Assessment of the damage caused by flood rains and landslides in association with hurricane Michelle, october 2001: implications for economic, social and environmental development

Preface This study was prepared for the Government of Jamaica following the significant physical damage and economic losses that the country sustained as a result of flood rains associated with the development of Hurricane Michelle. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) submitted a request for assistance in undertaking a social, environmental and economic impact assessment to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on 14 November 2001. ECLAC responded with haste and modified its work plan to accommodate the request. A request for training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology to be delivered to personnel in Jamaica was deferred until the first quarter of 2002, as it was impossible to mount such an initiative at such short notice. This appraisal considers the consequences of the three instances of heavy rainfall that brought on the severe flooding and loss of property and livelihoods. The study was prepared by three members of the ECLAC Natural Disaster Damage Assessment Team over a period of one week in order to comply with the request that it be presented to the Prime Minister on 3 December 2001. The team has endeavoured to complete a workload that would take two weeks with a team of 15 members working assiduously with data already prepared in preliminary form by the national emergency stakeholders. There is need for training in disaster assessment as evidenced by the data collected by the Jamaican officials engaged in the exercise. Their efforts in the future will be more focused and productive after they have received training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology. This study undertakes a sectoral analysis leading to an overall assessment of the damage. It appraises the macroeconomic and social effects and proposes some guidelines for action including mitigating actions subsequent to the devastation caused by the weather system. The team is grateful for the efforts of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM), the associated government ministries and agencies, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), the Planning Institute of Jamaica and the Inter American Development Bank (IDB) for assistance rendered to the team. Indeed, it is the recommendation of the team that STATIN is poised to play a pivotal role in any disaster damage assessment and should be taken on board in that regard. The direct and indirect damages have been assessed in accordance with the methodology developed by ECLAC (1). The results presented are based on the mission's estimates. The study incorporates the information made available to the team and evidence collected in interviews and visits to affected locations. It is estimated that the magnitude of the losses exceeds the country's capacity to address reparations and mitigation without serious dislocation of its development trajectory. The government may wish to approach the international community for assistance in this regard. This appraisal is therefore designed to provide the government and the international community with guidelines for setting national and regional priorities in rehabilitation and reconstruction or resettlement programmes. A purely economic conception of the problem would be limited. A more integrated approach would have a human face and consider the alleviation of human suffering in the affected areas while attending to the economic and fiscal fallout of the disaster. Questions of improved physical planning, watershed management, early warning, emergency response and structural preparedness for evacuation and sheltering the vulnerable population are seen as important considerations for the post disaster phase. Special attention and priority should be placed on including sustainability and increased governance criteria in making social and productive investments, and on allocating resources to the reinforcing and retrofitting of vulnerable infrastructure, basic lifelines and services as part of the reconstruction and rehabilitation strategy. The Jamaican society and government face the opportunity of undertaking action with the benefit of revised paradigms, embarking on institutional, legal and structural reforms to reduce economic, social and environmental vulnerability. The history of flood devastation in the very areas of Portland and St. Mary shows a recurrence of flooding. Accounts of flooding from the earliest recorded accounts pertaining to 1837 are available. Recurrences in 1937, 1940, 1943 and 2001 indicate an ever-present probability of recurrence of similar events. The Government may wish to consider the probable consequences of a part of its population living in flood plains and address its position vis-à­¶is land use and the probability of yet another recurrence of flood rains. (1) ECLAC/IDNDR, Manual for estimating the Socio-Economic Effects of Natural Disasters, May,1999.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Health and Tourism sectors in Saint Lucia

This report analyses the agriculture, health and tourism sectors in Saint Lucia to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change in Saint Lucia. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An evaluation of various adaptation strategies for each sector was also undertaken using standard evaluation techniques. The key subsectors in agriculture are expected to have mixed impacts under the A2 and B2 scenarios. Banana, fisheries and root crop outputs are expected to fall with climate change, but tree crop and vegetable production are expected to rise. In aggregate, in every decade up to 2050, these sub-sectors combined are expected to experience a gain under climate change with the highest gains under A2. By 2050, the cumulative gain under A2 is calculated as approximately US$389.35 million and approximately US$310.58 million under B2, which represents 17.93% and 14.30% of the 2008 GDP respectively. This result was unexpected and may well be attributed to the unavailability of annual data that would have informed a more robust assessment. Additionally, costs to the agriculture sector due to tropical cyclones were estimated to be $6.9 million and $6.2 million under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. There are a number of possible adaptation strategies that can be employed by the agriculture sector. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the benefit-cost ratio are: (1) Designing and implementation of holistic water management plans (2) Establishment of systems of food storage and (3) Establishment of early warning systems. Government policy should focus on the development of these adaption options where they are not currently being pursued and strengthen those that have already been initiated, such as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in agricultural policy. The analysis of the health sector placed focus on gastroenteritis, schistosomiasis, ciguatera poisoning, meningococal meningitis, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases and malnutrition. The results obtained for the A2 and B2 scenarios demonstrate the potential for climate change to add a substantial burden to the health system in the future, a factor that will further compound the country’s vulnerability to other anticipated impacts of climate change. Specifically, it was determined that the overall Value of Statistical Lives impacts were higher under the A2 scenario than the B2 scenario. A number of adaptation cost assumptions were employed to determine the damage cost estimates using benefit-cost analysis. The benefit-cost analysis suggests that expenditure on monitoring and information provision would be a highly efficient step in managing climate change and subsequent increases in disease incidence. Various locations in the world have developed forecasting systems for dengue fever and other vector-borne diseases that could be mirrored and implemented. Combining such macro-level policies with inexpensive micro-level behavioural changes may have the potential for pre-empting the re-establishment of dengue fever and other vector-borne epidemic cycles in Saint Lucia. Although temperature has the probability of generating significant excess mortality for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, the power of temperature to increase mortality largely depends on the education of the population about the harmful effects of increasing temperatures and on the existing incidence of these two diseases. For these diseases it is also suggested that a mix of macro-level efforts and micro-level behavioural changes can be employed to relieve at least part of the threat that climate change poses to human health. The same principle applies for water and food-borne diseases, with the improvement of sanitation infrastructure complementing the strengthening of individual hygiene habits. The results regarding the tourism sector imply that the tourism climatic index was likely to experience a significant downward shift in Saint Lucia under the A2 as well as the B2 scenario, indicative of deterioration in the suitability of the island for tourism. It is estimated that this shift in tourism features could cost Saint Lucia about 5 times the 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. In addition to changes in climatic suitability for tourism, climate change is also likely to have important supply-side effects on species, ecosystems and landscapes. Two broad areas are: (1) coral reefs, due to their intimate link to tourism, and, (2) land loss, as most hotels tend to lie along the coastline. The damage related to coral reefs was estimated at US$3.4 billion (3.6 times GDP in 2009) under the A2 scenario and US$1.7 billion (1.6 times GDP in 2009) under the B2 scenario. The damage due to land loss arising from sea level rise was estimated at US$3.5 billion (3.7 times GDP) under the A2 scenario and US$3.2 billion (3.4 times GDP) under the B2 scenario. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 9 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. Using benefit-cost analyses 3 options with positive ratios were put forward: (1) increased recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (2) enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and, (3) deployment of artificial reefs or other fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit-cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits. These include the employment of an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climate realities.

Influence of late treatment on how chronic myeloid leukemia responds to imatinib

ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION: In Brazil, patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in the chronic phase were not given first-line imatinib treatment until 2008. Therefore, there was a long period of time between diagnosis and the initiation of imatinib therapy for many patients. This study aims to compare the major molecular remission (MMR) rates of early versus late imatinib therapy in chronic phase CML patients. METHODS: Between May 2002 and November 2007, 44 patients with chronic phase CML were treated with second-line imatinib therapy at the Hematology Unit of the Ophir Loyola Hospital (Belém, Pará, Brazil). BCR-ABL transcript levels were measured at approximately six-month intervals using quantitative polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS: The early treatment group presented a 60% probability of achieving MMR, while the probability for those patients who received late treatment was 40%. The probability of either not achieving MMR within one year of the initiation of imatinib therapy or losing MMR was higher in patients who received late treatment (79%), compared with patients who received early treatment (21%, odds ratio=5.75, P=0.012). The probability of maintaining MMR at 30 months of treatment was 80% in the early treatment group and 44% in the late treatment group (P=0.0005). CONCLUSIONS: For CML patients in the chronic phase who were treated with second-line imatinib therapy, the probability of achieving and maintaining MMR was higher in patients who received early treatment compared with those patients for whom the time interval between diagnosis and initiation of imatinib therapy was longer than one year.

Identification of duplicates of cassava accessions sampled on the North Region of Brazil using microsatellite markers

Duplicatas costumam ocorrer em bancos de germoplasma e a sua identificação é necessária para facilitar o manejo dos bancos ativos de germoplasma (BAGs) e diminuir custos de manutenção. O objetivo deste trabalho foi identificar duplicatas de mandioca determinadas previamente pela caracterização morfo-agronômica, em um BAG da Amazônia Oriental. Foram selecionados 36 acessos que se agrupavam em 13 grupos de similaridade morfo-agronômica para serem genotipados com 15 locos microssatélites. Todos os locos foram polimórficos, sendo obtidos 75 alelos, com média de cinco alelos por loco e H_E = 0,66. Foram encontrados 34 pares de genótipos que apresentaram perfis multilocos idênticos e a probabilidade de identidade genética foi de 1,1x10^-12 com probabilidade de exclusão de 99,9999%. Entre essas duplicatas, estão materiais coletados em épocas e locais diferentes, e com diferentes denominações e acessos com o mesmo nome coletados em diferentes locais e anos. O estudo identificou genótipos que vem sendo cultivados em diferentes locais e que vêm sendo mantidos pelos agricultores ao longo dos anos.

Prevalence of antibodies against Toxoplasma gondii and Neospora caninum in dogs

Toxoplasmosis and neosporosis are parasitic diseases of global importance. The present study had the objective to determine the influence of age, sex and breed in the prevalence of antibodies against both diseases in dogs from Brotas city, São Paulo State, Brazil. Blood samples of 342 dogs were collected, and the age, sex and breed of each animal were recorded. The serological diagnosis for toxoplasmosis and neosporosis were performed using the immunofluorescent antibody test (IFAT). The Fischer's test was used to calculate the association probability of the variables, with a = 5%. For toxoplasmosis the prevalence of antibodies was 26.9% (CI 95% 22.4-31.8%), and for neosporosis 4.97% (CI 95% 3.1-7.8%). The statistical analysis revealed a higher risk of infection for T. gondii in dogs with more than five years.

Seasonal variation in the fate of seeds under contrasting logging regimes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Identification of b-quark jets with the CMS experiment

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Development and characterization of microsatellite loci of microglanis cottoides (siluriformes: pseudopimelodidae) and cross-species amplification

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Application of two segmentation protocols during the processing of virtual images in rapid prototyping: ex vivo study with human dry mandibles

The aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of virtual three-dimensional (3D) reconstructions of human dry mandibles, produced from two segmentation protocols (outline only and all-boundary lines).Twenty virtual three-dimensional (3D) images were built from computed tomography exam (CT) of 10 dry mandibles, in which linear measurements between anatomical landmarks were obtained and compared to an error probability of 5 %.The results showed no statistically significant difference among the dry mandibles and the virtual 3D reconstructions produced from segmentation protocols tested (p = 0,24).During the designing of a virtual 3D reconstruction, both outline only and all-boundary lines segmentation protocols can be used.Virtual processing of CT images is the most complex stage during the manufacture of the biomodel. Establishing a better protocol during this phase allows the construction of a biomodel with characteristics that are closer to the original anatomical structures. This is essential to ensure a correct preoperative planning and a suitable treatment.

From west to east: Environmental influences on the rate and pathways of Polynesian colonization

The prime movers behind the prehistoric colonization of Remote Oceania, and in particular the large c. 2000-year temporal gap (i.e. long pause') seen between West and East Polynesia, has long been major point of interest in the Pacific. To address these events and the processes that may have led to the known chronological disparity of these diasporas, we present results from two different, but equally powerful, analytical tools which are used to examine Polynesian seafaring capabilities and trajectories. The first is a statistical model known as Seascape, which simulates voyages, while the second uses ease of eastward travel estimates based on land distribution and wind pattern analysis. These analyses were done with the goal of determining the potential role of environmental factors in the colonization process, particularly as they relate to the long pause. We show that the eastern boundary of West Polynesia, the limit of the initial colonization pulse, is marked by a discontinuity in land distribution, where the distances travelers would have to cross in order to reach islands further to the east become significantly larger. At the same time, in West Polynesia, the frequency and intensity of winds favorable to eastward displacement decrease continuously from west to east. As far as winds are concerned, eastward travel in West Polynesia is favored in the northern and southern areas and much more difficult across the central portion. Favorable winds have a clear seasonality, and eastward displacement along the northern area is much easier under El Nino conditions. Voyaging simulations show that intentional eastward voyages departing from Tonga and Samoa, when undertaken with vessels capable of sailing efficiently against the wind, afford a viable route toward several island groups in East Polynesia, with trips starting in Samoa having a higher probability of success.

Mechanical Evaluation of Four Narrow-Diameter Implant Systems

Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the survival probability of four narrow-diameter implant systems when subjected to fatigue loading. Materials and Methods: Seventy-two narrow-diameter implants to be restored with single-unit crowns were divided into four groups (n = 18): Astra Tech (3.5-mm diameter), with a standard connection (ASC); BioHorizon (3.4-mm diameter), with a standard connection (BSC); Intra-Lock (3.4-mm diameter), with a standard multilobular connection (ISC); and Intra-Lock (3.4-diameter), with a modified square connection (IMC). The corresponding abutments were screwed onto the implants, and standardized metal crowns (maxillary central incisors) were cemented and subjected to step-stress accelerated life testing in water. Use-level probability Weibull curves and reliability for 100,000 cycles at 150 and 200 N (90% two-sided confidence intervals) were calculated. Polarized light and scanning electron microscopes were used to access the failure modes. Results: The calculated survival probability for 100,000 cycles at 150 N was approximately 93% in group ASC, 98% in group BSC, 94% in group ISC, and 99% in group IMC. At 200 N, the survival rate was estimated to be approximately < 0.1% for ASC, 77% for BSC, 34% for ISC, and 93% for IMC. Abutment screw fracture was the main failure mode for all groups. Conclusions: Although the probability of survival was not significantly different among systems at a load of 150 N, a significant decrease was observed at 200 N for all groups except IMC.

Development and characterization of twenty-two polymorphic microsatellite markers for the leafcutter ant, Acromyrmex lundii, utilizing Illumina sequencing

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Motor profile of students with dyslexia

In the presence of developmental dyslexia, there is high probability of motor difficulties being present as well purposes: The purposes of this study were to characterize and compare the motor performance of students with dyslexia with students with good academic performance and to identify the presence of the DCD (developmental coordination disorder) co-occurring with developmental dyslexia. A total of 79 students participated in the research, both genders, from 8 to 11 years old, from 3rd to 5th grades, and were divided into Group I: 19 students with developmental dyslexia and Group II: 60 students with good academic performance. All the students were assessed using “The Bruininks-Oseretsky Test of Motor Proficiency” (second edition), to measure the motor skills and the pattern and differences between groups. The results of this study showed that the motor performance of Group II students was superior to the performance of students of Group I in almost all motor areas assessed but both groups performed less well than they should have for their chronological age. The results of this study indicate that occupational therapists, speech therapists and educators need to be aware of the presence of motor impairments and the need for early intervention in both the academic and clinical environments, in order to ensure that early identification and diagnosis of possible co-occurrences, such as DCD, and the impact on learning to guarantee more appropriate clinical and educational assistance for this population. This may also indicate that increased exposure to movement may be important to limit some of the secondary health consequences in children in Brazil.

Development of twenty-one polymorphic microsatellite markers for the fungus-growing ant, Mycocepurus goeldii (Formicidae: Attini), using Illumina paired-end genomic sequencing

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Inferences of body energy reserves on conception rate of suckled Zebu beef cows subjected to timed artificial insemination followed by natural mating

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)