Validation of Two US Risk Scores for Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in a Single-Center Portuguese Population of Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

INTRODUCTION: New scores have been developed and validated in the US for in-hospital mortality risk stratification in patients undergoing coronary angioplasty: the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) risk score and the Mayo Clinic Risk Score (MCRS). We sought to validate these scores in a European population with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and to compare their predictive accuracy with that of the GRACE risk score. METHODS: In a single-center ACS registry of patients undergoing coronary angioplasty, we used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), a graphical representation of observed vs. expected mortality, and net reclassification improvement (NRI)/integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) analysis to compare the scores. RESULTS: A total of 2148 consecutive patients were included, mean age 63 years (SD 13), 74% male and 71% with ST-segment elevation ACS. In-hospital mortality was 4.5%. The GRACE score showed the best AUC (0.94, 95% CI 0.91-0.96) compared with NCDR (0.87, 95% CI 0.83-0.91, p=0.0003) and MCRS (0.85, 95% CI 0.81-0.90, p=0.0003). In model calibration analysis, GRACE showed the best predictive power. With GRACE, patients were more often correctly classified than with MCRS (NRI 78.7, 95% CI 59.6-97.7; IDI 0.136, 95% CI 0.073-0.199) or NCDR (NRI 79.2, 95% CI 60.2-98.2; IDI 0.148, 95% CI 0.087-0.209). CONCLUSION: The NCDR and Mayo Clinic risk scores are useful for risk stratification of in-hospital mortality in a European population of patients with ACS undergoing coronary angioplasty. However, the GRACE score is still to be preferred.

Three essays in risky behaviors

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Search-for-yield in Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds and monetary policy

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy on mutual fund risk taking using a sample of Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds in the 2000-2012 period. Firstly I estimate time-varying measures of risk exposure (betas) for the individual funds, for the benchmark portfolio, as well as for a representative equally-weighted portfolio, through 24-month rolling regressions of a two-factor model with two systematic risk factors: interest rate risk (TERM) and default risk (DEF). Next, in the second phase, using the estimated betas, I try to understand what portion of the risk exposure is in excess of the benchmark (active risk) and how it relates to monetary policy proxies (one-month rate, Taylor residual, real rate and first principal component of a cross-section of government yields and rates). Using this methodology, I provide empirical evidence that Portuguese fixed-income mutual funds respond to accommodative monetary policy by significantly increasing exposure, in excess of their benchmarks, to default risk rate and slightly to interest risk rate as well. I also find that the increase in funds’ risk exposure to gain a boost in return (search-for-yield) is more pronounced following the 2007-2009 global financial crisis, indicating that the current historic low interest rates may incentivize excessive risk taking. My results suggest that monetary policy affects the risk appetite of non-bank financial intermediaries.

Biomedical risk assessment as an aid for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: A possible strategy for increasing smoking cessation rates could be to provide smokers who have contact with healthcare systems with feedback on the biomedical or potential future effects of smoking, e.g. measurement of exhaled carbon monoxide (CO), lung function, or genetic susceptibility to lung cancer. OBJECTIVES: To determine the efficacy of biomedical risk assessment provided in addition to various levels of counselling, as a contributing aid to smoking cessation. SEARCH STRATEGY: We systematically searched the Cochrane Collaboration Tobacco Addiction Group Specialized Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials 2008 Issue 4, MEDLINE (1966 to January 2009), and EMBASE (1980 to January 2009). We combined methodological terms with terms related to smoking cessation counselling and biomedical measurements. SELECTION CRITERIA: Inclusion criteria were: a randomized controlled trial design; subjects participating in smoking cessation interventions; interventions based on a biomedical test to increase motivation to quit; control groups receiving all other components of intervention; an outcome of smoking cessation rate at least six months after the start of the intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two assessors independently conducted data extraction on each paper, with disagreements resolved by consensus. Results were expressed as a relative risk (RR) for smoking cessation with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Where appropriate a pooled effect was estimated using a Mantel-Haenszel fixed effect method. MAIN RESULTS: We included eleven trials using a variety of biomedical tests. Two pairs of trials had sufficiently similar recruitment, setting and interventions to calculate a pooled effect; there was no evidence that CO measurement in primary care (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.32) or spirometry in primary care (RR 1.18, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.81) increased cessation rates. We did not pool the other seven trials. One trial in primary care detected a significant benefit of lung age feedback after spirometry (RR 2.12; 95% CI 1.24 to 3.62). One trial that used ultrasonography of carotid and femoral arteries and photographs of plaques detected a benefit (RR 2.77; 95% CI 1.04 to 7.41) but enrolled a population of light smokers. Five trials failed to detect evidence of a significant effect. One of these tested CO feedback alone and CO + genetic susceptibility as two different intervention; none of the three possible comparisons detected significant effects. Three others used a combination of CO and spirometry feedback in different settings, and one tested for a genetic marker. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: There is little evidence about the effects of most types of biomedical tests for risk assessment. Spirometry combined with an interpretation of the results in terms of 'lung age' had a significant effect in a single good quality trial. Mixed quality evidence does not support the hypothesis that other types of biomedical risk assessment increase smoking cessation in comparison to standard treatment. Only two pairs of studies were similar enough in term of recruitment, setting, and intervention to allow meta-analysis.

Risk prediction of prevalent diabetes in a Swiss population using a weighted genetic score--the CoLaus Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Several susceptibility genes for type 2 diabetes have been discovered recently. Individually, these genes increase the disease risk only minimally. The goals of the present study were to determine, at the population level, the risk of diabetes in individuals who carry risk alleles within several susceptibility genes for the disease and the added value of this genetic information over the clinical predictors. METHODS: We constructed an additive genetic score using the most replicated single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within 15 type 2 diabetes-susceptibility genes, weighting each SNP with its reported effect. We tested this score in the extensively phenotyped population-based cross-sectional CoLaus Study in Lausanne, Switzerland (n = 5,360), involving 356 diabetic individuals. RESULTS: The clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes were age, BMI, family history of diabetes, WHR, and triacylglycerol/HDL-cholesterol ratio. After adjustment for these variables, the risk of diabetes was 2.7 (95% CI 1.8-4.0, p = 0.000006) for individuals with a genetic score within the top quintile, compared with the bottom quintile. Adding the genetic score to the clinical covariates improved the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve slightly (from 0.86 to 0.87), yet significantly (p = 0.002). BMI was similar in these two extreme quintiles. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In this population, a simple weighted 15 SNP-based genetic score provides additional information over clinical predictors of prevalent diabetes. At this stage, however, the clinical benefit of this genetic information is limited.

Men perform comparably to women in a perspective taking task after administration of intranasal oxytocin but not after placebo

Oxytocin (OT) is thought to play an important role in human interpersonal information processing and behavior. By inference, OT should facilitate empathic responding, i.e. the ability to feel for others and to take their perspective. In two independent double-blind, placebo-controlled between-subjects studies, we assessed the effect of intranasally administered OT on affective empathy and perspective taking, whilst also examining potential sex differences (e.g., women being more empathic than men). In study 1, we provided 96 participants (48 men) with an empathy scenario and recorded self reports of empathic reactions to the scenario, while in study 2, a sample of 120 individuals (60 men) performed a computerized implicit perspective taking task. Whilst results from Study 1 showed no influence of OT on affective empathy, we found in Study 2 that OT exerted an effect on perspective taking ability in men. More specifically, men responded faster than women in the placebo group but they responded as slowly as women in the OT group. We conjecture that men in the OT group adopted a social perspective taking strategy, such as did women in both groups, but not men in the placebo group. On the basis of results across both studies, we suggest that self-report measures (such as used in Study 1) might be less sensitive to OT effects than more implicit measures of empathy such as that used in Study 2. If these assumptions are confirmed, one could infer that OT effects on empathic responses are more pronounced in men than women, and that any such effect is best studied using more implicit measures of empathy rather than explicit self-report measures.

Selected polymorphisms in sex hormone-related genes, circulating sex hormones and risk of endometrial cancer.

BACKGROUND: The role of estrogen and progesterone in the development of endometrial cancer is well documented. Few studies have examined the association of genetic variants in sex hormone-related genes with endometrial cancer risk. METHODS: We conducted a case-control study nested within three cohorts to examine the association of endometrial cancer risk with polymorphisms in hormone-related genes among 391 cases (92% postmenopausal at diagnosis) and 712 individually-matched controls. We also examined the association of these polymorphisms with circulating levels of sex hormones and SHBG in a cross-sectional analysis including 596 healthy postmenopausal women at blood donation (controls from this nested case-control study and from a nested case-control study of breast cancer in one of the three cohorts). RESULTS: Adjusting for endometrial cancer risk factors, the A allele of rs4775936 in CYP19 was significantly associated (OR(per allele)=1.22, 95% CI=1.01-1.47, p(trend)=0.04), while the T allele of rs10046 was marginally associated with increased risk of endometrial cancer (OR(per allele)=1.20, 95% CI=0.99-1.45, p(trend)=0.06). PGR rs1042838 was also marginally associated with risk (OR(per allele)=1.25, 95% CI=0.96-1.61, p(trend)=0.09). No significant association was found for the other polymorphisms, i.e. CYP1B1 rs1800440 and rs1056836, UGT1A1 rs8175347, SHBG rs6259 and ESR1 rs2234693. Rs8175347 was significantly associated with postmenopausal levels of estradiol, free estradiol and estrone and rs6259 with SHBG and estradiol. CONCLUSION: Our findings support an association between genetic variants in CYP19, and possibly PGR, and risk of endometrial cancer.

Controversies about the enhanced vulnerability of the adolescent brain to develop addiction.

Adolescence, defined as a transition phase toward autonomy and independence, is a natural time of learning and adjustment, particularly in the setting of long-term goals and personal aspirations. It also is a period of heightened sensation seeking, including risk taking and reckless behaviors, which is a major cause of morbidity and mortality among teenagers. Recent observations suggest that a relative immaturity in frontal cortical neural systems may underlie the adolescent propensity for uninhibited risk taking and hazardous behaviors. However, converging preclinical and clinical studies do not support a simple model of frontal cortical immaturity, and there is substantial evidence that adolescents engage in dangerous activities, including drug abuse, despite knowing and understanding the risks involved. Therefore, a current consensus considers that much brain development during adolescence occurs in brain regions and systems that are critically involved in the perception and evaluation of risk and reward, leading to important changes in social and affective processing. Hence, rather than naive, immature and vulnerable, the adolescent brain, particularly the prefrontal cortex, should be considered as prewired for expecting novel experiences. In this perspective, thrill seeking may not represent a danger but rather a window of opportunities permitting the development of cognitive control through multiple experiences. However, if the maturation of brain systems implicated in self-regulation is contextually dependent, it is important to understand which experiences matter most. In particular, it is essential to unveil the underpinning mechanisms by which recurrent adverse episodes of stress or unrestricted access to drugs can shape the adolescent brain and potentially trigger life-long maladaptive responses.

Biomedical risk assessment as an aid for smoking cessation.

BACKGROUND: A possible strategy for increasing smoking cessation rates could be to provide smokers who have contact with healthcare systems with feedback on the biomedical or potential future effects of smoking, e.g. measurement of exhaled carbon monoxide (CO), lung function, or genetic susceptibility to lung cancer. We reviewed systematically data on smoking cessation rates from controlled trials that used biomedical risk assessment and feedback. OBJECTIVES: To determine the efficacy of biomedical risk assessment provided in addition to various levels of counselling, as a contributing aid to smoking cessation. SEARCH STRATEGY: We systematically searched he Cochrane Collaboration Tobacco Addiction Group Specialized Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE (1966 to 2004), and EMBASE (1980 to 2004). We combined methodological terms with terms related to smoking cessation counselling and biomedical measurements. SELECTION CRITERIA: Inclusion criteria were: a randomized controlled trial design; subjects participating in smoking cessation interventions; interventions based on a biomedical test to increase motivation to quit; control groups receiving all other components of intervention; an outcome of smoking cessation rate at least six months after the start of the intervention. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two assessors independently conducted data extraction on each paper, with disagreements resolved by consensus. MAIN RESULTS: From 4049 retrieved references, we selected 170 for full text assessment. We retained eight trials for data extraction and analysis. One of the eight used CO alone and CO + Genetic Susceptibility as two different intervention groups, giving rise to three possible comparisons. Three of the trials isolated the effect of exhaled CO on smoking cessation rates resulting in the following odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI): 0.73 (0.38 to 1.39), 0.93 (0.62 to 1.41), and 1.18 (0.84 to 1.64). Combining CO measurement with genetic susceptibility gave an OR of 0.58 (0.29 to 1.19). Exhaled CO measurement and spirometry were used together in three trials, resulting in the following ORs (95% CI): 0.6 (0.25 to 1.46), 2.45 (0.73 to 8.25), and 3.50 (0.88 to 13.92). Spirometry results alone were used in one other trial with an OR of 1.21 (0.60 to 2.42).Two trials used other motivational feedback measures, with an OR of 0.80 (0.39 to 1.65) for genetic susceptibility to lung cancer alone, and 3.15 (1.06 to 9.31) for ultrasonography of carotid and femoral arteries performed in light smokers (average 10 to 12 cigarettes a day). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Due to the scarcity of evidence of sufficient quality, we can make no definitive statements about the effectiveness of biomedical risk assessment as an aid for smoking cessation. Current evidence of lower quality does not however support the hypothesis that biomedical risk assessment increases smoking cessation in comparison with standard treatment. Only two studies were similar enough in term of recruitment, setting, and intervention to allow pooling of data and meta-analysis.

Adolescent sexuality : an investigation into the relation between sexuality and self-concept /

The present study explored the connections among adolescents' sense of self, sexuality, and perceptions of risk. Such an exploration may help educators to further understand why adolescents engage in risk-taking behaviours such as unprotected sex. The study involved secondary analysis on the data collected from the Youth Lifestyle Choices - Community University Research Alliance 2000 (YLC - CURA) Youth Resilience Questionnaire (YRQ). Participants were 300 male and female students in Grades 9, 1 1 and OAC. Data analyses involved both descriptive and inferential statistics (correlational and multivariate analysis). Chi-square analyses were performed on the open-ended self-description question. Separate analyses were conducted on gender and age (grade levels). Correlational analyses revealed that adolescents with a more positive sense of self were more likely to perceive sexual involvement as a relatively high-risk behaviour. Specifically, results found that male adolescents were less likely than females to perceive sex to be risky. Results are discussed in relation to previous research in the area of selfcognitions and risk-taking sexual behaviour. Results are also discussed in terms of educational implications in that the current results may provide the beginnings of a framework for more holistic sexual education programs.

Valuing and encouraging critical reflection in pre-service teacher education

This qualitative study was designed to investigate aspects related to valuing and encouraging critical reflection in pre-service teacher education. An examination of the place and function of practicum logbooks as used at Covenant Canadian Reformed Teachers' College, a small private college which offers pre-service teacher education formed the core of the research. An analysis of the practicum logbooks written by five student teachers during three different practicum placements was performed at two levels. First, a content analysis served to identify general and specific categories within the practice teaching contextas a learning experience. Secondly, in-depth intuitive and thematic analyses of the entries which related specifically to reflection as a learning experience gave rise to critical questions. Throughout the process, the five participants formed an active and involved group of co-researchers, adding their voices to the narrative of the learning experience. Variables such as personality type, learning style and self-directedness added a dimension which deepened and emiched the study. The result of the study suggests that practicum logbooks form a valuable base for valuing and encouraging critical reflection in pre-service teacher education. The results also suggest that not all students appear to be equally capable of critical reflection. Recognizing that teacher education exists as a continuum appears to support the findings that in their journey along this continuum, student teachers not only move from reflection-on-action to reflection-in-action, but also from content to process to premise reflection. An awareness of contributing factors such as personality type, degree of risk-taking, preferred learning style and self-directedness on the part of teacher-educators will serve to create a climate of trust in which student teachers can safely develop critical reflection, using practicum logbooks as one possible medium.

Developmental and individual differences in novelty and error detection in 10-year-old children and young adults /

Event-related potentials were recorded from 10-year-old children and young adults in order to examine the developmental dififerences in two frontal lobe functions: detection of novel stimuli during an auditory novelty oddball task, and error detection during a visual flanker task. All participants showed a parietally-maximal P3 in response to auditory stimuli. In children, novel stimuli generated higher P3 amplitudes at the frontal site compared with target stimuli, whereas target stimuli generated higher P3 amplitudes at the parietal site compared with novel stimuli. Adults, however, had higher P3 amplitude to novel tones compared with target tones at each site. Children also had greater P3 amplitude at more parietal sites than adults during the novelty oddball and flanker tasks. Furthermore, children and adults did not show a significant reduction in P3 amplitude from the first to second novel stimulus presentation. No age differences were found with respect to P3 latency to novel and target stimuli. These findings suggest that the detection of novel and target stimuli is mature in 10-year-olds. Error trials typically elicit a negative ERP deflection (the ERN) with a frontal-central scalp distribution that may reflect response monitoring. There is also evidence of a positive ERP peak (the Pe) with a posterior scalp distribution which may reflect subjective recognition of a response. Both children and adults showed an ERN and Pe maximal at frontal-central sites. Children committed more errors, had smaller ERN across sites, and had a larger Pe at the parietal site than adults. This suggests that response monitoring is still immature in 10-year-olds whereas recognition of and emotional responses to errors may be similar in children and adults.

The relationship between early age of first sexual intercourse and vulnerability to depression among adolescents

Past empirical literature has provided conflicted results regarding the association between adolescent coitus and depression. While some studies conclude that those youth who are sexually active may be at risk for depression, others provide contrary results, or findings that are only representative of high-risk sexual behaviors such as intercourse without a condom. Thus, the results are unclear as to whether depression results directly from coitus, or if this relationship is spurious; that is, there may be biological, psychological, or sociological variables that may predict both depression and early sexual intercourse. Using the Add Health restricted dataset, I analyzed the depressive symptomatology of adolescents over a seven-year time period. The final sample (n=6,51O) was comprised of 49.35% male (n=3,213) and 50.65% female (n=3,297) participants. Results indicated that the relationship between earlier adolescent sexual intercourse and later depressive symptomatology is spurious. Although an earlier age of first coitus is predictive of later depressive symptomatology, both variables appear to be concomitant outcomes of the biopsychosocial process. Thus, while one may be able to use early coitus as a marker for subsequent depressive symptomatology, it does not occur because of early coitus. Furthermore, the reverse relationship was not found to be significant in this study. That is, higher levels of depressive symptomatology do not predict an earlier age of first sexual intercourse in adolescents.

Bullying in physical education : its prevalence & impact on the intention to continue secondary school physical education

The purpose of this study was to determine the prevalence of bullying in physical education and its influence on students' intention to participate in the class in the future. Additionally, the study researched the relationship between bullying and body image as well as bullying and physical competency in physical education. A survey was utilized that collected both quantitative and qualitative data about students' experiences in physical education. Two-hundred and thirty-four grade 10 students (144 female and 90 male) from 8 different secondary schools participated in the study. Data analyses were completed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 16.0. Results showed thaLapproximately 18.3% of respondents had .experienced physical bullying in physical education; 23.7% had experienced verbal bullying; and 20.4% experienced social bullying. Furthermore, those who experienced frequent bullying in physical education did not intend on taking the class in the future. The relationship between body image and bullying was not found to be significant. However, physical competence was found to significantly predict bullying in physical education. These results show how prevalent bullying is in physical education classes and how it negatively impacts future participation in the class.

Role of family eating practices on daily nutrient intakes, dietary patterns and measures of body composition in peri-adolescents

Although family eating practices (FEPs) playa role in the formation of eating practices in children, there is a lack of evidence regarding the role of FEPs on obesity (DB) risk. The purpose of this thesis was to assess the role of child, mother 'and father eating practices (CEPs; MEPS; FaEPs) on nutrient intakes, dietary patterns and body composition. Data were collected on approximately 2,400 peri-adolescents (s250 with complete covariate data). Dietary patterns were assessed using scores that reflected how closely participants followed DASH and Health Canada (HC) recommendations. In girls, poor CEPs, MEPs and FaEPs were associated with increased BMI and risk of overweight and poor dietary patterns according to DASH, and DASH and HC, respectively. In boys, poor CEPs and FaEPs were associated with increased monounsaturated and trans fat, and Vitamin C intakes, respectively. These findings suggest FEPs are associated with DB risk, particularly in girls.