On heuristic and linear models of judgment: Mapping the demand for knowledge

Research on judgment and decision making presents a confusing picture of human abilities. For example, much research has emphasized the dysfunctional aspects of judgmental heuristics, and yet, other findings suggest that these can be highly effective. A further line of research has modeled judgment as resulting from as if linear models. This paper illuminates the distinctions in these approaches by providing a common analytical framework based on the central theoretical premise that understanding human performance requires specifying how characteristics of the decision rules people use interact with the demands of the tasks they face. Our work synthesizes the analytical tools of lens model research with novel methodology developed to specify the effectiveness of heuristics in different environments and allows direct comparisons between the different approaches. We illustrate with both theoretical analyses and simulations. We further link our results to the empirical literature by a meta-analysis of lens model studies and estimate both human andheuristic performance in the same tasks. Our results highlight the trade-off betweenlinear models and heuristics. Whereas the former are cognitively demanding, the latterare simple to use. However, they require knowledge and thus maps of when andwhich heuristic to employ.

Employee referrals and the inter-industry wage structure

This paper investigates the role of employee referrals in the labor market.Using an original data set, I find that industries that pay wage premia andhave characteristics associated with high-wage sectors rely mainly on employeereferrals to fill jobs. Moreover, unemployment rates are higher in industries which use employee referrals more extensively. This paper develops an equilibrium matching model which can explain these empirical regularities. Inthis model, the matching process sorts heterogeneous firms and workers into two distinct groups: referrals match "good" jobs to "good" workers, while formalmethods (e.g., newspaper ads and employment agencies) match less-attractive jobs to disadvantaged workers. Thus, well-connected workers who learn quickly aboutjob opportunities use referrals to jump job queues, while those who are less well placed in the labor market search for jobs through formal methods. The split of firms and workers between referrals and formal search is, however, not necessarily efficient. Congestion externalities in referral search imply that unemployment would be closer to the optimal rate if firms and workers 'at themargin' searched formally.

Unemployment insurance with endogenous search intensity and precautionary saving

A welfare analysis of unemployment insurance (UI) is performed in a generalequilibrium job search model. Finitely-lived, risk-averse workers smooth consumption over time by accumulating assets, choose search effort whenunemployed, and suffer disutility from work. Firms hire workers, purchasecapital, and pay taxes to finance worker benefits; their equity is the assetaccumulated by workers. A matching function relates unemployment, hiringexpenditure, and search effort to the formation of jobs. The model is calibrated to US data; the parameters relating job search effort to the probability of job finding are chosen to match microeconomic studies ofunemployment spells. Under logarithmic utility, numerical simulation shows rather small welfaregains from UI. Even without UI, workers smooth consumption effectivelythrough asset accumulation. Greater risk aversion leads to substantiallylarger welfare gains from UI; however, even in this case much of its welfareimpact is due not to consumption smoothing effects, but rather to decreased work disutility, or to a variety of externalities.

Molecular characterization of HLA-C incompatibilities in HLA-ABDR-matched unrelated bone marrow donor-recipient pairs. Sequence of two new Cw alleles (Cw*02023 and Cw*0707) and recognition by cytotoxic T lymphocytes.

While the influence of HLA-AB and -DRB1 matching on the outcome of bone marrow transplantation (BMT) with unrelated donors is clear, the evaluation of HLA-C has been hampered by its poor serological definition. Because the low resolution of standard HLA-C typing could explain the significant number of positive cytotoxic T lymphocyte precursor frequency (CTLpf) tests found among HLA-AB-subtype, DRB1/B3/B5-subtype matched patient/donor pairs, we have identified by sequencing the incompatibilities recognized by CD8+ CTL clones obtained from such positive CTLpf tests. In most cases the target molecules were HLA-C antigens that had escaped detection by serology (e.g. Cw*1601, 1502 or 0702). Direct recognition of HLA-C by a CTL clone was demonstrated by lysis of the HLA class I-negative 721.221 cell line transfected with Cw*1601 cDNA. Because of the functional importance of Cw polymorphism, a PCR-SSO oligotyping procedure was set up allowing the resolution of 29 Cw alleles. Oligotyping of a panel of 382 individuals (including 101 patients and their 272 potential unrelated donors, 5 related donors and 4 platelet donors) allowed to determine HLA-C and HLA A-B-Cw-DRB1 allelic frequencies, as well as a number of A-Cw, B-Cw, and DRB1-Cw associations. Two new HLA-Cw alleles (Cw*02023 and Cw*0707) were identified by DNA sequencing of PCR-amplified exon 2-intron 2-exon 3 amplicons. Furthermore, we determined the degree of HLA-C compatibility in 287 matched pairs that could be formed from 73 patients and their 184 potential unrelated donors compatible for HLA-AB by serology and for HLA-DRB1/ B3/B5 by oligotyping. Cw mismatches were identified in 42.1% of these pairs, and AB-subtype oligotyping showed that 30% of these Cw-incompatible pairs were also mismatched for A or B-locus subtype. The degree of HLA-C incompatibility was strongly influenced by the linkage with B alleles and by the ABDR haplotypes. Cw alleles linked with B*4403, B*5101, B18, and B62 haplotypes were frequently mismatched. Apparently high resolution DNA typing for HLA-AB does not result in full matching at locus C. Since HLA-C polymorphism is recognized by alloreactive CTLs, such incompatibilities might be as relevant as AB-subtype mismatches in clinical transplantation.

Reconstrucció 3D : comparativa d'algoritmes de correspondència

En aquest projecte s'analitzen dos algoritmes de correspondència entre imatges amb l'objectiu d'accelerar el procés de reconstrucció 3D mitjançant MVS. S'analitza tot el procés de reconstrucció i a partir d'un software existent es fa la comparació de l'algoritme SIFT i l'algoritme BRISK. A partir dels tests realitzats es conclou que el BRISK és més ràpid i millor per a una reconstrucció 3D.

Dense deformation field estimation for atlas-based segmentation of pathological MR brain images.

Atlas registration is a recognized paradigm for the automatic segmentation of normal MR brain images. Unfortunately, atlas-based segmentation has been of limited use in presence of large space-occupying lesions. In fact, brain deformations induced by such lesions are added to normal anatomical variability and they may dramatically shift and deform anatomically or functionally important brain structures. In this work, we chose to focus on the problem of inter-subject registration of MR images with large tumors, inducing a significant shift of surrounding anatomical structures. First, a brief survey of the existing methods that have been proposed to deal with this problem is presented. This introduces the discussion about the requirements and desirable properties that we consider necessary to be fulfilled by a registration method in this context: To have a dense and smooth deformation field and a model of lesion growth, to model different deformability for some structures, to introduce more prior knowledge, and to use voxel-based features with a similarity measure robust to intensity differences. In a second part of this work, we propose a new approach that overcomes some of the main limitations of the existing techniques while complying with most of the desired requirements above. Our algorithm combines the mathematical framework for computing a variational flow proposed by Hermosillo et al. [G. Hermosillo, C. Chefd'Hotel, O. Faugeras, A variational approach to multi-modal image matching, Tech. Rep., INRIA (February 2001).] with the radial lesion growth pattern presented by Bach et al. [M. Bach Cuadra, C. Pollo, A. Bardera, O. Cuisenaire, J.-G. Villemure, J.-Ph. Thiran, Atlas-based segmentation of pathological MR brain images using a model of lesion growth, IEEE Trans. Med. Imag. 23 (10) (2004) 1301-1314.]. Results on patients with a meningioma are visually assessed and compared to those obtained with the most similar method from the state-of-the-art.

Exact representation of antenna system diversity performance from input parameter description

A simplc formulation Io compute thc envelope correlation of anantenna divemiry system is dcrired. 11 is shown how to compute theenvelope correlation hom the S-parameter descnplian of the antennasystem. This approach has the advantage that i t does not require thecomputation nor the measurement of the radiation panem of theantenna system. It also offers the advantage of providing a clcaunderstanding ofthe effects ofmutual coupling and input match on thediversity performance of the antcnnii system.

Voyages astraux et hors du corps. Héautoscopie, extase et hallucinations expérientielles d'origine épileptique [Astral and out-of-body voyages. Heautoscopy, ecstasis and experimental hallucinations of epileptic origin]

We report a 38 year-old patient who had temporoparietal epilepsy and unusual ictal "out of body" experiences that remained undiagnosed for more than ten years, until her admission for a motor seizure of the left hemibody. Out of body episodes were experienced as intense and ecstatic astral journeys. EEG showed a bilateral extension of epileptiform abnormalities to the parietal regions, predominantly on the right side. We discuss the various forms of heautoscopy and their putative mechanisms. We suggest that a disturbance in representing space in independent extrapersonal and personal coordinates might be as crucial as the elusive hypothesis of a body schema disorder. Combined involvement of the parietal neocortex and temporolimbic structures might allow those experiences to gain a subjective vividness which appears to be indissociable from normal conscious experiences.

Globally aligned photomosaic of the Lucky Strike hydrothermal vent field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge, 37°18.5’N): Release of georeferenced data, mosaic construction, and viewing software

We present a georeferenced photomosaic of the Lucky Strike hydrothermal vent field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge, 37°18’N). The photomosaic was generated from digital photographs acquired using the ARGO II seafloor imaging system during the 1996 LUSTRE cruise, which surveyed a ~1 km2 zone and provided a coverage of ~20% of the seafloor. The photomosaic has a pixel resolution of 15 mm and encloses the areas with known active hydrothermal venting. The final mosaic is generated after an optimization that includes the automatic detection of the same benthic features across different images (feature-matching), followed by a global alignment of images based on the vehicle navigation. We also provide software to construct mosaics from large sets of images for which georeferencing information exists (location, attitude, and altitude per image), to visualize them, and to extract data. Georeferencing information can be provided by the raw navigation data (collected during the survey) or result from the optimization obtained from imatge matching. Mosaics based solely on navigation can be readily generated by any user but the optimization and global alignment of the mosaic requires a case-by-case approach for which no universally software is available. The Lucky Strike photomosaics (optimized and navigated-only) are publicly available through the Marine Geoscience Data System (MGDS, http://www.marine-geo.org). The mosaic-generating and viewing software is available through the Computer Vision and Robotics Group Web page at the University of Girona (http://eia.udg.es/_rafa/mosaicviewer.html)

A study of the labour market trajectories in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg

We present an analysis of the register of all unemployment episodes in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg over a recent period of 55 months. We apply propensity score matching to account forthe systematic differences among the groups of subjects (registrants) and unemployment spells.We devise graphical and tabular summaries for describing the sequences of employment states ofthe members of the labour force who register at Agence pour le d?veloppement de l'emploi, theLuxembourg Public Unemployment Agency. Some employment-related information about themis collected by linking their records to the national register of social security contributions, maintained by Inspection g?n?rale de la s?curit? sociale. A class of univariate indices for characterisingthe sequences of labour force states is defined.

Skeemakongruenssi : morfologisten skeemojen kongruenssia lapsenkielessä

Summary: Schema concord : agreement between morphological schemas in child language

Consistency and population sensitivity properties in marriage and Rrommate markets

We consider one-to-one matching markets in which agents can either be matched as pairs or remain single. In these so-called roommate markets agents are consumers and resources at the same time. Klaus (Games Econ Behav 72:172-186, 2011) introduced two new "population sensitivity" properties that capture the effect newcomers have on incumbent agents: competition sensitivity and resource sensitivity. On various roommate market domains (marriage markets, no-odd-rings roommate markets, solvable roommate markets),we characterize the core using either of the population sensitivity properties in addition to weak unanimity and consistency. On the domain of all roommate markets, we obtain two associated impossibility results.

Broadening the horizon--level 2.5 of the HUPO-PSI format for molecular interactions.

BACKGROUND: Molecular interaction Information is a key resource in modern biomedical research. Publicly available data have previously been provided in a broad array of diverse formats, making access to this very difficult. The publication and wide implementation of the Human Proteome Organisation Proteomics Standards Initiative Molecular Interactions (HUPO PSI-MI) format in 2004 was a major step towards the establishment of a single, unified format by which molecular interactions should be presented, but focused purely on protein-protein interactions. RESULTS: The HUPO-PSI has further developed the PSI-MI XML schema to enable the description of interactions between a wider range of molecular types, for example nucleic acids, chemical entities, and molecular complexes. Extensive details about each supported molecular interaction can now be captured, including the biological role of each molecule within that interaction, detailed description of interacting domains, and the kinetic parameters of the interaction. The format is supported by data management and analysis tools and has been adopted by major interaction data providers. Additionally, a simpler, tab-delimited format MITAB2.5 has been developed for the benefit of users who require only minimal information in an easy to access configuration. CONCLUSION: The PSI-MI XML2.5 and MITAB2.5 formats have been jointly developed by interaction data producers and providers from both the academic and commercial sector, and are already widely implemented and well supported by an active development community. PSI-MI XML2.5 enables the description of highly detailed molecular interaction data and facilitates data exchange between databases and users without loss of information. MITAB2.5 is a simpler format appropriate for fast Perl parsing or loading into Microsoft Excel.

Postmenopausal circulating levels of 2- and 16α-hydroxyestrone and risk of endometrial cancer.

Background:It has been suggested that the relative importance of oestrogen-metabolising pathways may affect the risk of oestrogen-dependent tumours including endometrial cancer. One hypothesis is that the 2-hydroxy pathway is protective, whereas the 16α-hydroxy pathway is harmful.Methods:We conducted a case-control study nested within three prospective cohorts to assess whether the circulating 2-hydroxyestrone : 16α-hydroxyestrone (2-OHE1 : 16α-OHE1) ratio is inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk in postmenopausal women. A total of 179 cases and 336 controls, matching cases on cohort, age and date of blood donation, were included. Levels of 2-OHE1 and 16α-OHE1 were measured using a monoclonal antibody-based enzyme assay.Results:Endometrial cancer risk increased with increasing levels of both metabolites, with odds ratios in the top tertiles of 2.4 (95% CI=1.3, 4.6; P(trend)=0.007) for 2-OHE1 and 1.9 (95% CI=1.1, 3.5; P(trend)=0.03) for 16α-OHE1 in analyses adjusting for endometrial cancer risk factors. These associations were attenuated and no longer statistically significant after further adjustment for oestrone or oestradiol levels. No significant association was observed for the 2-OHE1 : 16α-OHE1 ratio.Conclusion:Our results do not support the hypothesis that greater metabolism of oestrogen via the 2-OH pathway, relative to the 16α-OH pathway, protects against endometrial cancer.

Mirror me : the effect of the voting advice application smartvote on voting preferences and behavior of Swiss voters

Voting Advice Applications (VAAs) have become a central component of election campaigns worldwide. Through matching political preferences of voters to parties and candidates, the web application grants voters a look into their political mirror and reveals the most suitable political choices to them in terms of policy congruence. Both the dense and concise information on the electoral offer and the comparative nature of the application make VAAs an unprecedented information source for electoral decision making. In times where electoral choices are found to be highly individualized and driven by political issue positions, an ever increasing number of voters turn to VAAs before casting their ballots. With VAAs in high demand, the question of their effects on voters has become a pressing research topic. In various countries, survey research has been used to proclaim an impact of VAAs on electoral behavior, yet practically all studies fail to provide the scientific evidence that would allow for making such claims. In this thesis, I set out to systematically establish the causal link between VAA use and electoral behavior, using various data sources and appropriate statistical techniques in doing so. The focus lies on the Swiss VAA smartvote, introduced in the forefront of the 2003 Swiss federal elections and meanwhile an integral part of the national election campaign, smartvote has produced over a million voting recommendations in the last Swiss federal elections to an active electorate of two million, potentially guiding a vast amount of voters in their choices on the ballot. In order to determine the effect of the VAA on electoral behavior, I analyze both voting preferences and choice among Swiss voters during two consecutive election periods. First, I introduce statistical techniques to adequately examine VAA effects in observational studies and use them to demonstrate that voters who used smartvote prior to the 2007 Swiss federal elections were significantly more likely to swing vote in the elections than non- users. Second, I analyze preference voting during the same election and show that the smartvote voting recommendation inclines politically knowledgeable voters to modify their ballots and cast candidate specific preference votes. Third, to further tackle the indication that smartvote use affects the preference structure of voters, I employ an experimental research design to demonstrate that voters who use the application tend to strengthen their vote propensities for their most preferred party and adapt their overall party preferences in a way that they consider more than one party as eligible vote options after engaging with the application. Finally, vote choice is examined for the 2011 Swiss federal election, showing once more that the VAA initiated a change of party choice among voters. In sum, this thesis presents empirical evidence for the transformative effect of the Swiss VAA smartvote on the electoral behavior.