Secondary production of sandy beach macrofauna: An evaluation of predictive models

During the last three decades, several predictive models have been developed to estimate the somatic production of macroinvertebrates. Although the models have been evaluated for their ability to assess the production of macrobenthos in different marine ecosystems, these approaches have not been applied specifically to sandy beach macrofauna and may not be directly applicable to this transitional environment. Hence, in this study, a broad literature review of sandy beach macrofauna production was conducted and estimates obtained with cohort-based and size-based methods were collected. The performance of nine models in estimating the production of individual populations from the sandy beach environment, evaluated for all taxonomic groups combined and for individual groups separately, was assessed, comparing the production predicted by the models to the estimates obtained from the literature (observed production). Most of the models overestimated population production compared to observed production estimates, whether for all populations combined or more specific taxonomic groups. However, estimates by two models developed by Cusson and Bourget provided best fits to measured production, and thus represent the best alternatives to the cohort-based and size-based methods in this habitat. The consistent performance of one of these Cusson and Bourget models, which was developed for the macrobenthos of sandy substrate habitats (C&B-SS), shows that the performance of a model does not depend on whether it was developed for a specific taxonomic group. Moreover, since some widely used models (e.g., the Robertson model) show very different responses when applied to the macrofauna of different marine environments (e.g., sandy beaches and estuaries), prior evaluation of these models is essential.

Social Skills and Psychological Disorders: Converging and Criterion-Related Validity for YSR and IHSA-Del-Prette in Adolescents at Risk

This study evaluated indexes of converging and criterion-related validity for the Social Skills Inventory for Adolescents (IHSA-Del-Prette) and the Youth Self-Report (YSR) in two samples: one referring to clinical service (CLIN), with 28 adolescents (64.3% boys), 11 through 17 years old (M = 13.75; SD = 1.74), and the other referring to a psycho-educational program (PME = 46.2%), mainly composed of boys (91.7%) aged 13 through 17 (M = 15.33; SD = 1.47). Both samples completed the two inventories. Results showed a high incidence of psychological disorders in both samples (between 4% and 79% in the borderline or clinical range on YSR scales) and accentuated deficits in the general and subscale scores of IHSA-Del-Prette, especially on the frequency scale (25% to 58%). The correlations between the instruments in the two groups supported criterion-related and converging validity. Some issues concerning the differences between the samples and about the construct of social competence, underlying these inventories, are discussed. Key words authors:

HER-2, p53, p21 and hormonal receptors proteins expression as predictive factors of response and prognosis in locally advanced breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant docetaxel plus epirubicin combination

Abstract Background Neoadjuvant chemotherapy has been considered the standard care in locally advanced breast cancer. However, about 20% of the patients do not benefit from this clinical treatment and, predictive factors of response were not defined yet. This study was designed to evaluate the importance of biological markers to predict response and prognosis in stage II and III breast cancer patients treated with taxane and anthracycline combination as neoadjuvant setting. Methods Sixty patients received preoperative docetaxel (75 mg/m2) in combination with epirubicin (50 mg/m2) in i.v. infusion in D1 every 3 weeks after incisional biopsy. They received adjuvant chemotherapy with CMF or FEC, attaining axillary status following definitive breast surgery. Clinical and pathologic response rates were measured after preoperative therapy. We evaluated the response rate to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and the prognostic significance of clinicopathological and immunohistochemical parameters (ER, PR, p51, p21 and HER-2 protein expression). The median patient age was 50.5 years with a median follow up time 48 months after the time of diagnosis. Results Preoperative treatment achieved clinical response in 76.6% of patients and complete pathologic response in 5%. The clinical, pathological and immunohistochemical parameters were not able to predict response to therapy and, only HER2 protein overexpression was associated with a decrease in disease free and overall survival (P = 0.0007 and P = 0.003) as shown by multivariate analysis. Conclusion Immunohistochemical phenotypes were not able to predict response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Clinical response is inversely correlated with a risk of death in patients submitted to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and HER2 overexpression is the major prognostic factor in stage II and III breast cancer patients treated with a neoadjuvant docetaxel and epirubicin combination.

Hepatitis B virus infection in Haemodialysis Centres from Santa Catarina State, Southern Brazil. Predictive risk factors for infection and molecular epidemiology

Abstract Background Patients under haemodialysis are considered at high risk to acquire hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. Since few data are reported from Brazil, our aim was to assess the frequency and risk factors for HBV infection in haemodialysis patients from 22 Dialysis Centres from Santa Catarina State, south of Brazil. Methods This study includes 813 patients, 149 haemodialysis workers and 772 healthy controls matched by sex and age. Serum samples were assayed for HBV markers and viraemia was detected by nested PCR. HBV was genotyped by partial S gene sequencing. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses with stepwise logistic regression analysis were carried out to analyse the relationship between HBV infection and the characteristics of patients and their Dialysis Units. Results Frequency of HBV infection was 10.0%, 2.7% and 2.7% among patients, haemodialysis workers and controls, respectively. Amidst patients, the most frequent HBV genotypes were A (30.6%), D (57.1%) and F (12.2%). Univariate analysis showed association between HBV infection and total time in haemodialysis, type of dialysis equipment, hygiene and sterilization of equipment, number of times reusing the dialysis lines and filters, number of patients per care-worker and current HCV infection. The logistic regression model showed that total time in haemodialysis, number of times of reusing the dialysis lines and filters, and number of patients per worker were significantly related to HBV infection. Conclusions Frequency of HBV infection among haemodialysis patients at Santa Catarina state is very high. The most frequent HBV genotypes were A, D and F. The risk for a patient to become HBV positive increase 1.47 times each month of haemodialysis; 1.96 times if the dialysis unit reuses the lines and filters ≥ 10 times compared with haemodialysis units which reuse < 10 times; 3.42 times if the number of patients per worker is more than five. Sequence similarity among the HBV S gene from isolates of different patients pointed out to nosocomial transmission.

Oral health as a predictive factor for oral mucositis

OBJECTIVES: Oral mucositis is a complication frequently associated with hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, decreasing a patient’s quality of life and increasing the occurrence of opportunistic infections. The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence and severity of oral mucositis and to assess the correlation of this disease with the oral health of an individual at the time of hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. METHODS: Before transplantation, patients’ oral health and inflammatory conditions were determined using the gingival index and the plaque index, which are based on gingival bleeding and the presence of dental plaque, respectively. Additionally, the dental health status was determined using the decayed, missing, and filled teeth index. The monitoring of oral mucositis was based on the World Health Organization grading system and was performed for five periods: from Day 0 to D+5, from D+6 to D+10, from D+11 to D+15, from D+16 to D+20, and from D+21 to D+30. RESULTS: A total of 97 patients (56% male and 44% female) who underwent hematopoietic stem cell transplantation at the Hospital das Clinicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Sao Paulo between January 2008 and July 2009 were prospectively examined. The incidence of ulcerative mucositis was highest from days +6 to +10 and from days +11 to +15 in the patients who underwent autologous and allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, respectively. CONCLUSION: The data, including the dental plaque and periodontal status data, showed that these oral health factors were predictive of the incidence and severity of oral mucositis in a cohort of patients with similar conditioning regimens before hematopoietic stem cell transplantation

Sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of linear and nonlinear indices of heart rate variability in stable angina patients

Abstract Background Decreased heart rate variability (HRV) is related to higher morbidity and mortality. In this study we evaluated the linear and nonlinear indices of the HRV in stable angina patients submitted to coronary angiography. Methods We studied 77 unselected patients for elective coronary angiography, which were divided into two groups: coronary artery disease (CAD) and non-CAD groups. For analysis of HRV indices, HRV was recorded beat by beat with the volunteers in the supine position for 40 minutes. We analyzed the linear indices in the time (SDNN [standard deviation of normal to normal], NN50 [total number of adjacent RR intervals with a difference of duration greater than 50ms] and RMSSD [root-mean square of differences]) and frequency domains ultra-low frequency (ULF) ≤ 0,003 Hz, very low frequency (VLF) 0,003 – 0,04 Hz, low frequency (LF) (0.04–0.15 Hz), and high frequency (HF) (0.15–0.40 Hz) as well as the ratio between LF and HF components (LF/HF). In relation to the nonlinear indices we evaluated SD1, SD2, SD1/SD2, approximate entropy (−ApEn), α1, α2, Lyapunov Exponent, Hurst Exponent, autocorrelation and dimension correlation. The definition of the cutoff point of the variables for predictive tests was obtained by the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC). The area under the ROC curve was calculated by the extended trapezoidal rule, assuming as relevant areas under the curve ≥ 0.650. Results Coronary arterial disease patients presented reduced values of SDNN, RMSSD, NN50, HF, SD1, SD2 and -ApEn. HF ≤ 66 ms2, RMSSD ≤ 23.9 ms, ApEn ≤−0.296 and NN50 ≤ 16 presented the best discriminatory power for the presence of significant coronary obstruction. Conclusion We suggest the use of Heart Rate Variability Analysis in linear and nonlinear domains, for prognostic purposes in patients with stable angina pectoris, in view of their overall impairment.

Low sclerostin levels: a predictive marker of persistent inflammation in ankylosing spondylitis during anti-tumor necrosis factor therapy?

Abstract Introduction Sclerostin levels have been reported to be low in ankylosing spondylitis (AS), but there is no data regarding the possible role of this Wnt inhibitor during anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy. The present study longitudinally evaluated sclerostin levels, inflammatory markers and bone mineral density (BMD) in AS patients under anti-TNF therapy. Methods Thirty active AS patients were assessed at baseline, 6 and 12 months after anti-TNF therapy regarding clinical parameters, inflammatory markers, BMD and baseline radiographic damage (mSASSS). Thirty age- and sex-matched healthy individuals comprised the control group. Patients' sclerostin levels, sclerostin binding low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 6 (LRP6) and BMD were evaluated at the same time points and compared to controls. Results At baseline, AS patients had lower sclerostin levels (60.5 ± 32.7 vs. 96.7 ± 52.9 pmol/L, P = 0.002) and comparable sclerostin binding to LRP6 (P = 0.387) than controls. Improvement of Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Disease Activity Index (BASDAI), Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Functional Index (BASFI), Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Metrology Index (BASMI), Ankylosing Spondylitis quality of life (ASQoL) was observed at baseline vs. 6 vs. 12 months (P < 0.01). Concomitantly, a gradual increase in spine BMD (P < 0.001) and a positive correlation between baseline mSASSS and spine BMD was found (r = 0.468, P < 0.01). Inflammatory parameters reduction was observed comparing baseline vs. 6 vs. 12 months (P <0.01). Sclerostin levels progressively increased [baseline (60.5 ± 32.7) vs. 6 months (67.1 ± 31.9) vs. 12 months (72.7 ± 32.3) pmol/L, P <0.001]. At 12 months, the sclerostin levels remained significantly lower in patients compared to controls (72.7 ± 32.3 vs. 96.70 ± 52.85 pmol/L, P = 0.038). Moreover, sclerostin serum levels at 12 months were lower in the 10 patients with high C reactive protein (CRP) (≥ 5 mg/l) compared to the other 20 patients with normal CRP (P = 0.004). Of note, these 10 patients with persistent inflammation also had lower sclerostin serum levels at baseline compared to the other patients (P = 0.023). Univariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that AS patients with lower sclerostin serum levels had an increased risk to have high CRP at 12 months (odds ratio = 7.43, 95% CI 1.23 to 45.01, P = 0.020) than those with higher sclerostin values. Conclusions Persistent low sclerostin levels may underlie continuous inflammation in AS patients under anti-TNF therapy.

Primary stability in cementless total hip replacement: measurement techniques and aided-surgery

Primary stability of stems in cementless total hip replacements is recognized to play a critical role for long-term survival and thus for the success of the overall surgical procedure. In Literature, several studies addressed this important issue. Different approaches have been explored aiming to evaluate the extent of stability achieved during surgery. Some of these are in-vitro protocols while other tools are coinceived for the post-operative assessment of prosthesis migration relative to the host bone. In vitro protocols reported in the literature are not exportable to the operating room. Anyway most of them show a good overall accuracy. The RSA, EBRA and the radiographic analysis are currently used to check the healing process of the implanted femur at different follow-ups, evaluating implant migration, occurance of bone resorption or osteolysis at the interface. These methods are important for follow up and clinical study but do not assist the surgeon during implantation. At the time I started my Ph.D Study in Bioengineering, only one study had been undertaken to measure stability intra-operatively. No follow-up was presented to describe further results obtained with that device. In this scenario, it was believed that an instrument that could measure intra-operatively the stability achieved by an implanted stem would consistently improve the rate of success. This instrument should be accurate and should give to the surgeon during implantation a quick answer concerning the stability of the implanted stem. With this aim, an intra-operative device was designed, developed and validated. The device is meant to help the surgeon to decide how much to press-fit the implant. It is essentially made of a torsional load cell, able to measure the extent of torque applied by the surgeon to test primary stability, an angular sensor that measure the relative angular displacement between stem and femur, a rigid connector that enable connecting the device to the stem, and all the electronics for signals conditioning. The device was successfully validated in-vitro, showing a good overall accuracy in discriminating stable from unstable implants. Repeatability tests showed that the device was reliable. A calibration procedure was then performed in order to convert the angular readout into a linear displacement measurement, which is an information clinically relevant and simple to read in real-time by the surgeon. The second study reported in my thesis, concerns the evaluation of the possibility to have predictive information regarding the primary stability of a cementless stem, by measuring the micromotion of the last rasp used by the surgeon to prepare the femoral canal. This information would be really useful to the surgeon, who could check prior to the implantation process if the planned stem size can achieve a sufficient degree of primary stability, under optimal press fitting conditions. An intra-operative tool was developed to this aim. It was derived from a previously validated device, which was adapted for the specific purpose. The device is able to measure the relative micromotion between the femur and the rasp, when a torsional load is applied. An in-vitro protocol was developed and validated on both composite and cadaveric specimens. High correlation was observed between one of the parameters extracted form the acquisitions made on the rasp and the stability of the corresponding stem, when optimally press-fitted by the surgeon. After tuning in-vitro the protocol as in a closed loop, verification was made on two hip patients, confirming the results obtained in-vitro and highlighting the independence of the rasp indicator from the bone quality, anatomy and preserving conditions of the tested specimens, and from the sharpening of the rasp blades. The third study is related to an approach that have been recently explored in the orthopaedic community, but that was already in use in other scientific fields. It is based on the vibration analysis technique. This method has been successfully used to investigate the mechanical properties of the bone and its application to evaluate the extent of fixation of dental implants has been explored, even if its validity in this field is still under discussion. Several studies have been published recently on the stability assessment of hip implants by vibration analysis. The aim of the reported study was to develop and validate a prototype device based on the vibration analysis technique to measure intra-operatively the extent of implant stability. The expected advantages of a vibration-based device are easier clinical use, smaller dimensions and minor overall cost with respect to other devices based on direct micromotion measurement. The prototype developed consists of a piezoelectric exciter connected to the stem and an accelerometer attached to the femur. Preliminary tests were performed on four composite femurs implanted with a conventional stem. The results showed that the input signal was repeatable and the output could be recorded accurately. The fourth study concerns the application of the device based on the vibration analysis technique to several cases, considering both composite and cadaveric specimens. Different degrees of bone quality were tested, as well as different femur anatomies and several levels of press-fitting were considered. The aim of the study was to verify if it is possible to discriminate between stable and quasi-stable implants, because this is the most challenging detection for the surgeon in the operation room. Moreover, it was possible to validate the measurement protocol by comparing the results of the acquisitions made with the vibration-based tool to two reference measurements made by means of a validated technique, and a validated device. The results highlighted that the most sensitive parameter to stability is the shift in resonance frequency of the stem-bone system, showing high correlation with residual micromotion on all the tested specimens. Thus, it seems possible to discriminate between many levels of stability, from the grossly loosened implant, through the quasi-stable implants, to the definitely stable one. Finally, an additional study was performed on a different type of hip prosthesis, which has recently gained great interest thus becoming fairly popular in some countries in the last few years: the hip resurfacing prosthesis. The study was motivated by the following rationale: although bone-prosthesis micromotion is known to influence the stability of total hip replacement, its effect on the outcome of resurfacing implants has not been investigated in-vitro yet, but only clinically. Thus the work was aimed at verifying if it was possible to apply to the resurfacing prosthesis one of the intraoperative devices just validated for the measurement of the micromotion in the resurfacing implants. To do that, a preliminary study was performed in order to evaluate the extent of migration and the typical elastic movement for an epiphyseal prosthesis. An in-vitro procedure was developed to measure micromotions of resurfacing implants. This included a set of in-vitro loading scenarios that covers the range of directions covered by hip resultant forces in the most typical motor-tasks. The applicability of the protocol was assessed on two different commercial designs and on different head sizes. The repeatability and reproducibility were excellent (comparable to the best previously published protocols for standard cemented hip stems). Results showed that the procedure is accurate enough to detect micromotions of the order of few microns. The protocol proposed was thus completely validated. The results of the study demonstrated that the application of an intra-operative device to the resurfacing implants is not necessary, as the typical micromovement associated to this type of prosthesis could be considered negligible and thus not critical for the stabilization process. Concluding, four intra-operative tools have been developed and fully validated during these three years of research activity. The use in the clinical setting was tested for one of the devices, which could be used right now by the surgeon to evaluate the degree of stability achieved through the press-fitting procedure. The tool adapted to be used on the rasp was a good predictor of the stability of the stem. Thus it could be useful for the surgeon while checking if the pre-operative planning was correct. The device based on the vibration technique showed great accuracy, small dimensions, and thus has a great potential to become an instrument appreciated by the surgeon. It still need a clinical evaluation, and must be industrialized as well. The in-vitro tool worked very well, and can be applied for assessing resurfacing implants pre-clinically.

A new predictive solar radiation numerical model

[EN]A predictive solar radiation numerical model is presented. Starting from the works of, a solar radiation numerical model is developed considering the terrain surface through 2-D adaptive meshes of triangles which are constructed using a refinement/derefinement procedure in accordance with the variations of terrain surface and albedo. The effect of shadows is considered in each time step. Solar radiation is first computed for clear-sky (CS) conditions and then, real-sky values are computed daily in terms of the CS index computed using all the observational data which are available for each day at several points of the studied zone…

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

Model predictive flight control systems for rotorcraft UAS

Constraints are widely present in the flight control problems: actuators saturations or flight envelope limitations are only some examples of that. The ability of Model Predictive Control (MPC) of dealing with the constraints joined with the increased computational power of modern calculators makes this approach attractive also for fast dynamics systems such as agile air vehicles. This PhD thesis presents the results, achieved at the Aerospace Engineering Department of the University of Bologna in collaboration with the Dutch National Aerospace Laboratories (NLR), concerning the development of a model predictive control system for small scale rotorcraft UAS. Several different predictive architectures have been evaluated and tested by means of simulation, as a result of this analysis the most promising one has been used to implement three different control systems: a Stability and Control Augmentation System, a trajectory tracking and a path following system. The systems have been compared with a corresponding baseline controller and showed several advantages in terms of performance, stability and robustness.

Studio dei metodi di valutazione della pericolosità associata ai "debris flow" in ambiente alpino

The present work concerns with the study of debris flows and, in particular, with the related hazard in the Alpine Environment. During the last years several methodologies have been developed to evaluate hazard associated to such a complex phenomenon, whose velocity, impacting force and inappropriate temporal prediction are responsible of the related high hazard level. This research focuses its attention on the depositional phase of debris flows through the application of a numerical model (DFlowz), and on hazard evaluation related to watersheds morphometric, morphological and geological characterization. The main aims are to test the validity of DFlowz simulations and assess sources of errors in order to understand how the empirical uncertainties influence the predictions; on the other side the research concerns with the possibility of performing hazard analysis starting from the identification of susceptible debris flow catchments and definition of their activity level. 25 well documented debris flow events have been back analyzed with the model DFlowz (Berti and Simoni, 2007): derived form the implementation of the empirical relations between event volume and planimetric and cross section inundated areas, the code allows to delineate areas affected by an event by taking into account information about volume, preferential flow path and digital elevation model (DEM) of fan area. The analysis uses an objective methodology for evaluating the accuracy of the prediction and involve the calibration of the model based on factors describing the uncertainty associated to the semi empirical relationships. The general assumptions on which the model is based have been verified although the predictive capabilities are influenced by the uncertainties of the empirical scaling relationships, which have to be necessarily taken into account and depend mostly on errors concerning deposited volume estimation. In addition, in order to test prediction capabilities of physical-based models, some events have been simulated through the use of RAMMS (RApid Mass MovementS). The model, which has been developed by the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL) in Birmensdorf and the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research (SLF) takes into account a one-phase approach based on Voellmy rheology (Voellmy, 1955; Salm et al., 1990). The input file combines the total volume of the debris flow located in a release area with a mean depth. The model predicts the affected area, the maximum depth and the flow velocity in each cell of the input DTM. Relatively to hazard analysis related to watersheds characterization, the database collected by the Alto Adige Province represents an opportunity to examine debris-flow sediment dynamics at the regional scale and analyze lithologic controls. With the aim of advancing current understandings about debris flow, this study focuses on 82 events in order to characterize the topographic conditions associated with their initiation , transportation and deposition, seasonal patterns of occurrence and examine the role played by bedrock geology on sediment transfer.

Immunohistochemical and Molecular Prognostic/Predictive Markers in Neoplastic Diseases

Traditional morphological examinations are not anymore sufficient for a complete evaluation of tumoral tissue and the use of neoplastic markers is of utmost importance. Neoplastic markers can be classified in: diagnostic, prognostic and predictive markers. Three markers were analyzed. 1) Insulin-like growth factor binding protein 2 (IGFBP2) was immunohistochemically examined in prostatic tissues: 40 radical prostatectomies from hormonally untreated patients with their preoperative biopsies, 10 radical prostatectomies from patients under complete androgen ablation before surgery and 10 simple prostatectomies from patients with bladder outlet obstruction. Results were compared with α-methylacyl-CoA racemase (AMACR). IGFBP2 was expressed in the cytoplasm of untreated adenocarcinomas and, to a lesser extent, in HG-PIN; the expression was markedly lower in patients after complete androgen ablation. AMACR was similarly expressed in both adenocarcinoma and HG-PIN, the level being similar in both lesions; the expression was slightly lower in patients after complete androgen ablation. IGFBP2 may be used a diagnostic marker of prostatic adenocarcinomas. 2) Heparan surface proteoglycan immunohistochemical expression was examined in 150 oral squamous cell carcinomas. Follow up information was available in 93 patients (range: 6-34 months, mean: 19±7). After surgery, chemotherapy was performed in 8 patients and radiotherapy in 61 patients. Multivariate and univariate overall survival analyses showed that high expression of syndecan-1 (SYN-1) was associated with a poor prognosis. In patients treated with radiotherapy, such association was higher. SYN-1 is a prognostic marker in oral squamous cell carcinomas; it may also represent a predictive factor for responsiveness to radiotherapy. 3) EGFR was studied in 33 pulmonary adenocarcinomas with traditional DNA sequencing methods and with two mutation-specific antibodies. Overall, the two antibodies had 61.1% sensitivity and 100% specificity in detecting EGFR mutations. EGFR mutation-specific antibodies may represent a predictive marker to identify patients candidate to tyrosine kinase inhibitors therapy.

Predictive Ability of NGAL as a Marker of Renal Damage: evaluation of Multiple Clinical Settings

Introduction. Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin (NGAL) belongs to the family of lipocalins and it is produced by several cell types, including renal tubular epithelium. In the kidney its production increases during acute damage and this is reflected by the increase in serum and urine levels. In animal studies and clinical trials, NGAL was found to be a sensitive and specific indicator of acute kidney injury (AKI). Purpose. The aim of this work was to investigate, in a prospective manner, whether urine NGAL can be used as a marker in preeclampsia, kidney transplantation, VLBI and diabetic nephropathy. Materials and methods. The study involved 44 consecutive patients who received renal transplantation; 18 women affected by preeclampsia (PE); a total of 55 infants weighing ≤1500 g and 80 patients with Type 1 diabetes. Results. A positive correlation was found between urinary NGAL and 24 hours proteinuria within the PE group. The detection of higher uNGAL values in case of severe PE, even in absence of statistical significance, confirms that these women suffer from an initial renal damage. In our population of VLBW infants, we found a positive correlation of uNGAL values at birth with differences in sCreat and eGFR values from birth to day 21, but no correlation was found between uNGAL values at birth and sCreat and eGFR at day 7. systolic an diastolic blood pressure decreased with increasing levels of uNGAL. The patients with uNGAL <25 ng/ml had significantly higher levels of systolic blood pressure compared with the patients with uNGAL >50 ng/ml ( p<0.005). Our results indicate the ability of NGAL to predict the delay in functional recovery of the graft. Conclusions. In acute renal pathology, urinary NGAL confirms to be a valuable predictive marker of the progress and status of acute injury.