 0.17); cephalic parte of female duct to penial complex = 1.36 to 2.81 ((mean 1.90 +- 0.33); penial sheath to prepuce = 042 to 0.96 (mean 0.67 +- 0.13). Comparison with Morelet’s type specimens of Planorbis orbiculus and P. retusus points to the identity of those nominal species with B. obstructa.

Meeting technologies and optimal trading mechanisms in competitive search markets

In a market in which sellers compete by posting mechanisms, we study how the properties of the meeting technology affect the mechanism that sellers select. In general, sellers have incentive to use mechanisms that are socially efficient. In our environment, sellers achieve this by posting an auction with a reserve price equal to their own valuation, along with a transfer that is paid by (or to) all buyers with whom the seller meets. However, we define a novel condition on meeting technologies, which we call “invariance,” and show that the transfer is equal to zero if and only if the meeting technology satisfies this condition.