999 resultados para Pseudo-Bayesian Design
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Estudi retrospectiu de les troballes ecogràfiques abdominals en 37 bebés menors de 5 mesos amb icterícia colestásica amb revisió de les dades clíniques, patológiques i d´imatge desde l´any 2000 al 2010. L´ecografia es l´estudi d´imatge inicial i es imprescindible distinguir entre les dues entitats més freqüents: atresia de vies biliars i hepatitis neonatal idiopàtica. Les troballes referides a la vesícula, arteria hepàtica i a les característiques del fetge van ser estadísticamente significatives. La valoració conjunta de les mateixes demostra que l´ecografia abdominal és una eina imprescindible per el diagnóstic de l´atresia de vies biliars.
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Chagas disease control strategies strongly depend on the triatomine vector species involved in Trypanosoma cruzi transmission within each area. Here we report the results of the identification of specimens belonging to various species of Triatominae captured in Ecuador (15 species from 17 provinces) and deposited in the entomological collections of the Catholic University of Ecuador (Quito), Instituto Oswaldo Cruz (Brazil), the Natural History Museum London (UK), the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (UK), the National Institute of Hygiene (Quito), and the Vozandes Hospital (Quito). A critical review of published information and new field records are presented. We analysed these data in relation to the life zones where triatomines occur (11 life zones, excluding those over 2,200 m altitude), and provide biogeographical maps for each species. These records are discussed in terms of epidemiological significance and design of control strategies. Findings relevant to the control of the main vector species are emphasised. Different lines of evidence suggest that Triatoma dimidiata is not native to Ecuador-Peru, and that synanthropic populations of Rhodnius ecuadoriensis in southern Ecuador-northern Peru might be isolated from their sylvatic conspecifics. Local eradication of T. dimidiata and these R. ecuadoriensis populations might therefore be attainable. However, the presence of a wide variety of native species indicates the necessity for a strong longitudinal surveillance system.
Design of a Control Slide for Cyanoacrylate Polymerization : Application to the CA-Bluestar Sequence
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Casework expercience has shown that, in some cases, long exposures of surfaces subjected to cyanoacrylate (CA) fuming had detrimental effects on the subsequent application of Bluestar. This study aimed to develop a control mechanism to monitor the amount of CA deposited prior to the subsequent treatment. A control slide bearing spots of sodium hydroxide (NaOH) of known concentrations and volume was designed and validated against both scanning electron microscopy (SEM) observations and latent print examiners' assessments of the quality of the developed marks. The control slide allows one to define three levels of development that were used to monitor the Bluestar reaction on depleting footwear marks left in diluted blood. The appropriate conditions for a successful application of both CA and Bluestar were determined.
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Time-expanded echolocation calls were recorded from 29 species of Neotropical bats in lowland moist tropical forest in Trinidad, West Indies with three aims (I) to describe the echolocation calls of the members of a diverse Neotropical bat community, especially members of the family Phyllostomidae, whose calls are not well documented (2) to investigate whether multivariate analysis of calls allows species and foraging guilds to be identified and (3) to evaluate the use of bat detectors in surveying the phyllostomids of Neotropical forests. The calls of 12 species of the family Phyllostomidae are described here for the first time and a total of 29 species, belonging to five families (Emballonuridae, Mormoopidae, Phyllostomidae, Molossidae and Vespertilionidae) were recorded Quadratic discriminant function analysis (DFA) was used to obtain classification rates for each one of 11 individual species and for six guilds (based on diet, foraging mode and habitat) comprising 26 species Overall classification rates were low compared to similar studies conducted in the Palaeotropics We suggest that this may be due to a combination of ecological plasticity for certain species and a loose relationship between echolocation call shape, fine-grained resource partitioning and resource acquisition in phyllostomids
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Significant progress has been made with regard to the quantitative integration of geophysical and hydrological data at the local scale. However, extending the corresponding approaches to the scale of a field site represents a major, and as-of-yet largely unresolved, challenge. To address this problem, we have developed downscaling procedure based on a non-linear Bayesian sequential simulation approach. The main objective of this algorithm is to estimate the value of the sparsely sampled hydraulic conductivity at non-sampled locations based on its relation to the electrical conductivity logged at collocated wells and surface resistivity measurements, which are available throughout the studied site. The in situ relationship between the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is described through a non-parametric multivariatekernel density function. Then a stochastic integration of low-resolution, large-scale electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data in combination with high-resolution, local-scale downhole measurements of the hydraulic and electrical conductivities is applied. The overall viability of this downscaling approach is tested and validated by comparing flow and transport simulation through the original and the upscaled hydraulic conductivity fields. Our results indicate that the proposed procedure allows obtaining remarkably faithful estimates of the regional-scale hydraulic conductivity structure and correspondingly reliable predictions of the transport characteristics over relatively long distances.
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Most of the Brazilian HIV-1 samples have been characterized based on the structural genes (env, gag and pol) and no data concerning the variability of the accessory genes such as nef have been available so far. Considering the role of the nef on virus biology and the inclusion of this region in some HIV/AIDS vaccine products under testing, the purpose of this study was to document the genetic diversity of the nef gene in third-four HIV-1 Brazilian samples previously subtyped based on the env C2-V3 region. Although only few non-subtype B samples have already been analyzed so far, the cytotoxic Tlymphocyte epitopes encoded in this region were relatively conserved among the subtypes, with some amino acid signatures mainly in the subtype C samples. Considering the increasing of the non-B HIV-1 subtypes worldwide, in special the subtype C, more data should be generated concerning the genetic and antigenic variability of these subtypes, as well as the study of the impact of such polymorphism in HIV/AIDS vaccine design and testing.
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Given the urgence of a new paradigm in wireless digital trasmission which should allow for higher bit rate, lower latency and tigher delay constaints, it has been proposed to investigate the fundamental building blocks that at the circuital/device level, will boost the change towards a more efficient network architecture, with high capacity, higher bandwidth and a more satisfactory end user experience. At the core of each transciever, there are inherently analog devices capable of providing the carrier signal, the oscillators. It is strongly believed that many limitations in today's communication protocols, could be relieved by permitting high carrier frequency radio transmission, and having some degree of reconfigurability. This led us to studying distributed oscillator architectures which work in the microwave range and possess wideband tuning capability. As microvave oscillators are essentially nonlinear devices, a full nonlinear analyis, synthesis, and optimization had to be considered for their implementation. Consequently, all the most used nonlinear numerical techniques in commercial EDA software had been reviewed. An application of all the aforementioned techniques has been shown, considering a systems of three coupled oscillator ("triple push" oscillator) in which the stability of the various oscillating modes has been studied. Provided that a certain phase distribution is maintained among the oscillating elements, this topology permits a rise in the output power of the third harmonic; nevertheless due to circuit simmetry, "unwanted" oscillating modes coexist with the intenteded one. Starting with the necessary background on distributed amplification and distributed oscillator theory, the design of a four stage reverse mode distributed voltage controlled oscillator (DVCO) using lumped elments has been presented. All the design steps have been reported and for the first time a method for an optimized design with reduced variations in the output power has been presented. Ongoing work is devoted to model a wideband DVCO and to implement a frequency divider.
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While mobile technologies can provide great personalized services for mobile users, they also threaten their privacy. Such personalization-privacy paradox are particularly salient for context aware technology based mobile applications where user's behaviors, movement and habits can be associated with a consumer's personal identity. In this thesis, I studied the privacy issues in the mobile context, particularly focus on an adaptive privacy management system design for context-aware mobile devices, and explore the role of personalization and control over user's personal data. This allowed me to make multiple contributions, both theoretical and practical. In the theoretical world, I propose and prototype an adaptive Single-Sign On solution that use user's context information to protect user's private information for smartphone. To validate this solution, I first proved that user's context is a unique user identifier and context awareness technology can increase user's perceived ease of use of the system and service provider's authentication security. I then followed a design science research paradigm and implemented this solution into a mobile application called "Privacy Manager". I evaluated the utility by several focus group interviews, and overall the proposed solution fulfilled the expected function and users expressed their intentions to use this application. To better understand the personalization-privacy paradox, I built on the theoretical foundations of privacy calculus and technology acceptance model to conceptualize the theory of users' mobile privacy management. I also examined the role of personalization and control ability on my model and how these two elements interact with privacy calculus and mobile technology model. In the practical realm, this thesis contributes to the understanding of the tradeoff between the benefit of personalized services and user's privacy concerns it may cause. By pointing out new opportunities to rethink how user's context information can protect private data, it also suggests new elements for privacy related business models.
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The tumor antigen NY-ESO-1 is a promising cancer vaccine target. We describe here a novel HLA-B7-restricted NY-ESO-1 epitope, encompassing amino acids 60-72 (APRGPHGGAASGL), which is naturally presented by melanoma cells. The tumor epitope bound to HLA-B7 by bulging outward from the peptide-binding cleft. This bulged epitope was not an impediment to T-cell recognition, however, because four of six HLA-B7(+) melanoma patients vaccinated with NY-ESO-1 ISCOMATRIX vaccine generated a potent T-cell response to this determinant. Moreover, the response to this epitope was immunodominant in three of these patients and, unlike the T-cell responses to bulged HLA class I viral epitopes, the responding T cells possessed a remarkably broad TCR repertoire. Interestingly, HLA-B7(+) melanoma patients who did not receive the NY-ESO-1 ISCOMATRIX vaccine rarely generated a spontaneous T-cell response to this cryptic epitope, suggesting a lack of priming of such T cells in the natural anti-NY-ESO-1 response, which may be corrected by vaccination. Together, our results reveal several surprising aspects of antitumor immunity and have implications for cancer vaccine design.
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The National Paediatric Hospital Development Board invited interested parties to a presentation introducing the Design Team Tendering Process on Monday 25 November. The presentation sets out the indicative details relating to the new children's hospital which is planned for the St James campus. Click here to download PDF 5.52MB Â
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We extend PML theory to account for information on the conditional moments up to order four, but without assuming a parametric model, to avoid a risk of misspecification of the conditional distribution. The key statistical tool is the quartic exponential family, which allows us to generalize the PML2 and QGPML1 methods proposed in Gourieroux et al. (1984) to PML4 and QGPML2 methods, respectively. An asymptotic theory is developed. The key numerical tool that we use is the Gauss-Freud integration scheme that solves a computational problem that has previously been raised in several fields. Simulation exercises demonstrate the feasibility and robustness of the methods [Authors]
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Immunotherapy is defined as the treatment of disease by inducing, enhancing, or suppressing an immune response, whereas preventive vaccination is intended to prevent the development of diseases in healthy subjects. Most successful prophylactic vaccines rely on the induction of high titers of neutralizing antibodies. It is generally thought that therapeutic vaccination requires induction of robust T-cell mediated immunity. The diverse array of potential or already in use immunotherapeutic and preventive agents all share the commonality of stimulating the immune system. Hence, measuring those vaccination-induced immune responses gives the earliest indication of vaccine take and its immune modulating effects.
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In occupational exposure assessment of airborne contaminants, exposure levels can either be estimated through repeated measurements of the pollutant concentration in air, expert judgment or through exposure models that use information on the conditions of exposure as input. In this report, we propose an empirical hierarchical Bayesian model to unify these approaches. Prior to any measurement, the hygienist conducts an assessment to generate prior distributions of exposure determinants. Monte-Carlo samples from these distributions feed two level-2 models: a physical, two-compartment model, and a non-parametric, neural network model trained with existing exposure data. The outputs of these two models are weighted according to the expert's assessment of their relevance to yield predictive distributions of the long-term geometric mean and geometric standard deviation of the worker's exposure profile (level-1 model). Bayesian inferences are then drawn iteratively from subsequent measurements of worker exposure. Any traditional decision strategy based on a comparison with occupational exposure limits (e.g. mean exposure, exceedance strategies) can then be applied. Data on 82 workers exposed to 18 contaminants in 14 companies were used to validate the model with cross-validation techniques. A user-friendly program running the model is available upon request.
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Background: The imatinib trough plasma concentration (C(min)) correlates with clinical response in cancer patients. Therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) of plasma C(min) is therefore suggested. In practice, however, blood sampling for TDM is often not performed at trough. The corresponding measurement is thus only remotely informative about C(min) exposure. Objectives: The objectives of this study were to improve the interpretation of randomly measured concentrations by using a Bayesian approach for the prediction of C(min), incorporating correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters, and to compare the predictive performance of this method with alternative approaches, by comparing predictions with actual measured trough levels, and with predictions obtained by a reference method, respectively. Methods: A Bayesian maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation method accounting for correlation (MAP-ρ) between pharmacokinetic parameters was developed on the basis of a population pharmacokinetic model, which was validated on external data. Thirty-one paired random and trough levels, observed in gastrointestinal stromal tumour patients, were then used for the evaluation of the Bayesian MAP-ρ method: individual C(min) predictions, derived from single random observations, were compared with actual measured trough levels for assessment of predictive performance (accuracy and precision). The method was also compared with alternative approaches: classical Bayesian MAP estimation assuming uncorrelated pharmacokinetic parameters, linear extrapolation along the typical elimination constant of imatinib, and non-linear mixed-effects modelling (NONMEM) first-order conditional estimation (FOCE) with interaction. Predictions of all methods were finally compared with 'best-possible' predictions obtained by a reference method (NONMEM FOCE, using both random and trough observations for individual C(min) prediction). Results: The developed Bayesian MAP-ρ method accounting for correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters allowed non-biased prediction of imatinib C(min) with a precision of ±30.7%. This predictive performance was similar for the alternative methods that were applied. The range of relative prediction errors was, however, smallest for the Bayesian MAP-ρ method and largest for the linear extrapolation method. When compared with the reference method, predictive performance was comparable for all methods. The time interval between random and trough sampling did not influence the precision of Bayesian MAP-ρ predictions. Conclusion: Clinical interpretation of randomly measured imatinib plasma concentrations can be assisted by Bayesian TDM. Classical Bayesian MAP estimation can be applied even without consideration of the correlation between pharmacokinetic parameters. Individual C(min) predictions are expected to vary less through Bayesian TDM than linear extrapolation. Bayesian TDM could be developed in the future for other targeted anticancer drugs and for the prediction of other pharmacokinetic parameters that have been correlated with clinical outcomes.