Variability of North Atlantic hurricanes: seasonal versus individual-event features

Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the sudden activation of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990’s. We provide first a swift overview on previous work by diverse authors about these annual metrics for the North-Atlantic basin, where the natural variability of the phenomenon, the existence of trends, the drawbacks of the records, and the influence of global warming have been the subject of interesting debates. Next, we present an alternative approach that does not focus on seasonal features but on the characteristics of single events [Corral et al., Nature Phys. 6, 693 (2010)]. It is argued that the individual-storm power dissipation index (PDI) constitutes a natural way to describe each event, and further, that the PDI statistics yields a robust law for the occurrence of tropical cyclones in terms of a power law. In this context, methods of fitting these distributions are discussed. As an important extension to this work we introduce a distribution function that models the whole range of the PDI density (excluding incompleteness effects at the smallest values), the gamma distribution, consisting in a powerlaw with an exponential decay at the tail. The characteristic scale of this decay, represented by the cutoff parameter, provides very valuable information on the finiteness size of the basin, via the largest values of the PDIs that the basin can sustain. We use the gamma fit to evaluate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on the occurrence of extreme PDI values, for which we find an increase around 50 % in the values of these basin-wide events for a 0.49 C SST average difference. Similar findings are observed for the effects of the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the number of hurricanes in a season on the PDI distribution. In the case of the El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO), positive and negative values of the multivariate ENSO index do not have a significant effect on the PDI distribution; however, when only extreme values of the index are used, it is found that the presence of El Niño decreases the PDI of the most extreme hurricanes.

Mesurer la stigmatisaion perçue chez les personnes souffrant de troubles psychiques : traduction française, validation et adaptation de la Stigma Scale

L'objectif de l'étude présentée est d'adapter et de valider une version française de la Stigma Scale (King, 2007) auprès d'une population de personnes souffrant de troubles psychiques. Dans une première phase, la stabilité temporelle (fidélité test-retest), la cohérence interne et la validité convergente de l'instrument original à 28 items traduit en français ont été évaluées auprès d'un échantillon de 183 patients. Les résultats d'analyses factorielles confirmatoires ne nous ont pas permis de confirmer la structure originale de l'instrument. Nous avons donc proposé, sur la base des résultats d'une analyse factorielle exploratoire, une version courte de l'échelle de stigmatisation (9 items) qui conserve la structure en trois facteurs du modèle original. Dans une deuxième phase, nous avons examiné les qualités psychométriques et validé cette version abrégée de l'échelle de stigmatisation auprès d'un second échantillon de 234 patients. Les indices d'ajustements de notre analyse factorielle confirmatoire confirme la structure en trois facteurs de la version abrégée de la Stigma Scale. Les résultats suggèrent que la version française abrégée de l'échelle de stigmatisation constitue un instrument utile, fiable et valide dans l'autoévaluation de la stigmatisation perçue par des personnes souffrant de troubles psychiques. - Aim People suffering from mental illness are exposed to stigma. However, only few tools are available to assess stigmatization as perceived from the patient's perspective. The aim of this study is to adapt and validate a French version of the Stigma Scale (King, 2007). This self-report questionnaire has a three-factor structure: discrimination, disclosure and positive aspects of mental illness. Discrimination subscale refers to perceived negative reactions by others. Disclosure subscale refers mainly to managing disclosure to avoid discrimination and finally positive aspects subscale taps into how patients are becoming more accepting, more understanding toward their illness. Method In the first step, internal consistency, convergent validity and test-retest reliability of the French adaptation of the 28-item scale have been assessed on a sample of 183 patients. Results of confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) did not confirm the hypothesized structure. In light of the failed attempts to validate the original version, an alternative 9-item short-form version of the Stigma Scale, maintaining the integrity of the original model, was developed based on results of exploratory factor analyses in the first sample and cross- validated in a new sample of 234 patients. Results Results of CFA did not confirm that the data fitted well to the three-factor model of the 28-item Stigma Scale (χ2/άί=2.02, GFI=0.77, AGFI=0.73, RMSEA=0.07, CFI=0.77 et NNFI=0.75). Cronbach's α are excellent for discrimination (0.84) and disclosure (0.83) subscales but poor for potential positive aspects (0.46). External validity is satisfactory. Overall Stigma Scale total score is negatively correlated with score on Rosenberg's Self-Esteem Scale (r = -0.49), and each sub-scale is significantly correlated with a visual analogue scale that refers to the specific aspect of stigma (0.43 < |r| < 0.60). Intraclass correlation coefficients between 0.68 and 0.89 indicate good test- retest reliability. Results of CFA demonstrate that the items chosen for the short version of the Stigma Scale have the expected fit properties fa2/df=1.02, GFI=0.98, AGFI=0.98, RMSEA=0.01, CFI=1.0 et NNFI=1.0). Considering the small number (3 items) of items in each subscales of the short version of the Stigma Scale, a coefficients for the discrimination (0.57), disclosure (0.80) and potential positive aspects subscales (0.62) are considered as good. Conclusion Our results suggest that the 9-item French short-version of the Stigma Scale is a useful, reliable and valid self-report questionnaire to assess perceived stigmatization in people suffering from mental illness. The time of completion is really short and questions are well understood and accepted by the patients.

Validation of an adapted falls efficacy scale in older rehabilitation patients.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the psychometric properties of an adapted version of the Falls Efficacy Scale (FES) in older rehabilitation patients. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. SETTING: Postacute rehabilitation facility in Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: Seventy elderly persons aged 65 years and older receiving postacute, inpatient rehabilitation. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: FES questions asked about subject's confidence (range, 0 [none]-10 [full]) in performing 12 activities of daily living (ADLs) without falling. Construct validity was assessed using correlation with measures of physical (basic ADLs [BADLs]), cognitive (Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE]), affective (15-item Geriatric Depression Scale [GDS]), and mobility (Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment [POMA]) performance. Predictive validity was assessed using the length of rehabilitation stay as the outcome. To determine test-retest reliability, FES administration was repeated in a random subsample (n=20) within 72 hours. RESULTS: FES scores ranged from 10 to 120 (mean, 88.7+/-26.5). Internal consistency was optimal (Cronbach alpha=.90), and item-to-total correlations were all significant, ranging from .56 (toilet use) to .82 (reaching into closets). Test-retest reliability was high (intraclass correlation coefficient, .97; 95% confidence interval, .95-.99; P<.001). Subjects reporting a fall in the previous year had lower FES scores than nonfallers (85.0+/-25.2 vs 94.4+/-27.9, P=.054). The FES correlated with POMA (Spearman rho=.40, P<.001), MMSE (rho=.37, P=.001), BADL (rho=.43, P<.001), and GDS (rho=-.53, P<.001) scores. These relationships remained significant in multivariable analysis for BADLs and GDS, confirming FES construct validity. There was a significant inverse relationship between FES score and the length of rehabilitation stay, independent of sociodemographic, functional, cognitive, and fall status. CONCLUSIONS: This adapted FES is reliable and valid in older patients undergoing postacute rehabilitation. The independent association between poor falls efficacy and increased length of stay has not been previously described and needs further investigations.

Vibration training elicits a mixed aerobic and resistance-type exercise in sedentary subjects.

Objective. Vibration training (VT) is a new exercise method, with good acceptance among sedentary subjects, due to its passive principle: the machine moves the subject, not the opposite. We hypothesize that untrained subjects can benefit from a greater cardiovascular and metabolic stimulation than trained athletes, resembling classical aerobic-type activity, in addition of eliciting strength gains shown in diverse studies. Methods. 3 group of male subjects, inactive (SED), endurance trained athletes (END) and strength trained athletes (STR) underwent fitness (VO2max) and lower-body strength tests (isokinetic). Subjects were submitted to a session of oscillating VT, composed of 3 exercises (isometric half-squat, dynamic squat, dynamic squat with added load), each of 3 minutes duration, and repeated at 3 frequencies. VO2, heart rate and Borg scale were monitored. Results. 27 healthy subjects (10 SED, 9 END and 8 STR), mean age 24.5 (SED), 25.0 (STR) and 29.8 (END) were included. VO2max was significantly different as expected (47.9 vs. 52.9 vs. 63.9 ml/kg/min, resp. for SED, STR and END). Isokinetic dominant leg extensors strength was higher in STR (3.32 Nm/kg vs. 2.60 and 2.74 in SED and END). During VT, peak oxygen consumption (% of VO2max) attained was 59.3 in SED, 50.8 in STR and 48.0 in END (P<0.001 between SED and other subjects). Peak heart rate (% of heart rate max) was 82.7 in SED, 80.4 in STR and 72.4 in END. In SED, dynamic exercises without extra load elicited 51.0% of VO2max and 72.1% of heart rate max, and perceived effort reached 15.1/20. Conclusions. VT is an unconventional type of exercise, which has been shown to enhance strength, bone density, balance and flexibility. Users are attracted by the relative passivity. In SED, we show that VT elicits sufficient cardiovascular response to benefit overall fitness in addition to the known strength effects. VT's higher acceptance as an exercise in sedentary people, compared to jogging or cycling for example, can lead to better adherence to physical activity. Although long-term effects of VT on health are not avalaible, we believe this type of combination of aerobic and resistance-type exercise can be beneficial on multiple health parameters, especially cardiovascular health.

Interleukin-8 secretion by fibroblasts induced by low density lipoproteins is p38 MAPK-dependent and leads to cell spreading and wound closure.

We have previously reported (Dobreva, I., Waeber, G., Mooser, V., James, R. W., and Widmann, C. (2003) J. Lipid Res. 44, 2382-2390) that low density lipoproteins (LDLs) induce activation of the p38 MAPK pathway, resulting in fibroblast spreading and lamellipodia formation. Here, we show that LDL-stimulated fibroblast spreading and wound sealing are due to secretion of a soluble factor. Using an antibody-based human protein array, interleukin-8 (IL-8) was identified as the main cytokine whose concentration was increased in supernatants from LDL-stimulated cells. Incubation of supernatants from LDL-treated cells with an anti-IL-8 blocking antibody completely abolished their ability to induce cell spreading and mediate wound closure. In addition, fibroblasts treated with recombinant IL-8 spread to the same extent as cells incubated with LDL or supernatants from LDL-treated cells. The ability of LDL and IL-8 to induce fibroblast spreading was mediated by the IL-8 receptor type II (CXCR-2). Furthermore, LDL-induced IL-8 production and subsequent wound closure required the activation of the p38 MAPK pathway, because both processes were abrogated by a specific p38 inhibitor. Therefore, the capacity of LDLs to induce fibroblast spreading and accelerate wound closure relies on their ability to stimulate IL-8 secretion in a p38 MAPK-dependent manner. Regulation of fibroblast shape and migration by lipoproteins may be relevant to atherosclerosis that is characterized by increased LDL cholesterol levels, IL-8 production, and extensive remodeling of the vessel wall.

The fine-scale architecture of structural variants in 17 mouse genomes.

BACKGROUND: Accurate catalogs of structural variants (SVs) in mammalian genomes are necessary to elucidate the potential mechanisms that drive SV formation and to assess their functional impact. Next generation sequencing methods for SV detection are an advance on array-based methods, but are almost exclusively limited to four basic types: deletions, insertions, inversions and copy number gains. RESULTS: By visual inspection of 100 Mbp of genome to which next generation sequence data from 17 inbred mouse strains had been aligned, we identify and interpret 21 paired-end mapping patterns, which we validate by PCR. These paired-end mapping patterns reveal a greater diversity and complexity in SVs than previously recognized. In addition, Sanger-based sequence analysis of 4,176 breakpoints at 261 SV sites reveal additional complexity at approximately a quarter of structural variants analyzed. We find micro-deletions and micro-insertions at SV breakpoints, ranging from 1 to 107 bp, and SNPs that extend breakpoint micro-homology and may catalyze SV formation. CONCLUSIONS: An integrative approach using experimental analyses to train computational SV calling is essential for the accurate resolution of the architecture of SVs. We find considerable complexity in SV formation; about a quarter of SVs in the mouse are composed of a complex mixture of deletion, insertion, inversion and copy number gain. Computational methods can be adapted to identify most paired-end mapping patterns.

COMMIT: Convex Optimization Modeling for Microstructure Informed Tractography.

Tractography is a class of algorithms aiming at in vivo mapping the major neuronal pathways in the white matter from diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data. These techniques offer a powerful tool to noninvasively investigate at the macroscopic scale the architecture of the neuronal connections of the brain. However, unfortunately, the reconstructions recovered with existing tractography algorithms are not really quantitative even though diffusion MRI is a quantitative modality by nature. As a matter of fact, several techniques have been proposed in recent years to estimate, at the voxel level, intrinsic microstructural features of the tissue, such as axonal density and diameter, by using multicompartment models. In this paper, we present a novel framework to reestablish the link between tractography and tissue microstructure. Starting from an input set of candidate fiber-tracts, which are estimated from the data using standard fiber-tracking techniques, we model the diffusion MRI signal in each voxel of the image as a linear combination of the restricted and hindered contributions generated in every location of the brain by these candidate tracts. Then, we seek for the global weight of each of them, i.e., the effective contribution or volume, such that they globally fit the measured signal at best. We demonstrate that these weights can be easily recovered by solving a global convex optimization problem and using efficient algorithms. The effectiveness of our approach has been evaluated both on a realistic phantom with known ground-truth and in vivo brain data. Results clearly demonstrate the benefits of the proposed formulation, opening new perspectives for a more quantitative and biologically plausible assessment of the structural connectivity of the brain.

Accident & Emergency Nursing Assessment of Deliberate Self Harm. Exploring the Impact of Introducing a Suicide Education Programme and a Suicide Intent Scale into A&E/MAU Nursing Practice: A Pilot Study

A proposal to pilot nursing assessment of self harm in Accident and Emergency Departments (A&E) was developed by key stakeholders in nurse education and suicide prevention in the South East and submitted to the National Council for the Professional Development of Nursing and Midwifery in April 2002.The proposal included the introduction of a suicide intent scale. Following an initial training programme, a suicide intent scale was utilised by nursing staff in A&E and the Medical Assessment Unit (MAU),Wexford General Hospital and evaluated over a period of nine months. Four months into the study the National Suicide Research Foundation (NSRF) was invited to collaboratively prepare a successful submission to the Health Research Board (HRB) as part of ‘Building Partnerships for a Healthier Future Research Awards 2004’. The NSRF undertook independent scientific evaluation of the outcomes of the suicide awareness programme. The study is in line with priorities determined by Reach Out, the National Strategy for Action on Suicide Prevention 2005-2014 (HSE, 2005) and the HSE-South East Suicide Prevention Programme through raising nursing staff awareness of the public health issue of suicide/deliberate self harm and by improving the efficiency and quality of nursing services offered to persons who present to acute hospitals with deliberate self harm. The study findings indicate evidence to positively support nursing assessment of DSH using a suicide intent scale in terms of assessing behavioural characteristics of individual clients and their suicide risk. Enhanced confidence levels of nursing personnel in caring for suicidal clients was demonstrated by staff who participated in an education programme related to risk assessment and specifically the use of a suicide intent scale.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Regional-scale integration of multi-scale hydrological and geophysical data using a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach

Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale for the purpose of improving predictions of groundwater flow and solute transport. However, extending corresponding approaches to the regional scale still represents one of the major challenges in the domain of hydrogeophysics. To address this problem, we have developed a regional-scale data integration methodology based on a two-step Bayesian sequential simulation approach. Our objective is to generate high-resolution stochastic realizations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity field in the common case where there exist spatially exhaustive but poorly resolved measurements of a related geophysical parameter, as well as highly resolved but spatially sparse collocated measurements of this geophysical parameter and the hydraulic conductivity. To integrate this multi-scale, multi-parameter database, we first link the low- and high-resolution geophysical data via a stochastic downscaling procedure. This is followed by relating the downscaled geophysical data to the high-resolution hydraulic conductivity distribution. After outlining the general methodology of the approach, we demonstrate its application to a realistic synthetic example where we consider as data high-resolution measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities at a small number of borehole locations, as well as spatially exhaustive, low-resolution estimates of the electrical conductivity obtained from surface-based electrical resistivity tomography. The different stochastic realizations of the hydraulic conductivity field obtained using our procedure are validated by comparing their solute transport behaviour with that of the underlying ?true? hydraulic conductivity field. We find that, even in the presence of strong subsurface heterogeneity, our proposed procedure allows for the generation of faithful representations of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and reliable predictions of solute transport over long, regional-scale distances.

Fine-scale spatial genetic structure and gene dispersal in Silene latifolia.

Plants are sessile organisms, often characterized by limited dispersal. Seeds and pollen are the critical stages for gene flow. Here we investigate spatial genetic structure, gene dispersal and the relative contribution of pollen vs seed in the movement of genes in a stable metapopulation of the white campion Silene latifolia within its native range. This short-lived perennial plant is dioecious, has gravity-dispersed seeds and moth-mediated pollination. Direct measures of pollen dispersal suggested that large populations receive more pollen than small isolated populations and that most gene flow occurs within tens of meters. However, these studies were performed in the newly colonized range (North America) where the specialist pollinator is absent. In the native range (Europe), gene dispersal could fall on a different spatial scale. We genotyped 258 individuals from large and small (15) subpopulations along a 60 km, elongated metapopulation in Europe using six highly variable microsatellite markers, two X-linked and four autosomal. We found substantial genetic differentiation among subpopulations (global F(ST)=0.11) and a general pattern of isolation by distance over the whole sampled area. Spatial autocorrelation revealed high relatedness among neighboring individuals over hundreds of meters. Estimates of gene dispersal revealed gene flow at the scale of tens of meters (5-30 m), similar to the newly colonized range. Contrary to expectations, estimates of dispersal based on X and autosomal markers showed very similar ranges, suggesting similar levels of pollen and seed dispersal. This may be explained by stochastic events of extensive seed dispersal in this area and limited pollen dispersal.

The Identity Style Inventory (ISI-3) and the Utrecht-Management of Identity Commitments Scale (U-MICS): Factor structure, reliability, and convergent validity in French-speaking college students

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the factor structure and the reliability of the French versions of the Identity Style Inventory (ISI-3) and the Utrecht-Management of Identity Commitments Scale (U-MICS) in a sample of college students (N = 457, 18 to 25 years old). Confirmatory factor analyses confirmed the hypothesized three-factor solution of the ISI-3 identity styles (i.e. informational, normative, and diffuse-avoidant styles), the one-factor solution of the ISI-3 identity commitment, and the three-factor structure of the U-MICS (i.e. commitment, in-depth exploration, and reconsideration of commitment). Additionally, theoretically consistent and meaningful associations among the ISI-3, U-MICS, and Ego Identity Process Questionnaire (EIPQ) confirmed convergent validity. Overall, the results of the present study indicate that the French versions of the ISI-3 and UMICS are useful instruments for assessing identity styles and processes, and provide additional support to the cross-cultural validity of these tools.

Calculation of correction factors for ionization chamber measurements with small fields in low-density media.

The quantity of interest for high-energy photon beam therapy recommended by most dosimetric protocols is the absorbed dose to water. Thus, ionization chambers are calibrated in absorbed dose to water, which is the same quantity as what is calculated by most treatment planning systems (TPS). However, when measurements are performed in a low-density medium, the presence of the ionization chamber generates a perturbation at the level of the secondary particle range. Therefore, the measured quantity is close to the absorbed dose to a volume of water equivalent to the chamber volume. This quantity is not equivalent to the dose calculated by a TPS, which is the absorbed dose to an infinitesimally small volume of water. This phenomenon can lead to an overestimation of the absorbed dose measured with an ionization chamber of up to 40% in extreme cases. In this paper, we propose a method to calculate correction factors based on the Monte Carlo simulations. These correction factors are obtained by the ratio of the absorbed dose to water in a low-density medium □D(w,Q,V1)(low) averaged over a scoring volume V₁ for a geometry where V₁ is filled with the low-density medium and the absorbed dose to water □D(w,QV2)(low) averaged over a volume V₂ for a geometry where V₂ is filled with water. In the Monte Carlo simulations, □D(w,QV2)(low) is obtained by replacing the volume of the ionization chamber by an equivalent volume of water, according to the definition of the absorbed dose to water. The method is validated in two different configurations which allowed us to study the behavior of this correction factor as a function of depth in phantom, photon beam energy, phantom density and field size.

Debris flow hazard modelling on medium scale: Valtellina di Tirano, Italy

Debris flow hazard modelling at medium (regional) scale has been subject of various studies in recent years. In this study, hazard zonation was carried out, incorporating information about debris flow initiation probability (spatial and temporal), and the delimitation of the potential runout areas. Debris flow hazard zonation was carried out in the area of the Consortium of Mountain Municipalities of Valtellina di Tirano (Central Alps, Italy). The complexity of the phenomenon, the scale of the study, the variability of local conditioning factors, and the lacking data limited the use of process-based models for the runout zone delimitation. Firstly, a map of hazard initiation probabilities was prepared for the study area, based on the available susceptibility zoning information, and the analysis of two sets of aerial photographs for the temporal probability estimation. Afterwards, the hazard initiation map was used as one of the inputs for an empirical GIS-based model (Flow-R), developed at the University of Lausanne (Switzerland). An estimation of the debris flow magnitude was neglected as the main aim of the analysis was to prepare a debris flow hazard map at medium scale. A digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, was used together with landuse, geology and debris flow hazard initiation maps as inputs of the Flow-R model to restrict potential areas within each hazard initiation probability class to locations where debris flows are most likely to initiate. Afterwards, runout areas were calculated using multiple flow direction and energy based algorithms. Maximum probable runout zones were calibrated using documented past events and aerial photographs. Finally, two debris flow hazard maps were prepared. The first simply delimits five hazard zones, while the second incorporates the information about debris flow spreading direction probabilities, showing areas more likely to be affected by future debris flows. Limitations of the modelling arise mainly from the models applied and analysis scale, which are neglecting local controlling factors of debris flow hazard. The presented approach of debris flow hazard analysis, associating automatic detection of the source areas and a simple assessment of the debris flow spreading, provided results for consequent hazard and risk studies. However, for the validation and transferability of the parameters and results to other study areas, more testing is needed.