Statistical methods for examining genetic influences of resistance to anti-epileptic drugs

It is generally accepted that genetics may be an important factor in explaining the variation between patients’ responses to certain drugs. However, identification and confirmation of the responsible genetic variants is proving to be a challenge in many cases. A number of difficulties that maybe encountered in pursuit of these variants, such as non-replication of a true effect, population structure and selection bias, can be mitigated or at least reduced by appropriate statistical methodology. Another major statistical challenge facing pharmacogenetics studies is trying to detect possibly small polygenic effects using large volumes of genetic data, while controlling the number of false positive signals. Here we review statistical design and analysis options available for investigations of genetic resistance to anti-epileptic drugs.

Ensemble yield simulations: crop and climate uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and genotypic adaptation to climate change

Estimates of the response of crops to climate change rarely quantify the uncertainty inherent in the simulation of both climate and crops. We present a crop simulation ensemble for a location in India, perturbing the response of both crop and climate under both baseline (12 720 simulations) and doubled-CO2 (171720 simulations) climates. Some simulations used parameter values representing genotypic adaptation to mean temperature change. Firstly, observed and simulated yields in the baseline climate were compared. Secondly, the response of yield to changes in mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. Thirdly, the relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes was examined. In simulations without genotypic adaptation, most of the uncertainty came from the climate model parameters. Comparison with the simulations with genotypic adaptation and with a previous study suggested that the relatively low crop parameter uncertainty derives from the observational constraints on the crop parameters used in this study. Fourthly, the simulations were used, together with an observed dataset and a simple analysis of crop cardinal temperatures and thermal time, to estimate the potential for adaptation using existing cultivars. The results suggest that the germplasm for complete adaptation of groundnut cultivation in western India to a doubled-CO2 environment may not exist. In conjunction with analyses of germplasm and local management

Adaptation of crops to climate change through genotypic responses to mean and extreme temperatures

The importance of temperature in the determination of the yield of an annual crop (groundnut; Arachis hypogaea L. in India) was assessed. Simulations from a regional climate model (PRECIS) were used with a crop model (GLAM) to examine crop growth under simulated current (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climates. Two processes were examined: the response of crop duration to mean temperature and the response of seed-set to extremes of temperature. The relative importance of, and interaction between, these two processes was examined for a number of genotypic characteristics, which were represented by using different values of crop model parameters derived from experiments. The impact of mean and extreme temperatures varied geographically, and depended upon the simulated genotypic properties. High temperature stress was not a major determinant of simulated yields in the current climate, but affected the mean and variability of yield under climate change in two regions which had contrasting statistics of daily maximum temperature. Changes in mean temperature had a similar impact on mean yield to that of high temperature stress in some locations and its effects were more widespread. Where the optimal temperature for development was exceeded, the resulting increase in duration in some simulations fully mitigated the negative impacts of extreme temperatures when sufficient water was available for the extended growing period. For some simulations the reduction in mean yield between the current and future climates was as large as 70%, indicating the importance of genotypic adaptation to changes in both means and extremes of temperature under climate change. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Research note: amendments to the model for predicting age at sexual maturity for growing pullets of layer strains following changes in photoperiod

A model was published by Lewis et al. (2002) to predict the mean age at first egg (AFE) for pullets of laying strains reared under non-limiting environmental conditions and exposed to a single change in photoperiod during the rearing stage. Subsequently, Lewis et al. (2003) reported the effects of two opposing changes in photoperiod, which showed that the first change appears to alter the pullet's physiological age so that it responds to the second change as though it had been given at an earlier age (if photoperiod was decreased), or later age (if photoperiod was increased) than the true chronological age. During the construction of a computer model based on these two publications, it became apparent that some of the components of the models needed adjustment. The amendments relate to (1) the standard deviation (S.D.) used for calculating the proportion of a young flock that has attained photosensitivity, (2) the equation for calculating the slope of the line relating AFE to age at transfer from one photoperiod to another, (3) the equation used for estimating the distribution of AFE as a function of the mean value, (4) the point of no return when pullets which have started spontaneous maturation in response to the current photoperiod can no longer respond to a late change in photoperiod and (5) the equations used for calculating the distribution of AFE when the trait is bimodal.

Effective livelihood adaptation to climate change disturbance: scale dimensions of practice in Mozambique

Natural resource-dependent societies in developing countries are facing increased pressures linked to global climate change. While social-ecological systems evolve to accommodate variability, there is growing evidence that changes in drought, storm and flood extremes are increasing exposure of currently vulnerable populations. In many countries in Africa, these pressures are compounded by disruption to institutions and variability in livelihoods and income. The interactions of both rapid and slow onset livelihood disturbance contribute to enduring poverty and slow processes of rural livelihood renewal across a complex landscape. We explore cross-scale dynamics in coping and adaptation response, drawing on qualitative data from a case study in Mozambique. The research characterises the engagements across multiple institutional scales and the types of agents involved, providing insight into emergent conditions for adaptation to climate change in rural economies, The analysis explores local responses to climate shocks, food security and poverty reduction, through informal institutions, forms of livelihood diversification and collective land-use systems that allow reciprocity, flexibility and the ability to buffer shocks. However, the analysis shows that agricultural initiatives have helped to facilitate effective livelihood renewal, through the reorganisation of social institutions and opportunities for communication, innovation and micro-credit. Although there are challenges to mainstreaming adaptation at different scales, this research shows why it is critical to assess how policies can protect conditions for emergence of livelihood transformation. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Selective toxicity of different granular insecticides to the peach-potato aphid, Myzus persicae (Homoptera: Aphididae) and its parasitoid, Aphidius matricariae (Hymenoptera: Aphidiidae) in two differentially resistant potato cultivars

Field studies were conducted in Pakistan to examine the effects and the interaction of two differentially resistant potato cultivars i.e. Cardinal and Desiree (one partially resistant and one susceptible to Myzus persicae (Sulzer), respectively) with different dosage rates of granular insecticides, at different time intervals after application in relation to percent kill of M. persicae and effects on the parasitoid Aphidius matricariae Haliday (i.e. the third trophic level) within the aphid mummies, percent parasitism and Thimet 10G (phorate) was found about 30% more effective in reducing aphid population than the Furadan 3G (carbofuran). The highest doses of each insecticide caused maximum aphid mortality, in general aphid mortality appeared dose dependent. Mostly all the higher and lower doses of the tested insecticides were about 10% more effective on Cardinal than on Desiree. The most significant result was the synergistic interaction at the lower doses with plant resistance, so that the same level of control was recorded with the second highest dose on Cardinal as with the highest dose on Desiree. Also the same level of control was observed at the lowest dose on Cardinal as with the second last lowest dose on Desiree. Furadan 3G was found least toxic to the A. matricariae in terms of percent parasitism, emergence of parasitoids and number of mature eggs in the emerging females. Furadan 3G gave 13, 15 and 6% higher figures, respectively from the parasitoid characteristics than Thimet 10G. The highest doses of both insecticides were clearly toxic to the parasitoid. In general, the effects on the parasitoid were dose dependent. The second highest dose of Thimet 10G, gave the maximum yield

Potential WTO challenges to the CAP

Since the early 1990s the EU's CAP has undergone considerable change with, first, a switch from market price support to direct payments in 1992 and, second, a further decoupling of support with the creation of the single payment scheme in 2003. Nonetheless, whether the current Doha Round of WTO trade negotiations is successfully completed or not, the CAP will come under renewed scrutiny, as a result either of negotiated reductions in support or of litigation through the WTO's dispute settlement process. This article discusses CAP market price and income support in the context of these likely WTO constraints.

Adaptation to climate change and variability: farmer responses to intra-seasonal precipitation trends in South Africa

We describe the nature of recent (50 year) rainfall variability in the summer rainfall zone, South Africa, and how variability is recognised and responded to on the ground by farmers. Using daily rainfall data and self-organising mapping (SOM) we identify 12 internally homogeneous rainfall regions displaying differing parameters of precipitation change. Three regions, characterised by changing onset and timing of rains, rainfall frequencies and intensities, in Limpopo, North West and KwaZulu Natal provinces, were selected to investigate farmer perceptions of, and responses to, rainfall parameter changes. Village and household level analyses demonstrate that the trends and variabilities in precipitation parameters differentiated by the SOM analysis were clearly recognised by people living in the areas in which they occurred. A range of specific coping and adaptation strategies are employed by farmers to respond to climate shifts, some generic across regions and some facilitated by specific local factors. The study has begun to understand the complexity of coping and adaptation, and the factors that influence the decisions that are taken.

Susceptibility to the anticoagulants bromadiolone and coumatetralyl in wild Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus) from the UK and Germany

A new blood clotting response test was used to determine the susceptibility, to coumatetralyl and bromadiolone, of laboratory strains of Norway rat from Germany and the UK (Hampshire), and wild rats trapped on farms in Wales (UK) and Westphalia (Germany). Resistance factors were calculated in relation to the CD strain of Norway rat. An outbred strain of wild rats, raised from rats trapped in Germany, was found to be more susceptible to coumatetralyl by a factor of 0.5-0.6 compared to the CD strain. Homozygous and heterozygous animals of a strain of resistant rats from Westphalia were cross-resistant to coumatetralyl and bromadiolone, with a higher resistance factor for bromadiolone than that found in both UK strains. Our results show that the degree of altered susceptibility and resistance varies between strains of wild rat and between resistance foci. Some wild rat strains may be more susceptible than laboratory rat strains. Even in a well-established resistance area, it may be difficult to find infestations with resistance high enough to suspect control problems with bromadiolone, even after decades of use of this compound.

A method for evaluating alternative landscape management scenarios in relation to the biodiversity conservation of habitats

A perennial issue for land use policy is the evaluation of landscape biodiversity and the associated cost effectiveness of any biodiversity conservation policy actions. Based on the CUA methodology as applied to species conservation, this paper develops a methodology for evaluating the impact on habitats of alternative landscape management scenarios. The method incorporates three dimensions of habitats, quantity change, quality change and relative scarcity, and is illustrated in relation to the alternative landscape management scenarios for the Scottish Highlands (Cairngorms) study area of the BioScene project. The results demonstrate the value of the method for evaluating biodiversity conservation policies through their impact on habitats.

Changes in oestrogen receptor-alpha and -beta during progression to acquired resistance to tamoxifen and fulvestrant (Faslodex, ICI 182,780) in MCF7 human breast cancer cells

Cell culture models of antioestrogen resistance often involve applying selective pressures of oestrogen deprivation simultaneously with addition of tamoxifen or fulvestrant (Faslodex, ICI 182,780) which makes it difficult to distinguish events in development of antioestrogen resistance from those in loss of response to oestrogen or other components. We describe here time courses of loss of antioestrogen response using either oestrogen-maintained or oestrogen-deprived MCF7 cells in which the only alteration to the culture medium was addition of 10(-6) M tamoxifen or 10(-7) M fulvestrant. In both oestrogen-maintained and oestrogen-deprived models, loss of growth response to tamoxifen was not associated with loss of response to fulvestrant. However, loss of growth response to fulvestrant was associated in both models with concomitant loss of growth response to tamoxifen. Measurement of oestrogen receptor alpha (ER alpha) and oestrogen receptor beta (ER beta) mRNA by real-time RT-PCR together with ER alpha and ER beta protein by Western immunoblotting revealed substantial changes to ER alpha levels but very little alteration to ER beta levels following development of antioestrogen resistance. In oestrogen-maintained cells, tamoxifen resistance was associated with raised levels of ERa mRNA/protein. However by contrast, in oestrogen-deprived MCF7 cells, where oestrogen deprivation alone had already resulted in increased levels of ERa mRNA/protein, long-term tamoxifen exposure now reduced ER alpha levels. Whilst long-term exposure to fulvestrant reduced ERa. mRNA/protein levels in the oestrogen-maintained cells to a level barely detectable by Western immunoblotting and non-functional in inducing gene expression (ERE-LUC reporter or pS2), in oestrogen-deprived cells the reduction was much less substantial and these cells retained an oestrogen-induction of both the ERE-LUC reporter gene and the endogenous pS2 gene which could still be inhibited by antioestrogen. This demonstrates that whilst ER alpha can be abrogated by fulvestrant and increased by tamoxifen in some circumstances, this does not always hold true and mechanisms other than alteration to ER must be involved in the development of antioestrogen resistant growth. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Antixenosis to the peach/potato aphid, myzus persicae (SuIzer) in potato cultivars

Field studies were conducted to determine the antixenotic resistance against the peach-potato aphid, Myzus persicae (Sulzer) in different potato cultivars i.e. Cardinal, Ultimus and Desiree. These cultivars were studied in the paired tests as Cardinal vs. Desiree and Cardinal vs. Desiree for antixenosis (systemic insecticide-based test). In Desiree vs. Ultimus, no significant difference was found for the preference of M. persicae, while in case of Cardinal vs. Desiree, there was a significant preference for Desiree. Cardinal clearly showed antixenosis to M. persicae.

Genotype and temperature influence pea aphid resistance to a fungal entomopathogen

The influence of temperature on life history traits of four Acyrthosiphon pisum clones was investigated, together with their resistance to one genotype of the fungal entomopathogen Erynia neoaphidis . There was no difference among aphid clones in development rate, but they did differ in fecundity. Both development rate and fecundity were influenced by temperature, but all clones showed similar responses to the changes in temperature (i.e. the interaction term was nonsignificant). However, there were significant differences among clones in susceptibility to the pathogen, and this was influenced by temperature. Furthermore, the clones differed in how temperature influenced susceptibility, with susceptibility rankings changing with temperature. Two clones showed changes in susceptibility which mirrored changes in the in vitro vegetative growth rate of E. neoaphidis at different temperatures, whereas two other clones differed considerably from this expected response. Such interactions between genotype and temperature may help maintain heritable variation in aphid susceptibility to fungal pathogen attack and have implications for our understanding of disease dynamics in natural populations. This study also highlights the difficulties of drawing conclusions about the efficacy of a biological control agent when only a restricted range of pest genotypes or environmental conditions are considered.

The contribution of building research to the independence and quality of life of older people

Many nations are experiencing rapid rises in the life expectancy of their citizens. The implications of this major demographic shift are considerable offering opportunities as well as challenges to reconsider how people should spend their later years. A key task is enhancing the quality of life of older people through enabling them to continue to live independently even though illness, accident or frailty may have severely reduced their physical and sensory abilities and, possibly, mental health. Yet the needs of older people and disabled people have been largely ignored in the design of everyday consumer products, the home, transport systems and the built environment in general. Whilst the need for designers, engineers and technologists to provide products, environments and systems which are inclusive of all members of society is widely accepted, there is little understanding of how this can be achieved. In 1998 the UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council established its EQUAL Initiative. This has encouraged design, engineering and technology researchers in universities to join with their colleagues from the social, medical and health sciences to investigate a wide range of issues experienced by older and disabled people and to propose solutions. Their research, which directly involves older and disabled people and, for example, social housing providers, social services departments, charities, engineering and architectural consultants, and transport firms, has been extremely successful. In a very short time it has influenced government policy on housing, long-term care, and building standards, and findings have been taken up by architects, designers, health-care professionals and bodies which represent older and disabled people.

Flavanol monomer-induced changes to the human faecal microflora

We have investigated the bacterial-dependent metabolism of (-)-epicatechin and (+)-catechin using a pH-controlled, stirred, batch-culture fermentation system reflective of the distal region of the human large intestine. Incubation of (-)-epicatechin or (+)-catechin (150mg/l or 1000mg/l) with faecal bacteria, led to the generation of 5-(3,4'-dihydroxyphenyl)-gamma-valerolactone, 5-phenyl-gamma-valerolactone and phenylpropionic acid. However, the formation of these metabolites from (+)-catechin required its initial conversion to (+)-epicatechin. The metabolism of both flavanols occurred in the presence of favourable carbon sources, notably sucrose and the prebiotic fructo-oligosaccharides, indicating that bacterial utilisation of flavanols also occurs when preferential energy sources are available. (+)-Catechin incubation affected the growth of select microflora, resulting in a statistically significant increase in the growth of the Clostridium coccoides-Eubacterium rectale group, Bifidobacterium spp. and Escherichia coli, as well as a significant inhibitory effect on the growth of the C. histolyticum group. In contrast, the effect of (-)-epicatechin was less profound, only significantly increasing the growth of the C. coccoides-Eubacterium rectale group. These potential prebiotic effects for both (+)-catechin and (-)-epicatechin were most notable at the lower concentration of 150 mg/l. As both (-)-epicatechin and (+)-catechin were converted to the same metabolites, the more dramatic change in the growth of distinct microfloral populations produced by (+)-catechin incubation may be linked to the bacterial conversion of (+)-catechin to (+)-epicatechin. Together these data suggest that the consumption of flavanol-rich foods may support gut health through their ability to exert prebiotic actions.