Ablative Pyrolysis of Beetle-killed Trees

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Reliability measures for local nodes assessment in classification trees

Most of the modem developments with classification trees are aimed at improving their predictive capacity. This article considers a curiously neglected aspect of classification trees, namely the reliability of predictions that come from a given classification tree. In the sense that a node of a tree represents a point in the predictor space in the limit, the aim of this article is the development of localized assessment of the reliability of prediction rules. A classification tree may be used either to provide a probability forecast, where for each node the membership probabilities for each class constitutes the prediction, or a true classification where each new observation is predictively assigned to a unique class. Correspondingly, two types of reliability measure will be derived-namely, prediction reliability and classification reliability. We use bootstrapping methods as the main tool to construct these measures. We also provide a suite of graphical displays by which they may be easily appreciated. In addition to providing some estimate of the reliability of specific forecasts of each type, these measures can also be used to guide future data collection to improve the effectiveness of the tree model. The motivating example we give has a binary response, namely the presence or absence of a species of Eucalypt, Eucalyptus cloeziana, at a given sampling location in response to a suite of environmental covariates, (although the methods are not restricted to binary response data).

High nuclear genetic diversity, high levels of outcrossing and low differentiation among remnant populations of Quercus petraea at the margin of its range in Ireland

Background and Aims Quercus petraea colonized Ireland after the last glaciation from refugia on mainland Europe. Deforestation. however. beginning in Neolithic times, has resulted in small, scattered forest fragments, now covering less than 12 000 ha. Methods Plastid (three fragments) and microsatellite variation (13 loci) were characterized in seven Irish populations sampled along a north-south gradient. Using Bayesian approaches and Wright's F-statistics, the effects of colonization and fragmentation on the genetic structure and mating patterns of extant oak populations were investigated. Key-Results All Populations possessed cytotypes common to the Iberian Peninsula. Despite the distance from the refugial core and the extensive deforestation in Ireland, nuclear genetic variation was high and comparable to mainland Europe. Low population differentiation was observed within Ireland and populations showed no evidence for isolation by distance. As expected of a marker with an effective Population size of one-quarter relative to the nuclear genome, plastid variation indicated higher differentiation. Individual inbreeding coefficients indicated high levels of outcrossing. Conclusions Consistent with a large effective Population size in the historical migrant gene pool and/or with high gene flow among populations, high within-population diversity and low population differentiation was observred within Ireland. It is proposed that native Q. petraea populations in Ireland share a common phylogeographic history and that the present genetic structure does not reflect founder effects. (C) 2004 Annals of Botany Company.

Cambial meristem dormancy in trees involves extensive remodelling of the transcriptome

The establishment of the dormant state in meristems involves considerable physiological and metabolic alterations necessary for surviving unfavourable growth conditions. However, a global molecular analysis of dormancy in meristems has been hampered by the difficulty in isolating meristem cells. We used cryosectioning to isolate purified cambial meristem cells from the woody plant Populus tremula during active growth and dormancy. These samples were used to generate meristem-specific cDNA libraries and for cDNA microarray experiments to define the global transcriptional changes underlying cambial dormancy. The results indicate a significant reduction in the complexity of the cambial transcriptome in the dormant state. Although cell division is terminated in the dormant cambium, the cell cycle machinery appears to be maintained in a skeletal state as suggested by the continued presence of transcripts for several cell cycle regulators. The downregulation of PttPIN1 and PttPIN2 transcripts explains the reduced basipetal polar auxin transport during dormancy. The induction of a member of the SINA family of ubiquitin ligases implicated in auxin signalling indicates a potential mechanism for modulation of auxin sensitivity during cambial dormancy. The metabolic alterations during dormancy are mirrored in the induction of genes involved in starch breakdown and the glyoxysomal cycle. Interestingly, the induction of RGA1 like gene suggests modification of gibberellin signalling in cambial dormancy. The induction of genes such as poplar orthologues of FIE and HAP2 indicates a potential role for these global regulators of transcription in orchestrating extensive changes in gene expression during dormancy.

The status of hollow-bearing trees required for the conservation of arboreal marsupials in the dry sclerophyll forests of south-east Queensland, Australia

At 38 sites in the dry sclerophyll forests of south-east Queensland, Australia, hollow-bearing trees were studied to determine the effects of past forestry practices on their density, size and spatial distribution. The density of hollow-bearing trees was reduced at sites that had been altered by poisoning and ringbarking of unmerchantable trees. This was especially the case for living hollow-bearing trees that were now at densities too low to support the full range of arboreal marsupials. Although there are presently enough hollow-bearing stags (i.e., dead hollow-bearing trees) to provide additional denning and nesting opportunities, the standing life of these hollow-bearing stags is lower than the living counterparts which means denning and nesting sites may be limited in the near future. The mean diameter at breast height (DBH) of hollow-bearing stags was significantly less than that of living hollow-bearing trees. This indicated that many large hollow-bearing stags may have a shorter standing life than smaller hollow-bearing stags. Hollow-bearing trees appear to be randomly distributed throughout the forest in both silviculturally treated and untreated areas. This finding is at odds with the suggestion by some forest managers that hollow-bearing trees should have a clumped distribution in dry sclerophyll forests of south-east Queensland.

Optimal sampling strategy for estimation of spatial genetic structure in tree populations

Fine-scale spatial genetic structure (SGS) in natural tree populations is largely a result of restricted pollen and seed dispersal. Understanding the link between limitations to dispersal in gene vectors and SGS is of key interest to biologists and the availability of highly variable molecular markers has facilitated fine-scale analysis of populations. However, estimation of SGS may depend strongly on the type of genetic marker and sampling strategy (of both loci and individuals). To explore sampling limits, we created a model population with simulated distributions of dominant and codominant alleles, resulting from natural regeneration with restricted gene flow. SGS estimates from subsamples (simulating collection and analysis with amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and microsatellite markers) were correlated with the 'real' estimate (from the full model population). For both marker types, sampling ranges were evident, with lower limits below which estimation was poorly correlated and upper limits above which sampling became inefficient. Lower limits (correlation of 0.9) were 100 individuals, 10 loci for microsatellites and 150 individuals, 100 loci for AFLPs. Upper limits were 200 individuals, five loci for microsatellites and 200 individuals, 100 loci for AFLPs. The limits indicated by simulation were compared with data sets from real species. Instances where sampling effort had been either insufficient or inefficient were identified. The model results should form practical boundaries for studies aiming to detect SGS. However, greater sample sizes will be required in cases where SGS is weaker than for our simulated population, for example, in species with effective pollen/seed dispersal mechanisms.

Enhanced dust deposition by trees recently established on degraded rangeland

Results from 2 years of dust deposition monitoring in a 10-year-old Pinus nigra plantation near Lake Tekapo are presented. They show that recently established plantations significantly enhance dust deposition rates. This could reverse a cycle of soil loss and enhance vertical accretion of soil, which would provide more options for future land use. However, observations indicate that even under such enhanced conditions for soil formation, it would take several thousand years to replace the soil lost to erosion since European farming practices were first introduced to the northern section of the Mackenzie Basin.

Chloroplast and total genomic diversity in the endemic Costa Rican tree Lonchocarpus costaricensis (J.D. Smith) Pittier (Papilionaceae).

In Mesoamerica, tropical dry forest is a highly threatened habitat, and species endemic to this environment are under extreme pressure. The tree species, Lonchocarpus costaricensis is endemic to the dry northwest of Costa Rica and southwest Nicaragua. It is a locally important species but, as land has been cleared for agriculture, populations have experienced considerable reduction and fragmentation. To assess current levels and distribution of genetic diversity in the species, a combination of chloroplast-specific (cpDNA) and whole genome DNA markers (amplified fragment length polymorphism, AFLP) were used to fingerprint 121 individual trees in 6 populations. Two cpDNA haplotypes were identified, distributed among populations such that populations at the extremes of the distribution showed lowest diversity. A large number (487) of AFLP markers were obtained and indicated that diversity levels were highest in the two coastal populations (Cobano, Matapalo, H = 0.23, 0.28 respectively). Population differentiation was low overall, F-ST = 0.12, although Matapalo was strongly differentiated from all other populations (F-ST = 0.16-0.22), apart from Cobano (F., = 0.11). Spatial genetic structure was present in both datasets at different scales: cpDNA was structured at a range-wide distribution scale, whilst AFLP data revealed genetic neighbourhoods on a population scale. In general, the habitat degradation of recent times appears not to have yet impacted diversity levels in mature populations. However, although no data on seed or saplings were collected, it seems likely that reproductive mechanisms in the species will have been affected by land clearance. It is recommended that efforts should be made to conserve the extant genetic resource base and further research undertaken to investigate diversity levels in the progeny generation.

Application and evaluation of classification trees for screening unwanted plants

Risk assessment systems for introduced species are being developed and applied globally, but methods for rigorously evaluating them are still in their infancy. We explore classification and regression tree models as an alternative to the current Australian Weed Risk Assessment system, and demonstrate how the performance of screening tests for unwanted alien species may be quantitatively compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The optimal classification tree model for predicting weediness included just four out of a possible 44 attributes of introduced plants examined, namely: (i) intentional human dispersal of propagules; (ii) evidence of naturalization beyond native range; (iii) evidence of being a weed elsewhere; and (iv) a high level of domestication. Intentional human dispersal of propagules in combination with evidence of naturalization beyond a plants native range led to the strongest prediction of weediness. A high level of domestication in combination with no evidence of naturalization mitigated the likelihood of an introduced plant becoming a weed resulting from intentional human dispersal of propagules. Unlikely intentional human dispersal of propagules combined with no evidence of being a weed elsewhere led to the lowest predicted probability of weediness. The failure to include intrinsic plant attributes in the model suggests that either these attributes are not useful general predictors of weediness, or data and analysis were inadequate to elucidate the underlying relationship(s). This concurs with the historical pessimism that we will ever be able to accurately predict invasive plants. Given the apparent importance of propagule pressure (the number of individuals of an species released), future attempts at evaluating screening model performance for identifying unwanted plants need to account for propagule pressure when collating and/or analysing datasets. The classification tree had a cross-validated sensitivity of 93.6% and specificity of 36.7%. Based on the area under the ROC curve, the performance of the classification tree in correctly classifying plants as weeds or non-weeds was slightly inferior (Area under ROC curve = 0.83 +/- 0.021 (+/- SE)) to that of the current risk assessment system in use (Area under ROC curve = 0.89 +/- 0.018 (+/- SE)), although requires many fewer questions to be answered.

Applying network analysis to the conservation of habitat trees in urban environments: a case study from Brisbane, Australia

In Australia more than 300 vertebrates, including 43 insectivorous bat species, depend on hollows in habitat trees for shelter, with many species using a network of multiple trees as roosts, We used roost-switching data on white-striped freetail bats (Tadarida australis; Microchiroptera: Molossidae) to construct a network representation of day roosts in suburban Brisbane, Australia. Bats were caught from a communal roost tree with a roosting group of several hundred individuals and released with transmitters. Each roost used by the bats represented a node in the network, and the movements of bats between roosts formed the links between nodes. Despite differences in gender and reproductive stages, the bats exhibited the same behavior throughout three radiotelemetry periods and over 500 bat days of radio tracking: each roosted in separate roosts, switched roosts very infrequently, and associated with other bats only at the communal roost This network resembled a scale-free network in which the distribution of the number of links from each roost followed a power law. Despite being spread over a large geographic area (> 200 km(2)), each roost was connected to others by less than three links. One roost (the hub or communal roost) defined the architecture of the network because it had the most links. That the network showed scale-free properties has profound implications for the management of the habitat trees of this roosting group. Scale-free networks provide high tolerance against stochastic events such as random roost removals but are susceptible to the selective removal of hub nodes. Network analysis is a useful tool for understanding the structural organization of habitat tree usage and allows the informed judgment of the relative importance of individual trees and hence the derivation of appropriate management decisions, Conservation planners and managers should emphasize the differential importance of habitat trees and think of them as being analogous to vital service centers in human societies.

Reduced genetic diversity and significant genetic differentiation after translocation: Comparison of the remnant and translocated populations of bridled nailtail wallabies (Onychogalea fraenata)

Loss of genetic diversity and increased population differentiation from source populations are common problems associated with translocation programmes established from captive-bred stock or a small number of founders. The bridled nailtail wallaby is one of the most endangered macropods in Australia, having been reduced to a single remnant population in the last 100 years. A translocated population of bridled nailtail wallabies was established using animals sourced directly from the remnant population (wild-released) as well as the progeny of animals collected for a captive breeding programme (captive-bred). The aims of this study were to compare genetic diversity among released animals and their wild-born progeny to genetic diversity observed in the remnant population, and to monitor changes in genetic diversity over time as more animals were released into the population. Heterozygosity did not differ between the translocated and remnant population; however, allelic diversity was significantly reduced across all released animals and their wild-born progeny. Animals bred in captivity and their wild-born progeny were also significantly differentiated from the source population after just four generations. Wild-released animals, however, were representative of the source population and several alleles were unique to this group. Both heterozygosity and allelic diversity among translocated animals decreased over time with the additional release of captive-bred animals, as no new genetic stock was added to the population. Captive breeding programmes can provide large numbers of animals for release, but this study highlights the importance of sourcing animals directly from remnant populations in order to maintain genetic diversity and minimise genetic drift.

Modelling pre-clearing vegetation distribution using GIS-integrated statistical, ecological and data models: A case study from the wet tropics of Northeastern Australia

Traditional vegetation mapping methods use high cost, labour-intensive aerial photography interpretation. This approach can be subjective and is limited by factors such as the extent of remnant vegetation, and the differing scale and quality of aerial photography over time. An alternative approach is proposed which integrates a data model, a statistical model and an ecological model using sophisticated Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques and rule-based systems to support fine-scale vegetation community modelling. This approach is based on a more realistic representation of vegetation patterns with transitional gradients from one vegetation community to another. Arbitrary, though often unrealistic, sharp boundaries can be imposed on the model by the application of statistical methods. This GIS-integrated multivariate approach is applied to the problem of vegetation mapping in the complex vegetation communities of the Innisfail Lowlands in the Wet Tropics bioregion of Northeastern Australia. The paper presents the full cycle of this vegetation modelling approach including sampling sites, variable selection, model selection, model implementation, internal model assessment, model prediction assessments, models integration of discrete vegetation community models to generate a composite pre-clearing vegetation map, independent data set model validation and model prediction's scale assessments. An accurate pre-clearing vegetation map of the Innisfail Lowlands was generated (0.83r(2)) through GIS integration of 28 separate statistical models. This modelling approach has good potential for wider application, including provision of. vital information for conservation planning and management; a scientific basis for rehabilitation of disturbed and cleared areas; a viable method for the production of adequate vegetation maps for conservation and forestry planning of poorly-studied areas. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Formalising behaviour trees with CSP

Behaviour Trees is a novel approach for requirements engineering. It advocates a graphical tree notation that is easy to use and to understand. Individual requirements axe modelled as single trees which later on are integrated into a model of the system as a whole. We develop a formal semantics for a subset of Behaviour Trees using CSP. This work, on one hand, provides tool support for Behaviour Trees. On the other hand, it builds a front-end to a subset of the CSP notation and gives CSP users a new modelling strategy which is well suited to the challenges of requirements engineering.