Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Primary production, chlorophyll, and zooplankton volumes in the tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Between 1 October and 17 December 1955 investigations of the physical, chemical and biological oceanography of the Eastern Pacific Ocean in a region bounded approximately by 30° N. latitude, 9° S. latitude, 120° W. longitude and the mainland coast were conducted from the vessels Horizon and Spencer F. Baird of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography of the University of California. These were part of a cooperative operation, designated for convenience by the code name "Eastropic," in which a vessel of the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service worked, during this same period, further west and a vessel of the Peruvian Navy worked further south, offshore from Peru. A vessel of the California State Fisheries Laboratory also conducted certain sub-surface tuna fishing operations and other studies in the same general region as the Scripps vessels. In addition to carrying out a number of special studies related to particular oceanographic features, the Scripps vessels occupied a considerable number of hydrographic stations. The locations of these stations, at each of which were made net-hauls for zooplankton, are shown in Figure 4 and Tables 2 and 3. At some of the hydrographic stations, and in Some places between stations, there were made from the Spencer F. Baird measurements of chlorophyll "a" and of primary production (by the C14 technique), both in situ and in a shipboard incubator. The purpose of this paper is to report on the results of these biological observations. SPANISH: Entre el 1° de octubre y el 17 de diciembre de 1955, a bordo de los barcos Horizon y Spencer F. Baird) de la Institución Scripps de Oceanografía de la Universidad de California, se hicieron investigaciones sobre la oceanografía física, química y biológica del Océano Pacífico Oriental, en una región limitada aproximadamente por los 30° N. de latitud, 9° S. de latitud, 120° O. de longitud y la costa continental. Estas investigaciones fueron parte de una operación que se realizó cooperativamente y a la que se convino darle el nombre codificado de "Eastropic". En ella, durante el mismo período, una embarcación del Servicio de Pesca y Vida Silvestre de los Estados Unidos (U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service) trabajó más hacia el oeste, y un barco de la armada peruana más hacia el sur, frente a la costa del Perú. También colaboró una nave del Laboratorio de Pesquerías del Estado de California (California State Fisheries Laboratory), realizando algunas operaciones de pesca de atún en aguas subsuperficiales, y otros estudios en la misma región general que recorrieron las embarcaciones de Scripps. Además de efectuar estudios especiales relacionados con las caracteristicas oceanográficas particulares de la región, las naves de Scripps establecieron un buen número de estaciones hidrográficas. La localización de estas estaciones se indica en la Figura 4 y en las Tablas 2 y 3; en cada una de ellas se hicieron rastreos con redes planctónicas para recoger muestras de zooplancton. En algunas de las estaciones hidrográficas, así como en algunos lugares entre estaciones, en el Spencer F. Baird se hicieron mediciones de la clorofila "a" y de la producción primaria (mediante la técnica del C14), tanto in situ como en una incubadora instalada a bordo. El propósito del presente trabajo es dar a conocer los resultados de estas observaciones biológicas. (PDF contains 44 pages.)

General review of the Japanese tuna long-line fishery in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean 1956-1962

ENGLISH: This paper constitutes a study of the fishery by Japanese long-line vessels in the area to the eastward of longitude 130°W, which was initiated at the western margin of this region in late 1956 and early 1957, and which has expanded fairly quickly eastward through 1962. The major part of the data was collected by the Nankai Regional Fisheries Research Laboratory (NRFRL) from fishing vessels landing at Tokyo and Yaizu and by the Kanagawa Perfectural Fisheries Experimental Station from fishing vessels landing at Misaki. SPANISH: Este trabajo constituye un estudio de la pesquería efectuada por los barcos Japoneses de palangre en el área hacia el este de los 130°W de longitud, que fue iniciada en el margen occidental de esta región a fines de 1956 y principios de 1957, y que se ha expandido bastante rápidamente hacia el este a través de 1962. (PDF contains 158 pages.)

Failure detectors and communication efficiency in the crash and general omisión failure models

122 p.

The South Atlantic Alliance: A southeastern U.S. state Governors initiative to address opportunities and challenges embodied in the region's coastal and ocean domain

The pressures placed on the natural, environmental, economic, and cultural sectors from continued growth, population shifts, weather and climate, and environmental quality are increasing exponentially in the southeastern U.S. region. Our growing understanding of the relationship of humans with the marine environment is leading us to explore new ecosystem-based approaches to coastal management, marine resources planning, and coastal adaptation that engages multiple state jurisdictions. The urgency of the situation calls for coordinated regional actions by the states, in conjunction with supporting partners and leveraging a diversity of resources, to address critical issues in sustaining our coastal and ocean ecosystems and enhancing the quality of life of our citizens. The South Atlantic Alliance (www.southatlanticalliance.org) was formally established on October 19, 2009 to “implement science-based policies and solutions that enhance and protect the value of coastal and ocean resources of the southeastern United States which support the region's culture and economy now and for future generations.” The Alliance, which includes North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, and Florida, will provide a regional mechanism for collaborating, coordinating, and sharing information in support of resource sustainability; improved regional alignment; cooperative planning and leveraging of resources; integrated research, observations, and mapping; increased awareness of the challenges facing the South Atlantic region; and inclusiveness and integration at all levels. Although I am preparing and presenting this overview of the South Atlantic Alliance and its current status, there are a host of representatives from agencies within the four states, universities, NGOs, and ongoing southeastern regional ocean and coastal programs that are contributing significant time, expertise, and energy to the success of the Alliance; information presented herein and to be presented in my oral presentation was generated by the collaborative efforts of these professionals. I also wish to acknowledge the wisdom and foresight of the Governors of the four states in establishing this exciting regional ocean partnership. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Violence in the Medieval Church before the First Crusade

The attitude of the medieval church towards violence before the First Crusade in 1095 underwent a significant institutional evolution, from the peaceful tradition of the New Testament and the Roman persecution, through the prelate-led military campaigns of the Carolingian period and the Peace of God era. It would be superficially easy to characterize this transformation as the pragmatic and entirely secular response of a growing power to the changing world. However, such a simplification does not fully do justice to the underlying theology. While church leaders from the 5th Century to the 11th had vastly different motivations and circumstances under which to develop their responses to a variety of violent activities, the teachings of Augustine of Hippo provided a unifying theme. Augustine’s just war theology, in establishing which conflicts are acceptable in the eyes of God, focused on determining whether a proper causa belli or basis for war exists, and then whether a legitimate authority declares and leads the war. Augustine masterfully integrated aspects of the Old and New Testaments to create a lasting and compelling case for his definition of justified violence. Although at different times and places his theology has been used to support a variety of different attitudes, the profound influence of his work on the medieval church’s evolving position on violence is clear.

Formal methods in the foundations of science

The intent of this study is to provide formal apparatus which facilitates the investigation of problems in the methodology of science. The introduction contains several examples of such problems and motivates the subsequent formalism.

A general definition of a formal language is presented, and this definition is used to characterize an individual’s view of the world around him. A notion of empirical observation is developed which is independent of language. The interplay of formal language and observation is taken as the central theme. The process of science is conceived as the finding of that formal language that best expresses the available experimental evidence.

To characterize the manner in which a formal language imposes structure on its universe of discourse, the fundamental concepts of elements and states of a formal language are introduced. Using these, the notion of a basis for a formal language is developed as a collection of minimal states distinguishable within the language. The relation of these concepts to those of model theory is discussed.

An a priori probability defined on sets of observations is postulated as a reflection of an individual’s ontology. This probability, in conjunction with a formal language and a basis for that language, induces a subjective probability describing an individual’s conceptual view of admissible configurations of the universe. As a function of this subjective probability, and consequently of language, a measure of the informativeness of empirical observations is introduced and is shown to be intuitively plausible – particularly in the case of scientific experimentation.

The developed formalism is then systematically applied to the general problems presented in the introduction. The relationship of scientific theories to empirical observations is discussed and the need for certain tacit, unstatable knowledge is shown to be necessary to fully comprehend the meaning of realistic theories. The idea that many common concepts can be specified only by drawing on knowledge obtained from an infinite number of observations is presented, and the problems of reductionism are examined in this context.

A definition of when one formal language can be considered to be more expressive than another is presented, and the change in the informativeness of an observation as language changes is investigated. In this regard it is shown that the information inherent in an observation may decrease for a more expressive language.

The general problem of induction and its relation to the scientific method are discussed. Two hypotheses concerning an individual’s selection of an optimal language for a particular domain of discourse are presented and specific examples from the introduction are examined.

1. Ultrasonic studies of binary liquid structure in the critical region. Theory and experiment for the 2,6-lutidine/water system. 2. Hartree-Fock calculations of electric polarizabilities of some simple atoms and molecules, and their practicality. 3. Calculation of vibrational transition probabilities in collinear atom-diatom and diatom-diatom collisions with Lennard-Jones interaction

Part 1. Many interesting visual and mechanical phenomena occur in the critical region of fluids, both for the gas-liquid and liquid-liquid transitions. The precise thermodynamic and transport behavior here has some broad consequences for the molecular theory of liquids. Previous studies in this laboratory on a liquid-liquid critical mixture via ultrasonics supported a basically classical analysis of fluid behavior by M. Fixman (e. g., the free energy is assumed analytic in intensive variables in the thermodynamics)--at least when the fluid is not too close to critical. A breakdown in classical concepts is evidenced close to critical, in some well-defined ways. We have studied herein a liquid-liquid critical system of complementary nature (possessing a lower critical mixing or consolute temperature) to all previous mixtures, to look for new qualitative critical behavior. We did not find such new behavior in the ultrasonic absorption ascribable to the critical fluctuations, but we did find extra absorption due to chemical processes (yet these are related to the mixing behavior generating the lower consolute point). We rederived, corrected, and extended Fixman's analysis to interpret our experimental results in these more complex circumstances. The entire account of theory and experiment is prefaced by an extensive introduction recounting the general status of liquid state theory. The introduction provides a context for our present work, and also points out problems deserving attention. Interest in these problems was stimulated by this work but also by work in Part 3.

Part 2. Among variational theories of electronic structure, the Hartree-Fock theory has proved particularly valuable for a practical understanding of such properties as chemical binding, electric multipole moments, and X-ray scattering intensity. It also provides the most tractable method of calculating first-order properties under external or internal one-electron perturbations, either developed explicitly in orders of perturbation theory or in the fully self-consistent method. The accuracy and consistency of first-order properties are poorer than those of zero-order properties, but this is most often due to the use of explicit approximations in solving the perturbed equations, or to inadequacy of the variational basis in size or composition. We have calculated the electric polarizabilities of H₂, He, Li, Be, LiH, and N₂ by Hartree-Fock theory, using exact perturbation theory or the fully self-consistent method, as dictated by convenience. By careful studies on total basis set composition, we obtained good approximations to limiting Hartree-Fock values of polarizabilities with bases of reasonable size. The values for all species, and for each direction in the molecular cases, are within 8% of experiment, or of best theoretical values in the absence of the former. Our results support the use of unadorned Hartree-Pock theory for static polarizabilities needed in interpreting electron-molecule scattering data, collision-induced light scattering experiments, and other phenomena involving experimentally inaccessible polarizabilities.

Part 3. Numerical integration of the close-coupled scattering equations has been carried out to obtain vibrational transition probabilities for some models of the electronically adiabatic H₂-H₂ collision. All the models use a Lennard-Jones interaction potential between nearest atoms in the collision partners. We have analyzed the results for some insight into the vibrational excitation process in its dependence on the energy of collision, the nature of the vibrational binding potential, and other factors. We conclude also that replacement of earlier, simpler models of the interaction potential by the Lennard-Jones form adds very little realism for all the complication it introduces. A brief introduction precedes the presentation of our work and places it in the context of attempts to understand the collisional activation process in chemical reactions as well as some other chemical dynamics.

Creating dangerously: literature as an instrument of resistance in the works of Edwidge Danticat

O objetivo desta dissertação é discutir o lugar que o fazer literário ocupa no processo de resistência à poderes hegemônicos. Como fontes primárias centrais, foram escolhidos o romance histórico The Farming of Bones (1998) e a narrativa autobiográfica Brother, Im Dying (2007), ambos escritos pela autora haitiana-americana Edwidge Danticat. Em The Farming of Bones, Danticat reconstrói ficcionalmente o trágico e obscuro episódio ocorrido em 1937 quando o então ditador da República Dominicana, Rafael Trujillo, ordenou o extermínio de todos os haitianos que residiam e trabalhavam em cidades dominicanas próximas à fronteira com o Haiti. O silêncio por parte dos governos de ambos os países em torno do massacre ainda perdura. A publicação do romance histórico de Danticat 61 anos após tal ato de terrorismo de Estado se torna, desta forma, exemplo de como o fazer literário e o fazer histórico podem fundir-se. Em Brother, Im Dying, Danticat narra a história da vida e da morte de suas duas figuras paternas, seu pai Andre (Mira) Dantica e seu tio Joseph Dantica (que a criou dos 4 aos 12 anos, no Haiti). Joseph, sobrevivente de um câncer de laringe, foi pastor batista e fundador de uma igreja e uma escola no Haiti. Morreu dois dias depois de pedir asilo político nos EUA e ser detido na prisão Krome, em Miami. Mira, que migrara no início da ditadura de François Duvalier para os EUA, onde trabalhou como taxista, morreu vítima de fibrose pulmonar poucos meses depois de seu irmão mais velho. Edwidge Danticat recebeu a notícia de que o quadro de seu pai era irreversível no mesmo dia em que descobriu que está grávida de sua primeira filha. Com uma escrita que abrange tanto a narrativa de si quanto a narrativa do outro, além das esferas públicas e privadas, Danticat cria em Brother, Im Dying um locus de fazer auto/biográfico que dialoga com questões de diáspora, identidade cultural e memória. Os ensaios publicados em Create Dangerously (2010) e as várias entrevistas concedidas por Danticat também reforçam meu argumento que Edwidge Danticat exerce seu papel de artista engajada através de seu fazer principalmente, mas não exclusivamente literário. Desta forma, a autora constrói uma possibilidade de resistência ao discurso hegemônico que opera tanto em seu país de origem quanto em seu país de residência.

Variations in eastern North Pacific demersal fish biomass based on the U.S. west coast groundfish bottom trawl survey (2003–2010)

In response to declining biomass of Northeast Pacific groundfish in the late 1990s and to improve the scientific basis for management of the fishery, the Northwest Fisheries Science Center standardized and enhanced their annual bottom trawl survey in 2003. The survey was expanded to include the entire area along the U.S. west coast at depths of 55–1280 m. Coast-wide biomass and species richness significantly decreased during the first eight years (2003–10) of this fishery-independent survey. We observed an overall tendency toward declining biomass for 62 dominant taxa combined (fishery target and nontarget species) and four of seven subgroups (including cartilaginous fish, flatfishes, shelf rockfishes, and other shelf species), despite increasing or variable biomass trends in individual species. These decreases occurred during a period of reduced catch for groundfish along the shelf and upper slope regions relative to historical rates. We used information from multiple stock assessments to aggregate species into three groups: 1) with strong recruitment, 2) without strong recruitment in 1999, and 3) with unknown recruitment level. For each group, we evaluated whether declining biomass was primarily related to depletion (using year as a proxy) or environmental factors (i.e., variation in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation). According to Akaike’s information criterion, changes in aggregate biomass for species with strong recruitment were more closely related to year, whereas those with no strong recruitment were more closely related to climate. The significant decline in biomass for species without strong recruitment confirms that factors other than depletion of the exceptional 1999 year class may be responsible for the observed decrease in biomass along the U.S. west coast.

Re-estimation of small-scale fishery catches for U.S. flag-associated island areas in the western Pacific: the last 50 years

Nearshore fisheries in the tropical Pacific play an important role, both culturally and as a reliable source of food security, but often remain under-reported in statistics, leading to undervaluation of their importance to communities. We re-estimated nonpelagic catches for Guam and the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI), and summarize previous work for American Samoa for 1950−2002. For all islands combined, catches declined by 77%, contrasting with increasing trends indicated by reported data. For individual island entities, re-estima-tion suggested declines of 86%, 54%, and 79% for Guam, CNMI, and American Samoa, respectively. Except for Guam, reported data primarily represented commercial catches, and hence under-represented contributions by subsistence and recreational fisheries. Guam’s consistent use of creel surveys for data collection resulted in the most reliable reported catches for any of the islands considered. Our re-estimation makes the scale of under-reporting of total catches evident, and provides valuable baselines of likely historic patterns in fisheries catches.

Human Dimensions of Marine Fisheries: Using GIS to Illustrate Land-Sea Connections in the Northeast U.S. Herring, Clupea harengus, Fishery

Geographic Information Systems can help improve ocean literacy and inform our understanding of the human dimensions of marine resource use. This paper describes a pilot project where GIS is used to illustrate the connections between fish stocks and the social, cultural, and economic components of the fishery on land. This method of presenting and merging qualitative and quantitative data represents a new approach to assist fishery managers, participants, policy-makers, and other stakeholders in visualizing an often confusing and poorly understood web of interactions. The Atlantic herring fishery serves as a case study and maps from this pilot project are presented and methods reviewed.

Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Sea Turtles in the Western North Atlantic and the U.S. Gulf of Mexico from Marine Recreational Fishery Statistics Survey (MRFSS)

Systematic surveys, along with opportunistic sightings, have provided important information on sea turtle (Cheloniidae and Dermochelydae) distributions, knowledge which can help reduce the risk of harmful human interaction. In 1991 and 1992, the Marine Recreational Fishery Sta- tistics Survey (MRFSS) of the National Ma- rine Fisheries Service, NOAA, provided a unique opportunity to gain additional, synoptic information on the spatial and temporal distribution of sea turtles along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts by asking recreational anglers if they had observed a sea turtle on their fishing trip. During the spring and summer months of those years, as water temperatures warmed, the MRFSS documented an increase in sea turtle sightings in inshore waters and in a northward direction along the U.S. Atlantic Coast and in a westward direction along the northern Gulf of Mexico. This pattern reversed in the late summer and fall months as water temperatures cooled, with sea turtles concentrating along Georgia and both coasts of Florida. Although the MRFSS did not provide species or size composition of sea turtles sighted, and effort varied depending upon location of fishing activity and time of year anglers were queried, it did provide an additional and useful means of ascertaining spatial and temporal distributions of sea turtles along these coasts.