Telehealth responses to bio-terrorism and emerging infections

Emerging infectious diseases, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), are of huge economic importance. They are difficult to predict. The World Health Organization has a Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network, which was involved at an early stage in the SARS outbreak in 2003. Three major lessons were learned as a result of the SARS epidemic in 2003, involving communication, evidence-based action and global partnerships. It is proposed that a series of broadband global response networks should be developed. At a technical level the networks are essentially in place, such as the Internet2 global network. Suitable peripheral devices also exist. What has not yet been created is the appropriate software to allow the use of these networks, although a number of commercial products are in the process of development.

Ultraviolet signals in birds are special

Recent behavioural experiments have shown that birds use ultraviolet (UV)-reflective and fluorescent plumage as cues in mate choice. It remains controversial, however, whether such UV signals play a special role in sexual communication, or whether they are part of general plumage coloration. We use a comparative approach to test for a general association between sexual signalling and either UV-reflective or fluorescent plumage. Among the species surveyed, 72% have UV colours and there is a significant positive association between UV reflectance and courtship displays. Among parrots (Psittaciformes), 68% of surveyed species have fluorescent plumage, and again there is a strong positive association between courtship displays and fluorescence. These associations are not artefacts of the plumage used in courtship displays, being generally more 'colourful' because there is no association between display and colours lacking UV reflectance or fluorescence. Equally, these associations are not phylogenetic artefacts because all results remain unchanged when families or genera, rather than species, are used as independent data points. We also find that, in parrots, fluorescent plumage is usually found adjacent to UV-reflective plumage. Using a simple visual model to examine one parrot, the budgerigar Melopsittacus undulatus, we show that the juxtaposition of UV-reflective and fluorescent plumage leads to a 25-fold increase in chromatic contrast to the budgerigar's visual system. Taken together, these results suggest that signals based on UV contrast are of special importance in the context of active sexual displays. We review briefly six hypotheses on why this may be the case: suitability for short-range signalling; high contrast with backgrounds; invisibility to predators; exploitation of pre-existing sensory biases; advertisement of feather structure; and amplification of behavioural signals.

Quantum dynamical characterization of unimolecular resonances

We give a selective review of quantum mechanical methods for calculating and characterizing resonances in small molecular systems, with an emphasis on recent progress in Chebyshev and Lanczos iterative methods. Two archetypal molecular systems are discussed: isolated resonances in HCO, which exhibit regular mode and state specificity, and overlapping resonances in strongly bound HO2, which exhibit irregular and chaotic behavior. Future directions in this field are also discussed.

Acute liver failure in children: A regional experience

Objective: To review the outcome of acute liver failure (ALF) and the effect of liver transplantation in children in Australia. Methodology: A retrospective review was conducted of all paediatric patients referred with acute liver failure between 1985 and 2000 to the Queensland Liver Transplant Service, a paediatric liver transplant centre based at the Royal Children's Hospital, Brisbane, that is one of three paediatric transplant centres in Australia. Results: Twenty-six patients were referred with ALF. Four patients did not require transplantation and recovered with medical therapy while two were excluded because of irreversible neurological changes and died. Of the 20 patients considered for transplant, three refused for social and/or religious reasons, with 17 patients listed for transplantation. One patient recovered spontaneously and one died before receiving a transplant. There were 15 transplants of which 40% (6/15) were < 2 years old. Sixty-seven per cent (10/15) survived > 1 month after transplantation. Forty per cent (6/15) survived more than 6 months after transplant. There were only four long-term survivors after transplant for ALF (27%). Overall, 27% (6/22) of patients referred with ALF survived. Of the 16 patients that died, 44% (7/16) were from neurological causes. Most of these were from cerebral oedema but two patients transplanted for valproate hepatotoxicity died from neurological disease despite good graft function. Conclusions: Irreversible neurological disease remains a major cause of death in children with ALF. We recommend better patient selection and early referral and transfer to a transplant centre before onset of irreversible neurological disease to optimize outcome of children transplanted for ALF.

Sexual dysfunction in the Australian population

AIM: To describe the prevalence and forms of sexual dysfunction experienced by Australians, and compare these with people in the United States. METHODS: A cross sectional, telephone interview survey of a randomly selected sample of men (n = 876) and women (n = 908) aged between 18 and 59 years on the electoral roll in all states and territories of Australia (response rate = 61%) was conducted between November 1999 and April 2000. RESULTS: Large proportions of Australian men (55.0%) and women (60.5%) reported at least one sexual problem within the preceding year. More serious sexual dysfunction (> 3 symptoms) was observed in 13.2% of men and 19.7% of women. DISCUSSION: Australia and the USA are similar with regard to the high rate of symptoms of sexual dysfunction observed in the population. The low rate of treatment points to both patient and doctor reluctance to discuss sexual performance and practices.

N-aminopyrroledione-hydrazonoketene-pyrazolium oxide-pyrazolone rearrangements and pyrazolone tautomerism

Flash vacuum thermolysis (FVT) of 1-(dimethylamino)pyrrole-2,3-diones 5 causes extrusion of CO with formation of transient hydrazonoketenes 7. The transient ketenes 7 are observable in the form of weak bands at 2130 (7a) or 2115 cm(-1) (7b) in the Ar matrix IR spectra resulting from either FVT or photolysis of either 5 or 1,1- dimethylpyrazolium-5- oxides 8, and these absorptions are in excellent agreement with B3LYP/6-31G* frequency calculations. Under FVT conditions the ketenes 7 cyclize to pyrazolium oxides 8, which undergo 1,4-migration of a methyl group to yield 1,4-dimethyl-3-phenylpyrazole-5(4H)-one 9a and 1,4,4-trimethyl-3-phenylpyrazole-5(4H)-one 9b. All three tautomers of 9a have been characterized, viz. the CH form 9a (most stable form in the gas phase, the solid state and solvents of low polarity), the OH form 9a' (metastable solid at room temperature) and the NH form 9a (stable in aprotic dipolar solvents). The isomeric 1,4-dimethyl-5-phenylpyrazole-3(2H)-one 12 tautomerizes to the 3-hydroxypyrazole 12'. The crystal structure of the hydrochloride 14 of 9a'/9a is reported, representing the first structurally characterised example of a protonated 5-hydroxypyrazole.

On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.