The economics of power and control

John Hardman Moore outlines his joint research with Oliver Hart, looking at the economics of power and control and the foundations of contractual incompleteness

An Optimised Illustrative Investment Model Of The Economics Of Integrated Returns From CCS Deployment In The UK/UKCS

NORTH SEA STUDY OCCASIONAL PAPER No. 118

The Economics of CO2-EOR Cluster Developments in the UK Central North Sea/ Outer Moray Firth

NORTH SEA STUDY OCCASIONAL PAPER No. 123

Fine structural variations of alphabetaTCRs selected by vaccination with natural versus altered self-antigen in melanoma patients.

Immunotherapy of cancer is often performed with altered "analog" peptide Ags optimized for HLA class I binding, resulting in enhanced immunogenicity, but the induced T cell responses require further evaluation. Recently, we demonstrated fine specificity differences and enhanced recognition of naturally presented Ag by T cells after vaccination with natural Melan-A/MART-1 peptide, as compared with analog peptide. In this study, we compared the TCR primary structures of 1489 HLA-A*0201/Melan-A(26-35)-specific CD8 T cells derived from both cohorts of patients. Although a strong preference for TRAV12-2 segment usage was present in nearly all patients, usage of particular TRAJ gene segments and CDR3alpha composition differed slightly after vaccination with natural vs analog peptide. Moreover, TCR beta-chain repertoires were broader after natural than analog peptide vaccination. In all patients, we observed a marked conservation of the CDR3beta amino acid composition with recurrent sequences centered on a glycyl-leucyl/valyl/alanyl-glycyl motif. In contrast to viral-specific TCR repertoires, such "public" motifs were primarily expressed by nondominant T cell clonotypes, which contrasted with "private" CDR3beta signatures frequently found in T cell clonotypes that dominated repertoires of individual patients. Interestingly, no differences in functional avidity were observed between public and private T cell clonotypes. Collectively, our data indicate that T cell repertoires generated against natural or analog Melan-A peptide exhibited slightly distinct but otherwise overlapping and structurally conserved TCR features, suggesting that the differences in binding affinity/avidity of TCRs toward pMHC observed in the two cohorts of patients are caused by subtle structural TCR variations.

A balance of questions: what can we ask of climate change economics?

The standard approach to the economics of climate change, which has its best known implementation in Nordhaus's DICE and RICE models (well described in Nordhaus's 2008 book, A Question of Balance) is not well equipped to deal with the possibility of catastrophe, since we are unable to evaluate a risk averse representative agent's expected utility when there is any signi cant probability of zero consumption. Whilst other authors attempt to develop new tools with which to address these problems, the simple solution proposed in this paper is to ask a question that the currently available tools of climate change economics are capable of answering. Rather than having agents optimally choosing a path (that differs from the recommendations of climate scientists) within models which cannot capture the essential features of the problem, I argue that economic models should be used to determine the savings and investment paths which implement climate targets that have been suggested in the physical science literature.

HSU-Robbins and Spitzer's theorems for the variations of fractional Brownian motion

Using recent results on the behavior of multiple Wiener-Itô integrals based on Stein's method, we prove Hsu-Robbins and Spitzer's theorems for sequences of correlated random variables related to the increments of the fractional Brownian motion.

Seasonal distribution and diel biting patterns of culicine mosquitoes in Costa Marques, Rondônia, Brazil

A study of peridomestic man-biting culicines in the Amazon Basin was conducted from January through December, 1987. Fifteen species of mosquitoes from six genera were collected by volunters in all-night human-bait indoor and outdoor collections at five hoses in and near the town of Costa Marques, Rondônia, Brazil. Culex quinquefasciatus and members of the Mansonia titillans/indubitans Group comprised 61 and 33%, respectively, of all culcines collected from human-bait outside houses and 62 and 35%, respectively, of those collected from volunteers inside houses in the town. In rural areas, Cx. quinquefasciatus was less abundant and only comprised 2 and 5% of the culcines, respectively, collected inside and outside houses. Mansonia titillans/indubitans Group comprised 75% and 86% of the culicines collected inside and outside houses, respectively, from rural residences. Culex quinquefasciatus and members of Mn. titillans/indubitans Group were more endophilic than other culcines collected. Nocturnal and seasonal biting rhythms for the more common culcines are described

A critical analysis of dimensions and curve fitting practice in economics

When dealing with sustainability we are concerned with the biophysical as well as the monetary aspects of economic and ecological interactions. This multidimensional approach requires that special attention is given to dimensional issues in relation to curve fitting practice in economics. Unfortunately, many empirical and theoretical studies in economics, as well as in ecological economics, apply dimensional numbers in exponential or logarithmic functions. We show that it is an analytical error to put a dimensional unit x into exponential functions ( a x ) and logarithmic functions ( x a log ). Secondly, we investigate the conditions of data sets under which a particular logarithmic specification is superior to the usual regression specification. This analysis shows that logarithmic specification superiority in terms of least square norm is heavily dependent on the available data set. The last section deals with economists’ “curve fitting fetishism”. We propose that a distinction be made between curve fitting over past observations and the development of a theoretical or empirical law capable of maintaining its fitting power for any future observations. Finally we conclude this paper with several epistemological issues in relation to dimensions and curve fitting practice in economics

Deliberative ecological economics: emergence and research issues

We discuss the recent emergence of "deliberative ecological economics", a field that highlights the potential of deliberation for improving environmental governance. We locate the emergence of this literature in the long concern in ecological economics over the policy implications of limited views of human action and its encounter with deliberative democracy scholarship and the model of communicative rationality as an alternative to utilitarianism. Considering criticisms over methods used and the focus of research in deliberative decision-making, we put forward a research agenda for deliberative ecological economics. Given the promising potential of deliberative processes for improving the effectiveness and legitimacy of environmental decision-making, work in this area could help advance both theory and practice in environmental governance.

Total IgE and eotaxin (CCL11) contents in tears of patients suffering from seasonal allergic conjunctivitis.

BACKGROUND: To prospectively investigate patients with seasonal allergic conjunctivitis (SAC) during the pollen season and test associations between tears total IgE, eotaxin concentrations, and SAC severity. METHODS: Enrolled patients presented ocular symptoms and clinical signs of SAC at the time of presentation. Ocular itching, hyperaemia, chemosis, eyelid swelling, and tearing were scored, and the sum of these scores was defined as the clinical score. Conjunctival papillae were separately graded. We measured eotaxin concentration in tears by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and total tear IgE by Lacrytest strip. RESULTS: Among thirty patients (30 eyes), 11 showed neither tear IgE nor tear eotaxin, while 15 out of 19 patients with positive IgE values presented a positive amount of eotaxin in their tears (Fisher's test: p < 0.001). The mean eotaxin concentration was 641 ± 154 (SEM) pg/ml. In patients with no amount of tear IgE, we observed a lower conjunctival papilla grade than in patients whose tears contained some amount of IgE (trend test: p = 0.032). In the 15 patients whose tear eotaxin concentration was null, tear IgE concentration was 5.3 ± 3.5 arbitrary units; in the other 15 patients whose eotaxin was positive, IgE reached 21 ± 4.3 arbitrary U (Mann-Whitney: p < 0.001). We measured 127 ± 47 pg/ml eotaxin in patients with no history of SAC but newly diagnosed as suffering from SAC, and 852 ± 218 pg/ml eotaxin in patients with a known SAC (p = 0.008). In contrast, tear IgE concentrations of both groups did not differ statistically significantly (p = 0.947). CONCLUSIONS: If IgE and eotaxin secreted in tears are major contributors in SAC pathogenesis, they however act at different steps of the process.

The use of classification and regression trees to predict the likelihood of seasonal influenza.

Background Individual signs and symptoms are of limited value for the diagnosis of influenza. Objective To develop a decision tree for the diagnosis of influenza based on a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Methods Data from two previous similar cohort studies were assembled into a single dataset. The data were randomly divided into a development set (70%) and a validation set (30%). We used CART analysis to develop three models that maximize the number of patients who do not require diagnostic testing prior to treatment decisions. The validation set was used to evaluate overfitting of the model to the training set. Results Model 1 has seven terminal nodes based on temperature, the onset of symptoms and the presence of chills, cough and myalgia. Model 2 was a simpler tree with only two splits based on temperature and the presence of chills. Model 3 was developed with temperature as a dichotomous variable (≥38°C) and had only two splits based on the presence of fever and myalgia. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCC) for the development and validation sets, respectively, were 0.82 and 0.80 for Model 1, 0.75 and 0.76 for Model 2 and 0.76 and 0.77 for Model 3. Model 2 classified 67% of patients in the validation group into a high- or low-risk group compared with only 38% for Model 1 and 54% for Model 3. Conclusions A simple decision tree (Model 2) classified two-thirds of patients as low or high risk and had an AUROCC of 0.76. After further validation in an independent population, this CART model could support clinical decision making regarding influenza, with low-risk patients requiring no further evaluation for influenza and high-risk patients being candidates for empiric symptomatic or drug therapy.

A molecular genetic study of the variations in metabolic function during schistosome development

During their complex life cycle schistosomes alternate between the use of stored glycogen and reliance on host glucose to provide for their energy needs. In addition, there is dramatic variation between the relative contribution of aerobic versus anaerobic glucose metabolism during development. We have cloned a set of representative cDNAs that encode proteins involved in glucose uptake, glycolysis, Kreb's cycle and oxidative phosphorylation. The different cDNAs were used as probes to examine the expression of glucose metabolism genes during the schistosome life cycle. Steady state mRNA levels from whole cercariae, isolated cercarial tails, schistosomula and adult worms were analysed on Northern blots and dot blots which were quantified using storage phosphor technology. These studies reveal: (1) Transcripts encoding glycogen metabolic enzymes are expressed to much higher levels in cercarial tails than whole cercariae or schistosomula while the opposite pattern is found for glucose transporters and hexokinase transcripts; (2) Schistosomula contain low levels of transcripts encoding respiratory enzymes but regain the capacity for aerobic glucose metabolism as they mature to adulthood; (3) Male and female adults contain similar levels of the different transcripts involved in glucose metabolism.

Bionomics of Anopheles aquasalis Curry 1932, in Guaraí, state of Rio de Janeiro, southeastern Brazil: I. Seasonal distribution and parity rates

From a total of 12,721 anophelines collected in a lowland area in Guaraí, Rio de Janeiro, from November 1991 to October 1992, 99.7% (12,688) were Anopheles aquasalis. This species occurred throughout the year, but in higher numbers from April to September, when rainfall was low or moderate. The proportion of parous females in June was significantly higher than the annual rate. An. aquasalis was weakly attracted by a light-trap, and no significant differences in abundance were detected between nights with and without moonlight.

Reconsideration of dimensions and curve fitting practice in economics ellaborating on Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology

This paper is to examine the proper use of dimensions and curve fitting practices elaborating on Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology in relation to the three main concerns of his epistemological orientation. Section 2 introduces two critical issues in relation to dimensions and curve fitting practices in economics in view of Georgescu-Roegen’s economic methodology. Section 3 deals with the logarithmic function (ln z) and shows that z must be a dimensionless pure number, otherwise it is nonsensical. Several unfortunate examples of this analytical error are presented including macroeconomic data analysis conducted by a representative figure in this field. Section 4 deals with the standard Cobb-Douglas function. It is shown that the operational meaning cannot be obtained for capital or labor within the Cobb-Douglas function. Section 4 also deals with economists "curve fitting fetishism". Section 5 concludes thispaper with several epistemological issues in relation to dimensions and curve fitting practices in economics.