Robust scenario formulations for strategic supply chain optimization under uncertainty

Strategic supply chain optimization (SCO) problems are often modelled as a two-stage optimization problem, in which the first-stage variables represent decisions on the development of the supply chain and the second-stage variables represent decisions on the operations of the supply chain. When uncertainty is explicitly considered, the problem becomes an intractable infinite-dimensional optimization problem, which is usually solved approximately via a scenario or a robust approach. This paper proposes a novel synergy of the scenario and robust approaches for strategic SCO under uncertainty. Two formulations are developed, namely, naïve robust scenario formulation and affinely adjustable robust scenario formulation. It is shown that both formulations can be reformulated into tractable deterministic optimization problems if the uncertainty is bounded with the infinity-norm, and the uncertain equality constraints can be reformulated into deterministic constraints without assumption of the uncertainty region. Case studies of a classical farm planning problem and an energy and bioproduct SCO problem demonstrate the advantages of the proposed formulations over the classical scenario formulation. The proposed formulations not only can generate solutions with guaranteed feasibility or indicate infeasibility of a problem, but also can achieve optimal expected economic performance with smaller numbers of scenarios.

Statistically robust representation and comparison of mortality profiles in archaeozoology

Archaeozoological mortality profiles have been used to infer site-specific subsistence strategies. There is however no common agreement on the best way to present these profiles and confidence intervals around age class proportions. In order to deal with these issues, we propose the use of the Dirichlet distribution and present a new approach to perform age-at-death multivariate graphical comparisons. We demonstrate the efficiency of this approach using domestic sheep/goat dental remains from 10 Cardial sites (Early Neolithic) located in South France and the Iberian Peninsula. We show that the Dirichlet distribution in age-at-death analysis can be used: (i) to generate Bayesian credible intervals around each age class of a mortality profile, even when not all age classes are observed; and (ii) to create 95% kernel density contours around each age-at-death frequency distribution when multiple sites are compared using correspondence analysis. The statistical procedure we present is applicable to the analysis of any categorical count data and particularly well-suited to archaeological data (e.g. potsherds, arrow heads) where sample sizes are typically small.

Climate-Driven Range Shifts Within Benthic Habitats Across a Marine Biogeographic Transition Zone.

Anthropogenic climate change is causing unprecedented rapid responses in marine communities, with species across many different taxonomic groups showing faster shifts in biogeographic ranges than in any other ecosystem. Spatial and temporal trends for many marine species are difficult to quantify, however, due to the lack of long-term datasets across complete geographical distributions and the occurrence of small-scale variability from both natural and anthropogenic drivers. Understanding these changes requires a multidisciplinary approach to bring together patterns identified within long-term datasets and the processes driving those patterns using biologically relevant mechanistic information to accurately attribute cause and effect. This must include likely future biological responses, and detection of the underlying mechanisms in order to scale up from the organismal level to determine how communities and ecosystems are likely to respond across a range of future climate change scenarios. Using this multidisciplinary approach will improve the use of robust science to inform the development of fit-for-purpose policy to effectively manage marine environments in this rapidly changing world.

Climate-Driven Range Shifts Within Benthic Habitats Across a Marine Biogeographic Transition Zone.

Anthropogenic climate change is causing unprecedented rapid responses in marine communities, with species across many different taxonomic groups showing faster shifts in biogeographic ranges than in any other ecosystem. Spatial and temporal trends for many marine species are difficult to quantify, however, due to the lack of long-term datasets across complete geographical distributions and the occurrence of small-scale variability from both natural and anthropogenic drivers. Understanding these changes requires a multidisciplinary approach to bring together patterns identified within long-term datasets and the processes driving those patterns using biologically relevant mechanistic information to accurately attribute cause and effect. This must include likely future biological responses, and detection of the underlying mechanisms in order to scale up from the organismal level to determine how communities and ecosystems are likely to respond across a range of future climate change scenarios. Using this multidisciplinary approach will improve the use of robust science to inform the development of fit-for-purpose policy to effectively manage marine environments in this rapidly changing world.

Robust indoor speaker recognition in a network of audio and video sensors

Situational awareness is achieved naturally by the human senses of sight and hearing in combination. Automatic scene understanding aims at replicating this human ability using microphones and cameras in cooperation. In this paper, audio and video signals are fused and integrated at different levels of semantic abstractions. We detect and track a speaker who is relatively unconstrained, i.e., free to move indoors within an area larger than the comparable reported work, which is usually limited to round table meetings. The system is relatively simple: consisting of just 4 microphone pairs and a single camera. Results show that the overall multimodal tracker is more reliable than single modality systems, tolerating large occlusions and cross-talk. System evaluation is performed on both single and multi-modality tracking. The performance improvement given by the audio–video integration and fusion is quantified in terms of tracking precision and accuracy as well as speaker diarisation error rate and precision–recall (recognition). Improvements vs. the closest works are evaluated: 56% sound source localisation computational cost over an audio only system, 8% speaker diarisation error rate over an audio only speaker recognition unit and 36% on the precision–recall metric over an audio–video dominant speaker recognition method.

On covariate factor detection and removal for robust gait recognition

We propose a novel bolt-on module capable of boosting the robustness of various single compact 2D gait representations. Gait recognition is negatively influenced by covariate factors including clothing and time which alter the natural gait appearance and motion. Contrary to traditional gait recognition, our bolt-on module remedies this by a dedicated covariate factor detection and removal procedure which we quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate. The fundamental concept of the bolt-on module is founded on exploiting the pixel-wise composition of covariate factors. Results demonstrate how our bolt-on module is a powerful component leading to significant improvements across gait representations and datasets yielding state-of-the-art results.

A biologically inspired appearance model for robust visual tracking

In this work, we propose a biologically inspired appearance model for robust visual tracking. Motivated in part by the success of the hierarchical organization of the primary visual cortex (area V1), we establish an architecture consisting of five layers: whitening, rectification, normalization, coding and polling. The first three layers stem from the models developed for object recognition. In this paper, our attention focuses on the coding and pooling layers. In particular, we use a discriminative sparse coding method in the coding layer along with spatial pyramid representation in the pooling layer, which makes it easier to distinguish the target to be tracked from its background in the presence of appearance variations. An extensive experimental study shows that the proposed method has higher tracking accuracy than several state-of-the-art trackers.

Outlier effects on robust joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data

Robust joint modelling is an emerging field of research. Through the advancements in electronic patient healthcare records, the popularly of joint modelling approaches has grown rapidly in recent years providing simultaneous analysis of longitudinal and survival data. This research advances previous work through the development of a novel robust joint modelling methodology for one of the most common types of standard joint models, that which links a linear mixed model with a Cox proportional hazards model. Through t-distributional assumptions, longitudinal outliers are accommodated with their detrimental impact being down weighed and thus providing more efficient and reliable estimates. The robust joint modelling technique and its major benefits are showcased through the analysis of Northern Irish end stage renal disease patients. With an ageing population and growing prevalence of chronic kidney disease within the United Kingdom, there is a pressing demand to investigate the detrimental relationship between the changing haemoglobin levels of haemodialysis patients and their survival. As outliers within the NI renal data were found to have significantly worse survival, identification of outlying individuals through robust joint modelling may aid nephrologists to improve patient's survival. A simulation study was also undertaken to explore the difference between robust and standard joint models in the presence of increasing proportions and extremity of longitudinal outliers. More efficient and reliable estimates were obtained by robust joint models with increasing contrast between the robust and standard joint models when a greater proportion of more extreme outliers are present. Through illustration of the gains in efficiency and reliability of parameters when outliers exist, the potential of robust joint modelling is evident. The research presented in this thesis highlights the benefits and stresses the need to utilise a more robust approach to joint modelling in the presence of longitudinal outliers.