Mémoire de source, propension à halluciner et psychose : identification de marqueurs cognitifs et cliniques chez une population à haut risque génétique

Les déficits cognitifs sont centraux à la psychose et sont observables plusieurs années avant le premier épisode psychotique. L’atteinte de la mémoire épisodique est fréquemment identifiée comme une des plus sévères, tant chez les patients qu’avant l’apparition de la pathologie chez des populations à risque. Chez les patients psychotiques, l’étude neuropsychologique des processus mnésiques a permis de mieux comprendre l’origine de cette atteinte. Une altération des processus de mémoire de source qui permettent d’associer un souvenir à son origine a ainsi été identifiée et a été associée aux symptômes positifs de psychose, principalement aux hallucinations. La mémoire de source de même que la présence de symptômes sous-cliniques n’ont pourtant jamais été investiguées avant l’apparition de la maladie chez une population à haut risque génétique de psychose (HRG). Or, leur étude permettrait de voir si les déficits en mémoire de source de même que le vécu d’expériences hallucinatoires sont associés à l’apparition de la psychose ou s’ils en précèdent l’émergence, constituant alors des indicateurs précoces de pathologie. Afin d’étudier cette question, trois principaux objectifs ont été poursuivis par la présente thèse : 1) caractériser le fonctionnement de la mémoire de source chez une population HRG afin d’observer si une atteinte de ce processus précède l’apparition de la maladie, 2) évaluer si des manifestations sous-cliniques de symptômes psychotiques, soit les expériences hallucinatoires, sont identifiables chez une population à risque et 3) investiguer si un lien est présent entre le fonctionnement en mémoire de source et la symptomatologie sous-clinique chez une population à risque, à l’instar de ce qui est documenté chez les patients. Les résultats de la thèse ont permis de démontrer que les HRG présentent une atteinte de la mémoire de source ciblée à l’attribution du contexte temporel des souvenirs, ainsi que des distorsions mnésiques qui se manifestent par une fragmentation des souvenirs et par une défaillance de la métacognition en mémoire. Il a également été observé que les expériences hallucinatoires sous-cliniques étaient plus fréquentes chez les HRG. Des associations ont été documentées entre certaines distorsions en mémoire et la propension à halluciner. Ces résultats permettent d’identifier de nouveaux indicateurs cliniques et cognitifs du risque de développer une psychose et permettent de soulever des hypothèses liant l’attribution de la source interne-externe de l’information et le développement de la maladie. Les implications empiriques, théoriques, méthodologiques et cliniques de la thèse sont discutées.

The association between vitamin K2 intake and glucose homeostasis in individuals with and without chronic kidney disease

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Adhesion molecules and chemokines: relation to anthropometric, body composition, biochemical and dietary variables

Introduction: Among the inflammatory mediators involved in the pathogenesis of obesity, the cell adhesion molecules P-selectin, E-selectin, VCAM-1, ICAM-1 and the chemokine MCP-1 stand out. They play a crucial role in adherence of cells to endothelial surfaces, in the integrity of the vascular wall and can be modulated by body composition and dietary pattern. Objectives: To describe and discuss the relation of these cell adhesion molecules and chemokines to anthropometric, body composition, dietary and biochemical markers. Methods: Papers were located using scientific databases by topic searches with no restriction on year of publication. Results: All molecules were associated positively with anthropometric markers, but controversial results were found for ICAM-1 and VCAM-1. Not only obesity, but visceral fat is more strongly correlated with E-selectin and MCP-1 levels. Weight loss influences the reduction in the levels of these molecules, except VCAM-1. The distribution of macronutrients, excessive consumption of saturated and trans fat and a Western dietary pattern are associated with increased levels. The opposite could be observed with supplementation of w-3 fatty acid, healthy dietary pattern, high calcium diet and high dairy intake. Regarding the biochemical parameters, they have inverse relation to HDLC and positive relation to total cholesterol, triglycerides, blood glucose, fasting insulin and insulin resistance. Conclusion: Normal anthropometric indicators, body composition, biochemical parameters and eating pattern positively modulate the subclinical inflammation that results from obesity by reducing the cell adhesion molecules and chemokines.

Conhecimentos e dificuldades das mães face à amamentação

Enquadramento: Devido à elevada prevalência de abandono precoce da amamentação, diversas instituições (e.g., OMS, UNICEF) têm-se preocupado em proteger, promover e apoiar o aleitamento materno um pouco por todo o mundo, defendendo a sua exclusividade durante os primeiros seis meses de vida do bebé, complementado a partir dessa idade pela introdução de alimentos e mantido até aos 2 anos de idade ou mais, se esse for o desejo da mãe. Objetivos: Avaliar os conhecimentos das mães sobre a amamentação; identificar as dificuldades vivenciadas pelas mães em relação à amamentação; analisar a relação entre as variáveis sociodemográficas e obstétricas das mães e os seus conhecimentos e dificuldades sobre a amamentação. Metodologia: Estudo quantitativo, descritivo, analítico, correlacional e de corte transversal, conduzido numa amostra não probabilística de 100 mães de recém-nascidos e/ou lactentes até 1 ano de vida, internadas no serviço de obstetrícia, neonatologia, pediatria e urgência de uma Unidade Local de Saúde do Norte do País. As inquiridas tinham idade mínima de 16 e máxima de 43 anos (M=30,77; Dp=6,356). Foi utilizado um questionário de caraterização sociodemográfica e um questionário de autorrelato da vivência das mães sobre a amamentação, desenvolvido por Sousa (2014). Resultados: Os principais resultados mostraram que 50% das mães consideram possuir bons conhecimentos relativos à amamentação, porém, apenas 39% foram classificadas com bons conhecimentos, enquanto 52% revelaram dificuldades elevadas. Os conhecimentos foram avaliados tendo por base a sinalização correta da importância da amamentação na primeira hora de vida do bebé por 93% das mães, exclusiva até aos 6 meses (28%), a composição do leite materno e composição imunológica 93%, a maioria das mães considerou saber identificar os sinais da pega correta. Relativamente ao horário da amamentação, 62% ainda considera correto amamentar de três em três horas e 14% defende que o bebé deve mamar 10 minutos em cada mama. Os conhecimentos relacionaram-se significativamente com as mães com ensino superior (x2=17,828; p=0,00) e nas que se encontram a amamentar atualmente (UMW=278,000; p=0,01). As dificuldades mais prevalentes associaram-se às fissuras (56,4%), ingurgitamento mamário (38,5%), mastite (3,8%), dor (40%) e dificuldade na pega (60%), tendo-se constatado diferenças estatisticamente significativas associadas ao ingurgitamento mamário, à mastite e abcesso mamário. Exerce influência nas dificuldades das mães, ter sido informada pelo obstetra (UMW=324,000; p=0,02) e não ter expectativas na primeira amamentação (UMW=521,500; p=0,01). Conclusão: O estudo revela bons conhecimentos globais mas dificuldades elevadas, sendo estas as comumente referenciadas noutros estudos. Face a isto, mantem-se necessário apoiar nas dificuldades vividas durante a amamentação, adequando as estratégias de promoção, proteção e apoio ao AM, para que os resultados possam ser bem-sucedidos. Palavras-chave: aleitamento materno, conhecimentos, dificuldades.

Avaliação de megadoses de retinol palmitato no pós-parto imediato sobre o retinol do leite de puérperas atendidas no Hospital José Pedro Bezerra, Natal-RN

Vitamin A deficiency (VAD) is a serious public health problem in developing countries, and as a therapeutic and prophylactic measure retinil palmitate is being supplemented. Nevertheless its efficacy has been questioned. The objective of the study was to evaluate the supplementation of two retinil palmitate megadosis on the serum retinol levels of post partum healthy mothers from Dr. José Pedro Bezerra (Hospital Santa Catarina) hospital, Natal - RN. The enrolled women (n=199) were randomly distributed into three studied groups and supplemented with retinil palmitate immediately after delivery with a single 200,000 IU dose (group S1), two 200,000 IU dose (group S2) with 24h difference between the doses, or no supplementation (group C). Among women selected, 143 remained until the end of the study. The influence of vitamin A dietary intake was evaluated during pregnancy and after 30 days of delivery. The average intake of the population was reasonable, but a high prevalence of inadequate intake was found. Retinol in colostrums and mature milk was determined by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). The retinol average in colostrums and mature milk in the supplemented and control groups were adequate according to the reference values. In colostrums, women from groups C, S1 and S2 presented retinol averages by milk volume of 94.8 ± 40.2 µg/dL, 92.2 ± 50.0 µg/dL and 91.8 ± 53.7 µg/dL, respectively. No difference was found between these averages (p=0.965), this was also seen when the values where expressed as µg/g of fat (p=0.905). After 30 days of delivery, retinol per milk volume differed between the control group (36.6 ± 17.5 µg/dL) and groups supplemented with 200,000 IU (51.0 ± 28.8 µg/dL) or 400,000 IU (55.2 ± 31.6 µg/dL) of retinil palmitate (p<0,05). Nevertheless, when S1 and S2 groups where compared, no significant difference was found (p=0.97). Considering retinol/g of fat, the means were 12.7 ± 6.7 µg/g, 15.6 ± 8.3 µg/g and 17.2 ± 8.9 µg/g for groups C, S1 and S2, respectively, with significant difference between groups S2 and C (p=0,01). Subclinical VAD prevalence showed a serious public health problem in the study population (32% in colostrums and 31.5% in mature milk). When analyzing the groups separately, the group which received two doses (200,000 IU + 200,000 IU) presented the lowest VAD prevalence (20.7%). Retinil palmitate supplementations of 200,000 IU and 400,000 IU (divided in two doses) in the immediate post partum showed no significant difference. Nevertheless, the 400,000 IU (divided in two doses) supplementation showed a reduction in VAD

Mastite: importância do maneio, ambiente e animal. Plano de prevenção, controlo e impacto na quantidade e qualidade do leite

No presente relatório são caracterizadas e descritas as atividades desenvolvidas durante o estágio curricular na vertente da importância do maneio, ambiente e animal no controlo das mastites. Contempla ainda uma revisão bibliográfica e estudo de caso sobre a problemática das mastites na exploração. No estudo de caso procurou avaliar-se a influência do maneio, ambiente e animal no controlo das mastites e o impacto que estas representam na quantidade e na qualidade do leite. Foi ainda realizado estudo em 30 bovinos, identificados como animais problema, com recolha de amostras de leite para análise de antibiograma com deteção de agente. Foi implementado um plano de prevenção e controlo de mastites que consistiu na implementação de medidas de higiene e maneio dos animais, implementação de operações de rotinas de ordenha, implementação de medidas preventivas com recurso a vacinação e estabelecimentos de protocolos de tratamentos para os animais com patologias associadas às mastites. Os resultados obtidos foram muito positivos, diminuindo de forma drástica a incidência de mastites de 20% para 5% anual e consequentemente, uma melhoria considerável da quantidade de leite (22 para 33 L/vaca/dia) e na qualidade do leite (CCS <300 000 cel/mL) produzido; Abstract: Mastitis: Importance of management, environment and animal. Plan for the prevention, control and impact on the quantity and quality of milk This report characterize and describe the activities carried out during the traineeship in the aspect of the importance of management, environment and animal in the control of mastitis. There is also a literature and a case study on the problem of mastitis on the farm review. In the case study we sought to evaluate the influence of management, environment and animal in the control of mastitis and the impact that they represent in the quantity and quality of milk. A study was also carried out in 30 cattle, identified as problem animals, with milk samples for antibiotic susceptibility analysis with agent detection. It was implemented a mastitis prevention and control plan with the implementation of hygiene measures and husbandry of animals, implementation of milking routine operations, and implementing preventive measures using vaccination and treatment protocols establishment for animal diseases associated with mastitis. The results were very positive, decreasing dramatically the incidence of 20% mastitis to 5% per year and hence a considerable improvement of the quantity (22 to 33 L/cow/day) and quality ( SCC <300,000 cells/mL) of milk produced.

Efeito do estado nutricional bioquímico de retinol e alfatocoferol sobre seus níveis em lactantes

Vitamins A and E are essential nutrients in many biological processes, so that their adequate supply to the neonate is crucial. However, the bioavailability of vitamins may be limited by factors such as maternal nutritional status and the interaction between nutrients. This study aimed to investigate the effect of biochemical nutritional status of retinol and alpha-tocopherol levels in serum and colostrum. The study included 103 healthy puerperal women treated at the reference state maternity hospital (Natal-RN). Colostrum and serum samples were collected fasting in the immediate postpartum period and the analysis of retinol and alpha-tocopherol were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography. Specific cutoff points were adopted to characterize the biochemical status of vitamins A and E. For the total group of lactanting women the average concentration of retinol in serum (1.49 ± 0.4 μmol/L-1) and colostrum (2.18 ± 0.8 μmol/L-1), as well as alpha-tocopherol in serum (26.4 ± 8.0 μmol/L-1) and colostrum (26.1 ± 12.8 μmol/L-1), indicated adequate biochemical state. However, when evaluating the individual, was found a high prevalence of deficient serum (15%) and colostrum retinol (50%), and also alphatocopherol in serum (16%) and colostrum (61%). In women with serum retinol ≥ 1.05 μmol/L-1, found an inverse correlation between serum retinol and alpha-tocopherol in colostrum (p = 0.008, r = -0.28). This association was not observed in women with serum retinol <1.05 μmol/L-1. This situation demonstrates for the first time in humans that high physiological levels of serum retinol, without supplementation, can negatively influence the transfer of alpha-tocopherol in breast milk. Although the diagnosis of satisfactory nutritional status lactanting women showed high risk of subclinical deficiency of vitamins A and E from measurements made in the colostrum

Obésité abdominale et autres déterminants du risque cardiométabolique dans deux populations urbaines noires apparentées : Port-au-Prince (Haïti) et Cotonou (Bénin)

L’obésité est un problème de santé publique reconnu. Dans la dernière décennie l’obésité abdominale (OA) a été considérée comme une maladie métabolique qui contribue davantage au risque de diabète et de maladies cardiovasculaires que l’obésité générale définie par l’indice de masse corporelle. Toutefois, dans les populations d’origine africaine, la relation entre l’OA et les autres biomarqueurs de risque cardiométabolique (RCM) demeure obscure à cause du manque d’études chez ces populations et de l’absence de valeurs-seuils spécifiques pour juger d’une OA. Cette étude visait à comparer la prévalence des biomarqueurs de RCM (OA, hypertension artérielle, hyperglycémie, dyslipidémie, résistance à l'insuline et inflammation pré-clinique) chez les Béninois de Cotonou et les Haïtiens de Port-au-Prince (PAP), à étudier l’association de l’OA avec les autres biomarqueurs de RCM, à documenter le rôle du niveau socio-économique (NSE) et du mode de vie dans cette association et à ’identifier les indicateurs anthropométriques de l’OA -tour de taille (TT) et le ratio TT/hauteur (TT/H)- et les seuils qui prédisent le mieux le RCM à Cotonou et à PAP. Il s’est agi d’une analyse de données transversales chez 452 adultes (52 % hommes) apparemment en bonne santé, âgés de 25 à 60 ans, avec 200 sujets vivant à Cotonou (Bénin) et 252 sujets à PAP (Haïti). Les biomarqueurs de RCM considérés étaient : le syndrome métabolique (SMet) d’après les critères harmonisés de 2009 et ses composantes individuelles - une OA à partir d’un TT ≥ 94cm chez les hommes et ≥ 80cm chez les femmes, une hypertension, une dyslipidémie et une hyperglycémie; la résistance à l’insuline définie chez l’ensemble des sujets de l’étude à partir du 75e centile de l’Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA-IR); un ratio d’athérogénicité élevé (Cholestérol sérique total/HDL-Cholestérol); et l’inflammation pré-clinique mesurée à partir d’un niveau de protéine C-réactive ultrasensible (PCRus) entre 3 et 10 mg/l. Le ratio TT/H était aussi considéré pour définir l’OA à partir d’un seuil de 0,5. Les données sur les habitudes alimentaires, la consommation d’alcool, le tabagisme, les caractéristiques sociodémographiques et les conditions socio-économiques incluant le niveau d’éducation et un proxy du revenu (basé sur l’analyse par composante principale des biens et des possessions) ont été recueillies au moyen d’un questionnaire. Sur la base de données de fréquence de consommation d’aliments occidentaux, urbains et traditionnels, des schémas alimentaires des sujets de chaque ville ont été identifiés par analyse typologique. La validité et les valeurs-seuils de TT et du ratio TT/H prédictives du RCM ont été définies à partir des courbes ROC (Receiver Operating Characteristics). Le SMet était présent chez 21,5 % et 16,1 % des participants, respectivement à Cotonou et à PAP. La prévalence d’OA était élevée à Cotonou (52,5 %) qu’à PAP (36%), avec une prévalence plus élevée chez les femmes que chez les hommes. Le profil lipidique sérique était plus athérogène à PAP avec 89,3 % d’HDL-c bas à PAP contre 79,7 % à Cotonou et un ratio CT/HDL-c élevé de 73,4 % à PAP contre 42 % à Cotonou. Les valeurs-seuils spécifiques de TT et du TT/H étaient respectivement 94 cm et 0,59 chez les femmes et 80 cm et 0,50 chez les hommes. Les analyses multivariées de l’OA avec les biomarqueurs de RCM les plus fortement prévalents dans ces deux populations montraient que l’OA était associée à un risque accru de résistance à l’insuline, d’athérogénicité et de tension artérielle élevée et ceci, indépendamment des facteurs socio-économiques et du mode de vie. Deux schémas alimentaires ont émergé, transitionnel et traditionnel, dans chaque ville, mais ceux-ci ne se révélaient pas associés aux biomarqueurs de RCM bien qu’ils soient en lien avec les variables socio-économiques. La présente étude confirme la présence de plusieurs biomarqueurs de RCM chez des sujets apparemment sains. En outre, l’OA est un élément clé du RCM dans ces deux populations. Les seuils actuels de TT devraient être reconsidérés éventuellement à la lumière d’études de plus grande envergure, afin de mieux définir l’OA chez les Noirs africains ou d’origine africaine, ce qui permettra une surveillance épidémiologique plus adéquate des biomarqueurs de RCM.

Thyroid function in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis patients with or without human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection before commencement of MDR-TB drug regimen.

Background: Mycobacterium tuberculosis and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are known to cause abnormal thyroid function. There is little information on whether HIV infection aggravates alteration of thyroid function in patients with MDRTB. Objectives: This study was carried out to determine if HIV co-infection alters serum levels of thyroid hormones (T3, T4) and thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) in patients with MDR-TB patients and to find out the frequency of subclinical thyroid dysfunction before the commencement of MDR-TB therapy. Methods: This observational and cross-sectional study involved all the newly admitted patients in MDR-TB Referral Centre, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria between July 2010 and December 2014. Serum levels of thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine (fT4) and free triiodothyronine (fT3) were determined using ELISA. Results: Enrolled were 115 patients with MDR-TB, out of which 22 (19.13%) had MDR-TB/HIV co-infection. Sick euthyroid syndrome (SES), subclinical hypothyroidism and subclinical hyperthyroidism were observed in 5 (4.35%), 9 (7.83%) and 2 (1.74%) patients respectively. The median level of TSH was insignificantly higher while the median levels of T3 and T4 were insignificantly lower in patients with MDR-TB/HIV co-infection compared with patients with MDRT-TB only. Conclusion: It could be concluded from this study that patients with MDR-TB/HIV co-infection have a similar thyroid function as patients having MDR-TB without HIV infection before commencement of MDR-TB drug regimen. Also, there is a possibility of subclinical thyroid dysfunction in patients with MDR-TB/HIV co-infection even, before the commencement of MDR-TB therapy.

Diagnostico de endometritis subclínica en vacas lecheras

Las enfermedades uterinas en el período posparto comprometen seriamente la eficiencia reproductiva. La clasificación hecha hace pocos años por Sheldon et al. (2006) permite diagnosticarlas con mayor facilidad de acuerdo al tiempo transcurrido desde el parto a su detección y diagnóstico. De acuerdo con esta clasificación ha sido posible utilizar las denominaciones de metritis puerperal a la que transcurre entre los días 4 a 10 posparto; a la endometritis clínica y la piómetra, que se observan a partir del día 14 posparto y la endometritis subclínica que ocurre en cualquier momento posterior a la culminación histológica de la involución uterina (en general más allá de las 5 a 6 semanas del posparto). En esta revisión se realiza un análisis de cada una de estas presentaciones y sus características. Finalmente se describen los tratamientos posibles que en su conjunto aún no han permitido una solución total quedando claro que es un control precoz y sobre todo durante el período de transición lo que permite disminuir el impacto de estas patologías sobre el tracto reproductivo y así mejorar la eficiencia reproductiva de la vaca lechera.

Efecto de la ozonoterapia sobre el intervalo parto-celo y la fertilidad en vacas lecheras

En la vaca lechera la atención médica del puerperio es fundamental en los programas de manejo reproductivo. Durante este periodo se diagnostican y tratan patologías del útero con el propósito de acortar el periodo de espera voluntaria (Djuricic et al., 2012a). La ozonoterapia como medicina alternativa, es usada en tratamientos de mastitis y otros procesos infecciosos reproductivos intrauterinos (endometritis, metritis, etc.). El Ozono tiene propiedades desinfectantes, antivirales, y antibacterianas sistémicas, mejora el metabolismo celular, aumentando el número de glóbulos rojos, oxigenando mejor la sangre y aumentando la presión arterial, de esta manera la sangre pasa más rápido por las partes afectadas ejerciendo así un efecto positivo sobre los tejidos (Djuricic et al., 2012b). El objetivo del trabajo fue evaluar el efecto de la ozonoterapia sobre el intervalo parto-celo y la fertilidad de las vacas.

Alteraciones de la calidad y cantidad de la produccion de leche en presencia de map a traves de ELISA PPA

La paratuberculosis (PTB) o enfermedad de Johne es una enteritis granulomatosa infecto-contagiosa de curso crónico e incurable que afecta a los rumiantes, causada por Mycobacterium avium spp paratuberculosis (Map). Las pérdidas económicas por PTB se dan debido a la reducción de las producciones cárnica y láctea, disminución de la fertilidad, incremento en la incidencia de mastitis, menor expectativa de vida productiva de la hembra, eliminación prematura de animales, etc. El objetivo del trabajo es evaluar el impacto de la infección de Map identificada mediante la detección de anticuerpos en la leche, sobre la producción de leche (cantidad y calidad) a partir del estudio individual de las hembras en producción.

PREVALENCE AND PREDICTORS OF VITAMIN A DEFICIENCY AMONG INFANTS IN WESTERN KENYA USING A CROSS-SECTIONAL ANALYSIS

Vitamin A (VA) deficiency (VAD) is a major nutritional public health problem among children under-5-years-old in the developing world including Kenya. A community-based cross-sectional survey among 1,630 children (aged 6-23 mos) was undertaken in Western Kenya. A questionnaire was administered to collect demographic, socio-economic and dietary intake information. Prevalence of low retinol-binding protein (RBP) concentrations was assessed using Dried Blood Spot (DBS) methodology. Analysis of RBP was carried out using rapid enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and C-reactive protein (CRP) was carried out using enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to estimate VA and sub-clinical inflammation statuses, respectively. Values were adjusted for influence of inflammation using CRP (CRP >5 mg/L) and population prevalence of VAD (RBP <0.825 μmol/L, biologically equivalent to 0.70 μmol/L retinol) estimated. Anthropometric data gave three indices: stunting, wasting and underweight—all of which took age and sex into consideration. Mean (geometric± SD) concentration of RBP was adequate (1.56±0.79μmol/L) but the inflammation-adjusted mean (±SE) prevalence of VAD was high (20.1±1.1%) in this population. The level of CRP was within normal range (1.06±4.95 mg/L) whilst 18.4±0.9% of the children had subclinical inflammation (CRP>5 mg/L). Intake of VA capsule (VAC) by a child was a predictor of VAD with children who have not taken VA during the past 1 year prior to the survey having a 30% increased risk of VAD (OR (CI): 1.3 (1.1-1.7); p=0.025. Additionally, age of the child was a predictor with older children (18-23 mos) having a 30 % increased risk of VAD (OR (CI): 1.3 (1.1-1.9); p=0.035); the caretaker’s knowledge on VA and nutrition was also a predictor of VAD with children whose caretaker’s had poor knowledge having a 40 % increased risk of VAD (OR (CI): 1.4 (1.0-1.9); p=0.027. A child’s district of residence was also a significant predictor of VAD. Prevalence of VAD in this sample of infants was high. Predictors of VAD included child intake of VAC in the last 1 year before the survey, older children, children whose caretakers had poor VA and nutritional knowledge and a child’s district of residence. There is a need to improve knowledge on nutrition and VA of caretakers; undertake a targeted VAC distribution, particularly in children older than 1 year and above and use a sustainable food-based intervention in the areas with severe VAD.

Management interventions in dairy herds: exploring within herd uncertainty using an integrated Bayesian model

Knowledge of the efficacy of an intervention for disease control on an individual farm is essential to make good decisions on preventive healthcare, but the uncertainty in outcome associated with undertaking a specific control strategy has rarely been considered in veterinary medicine. The purpose of this research was to explore the uncertainty in change in disease incidence and financial benefit that could occur on different farms, when two effective farm management interventions are undertaken. Bovine mastitis was used as an example disease and the research was conducted using data from an intervention study as prior information within an integrated Bayesian simulation model. Predictions were made of the reduction in clinical mastitis within 30 days of calving on 52 farms, attributable to the application of two herd interventions previously reported as effective; rotation of dry cow pasture and differential dry cow therapy. Results indicated that there were important degrees of uncertainty in the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis for individual farms when either intervention was undertaken; the magnitude of the 95% credible intervals for reduced clinical mastitis incidence were substantial and of clinical relevance. The large uncertainty associated with the predicted reduction in clinical mastitis attributable to the interventions resulted in important variability in possible financial outcomes for each farm. The uncertainty in outcome associated with farm control measures illustrates the difficulty facing a veterinary clinician when making an on-farm decision and highlights the importance of iterative herd health procedures (continual evaluation, reassessment and adjusted interventions) to optimise health in an individual herd.

Use of posterior predictive assessments to evaluate model fit in multilevel logistic regression

Assessing the fit of a model is an important final step in any statistical analysis, but this is not straightforward when complex discrete response models are used. Cross validation and posterior predictions have been suggested as methods to aid model criticism. In this paper a comparison is made between four methods of model predictive assessment in the context of a three level logistic regression model for clinical mastitis in dairy cattle; cross validation, a prediction using the full posterior predictive distribution and two “mixed” predictive methods that incorporate higher level random effects simulated from the underlying model distribution. Cross validation is considered a gold standard method but is computationally intensive and thus a comparison is made between posterior predictive assessments and cross validation. The analyses revealed that mixed prediction methods produced results close to cross validation whilst the full posterior predictive assessment gave predictions that were over-optimistic (closer to the observed disease rates) compared with cross validation. A mixed prediction method that simulated random effects from both higher levels was best at identifying the outlying level two (farm-year) units of interest. It is concluded that this mixed prediction method, simulating random effects from both higher levels, is straightforward and may be of value in model criticism of multilevel logistic regression, a technique commonly used for animal health data with a hierarchical structure.