Downscaling of surface moisture flux and precipitation in the Ebro Valley (Spain) using analogues and analogues followed by random forests and multiple linear regression

In this paper, reanalysis fields from the ECMWF have been statistically downscaled to predict from large-scale atmospheric fields, surface moisture flux and daily precipitation at two observatories (Zaragoza and Tortosa, Ebro Valley, Spain) during the 1961-2001 period. Three types of downscaling models have been built: (i) analogues, (ii) analogues followed by random forests and (iii) analogues followed by multiple linear regression. The inputs consist of data (predictor fields) taken from the ERA-40 reanalysis. The predicted fields are precipitation and surface moisture flux as measured at the two observatories. With the aim to reduce the dimensionality of the problem, the ERA-40 fields have been decomposed using empirical orthogonal functions. Available daily data has been divided into two parts: a training period used to find a group of about 300 analogues to build the downscaling model (1961-1996) and a test period (19972001), where models' performance has been assessed using independent data. In the case of surface moisture flux, the models based on analogues followed by random forests do not clearly outperform those built on analogues plus multiple linear regression, while simple averages calculated from the nearest analogues found in the training period, yielded only slightly worse results. In the case of precipitation, the three types of model performed equally. These results suggest that most of the models' downscaling capabilities can be attributed to the analogues-calculation stage.

Random response of nonlinear continuous systems

This thesis presents a technique for obtaining the stochastic response of a nonlinear continuous system. First, the general method of nonstationary continuous equivalent linearization is developed. This technique allows replacement of the original nonlinear system with a time-varying linear continuous system. Next, a numerical implementation is described which allows solution of complex problems on a digital computer. In this procedure, the linear replacement system is discretized by the finite element method. Application of this method to systems satisfying the one-dimensional wave equation with two different types of constitutive nonlinearities is described. Results are discussed for nonlinear stress-strain laws of both hardening and softening types.

Absolute measurement of roughness and lateral-correlation length of random surfaces by use of the simplified model of image-speckle contrast

We present a method of image-speckle contrast for the nonprecalibration measurement of the root-mean-square roughness and the lateral-correlation length of random surfaces with Gaussian correlation. We use the simplified model of the speckle fields produced by the weak scattering object in the theoretical analysis. The explicit mathematical relation shows that the saturation value of the image-speckle contrast at a large aperture radius determines the roughness, while the variation of the contrast with the aperture radius determines the lateral-correlation length. In the experimental performance, we specially fabricate the random surface samples with Gaussian correlation. The square of the image-speckle contrast is measured versus the radius of the aperture in the 4f system, and the roughness and the lateral-correlation length are extracted by fitting the theoretical result to the experimental data. Comparison of the measurement with that by an atomic force microscope shows our method has a satisfying accuracy. (C) 2002 Optical Society of America.

Comparison of resident and tourist preferences for public beach access

As coastal destinations continue to grow, due to tourism and residential expansion, the demand for public beach access and related amenities will also increase. As a resultagencies that provide beach access and related amenities face challenges when considering both residents and visitors use beaches and likely possess different needs, as well as different preferences for management decisions. Being a resident of a coastal county provides more opportunity to use local beaches, but coastal tourism is an important and growing economic engine in coastal communities (Kriesel, Landry, & Keeler, 2005; Pogue & Lee, 1999). Therefore, providing agencies with a comprehensive assessment of the differences between these two groups will increase the likelihood of effective management programs and policies for the provision of public beach access and related amenities. The purpose of this paper was to use a stated preference choice method (SPCM) to identify the extent of both residents’ and visitors’ preferences for public beach management options. (PDF contains 4 pages)

On erasure coding for distributed storage and streaming communications

The work presented in this thesis revolves around erasure correction coding, as applied to distributed data storage and real-time streaming communications.

First, we examine the problem of allocating a given storage budget over a set of nodes for maximum reliability. The objective is to find an allocation of the budget that maximizes the probability of successful recovery by a data collector accessing a random subset of the nodes. This optimization problem is challenging in general because of its combinatorial nature, despite its simple formulation. We study several variations of the problem, assuming different allocation models and access models, and determine the optimal allocation and the optimal symmetric allocation (in which all nonempty nodes store the same amount of data) for a variety of cases. Although the optimal allocation can have nonintuitive structure and can be difficult to find in general, our results suggest that, as a simple heuristic, reliable storage can be achieved by spreading the budget maximally over all nodes when the budget is large, and spreading it minimally over a few nodes when it is small. Coding would therefore be beneficial in the former case, while uncoded replication would suffice in the latter case.

Second, we study how distributed storage allocations affect the recovery delay in a mobile setting. Specifically, two recovery delay optimization problems are considered for a network of mobile storage nodes: the maximization of the probability of successful recovery by a given deadline, and the minimization of the expected recovery delay. We show that the first problem is closely related to the earlier allocation problem, and solve the second problem completely for the case of symmetric allocations. It turns out that the optimal allocations for the two problems can be quite different. In a simulation study, we evaluated the performance of a simple data dissemination and storage protocol for mobile delay-tolerant networks, and observed that the choice of allocation can have a significant impact on the recovery delay under a variety of scenarios.

Third, we consider a real-time streaming system where messages created at regular time intervals at a source are encoded for transmission to a receiver over a packet erasure link; the receiver must subsequently decode each message within a given delay from its creation time. For erasure models containing a limited number of erasures per coding window, per sliding window, and containing erasure bursts whose maximum length is sufficiently short or long, we show that a time-invariant intrasession code asymptotically achieves the maximum message size among all codes that allow decoding under all admissible erasure patterns. For the bursty erasure model, we also show that diagonally interleaved codes derived from specific systematic block codes are asymptotically optimal over all codes in certain cases. We also study an i.i.d. erasure model in which each transmitted packet is erased independently with the same probability; the objective is to maximize the decoding probability for a given message size. We derive an upper bound on the decoding probability for any time-invariant code, and show that the gap between this bound and the performance of a family of time-invariant intrasession codes is small when the message size and packet erasure probability are small. In a simulation study, these codes performed well against a family of random time-invariant convolutional codes under a number of scenarios.

Finally, we consider the joint problems of routing and caching for named data networking. We propose a backpressure-based policy that employs virtual interest packets to make routing and caching decisions. In a packet-level simulation, the proposed policy outperformed a basic protocol that combines shortest-path routing with least-recently-used (LRU) cache replacement.

Evaluation of woman fisherfolks involvement in fisheries activities in Kainji Lake basin

The extent of rural women fisherfolks contribution to fisheries was grossly under estimated and certainly under valued. The basis of their involvement in fisheries activities is to make themselves equal partners to men productive and self reliant participants in the process of improving their own and their family living standard and to enable them realize their full potentials. This survey is informed a system of data collection with the aid of questionnaires and analysis. Ninety-six of the questionnaires were administered to women fisher folks in eight fishing communities selected at random. Thirty seven (97) percent of the women fisher folks are between the ages of 25-35 years, 59.4% of them can only read and write in Arabic language and 21.9% only are literature in western education, which is a general characteristic of the rural population in Nigeria. 24.0% of the respondents are in full time fishing activities while 65-5% are fishmongers. They belong to cooperative societies but only 26% indicated to have benefited from loan and credit facilities. 84.4% of the respondents are sustained by the business. The major problems facing women fisherfolks includes poor market price, fish spoilage, high transport cost and lack of access to loan and credit facilities and extension assistance. Solution to these problems will increase their status benefit and development

Assessment of access to health services and vulnerabilities of female fish traders in the Kafue Flats, Zambia: analysis report

Under the regional programme Fisheries and HIV/AIDS in Africa: Investing in Sustainable Solutions, the WorldFish Center conducted this study on access to health services and vulnerabilities of female fish traders in the Kafue Flats floodplains in Zambia. This report outlines and analyses the particular vulnerabilities of female fish traders in the Kafue Flats fishery and formulates recommendations to facilitate stakeholder uptake of strategic responses to tackle the drivers of the epidemic in fishing communities and improve the livelihoods of fisher folk and fish traders in the Kafue Flats and other fisheries in Zambia. (pdf contains 55 pages)

The autocorrelation of speckles in deep Fresnel diffraction region and characterizations of random self-affine fractal surfaces

This paper studies the correlation properties of the speckles in the deep Fresnel diffraction region produced by the scattering of rough self-affine fractal surfaces. The autocorrelation function of the speckle intensities is formulated by the combination of the light scattering theory of Kirchhoff approximation and the principles of speckle statistics. We propose a method for extracting the three surface parameters, i.e. the roughness w, the lateral correlation length xi and the roughness exponent alpha, from the autocorrelation functions of speckles. This method is verified by simulating the speckle intensities and calculating the speckle autocorrelation function. We also find the phenomenon that for rough surfaces with alpha = 1, the structure of the speckles resembles that of the surface heights, which results from the effect of the peak and the valley parts of the surface, acting as micro-lenses converging and diverging the light waves.

The accuracy of Kirchhoff's approximation in describing the far field speckles produced by random self-affine fractal surfaces

Based on the rigorous formulation of integral equations for the propagations of light waves at the medium interface, we carry out the numerical solutions of the random light field scattered from self-affine fractal surface samples. The light intensities produced by the same surface samples are also calculated in Kirchhoff's approximation, and their comparisons with the corresponding rigorous results show directly the degree of the accuracy of the approximation. It is indicated that Kirchhoff's approximation is of good accuracy for random surfaces with small roughness value w and large roughness exponent alpha. For random surfaces with larger w and smaller alpha, the approximation results in considerable errors, and detailed calculations show that the inaccuracy comes from the simplification that the transmitted light field is proportional to the incident field and from the neglect of light field derivative at the interface.