969 resultados para Probability Density Function
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Estimates of abundance or density are essential for wildlife management and conservation. There are few effective density estimates for the Buff-throated Partridge Tetraophasis szechenyii, a rare and elusive high-mountain Galliform species endemic to western China. In this study, we used the temporary emigration N-mixture model to estimate density of this species, with data acquired from playback point count surveys around a sacred area based on indigenous Tibetan culture of protection of wildlife, in Yajiang County, Sichuan, China, during April–June 2009. Within 84 125-m radius points, we recorded 53 partridge groups during three repeats. The best model indicated that detection probability was described by covariates of vegetation cover type, week of visit, time of day, and weather with weak effects, and a partridge group was present during a sampling period with a constant probability. The abundance component was accounted for by vegetation association. Abundance was substantially higher in rhododendron shrubs, fir-larch forests, mixed spruce-larch-birch forests, and especially oak thickets than in pine forests. The model predicted a density of 5.14 groups/km², which is similar to an estimate of 4.7 – 5.3 groups/km² quantified via an intensive spot-mapping effort. The post-hoc estimate of individual density was 14.44 individuals/km², based on the estimated mean group size of 2.81. We suggest that the method we employed is applicable to estimate densities of Buff-throated Partridges in large areas. Given importance of a mosaic habitat for this species, local logging should be regulated. Despite no effect of the conservation area (sacred) on the abundance of Buff-throated Partridges, we suggest regulations linking the sacred mountain conservation area with the official conservation system because of strong local participation facilitated by sacred mountains in land conservation.
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The dynamical evolution of dislocations in plastically deformed metals is controlled by both deterministic factors arising out of applied loads and stochastic effects appearing due to fluctuations of internal stress. Such type of stochastic dislocation processes and the associated spatially inhomogeneous modes lead to randomness in the observed deformation structure. Previous studies have analyzed the role of randomness in such textural evolution but none of these models have considered the impact of a finite decay time (all previous models assumed instantaneous relaxation which is "unphysical") of the stochastic perturbations in the overall dynamics of the system. The present article bridges this knowledge gap by introducing a colored noise in the form of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck noise in the analysis of a class of linear and nonlinear Wiener and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes that these structural dislocation dynamics could be mapped on to. Based on an analysis of the relevant Fokker-Planck model, our results show that linear Wiener processes remain unaffected by the second time scale in the problem but all nonlinear processes, both Wiener type and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type, scale as a function of the noise decay time τ. The results are expected to ramify existing experimental observations and inspire new numerical and laboratory tests to gain further insight into the competition between deterministic and random effects in modeling plastically deformed samples.
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Tidal stream turbines could have several direct impacts upon pursuit-diving seabirds foraging within tidal stream environments (mean horizontal current speeds > 2 ms−1), including collisions and displacement. Understanding how foraging seabirds respond to temporally variable but predictable hydrodynamic conditions immediately around devices could identify when interactions between seabirds and devices are most likely to occur; information which would quantify the magnitude of potential impacts, and also facilitate the development of suitable mitigation measures. This study uses shore-based observational surveys and Finite Volume Community Ocean Model outputs to test whether temporally predictable hydrodynamic conditions (horizontal current speeds, water elevation, turbulence) influenced the density of foraging black guillemots Cepphus grylle and European shags Phalacrocorax aristotelis in a tidal stream environment in Orkney, United Kingdom, during the breeding season. These species are particularly vulnerable to interactions with devices due to their tendency to exploit benthic and epi-benthic prey on or near the seabed. The density of both species decreased as a function of horizontal current speeds, whereas the density of black guillemots also decreased as a function of water elevation. These relationships could be linked to higher energetic costs of dives in particularly fast horizontal current speeds (>3 ms−1) and deeper water. Therefore, interactions between these species and moving components seem unlikely at particularly high horizontal current speeds. Combining this information, with that on the rotation rates of moving components at lower horizontal current speeds, could be used to assess collision risk in this site during breeding seasons. It is also likely that moderating any device operation during both lowest water elevation and lowest horizontal current speeds could reduce the risk of collisions for these species in this site during this season. The approaches used in this study could have useful applications within Environmental Impact Assessments, and should be considered when assessing and mitigating negative impacts from specific devices within development sites.
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Scavenger receptor BI (SR-BI) is the major receptor for high-density lipoprotein (HDL)
cholesterol (HDL-C). In humans, high amounts of HDL-C in plasma are associated with a
lower risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Mice that have depleted Scarb1 (SR-BI
knockout mice) have markedly elevated HDL-C levels but, paradoxically, increased
atherosclerosis. The impact of SR-BI on HDL metabolism and CHD risk in humans remains
unclear. Through targeted sequencing of coding regions of lipid-modifying genes in 328
individuals with extremely high plasma HDL-C levels, we identified a homozygote for a lossof-function
variant, in which leucine replaces proline 376 (P376L), in SCARB1, the gene
encoding SR-BI. The P376L variant impairs posttranslational processing of SR-BI and
abrogates selective HDL cholesterol uptake in transfected cells, in hepatocyte-like cells
derived from induced pluripotent stem cells from the homozygous subject, and in mice.
Large population-based studies revealed that subjects who are heterozygous carriers of
the P376L variant have significantly increased levels of plasma HDL-C. P376L carriers have
a profound HDL-related phenotype and an increased risk of CHD (odds ratio = 1.79, which is
statistically significant).
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08
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The problem addressed concerns the determination of the average numberof successive attempts of guessing a word of a certain length consisting of letters withgiven probabilities of occurrence. Both first- and second-order approximations to a naturallanguage are considered. The guessing strategy used is guessing words in decreasing orderof probability. When word and alphabet sizes are large, approximations are necessary inorder to estimate the number of guesses. Several kinds of approximations are discusseddemonstrating moderate requirements regarding both memory and central processing unit(CPU) time. When considering realistic sizes of alphabets and words (100), the numberof guesses can be estimated within minutes with reasonable accuracy (a few percent) andmay therefore constitute an alternative to, e.g., various entropy expressions. For manyprobability distributions, the density of the logarithm of probability products is close to anormal distribution. For those cases, it is possible to derive an analytical expression for theaverage number of guesses. The proportion of guesses needed on average compared to thetotal number decreases almost exponentially with the word length. The leading term in anasymptotic expansion can be used to estimate the number of guesses for large word lengths.Comparisons with analytical lower bounds and entropy expressions are also provided.
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Our work focuses on experimental and theoretical studies aimed at establishing a fundamental understanding of the principal electrical and optical processes governing the operation of quantum dot solar cells (QDSC) and their feasibility for the realization of intermediate band solar cell (IBSC). Uniform performance QD solar cells with high conversion efficiency have been fabricated using carefully calibrated process recipes as the basis of all reliable experimental characterization. The origin for the enhancement of the short circuit current density (Jsc) in QD solar cells was carefully investigated. External quantum efficiency (EQE) measurements were performed as a measure of the below bandgap distribution of transition states. In this work, we found that the incorporation of self-assembled quantum dots (QDs) interrupts the lattice periodicity and introduce a greatly broadened tailing density of states extending from the bandedge towards mid-gap. A below-bandgap density of states (DOS) model with an extended Urbach tail has been developed. In particular, the below-bandgap photocurrent generation has been attributed to transitions via confined energy states and background continuum tailing states. Photoluminescence measurement is used to measure the energy level of the lowest available state and the coupling effect between QD states and background tailing states because it results from a non-equilibrium process. A basic I-V measurement reveals a degradation of the open circuit voltage (Voc) of QD solar cells, which is related to a one sub-bandgap photon absorption process followed by a direct collection of the generated carriers by the external circuit. We have proposed a modified Shockley-Queisser (SQ) model that predicts the degradation of Voc compared with a reference bulk device. Whenever an energy state within the forbidden gap can facilitate additional absorption, it can facilitate recombination as well. If the recombination is non-radiative, it is detrimental to solar cell performance. We have also investigated the QD trapping effects as deep level energy states. Without an efficient carrier extraction pathway, the QDs can indeed function as mobile carriers traps. Since hole energy levels are mostly connected with hole collection under room temperature, the trapping effect is more severe for electrons. We have tried to electron-dope the QDs to exert a repulsive Coulomb force to help improve the carrier collection efficiency. We have experimentally observed a 30% improvement of Jsc for 4e/dot devices compared with 0e/dot devices. Electron-doping helps with better carrier collection efficiency, however, we have also measured a smaller transition probability from valance band to QD states as a direct manifestation of the Pauli Exclusion Principle. The non-linear performance is of particular interest. With the availability of laser with on-resonance and off-resonance excitation energy, we have explored the photocurrent enhancement by a sequential two-photon absorption (2PA) process via the intermediate states. For the first time, we are able to distinguish the nonlinearity effect by 1PA and 2PA process. The observed 2PA current under off-resonant and on-resonant excitation comes from a two-step transition via the tailing states instead of the QD states. However, given the existence of an extended Urbach tail and the small number of photons available for the intermediate states to conduction band transition, the experimental results suggest that with the current material system, the intensity requirement for an observable enhancement of photocurrent via a 2PA process is much higher than what is available from concentrated sun light. In order to realize the IBSC model, a matching transition strength needs to be achieved between valance band to QD states and QD states to conduction band. However, we have experimentally shown that only a negligible amount of signal can be observed at cryogenic temperature via the transition from QD states to conduction band under a broadband IR source excitation. Based on the understanding we have achieved, we found that the existence of the extended tailing density of states together with the large mismatch of the transition strength from VB to QD and from QD to CB, has systematically put into question the feasibility of the IBSC model with QDs.
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Context. In February-March 2014, the MAGIC telescopes observed the high-frequency peaked BL Lac 1ES 1011+496 (z=0.212) in flaring state at very-high energy (VHE, E>100GeV). The flux reached a level more than 10 times higher than any previously recorded flaring state of the source. Aims. Description of the characteristics of the flare presenting the light curve and the spectral parameters of the night-wise spectra and the average spectrum of the whole period. From these data we aim at detecting the imprint of the Extragalactic Background Light (EBL) in the VHE spectrum of the source, in order to constrain its intensity in the optical band. Methods. We analyzed the gamma-ray data from the MAGIC telescopes using the standard MAGIC software for the production of the light curve and the spectra. For the constraining of the EBL we implement the method developed by the H.E.S.S. collaboration in which the intrinsic energy spectrum of the source is modeled with a simple function (< 4 parameters), and the EBL-induced optical depth is calculated using a template EBL model. The likelihood of the observed spectrum is then maximized, including a normalization factor for the EBL opacity among the free parameters. Results. The collected data allowed us to describe the flux changes night by night and also to produce di_erential energy spectra for all nights of the observed period. The estimated intrinsic spectra of all the nights could be fitted by power-law functions. Evaluating the changes in the fit parameters we conclude that the spectral shape for most of the nights were compatible, regardless of the flux level, which enabled us to produce an average spectrum from which the EBL imprint could be constrained. The likelihood ratio test shows that the model with an EBL density 1:07 (-0.20,+0.24)stat+sys, relative to the one in the tested EBL template (Domínguez et al. 2011), is preferred at the 4:6 σ level to the no-EBL hypothesis, with the assumption that the intrinsic source spectrum can be modeled as a log-parabola. This would translate into a constraint of the EBL density in the wavelength range [0.24 μm,4.25 μm], with a peak value at 1.4 μm of λF_ = 12:27^(+2:75)_ (-2:29) nW m^(-2) sr^(-1), including systematics.
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Water regimes in the Brazilian Cerrados are sensitive to climatological disturbances and human intervention. The risk that critical water-table levels are exceeded over long periods of time can be estimated by applying stochastic methods in modeling the dynamic relationship between water levels and driving forces such as precipitation and evapotranspiration. In this study, a transfer function-noise model, the so called PIRFICT-model, is applied to estimate the dynamic relationship between water-table depth and precipitation surplus/deficit in a watershed with a groundwater monitoring scheme in the Brazilian Cerrados. Critical limits were defined for a period in the Cerrados agricultural calendar, the end of the rainy season, when extremely shallow levels (< 0.5-m depth) can pose a risk to plant health and machinery before harvesting. By simulating time-series models, the risk of exceeding critical thresholds during a continuous period of time (e.g. 10 days) is described by probability levels. These simulated probabilities were interpolated spatially using universal kriging, incorporating information related to the drainage basin from a digital elevation model. The resulting map reduced model uncertainty. Three areas were defined as presenting potential risk at the end of the rainy season. These areas deserve attention with respect to water-management and land-use planning.
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215 p.
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Memory storage in the brain involves adjustment of the strength of existing synapses and formation of new neural networks. A key process underlying memory formation is synaptic plasticity, the ability of excitatory synapses to strengthen or weaken their connections in response to patterns of activity between their connected neurons. Synaptic plasticity is governed by the precise pattern of Ca²⁺ influx through postsynaptic N-methyl-D-aspartate-type glutamate receptors (NMDARs), which can lead to the activation of the small GTPases Ras and Rap. Differential activation of Ras and Rap acts to modulate synaptic strength by promoting the insertion or removal of 2-amino-3-(3-hydroxy-5-methyl-isoxazol-4-yl)propanoic acid receptors (AMPARs) from the synapse. Synaptic GTPase activating protein (synGAP) regulates AMPAR levels by catalyzing the inactivation of GTP-bound (active) Ras or Rap. synGAP is positioned in close proximity to the cytoplasmic tail regions of the NMDAR through its association with the PDZ domains of PSD-95. SynGAP’s activity is regulated by the prominent postsynaptic protein kinase, Ca²⁺/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II (CaMKII) and cyclin-dependent kinase 5 (CDK5), a known binding partner of CaMKII. Modulation of synGAP’s activity by phosphorylation may alter the ratio of active Ras to Rap in spines, thus pushing the spine towards the insertion or removal of AMPARs, subsequently strengthening or weakening the synapse. To date, all biochemical studies of the regulation of synGAP activity by protein kinases have utilized impure preparations of membrane bound synGAP. Here we have clarified the effects of phosphorylation of synGAP on its Ras and Rap GAP activities by preparing and utilizing purified, soluble recombinant synGAP, Ras, Rap, CaMKII, CDK5, PLK2, and CaM. Using mass spectrometry, we have confirmed the presence of previously identified CaMKII and CDK5 sites in synGAP, and have identified novel sites of phosphorylation by CaMKII, CDK5, and PLK2. We have shown that the net effect of phosphorylation of synGAP by CaMKII, CDK5, and PLK2 is an increase in its GAP activity toward HRas and Rap1. In contrast, there is no effect on its GAP activity toward Rap2. Additionally, by assaying the GAP activity of phosphomimetic synGAP mutants, we have been able to hypothesize the effects of CDK5 phosphorylation at specific sites in synGAP. In the course of this work, we also found, unexpectedly, that synGAP is itself a Ca²⁺/CaM binding protein. While Ca²⁺/CaM binding does not directly affect synGAP activity, it causes a conformational change in synGAP that increases the rate of its phosphorylation and exposes additional phosphorylation sites that are inaccessible in the absence of Ca²⁺/CaM.
The postsynaptic density (PSD) is an electron-dense region in excitatory postsynaptic neurons that contains a high concentration of glutamate receptors, cytoskeletal proteins, and associated signaling enzymes. Within the PSD, three major classes of scaffolding molecules function to organize signaling enzymes and glutamate receptors. PDZ domains present in the Shank and PSD-95 scaffolds families serve to physically link AMPARs and NMDARs to signaling molecules in the PSD. Because of the specificity and high affinity of PDZ domains for their ligands, I reasoned that these interacting pairs could provide the core components of an affinity chromatography system, including affinity resins, affinity tags, and elution agents. I show that affinity columns containing the PDZ domains of PSD-95 can be used to purify active PDZ domain-binding proteins to very high purity in a single step. Five heterologously expressed neuronal proteins containing endogenous PDZ domain ligands (NMDAR GluN2B subunit Tail, synGAP, neuronal nitric oxide synthase PDZ domain, cysteine rich interactor of PDZ three and cypin) were purified using PDZ domain resin, with synthetic peptides having the sequences of cognate PDZ domain ligands used as elution agents. I also show that conjugation of PDZ domain-related affinity tags to Proteins Of Interest (POIs) that do not contain endogenous PDZ domains or ligands does not alter protein activity and enables purification of the POIs on PDZ domain-related affinity resins.
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Apresenta·se um breve resumo histórico da evolução da amostragem por transectos lineares e desenvolve·se a sua teoria. Descrevemos a teoria de amostragem por transectos lineares, proposta por Buckland (1992), sendo apresentados os pontos mais relevantes, no que diz respeito à modelação da função de detecção. Apresentamos uma descrição do princípio CDM (Rissanen, 1978) e a sua aplicação à estimação de uma função densidade por um histograma (Kontkanen e Myllymãki, 2006), procedendo à aplicação de um exemplo prático, recorrendo a uma mistura de densidades. Procedemos à sua aplicação ao cálculo do estimador da probabilidade de detecção, no caso dos transectos lineares e desta forma estimar a densidade populacional de animais. Analisamos dois casos práticos, clássicos na amostragem por distâncias, comparando os resultados obtidos. De forma a avaliar a metodologia, simulámos vários conjuntos de observações, tendo como base o exemplo das estacas, recorrendo às funções de detecção semi-normal, taxa de risco, exponencial e uniforme com um cosseno. Os resultados foram obtidos com o programa DISTANCE (Thomas et al., in press) e um algoritmo escrito em linguagem C, cedido pelo Professor Doutor Petri Kontkanen (Departamento de Ciências da Computação, Universidade de Helsínquia). Foram desenvolvidos programas de forma a calcular intervalos de confiança recorrendo à técnica bootstrap (Efron, 1978). São discutidos os resultados finais e apresentadas sugestões de desenvolvimentos futuros. ABSTRACT; We present a brief historical note on the evolution of line transect sampling and its theoretical developments. We describe line transect sampling theory as proposed by Buckland (1992), and present the most relevant issues about modeling the detection function. We present a description of the CDM principle (Rissanen, 1978) and its application to histogram density estimation (Kontkanen and Myllymãki, 2006), with a practical example, using a mixture of densities. We proceed with the application and estimate probability of detection and animal population density in the context of line transect sampling. Two classical examples from the literature are analyzed and compared. ln order to evaluate the proposed methodology, we carry out a simulation study based on a wooden stakes example, and using as detection functions half normal, hazard rate, exponential and uniform with a cosine term. The results were obtained using program DISTANCE (Thomas et al., in press), and an algorithm written in C language, kindly offered by Professor Petri Kontkanen (Department of Computer Science, University of Helsinki). We develop some programs in order to estimate confidence intervals using the bootstrap technique (Efron, 1978). Finally, the results are presented and discussed with suggestions for future developments.
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Visando obter subsídios para um estudo da qualidade da água em tanques de piscicultura, realizou-se um experimento de 166 dias com uma espécie nativa, pacu (Piaractus mesopotamicus). Nos tanques foram testados dois níveis diferentes de proteína na dieta (16% e 34% de proteína bruta) e três densidades de estocagem (0,25; 0,50 e 0,77 peixes/m²). Dos resultados obtidos foi observado que a interação entre a densidade de estocagem e a duração do experimento interferiram nas variáveis bicarbonato e alcalinidade e a interação entre a densidade de estocagem e a porcentagem de proteína interferiram nas concentrações de CO2 livre e total, condutividade e pH (P < 0,05). A temperatura da água nos tanques variou significativamente ao longo do período estudado (P < 0,05), diminuindo gradativamente do verão para o inverno. Não houve diferença significativa no tempo de residência da água nos tanques (P > 0,05) durante a duração do experimento. Os demais parâmetros não sofreram interferência dos tratamentos ao longo do período de estudo.
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We measured the distribution in absolute magnitude - circular velocity space for a well-defined sample of 199 rotating galaxies of the Calar Alto Legacy Integral Field Area Survey (CALIFA) using their stellar kinematics. Our aim in this analysis is to avoid subjective selection criteria and to take volume and large-scale structure factors into account. Using stellar velocity fields instead of gas emission line kinematics allows including rapidly rotating early-type galaxies. Our initial sample contains 277 galaxies with available stellar velocity fields and growth curve r-band photometry. After rejecting 51 velocity fields that could not be modelled because of the low number of bins, foreground contamination, or significant interaction, we performed Markov chain Monte Carlo modelling of the velocity fields, from which we obtained the rotation curve and kinematic parameters and their realistic uncertainties. We performed an extinction correction and calculated the circular velocity v_circ accounting for the pressure support of a given galaxy. The resulting galaxy distribution on the M-r - v(circ) plane was then modelled as a mixture of two distinct populations, allowing robust and reproducible rejection of outliers, a significant fraction of which are slow rotators. The selection effects are understood well enough that we were able to correct for the incompleteness of the sample. The 199 galaxies were weighted by volume and large-scale structure factors, which enabled us to fit a volume-corrected Tully-Fisher relation (TFR). More importantly, we also provide the volume-corrected distribution of galaxies in the M_r - v_circ plane, which can be compared with cosmological simulations. The joint distribution of the luminosity and circular velocity space densities, representative over the range of -20 > M_r > -22 mag, can place more stringent constraints on the galaxy formation and evolution scenarios than linear TFR fit parameters or the luminosity function alone.
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The vapor pressure of four liquid 1H,1H-perfluoroalcohols (CF3(CF2)n(CH2)OH, n ¼ 1, 2, 3, 4), often called odd-fluorotelomer alcohols, was measured as a function of temperature between 278 K and 328 K. Liquid densities were also measured for a temperature range between 278 K and 353 K. Molar enthalpies of vaporization were calculated from the experimental data. The results are compared with data from the literature for other perfluoroalcohols as well as with the equivalent hydrogenated alcohols. The results were modeled and interpreted using molecular dynamics simulations and the GC-SAFT-VR equation of state.