A Bayesian latent class safety performance function for identifying motor vehicle crash blackspots

The current state of the practice in Blackspot Identification (BSI) utilizes safety performance functions based on total crash counts to identify transport system sites with potentially high crash risk. This paper postulates that total crash count variation over a transport network is a result of multiple distinct crash generating processes including geometric characteristics of the road, spatial features of the surrounding environment, and driver behaviour factors. However, these multiple sources are ignored in current modelling methodologies in both trying to explain or predict crash frequencies across sites. Instead, current practice employs models that imply that a single underlying crash generating process exists. The model mis-specification may lead to correlating crashes with the incorrect sources of contributing factors (e.g. concluding a crash is predominately caused by a geometric feature when it is a behavioural issue), which may ultimately lead to inefficient use of public funds and misidentification of true blackspots. This study aims to propose a latent class model consistent with a multiple crash process theory, and to investigate the influence this model has on correctly identifying crash blackspots. We first present the theoretical and corresponding methodological approach in which a Bayesian Latent Class (BLC) model is estimated assuming that crashes arise from two distinct risk generating processes including engineering and unobserved spatial factors. The Bayesian model is used to incorporate prior information about the contribution of each underlying process to the total crash count. The methodology is applied to the state-controlled roads in Queensland, Australia and the results are compared to an Empirical Bayesian Negative Binomial (EB-NB) model. A comparison of goodness of fit measures illustrates significantly improved performance of the proposed model compared to the NB model. The detection of blackspots was also improved when compared to the EB-NB model. In addition, modelling crashes as the result of two fundamentally separate underlying processes reveals more detailed information about unobserved crash causes.

Patient Safety - A Psychological Perspective

This comprehensive book takes a psychological perspective on patient safety. It is based on the most recent theoretical and empirical research evidence from psychology (including clinical, work, and organizational psychology) and adjacent social and behavioral sciences such as human factors. Factors that influence safety-related experiences, behaviors, and outcomes of patients and professionals working in clinical settings such as medical practices and hospitals are reviewed, structured, and critically evaluated. Consistent with the complexity of the topic, the author takes a multi-level approach to patient safety, which includes a review of individual, team, and organizational factors and outcomes. The book describes how these factors, by themselves and in combination, can facilitate or impede patient safety. Individual factors include safety-relevant knowledge, skills, abilities, and personality traits such as conscientiousness and emotional stability. Team factors include group communication, training, and leadership. Finally, organizational factors include the safety culture and climate. Throughout the book, different evidence-based intervention programs are described that can help practitioners promote patient safety and prevent accidents. The book is a valuable resource for both researchers and practitioners interested in understanding, maintaining, and improving patient safety in a variety of applied settings. It is based on the most up-to-date research evidence from psychology and neighboring disciplines, and it is written in a clear and non-technical language understandable for a wide audience.

Medication incident reporting in residential aged care facilities: Limitations and risks to residents' safety

Background Medication incident reporting (MIR) is a key safety critical care process in residential aged care facilities (RACFs). Retrospective studies of medication incident reports in aged care have identified the inability of existing MIR processes to generate information that can be used to enhance residents’ safety. However, there is little existing research that investigates the limitations of the existing information exchange process that underpins MIR, despite the considerable resources that RACFs’ devote to the MIR process. The aim of this study was to undertake an in-depth exploration of the information exchange process involved in MIR and identify factors that inhibit the collection of meaningful information in RACFs. Methods The study was undertaken in three RACFs (part of a large non-profit organisation) in NSW, Australia. A total of 23 semi-structured interviews and 62 hours of observation sessions were conducted between May to July 2011. The qualitative data was iteratively analysed using a grounded theory approach. Results The findings highlight significant gaps in the design of the MIR artefacts as well as information exchange issues in MIR process execution. Study results emphasized the need to: a) design MIR artefacts that facilitate identification of the root causes of medication incidents, b) integrate the MIR process within existing information systems to overcome key gaps in information exchange execution, and c) support exchange of information that can facilitate a multi-disciplinary approach to medication incident management in RACFs. Conclusions This study highlights the advantages of viewing MIR process holistically rather than as segregated tasks, as a means to identify gaps in information exchange that need to be addressed in practice to improve safety critical processes.

Using Big Data to manage safety-related risk in the upstream oil and gas industry: A research agenda

Despite considerable effort and a broad range of new approaches to safety management over the years, the upstream oil & gas industry has been frustrated by the sector’s stubbornly high rate of injuries and fatalities. This short communication points out, however, that the industry may be in a position to make considerable progress by applying “Big Data” analytical tools to the large volumes of safety-related data that have been collected by these organizations. Toward making this case, we examine existing safety-related information management practices in the upstream oil & gas industry, and specifically note that data in this sector often tends to be highly customized, difficult to analyze using conventional quantitative tools, and frequently ignored. We then contend that the application of new Big Data kinds of analytical techniques could potentially reveal patterns and trends that have been hidden or unknown thus far, and argue that these tools could help the upstream oil & gas sector to improve its injury and fatality statistics. Finally, we offer a research agenda toward accelerating the rate at which Big Data and new analytical capabilities could play a material role in helping the industry to improve its health and safety performance.

The dopamine-mediation of perception hypothesis and the implications for schizophrenia

- Background Following Kapur’s hypothesis [1] that schizophrenia is the intensification of phenomenological experience caused by the upregulation of dopamine, a survey of observed dopamine responses to phenomenal information was conducted. - Method An integrative study. - Results When considered in the light of the ecological theory of perception (ETP) [2] and global workspace theory (GBT) [3] Kapur’s hypothesis makes sense: Both the ETP and the GBT require an agent to attribute salience to perceptual information in order to filter an infinite array of available information and usefully sort information by importance. Dopamine may be the primary agent for this purpose. Thus perception itself is suspected as being a dopamine-mediated, and the symptoms and signs of schizophrenia may therefore be the result of dopamine dysfunction. - Conclusions The application of both ETP and GBT to the dopamine hypothesis gives the hypothesis a much-needed causal mechanism and the confl uence of these theories also provides ETP with a neurological perceptual fi lter. This paper provides a compelling model for schizophrenia; a hypothesis that ties perceptual theory to Kapur ’ s concept of dopamine-mediated salience.

Safety impacts of alcohol and other drugs in construction

Estimated 638,400 persons suffered a work-related injury or illness in 2009-2010 and 337 lost their lives as a result in 2009-2010. In 2013-2014, there were 186 fatalities with 29 (16%) occurring in construction. Very little is known about what proportion of accidents are directly attributable to the effects of AOD. Anecdotal evidence highlights issues of AOD and its association with safety risk on construction sites. Research Objective: • To scientifically evaluate the relationship between the use of AOD and the safety impacts within the Australian construction industry to engender a cultural change in the workforce • A nationally consistent and collaborative approach involving government, employers and employees, unions and other key industry stakeholders

An engineering or behavioural approach? A study into employee’s perceptions regarding the effectiveness of occupational road safety initiatives

Background and Aims Considerable variation has been documented with fleet safety interventions’ abilities to create lasting behavioural change, and research has neglected to consider employees’ perceptions regarding the effectiveness of fleet interventions. This is a critical oversight as employees’ beliefs and acceptance levels (as well as the perceived organisational commitment to safety) can ultimately influence levels of effectiveness, and this study aimed to examine such perceptions in Australian fleet settings. Method 679 employees sourced from four Australian organisations completed a safety climate questionnaire as well as provided perspectives about the effectiveness of 35 different safety initiatives. Results Countermeasures that were perceived as most effective were a mix of human and engineering-based approaches: - (a) purchasing safer vehicles; - (b) investigating serious vehicle incidents, and; - (c) practical driver skills training. In contrast, least effective countermeasures were considered to be: - (a) signing a promise card; - (b) advertising a company’s phone number on the back of cars for complaints and compliments, and; - (c) communicating cost benefits of road safety to employees. No significant differences in employee perceptions were identified based on age, gender, employees’ self-reported crash involvement or employees’ self-reported traffic infringement history. Perceptions of safety climate were identified to be “moderate” but were not linked to self-reported crash or traffic infringement history. However, higher levels of safety climate were positively correlated with perceived effectiveness of some interventions. Conclusion Taken together, employees believed occupational road safety risks could best be managed by the employer by implementing a combination of engineering and human resource initiatives to enhance road safety. This paper will further outline the key findings in regards to practice as well as provide direction for future research.

Maternal perception of weight status in first-born Australian toddlers aged 12–16 months – the NOURISH and SAIDI cohorts

Background The preference amongst parents for heavier infants is in contrast to obesity prevention efforts worldwide. Parents are poor at identifying overweight in older children, but few studies have investigated maternal perception of weight status amongst toddlers and none in the Australian setting. Methods Mothers (n = 290) completed a self-administered questionnaire at child age 12–16 months, defining their child's weight status as underweight, normal weight, somewhat overweight or very overweight. Weight-for-length z-score was derived from measured weight and length, and children categorized as underweight, normal weight, at risk overweight or obese (WHO standards). Objective classification was compared with maternal perception of weight status. Mean weight-for-length z-score was compared across categories of maternal perception using one-way ANOVA. Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine child or maternal characteristics associated with inaccurate weight perception. Results Most children (83%) were perceived as normal weight. Twenty nine were described as underweight, although none were. Sixty-six children were at risk of overweight, but 57 of these perceived as normal weight. Of the 14 children who were overweight, only 4 were identified as somewhat overweight by their mother. Compared with mothers who could accurately classify their normal weight child, mothers who were older had higher odds of perceiving their normal weight child as underweight, while mothers with higher body mass index had slightly higher odds of describing their overweight/at risk child as normal weight. Conclusion The leaner but healthy weight toddler was perceived as underweight, while only the heaviest children were recognized as overweight. Mothers unable to accurately identify children at risk are unlikely to act to prevent further excess weight gain. Practitioners can lead a shift in attitudes towards weight in infants and young children, promoting routine growth monitoring and adequate but not rapid weight gain.

Corneal recovery after uncomplicated and complicated PRK and LASIK

Refractive errors, especially myopia, seem to increase worldwide. Concurrently, the number of surgical refractive corrections has increased rapidly, with several million procedures performed annually. However, excimer laser surgery was introduced after a limited number of studies done with animals and to date there still are only few long-term follow-up studies of the results. The present thesis aims to evaluate the safety and functional outcome of, as well as to quantify the cellular changes and remodelling in the human cornea after, photorefractive keratectomy (PRK) and laser assisted in situ keratomileusis (LASIK). These procedures are the two most common laser surgical refractive methods. In Study I, myopic ophthalmic residents at Helsinki University Eye Hospital underwent a refractive correction by PRK. Five patients were followed up for 6 months to assess their subjective experience in hospital work and their performance in car driving simulator and in other visuomotor functions. Corneal morphological changes were assessed by in vivo confocal microscopy (ivCM). Study II comprised 14 patients who had undergone a PRK operation in 1993-1994. Visual acuity was examined and ivCM examinations performed 5 years postoperatively. In Study III 15 patients received LASIK refractive correction for moderate to high myopia (-6 - -12 D). Their corneal recovery was followed by ivCM for 2 years. Diffuse lamellar keratitis (DLK) is a common but variable complication of LASIK. Yet, its aetiology remains unknown. In Study IV we examined six patients who had developed DLK as a consequence of formation of an intraoperative or post-LASIK epithelial defect, to assess the corneal and conjunctival inflammatory reaction. In the whole series, the mean refractive correction was -6.46 diopters. The best spectacle corrected visual acuity (BSCVA) improved in 30 % of patients, whereas in four patients BSCVA decreased slightly. The mean achieved refraction was 0.35 D undercorrected. After PRK, the stromal scar formation was highest at 2 to 3 months postoperatively and subsequently decreased. At 5 years increased reflectivity in the subepithelial stroma was observed in all patients. Interestingly, no Bowman s layer was detected in any patient. Subbasal nerve fiber bundle(snfb) regeneration could be observed already at 2 months in 2 patients after PRK. After 5 years, all corneas presented with snfb, the density of which, however, was still lower than in control corneas. LASIK induced a hypocellular area on both sides of the flap interface. A decrease of the most anterior keratocyte density was also observed. In the corneas that developed DLK, inflammatory cell-type objects were present in the flap interface in half of the patients. The other patients presented only with keratocyte activation and highly reflective extracellular matrix. These changes resolved completely with medication and time. Snfb regeneration was first detected at one month post-LASIK, but still after two years the density of snfb, however, was only 64 % of the preoperative values. The performance of ophthalmological examinations and microsurgery without spectacles was easier postoperatively, which was appreciated by the residents. Both PRK and LASIK showed moderate to good accuracy and high safety. In terms of visual perception and subjective evaluation, few patients stated any complaints in the whole series of studies. Instead, the majority of patients experienced a marked improvement in everyday life and work performance. PRK and LASIK have shown similar results, with good long term morphological healing. It seems evident that, even without the benefit of over-20-year follow-up results, these procedures are sufficiently safe and accurate for refractive corrections and corneal reshaping.

Simulation and modelling tools for quantitative safety assessments of unmanned aircraft systems and operations

This paper presents two simple simulation and modelling tools designed to aid in the safety assessment required for unmanned aircraft operations within unsegregated airspace. First, a fast pair-wise encounter generator is derived to simulate the See and Avoid environment. The utility of the encounter generator is demonstrated through the development of a hybrid database and a statistical performance evaluation of an autonomous See and Avoid decision and control strategy. Second, an unmanned aircraft mission generator is derived to help visualise the impact of multiple persistent unmanned operations on existing air traffic. The utility of the mission generator is demonstrated through an example analysis of a mixed airspace environment using real traffic data in Australia. These simulation and modelling approaches constitute a useful and extensible set of analysis tools, that can be leveraged to help explore some of the more fundamental and challenging problems facing civilian unmanned aircraft system integration.

Lactobacillus bacteremia, with special focus on the safety of probiotic Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG

Lactobacilli are gram positive rods, which belong to normal oropharyngeal, gastrointestinal and urogenital flora. They are widely used in food industry and as food additives. Although their virulence is presumed to be very low, opportunistic bacteremic infections, especially in immunocompromised hosts, have been detected. In the present study, the possible effects of increasing probiotic use of Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG (LGG) on the occurrence of bacteremia due to lactobacilli was evaluated on population level. In Finland, 90 Lactobacillus bacteremia cases were reported to the National Infectious Disease Register maintained by National Public Health Institute, during 1995-2000. Their proportion of all bacteremia cases was on average 0.24%, corresponding to 0.3 cases/100 000 inhabitants annually. In the Helsinki University Central Hospital district the corresponding proportion of all bacteremia cases was observed during 1990-2000. Despite LGG intake increased six folded no increasing trend in the occurrence of lactobacilli bacteremia was seen. A total of 85 Lactobacillus sp. blood isolates collected from different human bacteremic cases were characterised and compared with the commercial probiotic LGG strain. In species characterisation 46 L. rhamnosus strains, 12 L. fermentum and L. casei strains each, three each of L. gasseri, L. salivarius and L. jensenii species, two L. curvatus, and one each of L. plantarum, L. sakei, L. zeae and L. reuteri species were detected. Nearly half of the L. rhamnosus findings turned out to be indistinguishable from the probiotic LGG strain. Common predisposing factors to Lactobacillus bacteremia were immunosuppression, prior prolonged hospitalisation and prior surgical interventions. Severe or fatal comorbidities were found in 82% of the patients. Mortality at one month was 26% and severe underlying diseases were a significant predictor of death (OR 15.8). Antimicrobial susceptibility of Lactobacillus strains was species dependent. The Lactobacillus isolates were generally susceptible to imipenem, piperacillin-tazobactam, clindamycin and erythromycin, whereas all other than L. gasseri and L. jensenii species were not at all susceptible to vancomycin. The susceptibility to cephalosporin varied greatly even within species why they might not be recommended for treatment of Lactobacillus infections. The effect and safety of probiotic LGG preparation in amelioration of gastric symptoms and diarrhea in HIV-infected patients was evaluated. No significant differences in gastrointestinal symptoms or diarrhoea in LGG treated patients compared to placebo could be found. LGG was well tolerated with no adverse effects including bacteremic outbreaks could be observed. The use of probiotic LGG can be regarded safe in this immunocompromised patient group.