Bayesian networks and the evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science

Résumé Ce travail de thèse étudie des moyens de formalisation permettant d'assister l'expert forensique dans la gestion des facteurs influençant l'évaluation des indices scientifiques, tout en respectant des procédures d'inférence établies et acceptables. Selon une vue préconisée par une partie majoritaire de la littérature forensique et juridique - adoptée ici sans réserve comme point de départ - la conceptualisation d'une procédure évaluative est dite 'cohérente' lors qu'elle repose sur une implémentation systématique de la théorie des probabilités. Souvent, par contre, la mise en oeuvre du raisonnement probabiliste ne découle pas de manière automatique et peut se heurter à des problèmes de complexité, dus, par exemple, à des connaissances limitées du domaine en question ou encore au nombre important de facteurs pouvant entrer en ligne de compte. En vue de gérer ce genre de complications, le présent travail propose d'investiguer une formalisation de la théorie des probabilités au moyen d'un environment graphique, connu sous le nom de Réseaux bayesiens (Bayesian networks). L'hypothèse principale que cette recherche envisage d'examiner considère que les Réseaux bayesiens, en concert avec certains concepts accessoires (tels que des analyses qualitatives et de sensitivité), constituent une ressource clé dont dispose l'expert forensique pour approcher des problèmes d'inférence de manière cohérente, tant sur un plan conceptuel que pratique. De cette hypothèse de travail, des problèmes individuels ont été extraits, articulés et abordés dans une série de recherches distinctes, mais interconnectées, et dont les résultats - publiés dans des revues à comité de lecture - sont présentés sous forme d'annexes. D'un point de vue général, ce travail apporte trois catégories de résultats. Un premier groupe de résultats met en évidence, sur la base de nombreux exemples touchant à des domaines forensiques divers, l'adéquation en termes de compatibilité et complémentarité entre des modèles de Réseaux bayesiens et des procédures d'évaluation probabilistes existantes. Sur la base de ces indications, les deux autres catégories de résultats montrent, respectivement, que les Réseaux bayesiens permettent également d'aborder des domaines auparavant largement inexplorés d'un point de vue probabiliste et que la disponibilité de données numériques dites 'dures' n'est pas une condition indispensable pour permettre l'implémentation des approches proposées dans ce travail. Le présent ouvrage discute ces résultats par rapport à la littérature actuelle et conclut en proposant les Réseaux bayesiens comme moyen d'explorer des nouvelles voies de recherche, telles que l'étude de diverses formes de combinaison d'indices ainsi que l'analyse de la prise de décision. Pour ce dernier aspect, l'évaluation des probabilités constitue, dans la façon dont elle est préconisée dans ce travail, une étape préliminaire fondamentale de même qu'un moyen opérationnel.

The UEFA EURO 2012 anti-doping programme - scientific review

The final tournament of the UEFA European Football Championship is one of the top sporting events in the world, and a high-profile event of this kind requires a well-planned and well-executed anti-doping programme to ensure the integrity of results in the competition. UEFA EURO 2012 presented a unique logistical challenge, with the tournament spread across two countries, both covering a large geographical area. This paper discusses the planning and delivery of both the pre tournament out-of-competition (OOC) testing programme and the in-competition (IC) programme, as well as reviewing the activities of doping control officers (DCOs), the whereabouts programme and assessing the sample collection and transport process. The analytical approach applied is also discussed, along with an overview of the distribution of T/E ratios and blood parameters.

Governance of Universities and Scientific Innovation

In this chapter the tension between the tendency of scientific disciplines to "diversify" and the capacities of universities to give new scientific fields an institutional "home" is tackled. The assumption is that new scientific fields must find support among scientists and cognitive units of universities in order to be included. As science is a strongly competitive social field, inclusion often meets resistance. It is argued in this chapter that opportunities for new scientific fields to be included depend on the kind of governance regimes ruling universities. A comparison of the former bureaucratic-oligarchic governance model in most European universities with the existing new public management governance model demonstrates that the propensity of universities to include new scientific fields has increased though there might be a price to pay in terms of which fields stand a chance of being integrated and in terms of institutional possibilities for the invention of new ideas.

Are the World AIDS Conferences guilty of gender bias? Evidence from trends in the monitoring of WAC scientific discourse from 1989 to 2012

Background : The issue of gender is acknowledged as a key issue for the AIDS epidemic. World AIDS Conferences (WAC) have constituted a major discursive space for the epidemic. We sought to establish the balance regarding gender in the AIDS scientific discourse by following its development in the published proceedings of WAC. Fifteen successive WAC 1989-2012 served to establish a "barometer" of scientific interest in heterosexual and homo/bisexual men and women throughout the epidemic. It was hypothesised that, as in other domains of Sexual and Reproductive Health, heterosexual men would be "forgotten" partners. Method : Abstracts from each conference were entered in electronic form into an Access database. Queries were created to generate five categories of interest and to monitor their annual frequency. All abstract titles including the term "men" or "women" were identified. Collections of synonyms were systematically and iteratively developed in order to classify further abstracts according to whether they included terms referring to "homo/bisexual" or "heterosexual". Reference to "Mother to Child Transmission" (MTCT) was also flagged. Results : The category including "men", but without additional reference to "homo-bisexuel" (i.e. referring to men in general and/or to heterosexual men) consistently appears four times less often than the equivalent category for women. Excluding abstracts on women and MTCT has little impact on this difference. Abstracts including reference to both "men" and "homo-bisexual" emerge as the secondmost frequent category; presence of the equivalent category for women is minimal. Conclusion : The hypothesised absence of heterosexual men in the AIDS discourse was confirmed. Although the relative presence of homo-bisexual men and women as a focal subject may be explained by epidemiological data, this is not so in the case of heterosexual men and women. This imbalance has consequences for HIV prevention.

Risk and global change : developing scientific methods for advocacy and awareness raising

Les catastrophes sont souvent perçues comme des événements rapides et aléatoires. Si les déclencheurs peuvent être soudains, les catastrophes, elles, sont le résultat d'une accumulation des conséquences d'actions et de décisions inappropriées ainsi que du changement global. Pour modifier cette perception du risque, des outils de sensibilisation sont nécessaires. Des méthodes quantitatives ont été développées et ont permis d'identifier la distribution et les facteurs sous- jacents du risque.¦Le risque de catastrophes résulte de l'intersection entre aléas, exposition et vulnérabilité. La fréquence et l'intensité des aléas peuvent être influencées par le changement climatique ou le déclin des écosystèmes, la croissance démographique augmente l'exposition, alors que l'évolution du niveau de développement affecte la vulnérabilité. Chacune de ses composantes pouvant changer, le risque est dynamique et doit être réévalué périodiquement par les gouvernements, les assurances ou les agences de développement. Au niveau global, ces analyses sont souvent effectuées à l'aide de base de données sur les pertes enregistrées. Nos résultats montrent que celles-ci sont susceptibles d'être biaisées notamment par l'amélioration de l'accès à l'information. Elles ne sont pas exhaustives et ne donnent pas d'information sur l'exposition, l'intensité ou la vulnérabilité. Une nouvelle approche, indépendante des pertes reportées, est donc nécessaire.¦Les recherches présentées ici ont été mandatées par les Nations Unies et par des agences oeuvrant dans le développement et l'environnement (PNUD, l'UNISDR, la GTZ, le PNUE ou l'UICN). Ces organismes avaient besoin d'une évaluation quantitative sur les facteurs sous-jacents du risque, afin de sensibiliser les décideurs et pour la priorisation des projets de réduction des risques de désastres.¦La méthode est basée sur les systèmes d'information géographique, la télédétection, les bases de données et l'analyse statistique. Une importante quantité de données (1,7 Tb) et plusieurs milliers d'heures de calculs ont été nécessaires. Un modèle de risque global a été élaboré pour révéler la distribution des aléas, de l'exposition et des risques, ainsi que pour l'identification des facteurs de risque sous- jacent de plusieurs aléas (inondations, cyclones tropicaux, séismes et glissements de terrain). Deux indexes de risque multiples ont été générés pour comparer les pays. Les résultats incluent une évaluation du rôle de l'intensité de l'aléa, de l'exposition, de la pauvreté, de la gouvernance dans la configuration et les tendances du risque. Il apparaît que les facteurs de vulnérabilité changent en fonction du type d'aléa, et contrairement à l'exposition, leur poids décroît quand l'intensité augmente.¦Au niveau local, la méthode a été testée pour mettre en évidence l'influence du changement climatique et du déclin des écosystèmes sur l'aléa. Dans le nord du Pakistan, la déforestation induit une augmentation de la susceptibilité des glissements de terrain. Les recherches menées au Pérou (à base d'imagerie satellitaire et de collecte de données au sol) révèlent un retrait glaciaire rapide et donnent une évaluation du volume de glace restante ainsi que des scénarios sur l'évolution possible.¦Ces résultats ont été présentés à des publics différents, notamment en face de 160 gouvernements. Les résultats et les données générées sont accessibles en ligne (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). La méthode est flexible et facilement transposable à des échelles et problématiques différentes, offrant de bonnes perspectives pour l'adaptation à d'autres domaines de recherche.¦La caractérisation du risque au niveau global et l'identification du rôle des écosystèmes dans le risque de catastrophe est en plein développement. Ces recherches ont révélés de nombreux défis, certains ont été résolus, d'autres sont restés des limitations. Cependant, il apparaît clairement que le niveau de développement configure line grande partie des risques de catastrophes. La dynamique du risque est gouvernée principalement par le changement global.¦Disasters are often perceived as fast and random events. If the triggers may be sudden, disasters are the result of an accumulation of actions, consequences from inappropriate decisions and from global change. To modify this perception of risk, advocacy tools are needed. Quantitative methods have been developed to identify the distribution and the underlying factors of risk.¦Disaster risk is resulting from the intersection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. The frequency and intensity of hazards can be influenced by climate change or by the decline of ecosystems. Population growth increases the exposure, while changes in the level of development affect the vulnerability. Given that each of its components may change, the risk is dynamic and should be reviewed periodically by governments, insurance companies or development agencies. At the global level, these analyses are often performed using databases on reported losses. Our results show that these are likely to be biased in particular by improvements in access to information. International losses databases are not exhaustive and do not give information on exposure, the intensity or vulnerability. A new approach, independent of reported losses, is necessary.¦The researches presented here have been mandated by the United Nations and agencies working in the development and the environment (UNDP, UNISDR, GTZ, UNEP and IUCN). These organizations needed a quantitative assessment of the underlying factors of risk, to raise awareness amongst policymakers and to prioritize disaster risk reduction projects.¦The method is based on geographic information systems, remote sensing, databases and statistical analysis. It required a large amount of data (1.7 Tb of data on both the physical environment and socio-economic parameters) and several thousand hours of processing were necessary. A comprehensive risk model was developed to reveal the distribution of hazards, exposure and risk, and to identify underlying risk factors. These were performed for several hazards (e.g. floods, tropical cyclones, earthquakes and landslides). Two different multiple risk indexes were generated to compare countries. The results include an evaluation of the role of the intensity of the hazard, exposure, poverty, governance in the pattern and trends of risk. It appears that the vulnerability factors change depending on the type of hazard, and contrary to the exposure, their weight decreases as the intensity increases.¦Locally, the method was tested to highlight the influence of climate change and the ecosystems decline on the hazard. In northern Pakistan, deforestation exacerbates the susceptibility of landslides. Researches in Peru (based on satellite imagery and ground data collection) revealed a rapid glacier retreat and give an assessment of the remaining ice volume as well as scenarios of possible evolution.¦These results were presented to different audiences, including in front of 160 governments. The results and data generated are made available online through an open source SDI (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). The method is flexible and easily transferable to different scales and issues, with good prospects for adaptation to other research areas. The risk characterization at a global level and identifying the role of ecosystems in disaster risk is booming. These researches have revealed many challenges, some were resolved, while others remained limitations. However, it is clear that the level of development, and more over, unsustainable development, configures a large part of disaster risk and that the dynamics of risk is primarily governed by global change.

Anàlisi d'una conversa argumentativa : Articles al diari Ara, Tresserras vs. Pastor

Aquest treball té per objecte l'anàlisi d'una "conversa" argumentativa -un conjunt de sis articles periodístics que conformen un macrotext-, des del punt de vista del model pragmadialèctic. Els columnistes expressen els seus punts de vista al voltant de la "qüestió catalana", de vigència notable especialment d'ençà del setembre de 2012.

A systematic review of existing data on long-term lithium therapy: neuroprotective or neurotoxic?

Lithium is an efficacious agent for the treatment of bipolar disorder, but it is unclear to what extent its long-term use may result in neuroprotective or toxic consequences. Medline was searched with the combination of the word 'Lithium' plus key words that referred to every possible effect on the central nervous system. The papers were further classified into those supporting a neuroprotective effect, those in favour of a neurotoxic effect and those that were neutral. The papers were classified into research in humans, animal and in-vitro research, case reports, and review/opinion articles. Finally, the Natural Standard evidence-based validated grading rationale was used to validate the data. The Medline search returned 970 papers up to February 2006. Inspection of the abstracts supplied 214 papers for further reviewing. Eighty-nine papers supported the neuroprotective effect (6 human research, 58 animal/in vitro, 0 case reports, 25 review/opinion articles). A total of 116 papers supported the neurotoxic effect (17 human research, 23 animal/in vitro, 60 case reports, 16 review/opinion articles). Nine papers supported no hypothesis (5 human research, 3 animal/in vitro, 0 case reports, 1 review/opinion articles). Overall, the grading suggests that the data concerning the effect of lithium therapy is that of level C, that is 'unclear or conflicting scientific evidence' since there is conflicting evidence from uncontrolled non-randomized studies accompanied by conflicting evidence from animal and basic science studies. Although more papers are in favour of the toxic effect, the great difference in the type of papers that support either hypothesis, along with publication bias and methodological issues make conclusions difficult. Lithium remains the 'gold standard' for the prophylaxis of bipolar illness, however, our review suggests that there is a rare possibility of a neurotoxic effect in real-life clinical practice even in closely monitored patients with 'therapeutic' lithium plasma levels. It is desirable to keep lithium blood levels as low as feasible with prophylaxis.

Attachés d'administration centrale. Constitution initiale des nouveaux corps . [Instruction du 11 avril 1956 des secrétaires d'Etat au Budget et à la présidence du conseil (Fonction publique) relative à la constitution initiale des nouveaux corps d'attachés d'administration. - Annexes. I. Programme des matières à option "Administration générale" du concours spécial prévu à l'article 23 ; II. Textes de base : Loi du 3 février 1953 et du 3 avril 1955. Décret du 16 décembre 1955 portant règlement d'administration publique relatif au statut particulier des attachés d'administration centrale. III. Organisation et programme du concours normal prévu aux articles 5 et 12 du décret du 16 décembre 1955.]

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Emotions in a Web-based Learning Environment

The aim of this thesis was to examine emotions in a web-based learning environment (WBLE). Theoretically, the thesis was grounded on the dimensional model of emotions. Four empirical studies were conducted. Study I focused on students’ anxiety and their self-efficacy in computer-using situations. Studies II and III examined the influence of experienced emotions on students’ collaborative visible and non-collaborative invisible activities and lurking in a WBLE. Study II also focused on the antecedents of the emotions students experience in a web-based learning environment. Study IV concentrated on clarifying the differences between emotions experienced in face-to-face and web-based collaborative learning. The results of these studies are reported in four original research articles published in scientific journals. The present studies demonstrate that emotions are important determinants of student behaviour in a web-based learning, and justify the conclusion that interactions on the web can and do have an emotional content. Based on the results of these empirical studies, it can be concluded that the emotions students experience during the web-based learning result mostly from the social interactions rather than from the technological context. The studies indicate that the technology itself is not the only antecedent of students’ emotional reactions in the collaborative web-based learning situations. However, the technology itself also exerted an influence on students’ behaviour. It was found that students’ computer anxiety was associated with their negative expectations of the consequences of using technology-based learning environments in their studies. Moreover, the results also indicated that student behaviours in a WBLE can be divided into three partially overlapping classes: i) collaborative visible ii) non-collaborative invisible activities, and iii) lurking. What is more, students’ emotions experienced during the web-based learning affected how actively they participated in such activities in the environment. Especially lurkers, i.e. students who seldom participated in discussions but frequently visited the online environment, experienced more negatively valenced emotions during the courses than did the other students. This result indicates that such negatively toned emotional experiences can make the lurking individuals less eager to participate in other WBLE courses in the future. Therefore, future research should also focus more precisely on the reasons that cause individuals to lurk in online learning groups, and the development of learning tasks that do not encourage or permit lurking or inactivity. Finally, the results from the study comparing emotional reactions in web-based and face-to-face collaborative learning indicated that the learning by means of web-based communication resulted in more affective reactivity when compared to learning in a face-to-face situation. The results imply that the students in the web-based learning group experienced more intense emotions than the students in the face-to-face learning group.The interpretations of this result are that the lack of means for expressing emotional reactions and perceiving others’ emotions increased the affectivity in the web-based learning groups. Such increased affective reactivity could, for example, debilitate individual’s learning performance, especially in complex learning tasks. Therefore, it is recommended that in the future more studies should be focused on the possibilities to express emotions in a text-based web environment to ensure better means for communicating emotions, and subsequently, possibly decrease the high level of affectivity. However, we do not yet know whether the use of means for communicating emotional expressions via the web (for example, “smileys” or “emoticons”) would be beneficial or disadvantageous in formal learning situations. Therefore, future studies should also focus on assessing how the use of such symbols as a means for expressing emotions in a text-based web environment would affect students’ and teachers’ behaviour and emotional state in web-based learning environments.