863 resultados para REGRESSION MULTINOMIAL ANALYSIS


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BACKGROUND Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are the backbone of osteoarthritis pain management. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of different preparations and doses of NSAIDs on osteoarthritis pain in a network meta-analysis. METHODS For this network meta-analysis, we considered randomised trials comparing any of the following interventions: NSAIDs, paracetamol, or placebo, for the treatment of osteoarthritis pain. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and the reference lists of relevant articles for trials published between Jan 1, 1980, and Feb 24, 2015, with at least 100 patients per group. The prespecified primary and secondary outcomes were pain and physical function, and were extracted in duplicate for up to seven timepoints after the start of treatment. We used an extension of multivariable Bayesian random effects models for mixed multiple treatment comparisons with a random effect at the level of trials. For the primary analysis, a random walk of first order was used to account for multiple follow-up outcome data within a trial. Preparations that used different total daily dose were considered separately in the analysis. To assess a potential dose-response relation, we used preparation-specific covariates assuming linearity on log relative dose. FINDINGS We identified 8973 manuscripts from our search, of which 74 randomised trials with a total of 58 556 patients were included in this analysis. 23 nodes concerning seven different NSAIDs or paracetamol with specific daily dose of administration or placebo were considered. All preparations, irrespective of dose, improved point estimates of pain symptoms when compared with placebo. For six interventions (diclofenac 150 mg/day, etoricoxib 30 mg/day, 60 mg/day, and 90 mg/day, and rofecoxib 25 mg/day and 50 mg/day), the probability that the difference to placebo is at or below a prespecified minimum clinically important effect for pain reduction (effect size [ES] -0·37) was at least 95%. Among maximally approved daily doses, diclofenac 150 mg/day (ES -0·57, 95% credibility interval [CrI] -0·69 to -0·46) and etoricoxib 60 mg/day (ES -0·58, -0·73 to -0·43) had the highest probability to be the best intervention, both with 100% probability to reach the minimum clinically important difference. Treatment effects increased as drug dose increased, but corresponding tests for a linear dose effect were significant only for celecoxib (p=0·030), diclofenac (p=0·031), and naproxen (p=0·026). We found no evidence that treatment effects varied over the duration of treatment. Model fit was good, and between-trial heterogeneity and inconsistency were low in all analyses. All trials were deemed to have a low risk of bias for blinding of patients. Effect estimates did not change in sensitivity analyses with two additional statistical models and accounting for methodological quality criteria in meta-regression analysis. INTERPRETATION On the basis of the available data, we see no role for single-agent paracetamol for the treatment of patients with osteoarthritis irrespective of dose. We provide sound evidence that diclofenac 150 mg/day is the most effective NSAID available at present, in terms of improving both pain and function. Nevertheless, in view of the safety profile of these drugs, physicians need to consider our results together with all known safety information when selecting the preparation and dose for individual patients. FUNDING Swiss National Science Foundation (grant number 405340-104762) and Arco Foundation, Switzerland.

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OBJECTIVES Improvement of skin fibrosis is part of the natural course of diffuse cutaneous systemic sclerosis (dcSSc). Recognising those patients most likely to improve could help tailoring clinical management and cohort enrichment for clinical trials. In this study, we aimed to identify predictors for improvement of skin fibrosis in patients with dcSSc. METHODS We performed a longitudinal analysis of the European Scleroderma Trials And Research (EUSTAR) registry including patients with dcSSc, fulfilling American College of Rheumatology criteria, baseline modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) ≥7 and follow-up mRSS at 12±2 months. The primary outcome was skin improvement (decrease in mRSS of >5 points and ≥25%) at 1 year follow-up. A respective increase in mRSS was considered progression. Candidate predictors for skin improvement were selected by expert opinion and logistic regression with bootstrap validation was applied. RESULTS From the 919 patients included, 218 (24%) improved and 95 (10%) progressed. Eleven candidate predictors for skin improvement were analysed. The final model identified high baseline mRSS and absence of tendon friction rubs as independent predictors of skin improvement. The baseline mRSS was the strongest predictor of skin improvement, independent of disease duration. An upper threshold between 18 and 25 performed best in enriching for progressors over regressors. CONCLUSIONS Patients with advanced skin fibrosis at baseline and absence of tendon friction rubs are more likely to regress in the next year than patients with milder skin fibrosis. These evidence-based data can be implemented in clinical trial design to minimise the inclusion of patients who would regress under standard of care.

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All forms of Kaposi sarcoma (KS) are more common in men than in women. It is unknown if this is due to a higher prevalence of human herpesvirus 8 (HHV-8), the underlying cause of KS, in men compared to women. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the association between HHV-8 seropositivity and gender in the general population. Studies in selected populations like for example, blood donors, hospital patients, and men who have sex with men were excluded. We searched Medline and Embase from January 1994 to February 2015. We included observational studies that recruited participants from the general population and reported HHV-8 seroprevalence for men and women or boys and girls. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool odds ratios (OR) of the association between HHV-8 and gender. We used meta-regression to identify effect modifiers, including age, geographical region and type of HHV-8 antibody test. We included 22 studies, with 36,175 participants. Men from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) (OR 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.34), but not men from elsewhere (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.83-1.06), were more likely to be HHV-8 seropositive than women (p value for interaction=0.010). There was no difference in HHV-8 seroprevalence between boys and girls from SSA (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.72-1.13). The type of HHV-8 assay did not affect the overall results. A higher HHV-8 seroprevalence in men than women in SSA may partially explain why men have higher KS risk in this region. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

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INTRODUCTION Despite important advances in psychological and pharmacological treatments of persistent depressive disorders in the past decades, their responses remain typically slow and poor, and differential responses among different modalities of treatments or their combinations are not well understood. Cognitive-Behavioural Analysis System of Psychotherapy (CBASP) is the only psychotherapy that has been specifically designed for chronic depression and has been examined in an increasing number of trials against medications, alone or in combination. When several treatment alternatives are available for a certain condition, network meta-analysis (NMA) provides a powerful tool to examine their relative efficacy by combining all direct and indirect comparisons. Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis enables exploration of impacts of individual characteristics that lead to a differentiated approach matching treatments to specific subgroups of patients. METHODS AND ANALYSIS We will search for all randomised controlled trials that compared CBASP, pharmacotherapy or their combination, in the treatment of patients with persistent depressive disorder, in Cochrane CENTRAL, PUBMED, SCOPUS and PsycINFO, supplemented by personal contacts. Individual participant data will be sought from the principal investigators of all the identified trials. Our primary outcomes are depression severity as measured on a continuous observer-rated scale for depression, and dropouts for any reason as a proxy measure of overall treatment acceptability. We will conduct a one-step IPD-NMA to compare CBASP, medications and their combinations, and also carry out a meta-regression to identify their prognostic factors and effect moderators. The model will be fitted in OpenBUGS, using vague priors for all location parameters. For the heterogeneity we will use a half-normal prior on the SD. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION This study requires no ethical approval. We will publish the findings in a peer-reviewed journal. The study results will contribute to more finely differentiated therapeutics for patients suffering from this chronically disabling disorder. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER CRD42016035886.

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INTRODUCTION Although hepatitis C virus (HCV) screening is recommended for all HIV-infected patients initiating antiretroviral therapy, data on epidemiologic characteristics of HCV infection in resource-limited settings are scarce. METHODS We searched PubMed and EMBASE for studies assessing the prevalence of HCV infection among HIV-infected individuals in Africa and extracted data on laboratory methods used. Prevalence estimates from individual studies were combined for each country using random-effects meta-analysis. The importance of study design, population and setting as well as type of test (anti-HCV antibody tests and polymerase chain reactions) was examined with meta-regression. RESULTS Three randomized controlled trials, 28 cohort studies and 121 cross-sectional analyses with 108,180 HIV-infected individuals from 35 countries were included. The majority of data came from outpatient populations (55%), followed by blood donors (15%) and pregnant women (14%). Based on estimates from 159 study populations, anti-HCV positivity prevalence ranged between 3.3% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8-4.7) in Southern Africa and 42.3% (95% CI 4.1-80.5) in North Africa. Study design, type of setting and age distribution did not influence this prevalence significantly. The prevalence of replicating HCV infection, estimated from data of 29 cohorts, was 2.0% (95% CI 1.5-2.6). Ten studies from nine countries reported the HCV genotype of 74 samples, 53% were genotype 1, 24% genotype 2, 14% genotype 4 and 9% genotypes 3, 5 or 6. CONCLUSIONS The prevalence of anti-HCV antibodies is high in HIV-infected patients in Africa, but replicating HCV infection is rare and varies widely across countries.

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Background and purpose: Breast cancer continues to be a health problem for women, representing 28 percent of all female cancers and remaining one of the leading causes of death for women. Breast cancer incidence rates become substantial before the age of 50. After menopause, breast cancer incidence rates continue to increase with age creating a long-lasting source of concern (Harris et al., 1992). Mammography, a technique for the detection of breast tumors in their nonpalpable stage when they are most curable, has taken on considerable importance as a public health measure. The lifetime risk of breast cancer is approximately 1 in 9 and occurs over many decades. Recommendations are that screening be periodic in order to detect cancer at early stages. These recommendations, largely, are not followed. Not only are most women not getting regular mammograms, but this circumstance is particularly the case among older women where regular mammography has been proven to reduce mortality by approximately 30 percent. The purpose of this project was to increase our understanding of factors that are associated with stage of readiness to obtain subsequent mammograms. A secondary purpose of this research was to suggest further conceptual considerations toward the extension of the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) of behavior change to repeat screening mammography. ^ Methods. A sample (n = 1,222) of women 50 years and older in a large multi-specialty clinic in Houston, Texas was surveyed by mail questionnaire regarding their previous screening experience and stage of readiness to obtain repeat screening. A computerized database, maintained on all women who undergo mammography at the clinic, was used to identify women who are eligible for the project. The major statistical technique employed to select the significant variables and to examine the man and interaction effects of independent variables on dependent variables was polychotomous stepwise, logistic regression. A prediction model for each stage of readiness definition was estimated. The expected probabilities for stage of readiness were calculated to assess the magnitude and direction of significant predictors. ^ Results. Analysis showed that both ways of defining stage of readiness for obtaining a screening mammogram were associated with specific constructs, including decisional balance and processes of the change. ^ Conclusions. The results of the present study demonstrate that the TTM appears to translate to repeat mammography screening. Findings in the current study also support finding of previous studies that suggest that stage of readiness is associated with respondent decisional balance and the processes of change. ^

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The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of predictor variable correlations and patterns of missingness with dichotomous and/or continuous data in small samples when missing data is multiply imputed. Missing data of predictor variables is multiply imputed under three different multivariate models: the multivariate normal model for continuous data, the multinomial model for dichotomous data and the general location model for mixed dichotomous and continuous data. Subsequent to the multiple imputation process, Type I error rates of the regression coefficients obtained with logistic regression analysis are estimated under various conditions of correlation structure, sample size, type of data and patterns of missing data. The distributional properties of average mean, variance and correlations among the predictor variables are assessed after the multiple imputation process. ^ For continuous predictor data under the multivariate normal model, Type I error rates are generally within the nominal values with samples of size n = 100. Smaller samples of size n = 50 resulted in more conservative estimates (i.e., lower than the nominal value). Correlation and variance estimates of the original data are retained after multiple imputation with less than 50% missing continuous predictor data. For dichotomous predictor data under the multinomial model, Type I error rates are generally conservative, which in part is due to the sparseness of the data. The correlation structure for the predictor variables is not well retained on multiply-imputed data from small samples with more than 50% missing data with this model. For mixed continuous and dichotomous predictor data, the results are similar to those found under the multivariate normal model for continuous data and under the multinomial model for dichotomous data. With all data types, a fully-observed variable included with variables subject to missingness in the multiple imputation process and subsequent statistical analysis provided liberal (larger than nominal values) Type I error rates under a specific pattern of missing data. It is suggested that future studies focus on the effects of multiple imputation in multivariate settings with more realistic data characteristics and a variety of multivariate analyses, assessing both Type I error and power. ^

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In this paper, we extend the debate concerning Credit Default Swap valuation to include time varying correlation and co-variances. Traditional multi-variate techniques treat the correlations between covariates as constant over time; however, this view is not supported by the data. Secondly, since financial data does not follow a normal distribution because of its heavy tails, modeling the data using a Generalized Linear model (GLM) incorporating copulas emerge as a more robust technique over traditional approaches. This paper also includes an empirical analysis of the regime switching dynamics of credit risk in the presence of liquidity by following the general practice of assuming that credit and market risk follow a Markov process. The study was based on Credit Default Swap data obtained from Bloomberg that spanned the period January 1st 2004 to August 08th 2006. The empirical examination of the regime switching tendencies provided quantitative support to the anecdotal view that liquidity decreases as credit quality deteriorates. The analysis also examined the joint probability distribution of the credit risk determinants across credit quality through the use of a copula function which disaggregates the behavior embedded in the marginal gamma distributions, so as to isolate the level of dependence which is captured in the copula function. The results suggest that the time varying joint correlation matrix performed far superior as compared to the constant correlation matrix; the centerpiece of linear regression models.

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ABSTRACT : BACKGROUND : Diets that restrict carbohydrate (CHO) have proven to be a successful dietary treatment of obesity for many people, but the degree of weight loss varies across individuals. The extent to which genetic factors associate with the magnitude of weight loss induced by CHO restriction is unknown. We examined associations among polymorphisms in candidate genes and weight loss in order to understand the physiological factors influencing body weight responses to CHO restriction. METHODS : We screened for genetic associations with weight loss in 86 healthy adults who were instructed to restrict CHO to a level that induced a small level of ketosis (CHO ~10% of total energy). A total of 27 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were selected from 15 candidate genes involved in fat digestion/metabolism, intracellular glucose metabolism, lipoprotein remodeling, and appetite regulation. Multiple linear regression was used to rank the SNPs according to probability of association, and the most significant associations were analyzed in greater detail. RESULTS : Mean weight loss was 6.4 kg. SNPs in the gastric lipase (LIPF), hepatic glycogen synthase (GYS2), cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) and galanin (GAL) genes were significantly associated with weight loss. CONCLUSION : A strong association between weight loss induced by dietary CHO restriction and variability in genes regulating fat digestion, hepatic glucose metabolism, intravascular lipoprotein remodeling, and appetite were detected. These discoveries could provide clues to important physiologic adaptations underlying the body mass response to CHO restriction.

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This paper investigates the effects on open-seat races in the United States House of Representatives. This project focuses on the influence that the House leadership exerts on races. Generally, the leadership influences race through spending by party organizations and leadership visits. During each election cycle, national party organizations spend millions of dollars to get their candidates into office. I have developed a multiple regression model that measures different types of spending from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the National Republican Congressional Committee, and the Republican National Committee and the effects of these spending types on the election results. Also, the study examines the number of visits by each party’s leadership to each race. I introduced control variables that account for the year, the competitiveness of each race, and the individual candidate fundraising. In terms of statistical significance, the results were mixed showing one type of party spending to be highly influential in the outcome of the race. Competitiveness and individual candidate fundraising also achieved statistical significance. The study also includes a qualitative investigation of leadership visits and individual case studies in order to understand better the way in which the data interact in real campaigns.

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Gender and racial/ethnic disparities in colorectal cancer screening (CRC) has been observed and associated with income status, education level, treatment and late diagnosis. According to the American Cancer Society, among both males and females, CRC is the third most frequently diagnosed type of cancer and accounts for 10% of cancer deaths in the United States. Differences in CRC test use have been documented and limited to access to health care, demographics and health behaviors, but few studies have examined the correlates of CRC screening test use by gender. This present study examined the prevalence of CRC screening test use and assessed whether disparities are explained by gender and racial/ethnic differences. To assess these associations, the study utilized a cross-sectional design and examined the distribution of the covariates for gender and racial/ethnic group differences using the chi square statistic. Logistic regression was used to estimate the prevalence odds ratio and to adjust for the confounding effects of the covariates. ^ Results indicated there are disparities in the use of CRC screening test use and there were statistically significant difference in the prevalence for both FOBT and endoscopy screening between gender, χ2, p≤0.003. Females had a lower prevalence of endoscopy colorectal cancer screening than males when adjusting for age and education (OR 0.88, 95% CI 0.82–0.95). However, no statistically significant difference was reported between racial/ethnic groups, χ 2 p≤0.179 after adjusting for age, education and gender. For both FOBT and endoscopy screening Non-Hispanic Blacks and Hispanics had a lower prevalence of screening compared with Non-Hispanic Whites. In the multivariable regression model, the gender disparities could largely be explained by age, income status, education level, and marital status. Overall, individuals between the age "70–79" years old, were married, with some college education and income greater than $20,000 were associated with a higher prevalence of colorectal cancer screening test use within gender and racial/ethnic groups. ^

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With the recognition of the importance of evidence-based medicine, there is an emerging need for methods to systematically synthesize available data. Specifically, methods to provide accurate estimates of test characteristics for diagnostic tests are needed to help physicians make better clinical decisions. To provide more flexible approaches for meta-analysis of diagnostic tests, we developed three Bayesian generalized linear models. Two of these models, a bivariate normal and a binomial model, analyzed pairs of sensitivity and specificity values while incorporating the correlation between these two outcome variables. Noninformative independent uniform priors were used for the variance of sensitivity, specificity and correlation. We also applied an inverse Wishart prior to check the sensitivity of the results. The third model was a multinomial model where the test results were modeled as multinomial random variables. All three models can include specific imaging techniques as covariates in order to compare performance. Vague normal priors were assigned to the coefficients of the covariates. The computations were carried out using the 'Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling' implementation of Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We investigated the properties of the three proposed models through extensive simulation studies. We also applied these models to a previously published meta-analysis dataset on cervical cancer as well as to an unpublished melanoma dataset. In general, our findings show that the point estimates of sensitivity and specificity were consistent among Bayesian and frequentist bivariate normal and binomial models. However, in the simulation studies, the estimates of the correlation coefficient from Bayesian bivariate models are not as good as those obtained from frequentist estimation regardless of which prior distribution was used for the covariance matrix. The Bayesian multinomial model consistently underestimated the sensitivity and specificity regardless of the sample size and correlation coefficient. In conclusion, the Bayesian bivariate binomial model provides the most flexible framework for future applications because of its following strengths: (1) it facilitates direct comparison between different tests; (2) it captures the variability in both sensitivity and specificity simultaneously as well as the intercorrelation between the two; and (3) it can be directly applied to sparse data without ad hoc correction. ^

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Objective. In 2003, the State of Texas instituted the Driver Responsibility Program (TDRP), a program consisting of a driving infraction point system coupled with a series of graded fines and annual surcharges for specific traffic violations such as driving while intoxicated (DWI). Approximately half of the revenues generated are earmarked to be disbursed to the state's trauma system to cover uncompensated trauma care costs. This study examined initial program implementation, the impact of trauma system funding, and initial impact on impaired driving knowledge, attitudes and behaviors. A model for targeted media campaigns to improve the program's deterrence effects was developed. ^ Methods. Data from two independent driver survey samples (conducted in 1999 and 2005), department of public safety records, state health department data and a state auditor's report were used to evaluate the program's initial implementation, impact and outcome with respect to drivers' impaired driving knowledge, attitudes and behavior (based on constructs of social cognitive theory) and hospital uncompensated trauma care funding. Survey results were used to develop a regression model of high risk drivers who should be targeted to improve program outcome with respect to deterring impaired driving. ^ Results. Low driver compliance with fee payment (28%) and program implementation problems were associated with lower surcharge revenues in the first two years ($59.5 million versus $525 million predicted). Program revenue distribution to trauma hospitals was associated with a 16% increase in designated trauma centers. Survey data demonstrated that only 28% of drivers are aware of the TDRP and that there has been no initial impact on impaired driving behavior. Logistical regression modeling suggested that target media campaigns highlighting the likelihood of DWI detection by law enforcement and the increased surcharges associated with the TDRP are required to deter impaired driving. ^ Conclusions. Although the TDRP raised nearly $60 million in surcharge revenue for the Texas trauma system over the first two years, this study did not find evidence of a change in impaired driving knowledge, attitudes or behaviors from 1999 to 2005. Further research is required to measure whether the program is associated with decreased alcohol-related traffic fatalities. ^

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Objective. The purpose of the study is to provide a holistic depiction of behavioral & environmental factors contributing to risky sexual behaviors among predominantly high school educated, low-income African Americans residing in urban areas of Houston, TX utilizing the Theory of Gender and Power, Situational/Environmental Variables Theory, and Sexual Script Theory. ^ Methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted via questionnaires among 215 Houston area residents, 149 were women and 66 were male. Measures used to assess behaviors of the population included a history of homelessness, use of crack/cocaine among several other illicit drugs, the type of sexual partner, age of participant, age of most recent sex partner, whether or not participants sought health care in the last 12 months, knowledge of partner's other sexual activities, symptoms of depression, and places where partner's were met. In an effort to determine risk of sexual encounters, a risk index employing the variables used to assess condom use was created categorizing sexual encounters as unsafe or safe. ^ Results. Variables meeting the significance level of p<.15 for the bivariate analysis of each theory were entered into a binary logistic regression analysis. The block for each theory was significant, suggesting that the grouping assignments of each variable by theory were significantly associated with unsafe sexual behaviors. Within the regression analysis, variables such as sex for drugs/money, low income, and crack use demonstrated an effect size of ≥±1, indicating that these variables had a significant effect on unsafe sexual behavioral practices. ^ Conclusions. Variables assessing behavior and environment demonstrated a significant effect when categorized by relation to designated theories. ^

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Obesity prevalence among children and adolescents is rising. It is one of the most attributable causes of hospitalization and death. Overweight and obese children are more likely to suffer from associated conditions such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, chronic inflammation, increased blood clotting tendency, endothelial dysfunction, hyperinsulinemia, and asthma. These children and adolescents are also more likely to be overweight and obese in adulthood. Interestingly, rates of obesity and overweight are not evenly distributed across racial and ethnic groups. Mexican American youth have higher rates of obesity and are at higher risk of becoming obese than non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white children. ^ Methods. This cross-sectional study describes the association between rates of obesity and physical activity in a sample of 1313 inner-city Mexican American children and adolescents (5-19 years of age) in Houston, Texas. This study is important because it will contribute to our understanding of childhood and adolescent obesity in this at-risk population. ^ Data from the Mexican American Feasibility Cohort using the Mano a Mano questionnaire are used to describe this population's status of obesity and physical activity. An initial sample taken from 5000 households in inner city Houston Texas was used as the baseline for this prospective cohort. The questionnaire was given in person to the participants to complete (or to parents for younger children) at a home visit by two specially trained bilingual interviewers. Analysis comprised prevalence estimates of obesity represented as percentile rank (<85%= normal weight, >85%= at risk, >95%= obese) by age and gender. The association between light, moderate, strenuous activity, and obesity was also examined using linear regression. ^ Results. Overall, 46% of this Mexican American Feasibility cohort is overweight or obese. The prevalence for children in the 6-11 age range (53.2%) was significantly greater than that reported from NHANES, 1999–2002 data (39.4%). Although the percentage of overweight and obese among the 12-19 year olds was greater than that reported in NHANES (38.5% versus 38.6%) this difference was not statistically significant. ^ A significant association between BMI and sit time and moderate physical activity (both p < 0.05) found in this sample. For males, this association was significant for moderate physical activity (p < 0.01). For the females, this association was significant for BMI and sit time (p < 0.05). These results need to be interpreted in the light of design and measurement limitations. ^ Conclusion. This study supports observations that the inner city Houston Texas Mexican American child and adolescent population is more overweight and obese than nationally reported figures, and that there are positive relationships between BMI, activity levels, and sit time in this population. This study supports the need for public health initiatives within the Houston Hispanic community. ^