Understanding cumulative risk

This paper summarizes the theory of simple cumulative risks—for example, the risk of food poisoning from the consumption of a series of portions of tainted food. Problems concerning such risks are extraordinarily difficult for naı¨ve individuals, and the paper explains the reasons for this difficulty. It describes how naı¨ve individuals usually attempt to estimate cumulative risks, and it outlines a computer program that models these methods. This account predicts that estimates can be improved if problems of cumulative risk are framed so that individuals can focus on the appropriate subset of cases. The paper reports two experiments that corroborated this prediction. They also showed that whether problems are stated in terms of frequencies (80 out of 100 people got food poisoning) or in terms of percentages (80% of people got food poisoning) did not reliably affect accuracy.

Spectroscopic properties and electronic structures of 17-electron half-sandwich ruthenium acetylide complexes, [Ru(CCAr)(L2)Cp′]+ (Ar=phenyl, p-tolyl, 1-naphthyl, 9-anthryl; L2=(PPh3)2, Cp′=Cp; L2=dppe; Cp′=Cp∗)

A series of half-sandwich bis(phosphine) ruthenium acetylide complexes [Ru(C CAr)(L-2)Cp'] (Ar = phenyl, p-tolyl, 1-naphthyl, 9-anthryl; L2 = (PPh3)(2), Cp' = Cp; L-2 = dppe; Cp' = Cp*) have been examined using electrochemical and spectroelectrochemical methods. One-electron oxidation of these complexes gave the corresponding radical cations [Ru(C CAr)(L2)Cp'](+). Those cations based on Ru(dppe)Cp*, or which feature a para-tolyl acetylide substituent, are more chemically robust than examples featuring the Ru(PPh3)(2)Cp moiety, permitting good quality UV-Vis-NIR and IR spectroscopic data to be obtained using spectroelectrochemical methods. On the basis of TD DFT calculations, the low energy (NIR) absorption bands in the experimental electronic spectra for most of these radical cations are assigned to transitions between the beta-HOSO and beta-LUSO, both of which have appreciable metal d and ethynyl pi character. However, the large contribution from the anthryl moiety to the frontier orbitals of [Ru(C CC14H9)(L2)CP'](+) suggests compounds containing this moiety should be described as metal-stabilised anthryl radical cations.

Syntheses, structures, some reactions, and electrochemical oxidation of ferrocenylethynyl complexes of iron, ruthenium, and osmium

The syntheses and characterizations of several complexes containing ferrocenylethynyl and ferrocene-1,1'-bis(ethynyl) groups attached to M(PP)Cp'[M = Fe, Ru, PP = dppe, Cp'= Cp*; M = Ru, Os, PP = (PPh3)(2), dppe, Cp' = Cp] are described. Reactions with tetracyanoethene have given either tetracyanobuta-1,3-dienyl or eta(3)-allylic derivatives, while addition of Me+ afforded the corresponding vinylidene derivatives. Some electrochemical measurements are discussed in terms of electronic communication between the redox-active M(PP)Cp' groups through the ferrocene nucleus. The molecular structures of 14 of these complexes have been determined by crystallographic methods.

Less-is-more effects in knowledge-based heuristic inference

Inference on the basis of recognition alone is assumed to occur prior to accessing further information (Pachur & Hertwig, 2006). A counterintuitive result of this is the “less-is-more” effect: a drop in the accuracy with which choices are made as to which of two or more items scores highest on a given criterion as more items are learned (Frosch, Beaman & McCloy, 2007; Goldstein & Gigerenzer, 2002). In this paper, we show that less-is-more effects are not unique to recognition-based inference but can also be observed with a knowledge-based strategy provided two assumptions, limited information and differential access, are met. The LINDA model which embodies these assumptions is presented. Analysis of the less-is-more effects predicted by LINDA and by recognition-driven inference shows that these occur for similar reasons and casts doubt upon the “special” nature of recognition-based inference. Suggestions are made for empirical tests to compare knowledge-based and recognition-based less-is-more effects

Rethinking construction: the Generic Design and Construction Process Protocol

The complexity of construction projects and the fragmentation of the construction industry undertaking those projects has effectively resulted in linear, uncoordinated and highly variable project processes in the UK construction sector. Research undertaken at the University of Salford resulted in the development of an improved project process, the Process Protocol, which considers the whole lifecycle of a construction project whilst integrating its participants under a common framework. The Process Protocol identifies the various phases of a construction project with particular emphasis on what is described in the manufacturing industry as the ‘fuzzy front end’. The participants in the process are described in terms of the activities that need to be undertaken in order to achieve a successful project and process execution. In addition, the decision-making mechanisms, from a client perspective, are illustrated and the foundations for a learning organization/industry are facilitated within a consistent Process Protocol.