Climate response to basin-scale warming and cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean

Using experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model, the climate impacts of a basin-scale warming or cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean are investigated. Multidecadal fluctuations with this pattern were observed during the twentieth century, and similar variations--but with larger amplitude--are believed to have occurred in the more distant past. It is found that in all seasons the response to warming the North Atlantic is strongest, in the sense of highest signal-to-noise ratio, in the Tropics. However there is a large seasonal cycle in the climate impacts. The strongest response is found in boreal summer and is associated with suppressed precipitation and elevated temperatures over the lower-latitude parts of North and South America. In August­-September-­October there is a significant reduction in the vertical shear in the main development region for Atlantic hurricanes. In winter and spring, temperature anomalies over land in the extratropics are governed by dynamical changes in circulation rather than simply reflecting a thermodynamic response to the warming or cooling of the ocean. The tropical climate response is primarily forced by the tropical SST anomalies, and the major features are in line with simple models of the tropical circulation response to diabatic heating anomalies. The extratropical climate response is influenced both by tropical and higher-latitude SST anomalies and exhibits nonlinear sensitivity to the sign of the SST forcing. Comparisons with multidecadal changes in sea level pressure observed in the twentieth century support the conclusion that the impact of North Atlantic SST change is most important in summer, but also suggest a significant influence in lower latitudes in autumn and winter. Significant climate impacts are not restricted to the Atlantic basin, implying that the Atlantic Ocean could be an important driver of global decadal variability. The strongest remote impacts are found to occur in the tropical Pacific region in June­-August and September­-November. Surface anomalies in this region have the potential to excite coupled ocean­atmosphere feedbacks, which are likely to play an important role in shaping the ultimate climate response.

Preferred structures in large-scale circulation and the effect of doubling greenhouse gas concentration in HadCM3

Preferred structures in the surface pressure variability are investigated in and compared between two 100-year simulations of the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3. In the first (control) simulation, the model is forced with pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentration (1×CO2) and in the second simulation the model is forced with doubled CO2 concentration (2×CO2). Daily winter (December-January-February) surface pressures over the Northern Hemisphere are analysed. The identification of preferred patterns is addressed using multivariate mixture models. For the control simulation, two significant flow regimes are obtained at 5% and 2.5% significance levels within the state space spanned by the leading two principal components. They show a high pressure centre over the North Pacific/Aleutian Islands associated with a low pressure centre over the North Atlantic, and its reverse. For the 2×CO2 simulation, no such behaviour is obtained. At higher-dimensional state space, flow patterns are obtained from both simulations. They are found to be significant at the 1% level for the control simulation and at the 2.5% level for the 2×CO2 simulation. Hence under CO2 doubling, regime behaviour in the large-scale wave dynamics weakens. Doubling greenhouse gas concentration affects both the frequency of occurrence of regimes and also the pattern structures. The less frequent regime becomes amplified and the more frequent regime weakens. The largest change is observed over the Pacific where a significant deepening of the Aleutian low is obtained under CO2 doubling.

Large-scale context for the UK floods in summer 2007

This paper shows how the rainfall distribution over the UK, in the three major events on 13-15 June, 25 June and 20 July 2007, was related to troughs in the upper-level flow, and investigates the relationship of these features to a persistent large-scale flow pattern which extended around the northern hemisphere and its possible origins. Remote influences can be mediated by the propagation of large-scale atmospheric waves across the northern hemisphere and also by the origins of the air-masses that are wrapped into the developing weather systems delivering the rain to the UK. These dynamical influences are examined using analyses and forecasts produced by a range of atmospheric models.

Can the dynamical impact of the stratosphere on the troposphere be described by large-scale adjustment to the stratospheric PV distribution?

Recent numerical experiments have demonstrated that the state of the stratosphere has a dynamical impact on the state of the troposphere. To account for such an effect, a number of mechanisms have been proposed in the literature, all of which amount to a large-scale adjustment of the troposphere to potential vorticity (PV) anomalies in the stratosphere. This paper analyses whether a simple PV adjustment suffices to explain the actual dynamical response of the troposphere to the state of the stratosphere, the actual response being determined by ensembles of numerical experiments run with an atmospheric general-circulation model. For this purpose, a new PV inverter is developed. It is shown that the simple PV adjustment hypothesis is inadequate. PV anomalies in the stratosphere induce, by inversion, flow anomalies in the troposphere that do not coincide spatially with the tropospheric changes determined by the numerical experiments. Moreover, the tropospheric anomalies induced by PV inversion are on a larger scale than the changes found in the numerical experiments, which are linked to the Atlantic and Pacific storm-tracks. These findings imply that the impact of the stratospheric state on the troposphere is manifested through the impact on individual synoptic-scale systems and their self-organization in the storm-tracks. Changes in these weather systems in the troposphere are not merely synoptic-scale noise on a larger scale tropospheric response, but an integral part of the mechanism by which the state of the stratosphere impacts that of the troposphere.

Effect of ENSO phase on large-scale snow water equivalent distribution in a GCM

Understanding links between the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and snow would be useful for seasonal forecasting, but also for understanding natural variability and interpreting climate change predictions. Here, a 545-year run of the general circulation model HadCM3, with prescribed external forcings and fixed greenhouse gas concentrations, is used to explore the impact of ENSO on snow water equivalent (SWE) anomalies. In North America, positive ENSO events reduce the mean SWE and skew the distribution towards lower values, and vice versa during negative ENSO events. This is associated with a dipole SWE anomaly structure, with anomalies of opposite sign centered in western Canada and the central United States. In Eurasia, warm episodes lead to a more positively skewed distribution and the mean SWE is raised. Again, the opposite effect is seen during cold episodes. In Eurasia the largest anomalies are concentrated in the Himalayas. These correlations with February SWE distribution are seen to exist from the previous June-July-August (JJA) ENSO index onwards, and are weakly detected in 50-year subsections of the control run, but only a shifted North American response can be detected in the anaylsis of 40 years of ERA40 reanalysis data. The ENSO signal in SWE from the long run could still contribute to regional predictions although it would be a weak indicator only

On the generation mechanisms of short-scale unbalanced modes in rotating two-layer flows with vertical shear

We report on the results of a laboratory investigation using a rotating two-layer annulus experiment, which exhibits both large-scale vortical modes and short-scale divergent modes. A sophisticated visualization method allows us to observe the flow at very high spatial and temporal resolution. The balanced long-wavelength modes appear only when the Froude number is supercritical (i.e. $F\,{>}\,F_\mathrm{critical}\,{\equiv}\, \upi^2/2$), and are therefore consistent with generation by a baroclinic instability. The unbalanced short-wavelength modes appear locally in every single baroclinically unstable flow, providing perhaps the first direct experimental evidence that all evolving vortical flows will tend to emit freely propagating inertia–gravity waves. The short-wavelength modes also appear in certain baroclinically stable flows. We infer the generation mechanisms of the short-scale waves, both for the baro-clinically unstable case in which they co-exist with a large-scale wave, and for the baroclinically stable case in which they exist alone. The two possible mechanisms considered are spontaneous adjustment of the large-scale flow, and Kelvin–Helmholtz shear instability. Short modes in the baroclinically stable regime are generated only when the Richardson number is subcritical (i.e. $\hbox{\it Ri}\,{<}\,\hbox{\it Ri}_\mathrm{critical}\,{\equiv}\, 1$), and are therefore consistent with generation by a Kelvin–Helmholtz instability. We calculate five indicators of short-wave generation in the baroclinically unstable regime, using data from a quasi-geostrophic numerical model of the annulus. There is excellent agreement between the spatial locations of short-wave emission observed in the laboratory, and regions in which the model Lighthill/Ford inertia–gravity wave source term is large. We infer that the short waves in the baroclinically unstable fluid are freely propagating inertia–gravity waves generated by spontaneous adjustment of the large-scale flow.

Perturbation growth at the convective scale for CSIP IOP18

The Met Office Unified Model is run for a case observed during Intensive Observation Period 18 (IOP18) of the Convective Storms Initiation Project (CSIP). The aims are to identify the physical processes that lead to perturbation growth at the convective scale in response to model-state perturbations and to determine their sensitivity to the character of the perturbations. The case is strongly upper-level forced but with detailed mesoscale/convective-scale evolution that is dependent on smaller-scale processes. Potential temperature is perturbed within the boundary layer. The effects on perturbation growth of both the amplitude and typical scalelength of the perturbations are investigated and perturbations are applied either sequentially (every 30 min throughout the simulation) or at specific times. The direct effects (within one timestep) of the perturbations are to generate propagating Lamb and acoustic waves and produce generally small changes in cloud parameters and convective instability. In exceptional cases a perturbation at a specific gridpoint leads to switching of the diagnosed boundary-layer type or discontinuous changes in convective instability, through the generation or removal of a lid. The indirect effects (during the entire simulation) are changes in the intensity and location of precipitation and in the cloud size distribution. Qualitatively different behaviour is found for strong (1K amplitude) and weak (0.01K amplitude) perturbations, with faster growth after sunrise found only for the weaker perturbations. However, the overall perturbation growth (as measured by the root-mean-square error of accumulated precipitation) reaches similar values at saturation, regardless of the perturbation characterisation.

The relationship between diffuse spectral reflectance of the soil and its cation exchange capacity is scale-dependent

Diffuse reflectance spectroscopy (DRS) is increasingly being used to predict numerous soil physical, chemical and biochemical properties. However, soil properties and processes vary at different scales and, as a result, relationships between soil properties often depend on scale. In this paper we report on how the relationship between one such property, cation exchange capacity (CEC), and the DRS of the soil depends on spatial scale. We show this by means of a nested analysis of covariance of soils sampled on a balanced nested design in a 16 km × 16 km area in eastern England. We used principal components analysis on the DRS to obtain a reduced number of variables while retaining key variation. The first principal component accounted for 99.8% of the total variance, the second for 0.14%. Nested analysis of the variation in the CEC and the two principal components showed that the substantial variance components are at the > 2000-m scale. This is probably the result of differences in soil composition due to parent material. We then developed a model to predict CEC from the DRS and used partial least squares (PLS) regression do to so. Leave-one-out cross-validation results suggested a reasonable predictive capability (R2 = 0.71 and RMSE = 0.048 molc kg− 1). However, the results from the independent validation were not as good, with R2 = 0.27, RMSE = 0.056 molc kg− 1 and an overall correlation of 0.52. This would indicate that DRS may not be useful for predictions of CEC. When we applied the analysis of covariance between predicted and observed we found significant scale-dependent correlations at scales of 50 and 500 m (0.82 and 0.73 respectively). DRS measurements can therefore be useful to predict CEC if predictions are required, for example, at the field scale (50 m). This study illustrates that the relationship between DRS and soil properties is scale-dependent and that this scale dependency has important consequences for prediction of soil properties from DRS data

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.