793 resultados para Regional population forecasting, service provision, box-Jenkins model


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Este trabalho apresenta e analisa o Consórcio Intermunicipal do Leste Fluminense (CONLESTE), criado em 2006 e composto por dezesseis municípios do estado do Rio de Janeiro, com o objetivo de buscar soluções para os impactos do Complexo Petroquímico da Petrobras (Comperj). Discute a crise do planejamento regional e a ausência de arranjos de gestão do território que atendam às especificidades do pacto federativo brasileiro. Apresenta os consórcios intermunicipais como alternativa utilizada por muitas cidades brasileiras ao modelo obsoleto das Regiões Metropolitanas, sem, contudo, se deter na comprovação da eficiência dos mesmos. Através de uma revisão bibliográfica de autores clássicos e contemporâneos, aborda o controverso conceito de região, como método para compreender a função regional exercida pelo consórcio. Debate a importância das escalas intermediárias em meio à falsa polarização global-local. Reforça a ideia da necessidade de articulação entre as distintas esferas de governo como forma de minimizar os transtornos provocados pelo caos urbano em que vive a população da área do CONLESTE.

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Reef fishes are conspicuous and essential components of coral reef ecosystems and economies of southern Florida and the United States Virgin Islands (USVI). Throughout Florida and the USVI, reef fish are under threat from a variety of anthropogenic and natural stressors including overfishing, habitat loss, and environmental changes. The South Florida/Caribbean Network (SFCN), a unit of the National Park Service (NPS), is charged with monitoring reef fishes, among other natural and cultural resources, within six parks in the South Florida - Caribbean region (Biscayne National Park, BISC; Buck Island Reef National Monument, BUIS; Dry Tortugas National Park, DRTO; Everglades National Park, EVER; Salt River Bay National Historic Park and Ecological Preserve, SARI; Virgin Islands National Park, VIIS). Monitoring data is intended for park managers who are and will continue to be asked to make decisions to balance environmental protection, fishery sustainability and park use by visitors. The range and complexity of the issues outlined above, and the need for NPS to invest in a strategy of monitoring, modeling, and management to ensure the sustainability of its precious assets, will require strategic investment in long-term, high-precision, multispecies reef fish data that increases inherent system knowledge and reduces uncertainty. The goal of this guide is to provide the framework for park managers and researchers to create or enhance a reef fish monitoring program within areas monitored by the SFCN. The framework is expected to be applicable to other areas as well, including the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary and Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument. The favored approach is characterized by an iterative process of data collection, dataset integration, sampling design analysis, and population and community assessment that evaluates resource risks associated with management policies. Using this model, a monitoring program can adapt its survey methods to increase accuracy and precision of survey estimates as new information becomes available, and adapt to the evolving needs and broadening responsibilities of park management.

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There is a pressing need to integrate biophysical and human dimensions science to better inform holistic ecosystem management supporting the transition from single species or single-sector management to multi-sector ecosystem-based management. Ecosystem-based management should focus upon ecosystem services, since they reflect societal goals, values, desires, and benefits. The inclusion of ecosystem services into holistic management strategies improves management by better capturing the diversity of positive and negative human-natural interactions and making explicit the benefits to society. To facilitate this inclusion, we propose a conceptual model that merges the broadly applied Driver, Pressure, State, Impact, and Response (DPSIR) conceptual model with ecosystem services yielding a Driver, Pressure, State, Ecosystem service, and Response (EBM-DPSER) conceptual model. The impact module in traditional DPSIR models focuses attention upon negative anthropomorphic impacts on the ecosystem; by replacing impacts with ecosystem services the EBM-DPSER model incorporates not only negative, but also positive changes in the ecosystem. Responses occur as a result of changes in ecosystem services and include inter alia management actions directed at proactively altering human population or individual behavior and infrastructure to meet societal goals. The EBM-DPSER conceptual model was applied to the Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas marine ecosystem as a case study to illustrate how it can inform management decisions. This case study captures our system-level understanding and results in a more holistic representation of ecosystem and human society interactions, thus improving our ability to identify trade-offs. The EBM-DPSER model should be a useful operational tool for implementing EBM, in that it fully integrates our knowledge of all ecosystem components while focusing management attention upon those aspects of the ecosystem most important to human society and does so within a framework already familiar to resource managers.

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For the last two decades most general circulation models (GCMs) have included some kind of surface hydrology submodel. The content of these submodels is becoming increasingly complex and realistic. It is still easy to identify defects in present treatments. Yet, to improve our ability to model the contribution of land hydrology to climate and climate change, we must be concerned not with just the surface hydrology submodel per se, but also with how it works in the overall context of the GCM.

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This article presents a laboratory study on the consequences of the application of combined soil stabilization and bioaugmentation in the remediation of a model contaminated soil. Stabilization and bioaugmentation are two techniques commonly applied independently for the remediation of heavy metal and organic contamination respectively. However, for a cocktail of contaminants combined treatments are currently being considered. The model soil was contaminated with a cocktail of organics and heavy metals based on the soil and contaminant conditions in a real contaminated site. The soil stabilization treatment was applied using either zeolite or green waste compost as additives and a commercially available hydrocarbon degrading microbial consortium was used for the bioaugmentation treatment. The effects of stabilization with or without bioaugmentation on the leachability of cadmium and copper was observed using an EU batch leaching test procedure and a flow-through column leaching test, both using deionized water at a pH of 5.6. In addition, the population of hydrocarbon degrading microorganisms was monitored using a modified plate count procedure in cases where bioaugmentation was applied. It was found that while the stabilization treatment reduced the metal leachability by up to 60%, the bioaugmentation treatment increased it by up to 100% Microbial survival was also higher in the stabilized soil samples.

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Assessment of country status papers on hilsa fisheries presented at the BOBP – IGO Chittagong, Bangladesh 2010. Assessment of status hilsa management in Bangladesh, India and Myanmar. Brief recommendations of potential follow-up activities that could enhance management. Risk assessment of hilsa in each country with Productivity Susceptibility Analysis (PSA). Summary of new approach to assess ecological risk.

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An object in the peripheral visual field is more difficult to recognize when surrounded by other objects. This phenomenon is called "crowding". Crowding places a fundamental constraint on human vision that limits performance on numerous tasks. It has been suggested that crowding results from spatial feature integration necessary for object recognition. However, in the absence of convincing models, this theory has remained controversial. Here, we present a quantitative and physiologically plausible model for spatial integration of orientation signals, based on the principles of population coding. Using simulations, we demonstrate that this model coherently accounts for fundamental properties of crowding, including critical spacing, "compulsory averaging", and a foveal-peripheral anisotropy. Moreover, we show that the model predicts increased responses to correlated visual stimuli. Altogether, these results suggest that crowding has little immediate bearing on object recognition but is a by-product of a general, elementary integration mechanism in early vision aimed at improving signal quality.

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Increasingly, manufacturing firms are turning to services as a new way of creating and capturing value. Despite its potential benefits, many new product-service providers struggle to deploy service activities effectively, not least because they fail to refect the presence of service activities in their performance management systems. This article reports the results of an in-depth case study, which examines how manufacturers can steer the transition towards services. It shows that manufacturing firms need to emphasize two separate but related dimensions of the market performance of service activities: "service adoption," refecting the proportion of customers who purchase the manufacturer's services; and "service coverage," signaling the range of service elements or the comprehensiveness of the service contract that customers opt for. These two indicators, refecting service market performance, should be supplemented with a "complementarity index" designed to disclose whether the relationship between products and services is reinforcing or substitutive. When combined, these indicators allow manufacturing firms to deploy a service-based business model in an integrated and sustainable manner. © 2013 by The Regents of the University of California. All rights reserved.