Using artificial neural networks to generate trading signals for crude oil, copper and gold futures

In this thesis, a feed-forward, back-propagating Artificial Neural Network using the gradient descent algorithm is developed to forecast the directional movement of daily returns for WTI, gold and copper futures. Out-of-sample back-test results vary, with some predictive abilities for copper futures but none for either WTI or gold. The best statistically significant hit rate achieved was 57% for copper with an absolute return Sharpe Ratio of 1.25 and a benchmarked Information Ratio of 2.11.

A technical investigation of an oil painting on copper support, including a study on consolidants for treatment

Paper submitted to e-conservation Journal: Maria Leonor Oliveira, Leslie Carlyle, Sara Fragoso, Isabel Pombo Cardoso and João Coroado, “Investigations into paint delamination and consolidation of an oil painting on copper support”.

MANGROVE BARK: A RENEWABLE RESIN SOURCE FOR WOOD ADHESIVES

From four solutions tested to extract tannins from mangrove bark for wood adhesives, hot water is recommended. Hot water extracted 21.4% of formaldehyde-hydrochloric acid reactive polyphenols on oven-dry bark basis.

Assessment of NDVI, land surface temperature and precipitation anomalies for drought monitoring in Bayankhongor province, Mongolia

During the last decade Mongolia’s region was characterized by a rapid increase of both severity and frequency of drought events, leading to pasture reduction. Drought monitoring and assessment plays an important role in the region’s early warning systems as a way to mitigate the negative impacts in social, economic and environmental sectors. Nowadays it is possible to access information related to the hydrologic cycle through remote sensing, which provides a continuous monitoring of variables over very large areas where the weather stations are sparse. The present thesis aimed to explore the possibility of using NDVI as a potential drought indicator by studying anomaly patterns and correlations with other two climate variables, LST and precipitation. The study covered the growing season (March to September) of a fifteen year period, between 2000 and 2014, for Bayankhongor province in southwest Mongolia. The datasets used were MODIS NDVI, LST and TRMM Precipitation, which processing and analysis was supported by QGIS software and Python programming language. Monthly anomaly correlations between NDVI-LST and NDVI-Precipitation were generated as well as temporal correlations for the growing season for known drought years (2001, 2002 and 2009). The results show that the three variables follow a seasonal pattern expected for a northern hemisphere region, with occurrence of the rainy season in the summer months. The values of both NDVI and precipitation are remarkably low while LST values are high, which is explained by the region’s climate and ecosystems. The NDVI average, generally, reached higher values with high precipitation values and low LST values. The year of 2001 was the driest year of the time-series, while 2003 was the wet year with healthier vegetation. Monthly correlations registered weak results with low significance, with exception of NDVI-LST and NDVI-Precipitation correlations for June, July and August of 2002. The temporal correlations for the growing season also revealed weak results. The overall relationship between the variables anomalies showed weak correlation results with low significance, which suggests that an accurate answer for predicting drought using the relation between NDVI, LST and Precipitation cannot be given. Additional research should take place in order to achieve more conclusive results. However the NDVI anomaly images show that NDVI is a suitable drought index for Bayankhongor province.

Multifunctional converter to interface renewable energy sources and electric vehicles with the power grid in smart grids context

This paper proposes a multifunctional converter to interface renewable energy sources (e.g., solar photovoltaic panels) and electric vehicles (EVs) with the power grid in smart grids context. This multifunctional converter allows deliver energy from the solar photovoltaic panels to an EV or to the power grid, and exchange energy in bidirectional mode between the EV and the power grid. Using this multifunctional converter are not required multiple conversion stages, as occurs with the traditional solutions, where are necessary two power converters to integrate the solar photovoltaic system in the power grid and also two power converters to integrate an off-board EV battery charger in the power grid (dc-dc and dc-ac power converters in both cases). Taking into account that the energy provided (or delivered) from the power grid in each moment is function of the EV operation mode and also of the energy produced from the solar photovoltaic system, it is possible to define operation strategies and control algorithms in order to increase the energy efficiency of the global system and to improve the power quality of the electrical system. The proposed multifunctional converter allows the operation in four distinct cases: (a) Transfer of energy from the solar photovoltaic system to the power grid; (b) Transfer of energy from the solar photovoltaic system and from the EV to the power grid; (c) Transfer of energy from the solar photovoltaic system to the EV or to the power grid; (d) Transfer of energy between the EV and the power grid. Along the paper are described the system architecture and the control algorithms, and are also presented some computational simulation results for the four aforementioned cases. It is also presented a comparative analysis between the traditional and the proposed solution in terms of operation efficiency and estimated cost of implementation.

Surface morphology of some Amphistomes (Trematoda) of Amazonian Fishes and the description of a new genus and species

The surface morphology of specimens from ten different genera of amphistomes (Trematoda, Cladorchiidae) from Amazonian fishes is described and illustrated. The importance of body shape as a generic character is considered. Morphological changes as a result of growth are shown and explained in relation to the species Dadaytrema oxycephala. Additionally, Doradamphistoma bacuensis gen. et sp. n. is described from the catfish, Megalodoras irwini Eigenmann, 1925.The new genus and species is elongate and flattened, with external pharyngeal pouches, an esophageal bulb, a spherical cirrus sac, a post-bifurcal genital pore and pre-equatorial testes.

Annoyance and welfare costs from the presence of renewable energy power plants: an application of the contingent valuation method

Sustainability is frequently defined by its three pillars: economically viable, socially equitable, and environmentally bearable. Consequently the evaluation of the sustainability of any decision, public or private, requires information on these three dimensions. This paper focuses on social sustainability. In the context of renewable energy sources, the examination of social sustainability requires the analysis of not only the efficiency but also the equity of its welfare impacts. The present paper proposes and applies a methodology to generate the information necessary to do a proper welfare analysis of the social sustainability of renewable energy production facilities. This information is key both for an equity and an efficiency analysis. The analysis focuses on the case of investments in renewable energy electricity production facilities, where the impacts on local residents’ welfare are often significantly different than the welfare effects on the general population. We apply the contingent valuation method to selected facilities across the different renewable energy power plants located in Portugal and conclude that local residents acknowledge differently the damage sustained by the type, location and operation of the plants. The results from these case studies attest to the need of acknowledging and quantifying the negative impacts on local communities when assessing the economic viability, social equity and environmental impact of renewable energy projects.

Application of near surface mounted (NSM) strengthening technique to traditional timber frame walls

Timber frame buildings are well known as an efficient seismic resistant structure popular all over the world not only due to their seismic performance, but also to their low cost and the strength they offer. These constructions still exist today and it is important to be able to preserve them, so a better knowledge on their behaviour is sought. Furthermore, historic technologies could be used even in modern constructions to build seismic resistant buildings using more natural materials with lesser costs. A great rehabilitation effort is being carried out on this type of buildings, as their neglect has led to decay or their change in use and alterations to the structure has led to the need to retrofit such buildings; only recently studies on their behaviour have become available and only a few of them address the issue of possible strengthening techniques for this kind of walls. In this scope, an innovative retrofitting technique (near surface mounted steel flat bars) is proposed and validated on traditional timber frame walls based on an extensive experimental program. The results of the static cyclic tests on distinct wall typologies retrofitted with the NSM technique are herein presented and discussed in detail. The main features on deformation, lateral stiffness, lateral resistance and seismic performance indexes are analysed

Deploying public surface transit to forward messages in DTN

Delay Tolerant Network (DTN) is a communication architecture enabling connectivity in a topology with unregular end-to-end network connection. DTN enables communication in environments with cross-connectivity, large delays and delivery time variations, and a high error rate. DTN can be used in vehicular networks where public transport get involved. This research aims to analyze the role of public transit as a DTN routing infrastructure. The impact of using public transit as a relay router is investigated by referencing the network performance, defined by its delivery ratio, average delay and overhead. The results show that public transit can be used as a backbone for DTN in an urban scenario using existing protocols. This opens insights for future researches on routing algorithm and protocol design.

Evolution of the surface plasmon resonance of Au:TiO2 nanocomposite thin films with annealing temperature

This paper reports on the changes in the structural and morphological features occurring in a particular type of nanocomposite thin-film system, composed of Au nanoparticles (NPs) dispersed in a host TiO2 dielectric matrix. The structural and morphological changes, promoted by in-vacuum annealing experiments of the as-deposited thin films at different temperatures (ranging from 200 to 800 C), resulted in a well-known localized surface plasmon resonance (LSPR) phenomenon, which gave rise to a set of different optical responses that can be tailored for a wide number of applications, including those for optical-based sensors. The results show that the annealing experiments enabled a gradual increase of the mean grain size of the Au NPs (from 2 to 23 nm), and changes in their distributions and separations within the dielectric matrix. For higher annealing temperatures of the as-deposited films, a broad size distribution of Au NPs was found (sizes up to 100 nm). The structural conditions necessary to produce LSPR activity were found to occur for annealing experiments above 300 C, which corresponded to the crystallization of the gold NPs, with an average size strongly dependent on the annealing temperature itself. The main factor for the promotion of LSPR was the growth of gold NPs and their redistribution throughout the host matrix. On the other hand, the host matrix started to crystallize at an annealing temperature of about 500 C, which is an important parameter to explain the shift of the LSPR peak position to longer wavelengths, i.e. a red-shift.

Renewable energy system for an isolated micro grid

This paper presents the development of the power electronics needed for the interaction between the electrical generator of a wind turbine and an isolated ac micro grid. In this system there are basically two types of receptors for the energy produced by the wind turbine, which are the loads connected to the isolated micro grid and the batteries used to store energy. There are basically two states in which the system will work. One of the states is when there is enough wind power to supply the loads and the extra energy is used to charge the batteries. The other state is when there is low wind power and the batteries have to compensate the lack of power, so that the isolated micro grid has enough power to supply at least the priority loads. In this paper are presented the hardware and the control algorithm for the developed system. The topology was previously tested in computer simulations, using the software PSIM 9.0, and then validated with the implementation of a laboratory prototype.

Strategic planning of electricity systems: Integrating renewable energies

Tese de Doutoramento - Programa Doutoral em Engenharia Industrial e Sistemas (PDEIS)

A cost study of common surface finish systems for steel structures

This paper presents part of a study aimed at finding a suitable, yet cost-effective, surface finish for a steel structure subject to the car washing environment and corrosive chemicals. The initial, life cycle and average equivalent annual (AEAC) costs for surface finishing methods were calculated for a steel structure using the LCCC algorithm developed by American Galvanizers Association (AGA). The cost study consisted of 45 common surface finish systems including: hot-dip galvanization (HDG), metallization, acrylic, alkyd and epoxy as well as duplex coatings such as epoxy zinc and inorganic zinc (IOZ). The results show that initial, life cycle and AEAC costs for hot dip galvanization are the lowest among all the other methods, followed by coal tar epoxy painting. The annual average cost of HDG for this structure was estimated about €0.22/m2, while the other cost-effective alternatives were: IOZ, polyurea, epoxy waterborne and IOZ/epoxy duplex coating.

Surface plasmon resonance-coupled photoluminescence and resistive switching behavior of pulsed laser-deposited Ag:SiC nanocermet thin films

In this study, Ag:SiC nanocermets were prepared via rapid thermal annealing (RTA) of pulsed laser-deposited SiC/Ag/SiC trilayers grown on Si substrate. Atomic force microscope images show that silver nanoparticles (Ag NPs) are formed after RTA, and the size of NPs increases with increasing Ag deposition time (t Ag). Sharp dip observed in the reflectance spectra confirmed the existence of Ag surface plasmons (SPs). The infrared transmission spectra showed an intense and broad absorption band around 780–800 cm−1 that can be assigned to Si-C stretching vibration mode. Influence of t Ag on the spectral characteristics of SP-enhanced photoluminescence (PL) and electrical properties of silicon carbide (SiC) films has been investigated. The maximum PL enhancement by 5.5 times for Ag:SiC nanocermets is achieved when t Ag ≈ 50 s. This enhancement is due to the strong resonant coupling between SiC and the SP oscillations of the Ag NPs. Presence of Ag NPs in SiC also induces a forming-free resistive switching with switching ratio of 2 × 10−2. The analysis of I–V curves demonstrates that the trap-controlled space-charge-limited conduction with filamentary model is the governing mechanism for the resistive switching in nanocerment thin films.

Biochemical and physical surface functionalization of polycaprolactone as a key mediator of osteogenic differentiation and vascularized tissue morphogenesis

Tese de Doutoramento em Engenharia de Tecidos, Medicina Regenerativa e Células Estaminais.