959 resultados para Prediction systems


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Background Body mass index (BMI) is frequently related to percentage body fat. Nevertheless, the relationship between BMI and fat mass/height(2) (FM/H-2), theoretically, should be more appropriate. Aim: This study seeks to evaluate the relationship between BMI and both percentage body fat and FM/H-2 in a group of Chinese Australian females. Subjects and methods: Forty subjects took part in the study and all were Chinese females resident in Brisbane, Australia. Body mass index was calculated from height and weight. Percentage body fat and fat mass were calculated from measurements of total body water. Results: The use of BMI to predict FM/H-2 accounted for double the variance of that found when BMI was used to predict percentage body fat. Conclusions: As a consequence, it is possible that the use of BMI to predict FM/H-2 and not percentage body fat in the first instance may prove to be more useful in a number of adult populations. Nevertheless, with a relatively small sample size it is difficult, if not impossible, to test the developed equations on a validation group and further investigation into the findings described in this paper needs to be undertaken.

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Telehealth programmes are rather similar to humans in the way that they are planned, develop, grow and ultimately die or disappear. To achieve good life expectancy for a telehealth programme there appear to be three major needs: nurturing, which includes the provision of money, ideas, education, training and innovation; experience, which involves an integrated management process, the achievement of long and wide patterns of usage, the development of updated policies and procedures and the involvement of multiple disciplines; success, which involves evidence of outcomes, evaluation and research, and, most important, the sharing of information through scientific and popular press publications, and conferences and collaborations with internal and external groups. The future of telehealth in Australia is at a watershed. There are now a substantial number of programmes, and there has been a large amount of financial and human investment in telehealth around the nation. There is, however, no forum for national leadership, no national association and little support at federal government level.

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Our interest lies in applying the principles of critical systems thinking to human activity systems in developing countries in situations where issues of natural resource sustainability constrain the feasible set of long-term strategies. The concept of sustainable development provides an expanded domain for critical systems thinking. The fundamental values underpinning sustainable development are that both intragenerational and intergenerational equity are important. As a consequence, key stakeholders are often excluded from power-sharing within current social systems. Addressing these issues requires renewed focus on emancipatory commitment and methodologies. To date, Ulrich's critical systems heuristics is the only critical systems methodology that offers practicable tools for emancipation. A case study analysis in Tigray, northern Ethiopia, provides insights in relation to the application of critical system heuristics to issues of sustainable development and highlights the need to extend the use of critical systems heuristics beyond the design and monitoring of structured interventions.

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While aggregate level pay equity comparisons between Australia and the UK confirm expectations based on their different wage distributions and regulatory systems, observation of trends and occupational level analysis reveal additional complexity. Our analysis suggests the need for a multi-faceted approach to closing the average gender pay gap.

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Prioritizing areas for conservation requires the use of surrogates for assessing overall patterns of biodiversity. Effective surrogates will reflect general biogeographical patterns and the evolutionary processes that have given rise to these and their efficiency is likely to lie influenced by several factors, including the spatial scale of species turnover and the overall congruence of the biogeographical history. We examine patterns of surrogacy for insects, snails, one family of plants and vertebrates from rainforests of northeast Queensland, an area characterized by high endemicity and an underlying history of climate-induced vicariance. Nearly all taxa provided some level of prediction of the conservation values For others. However, despite an overall correlation of the patterns of species richness and complementarity, the efficiency of surrogacy was highly asymmetric.. snails and insects were strong predictors of conservation priorities for vertebrates, but not vice versa. These results confirm predictions that taxon surrogates can be effective in highly diverse tropical systems where there is a strong history of vicariant biogeography, but also indicate that correlated patterns for species richness and/or complementarity do not guarantee that one taxon will be efficient as a surrogate for another. In our case, the highly diverse and narrowly distributed invertebrates were more efficient as predictors than the less diverse and more broadly distributed vertebrates.

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The taxonomic relationship between two toothed South African river crabs, Potamonautes warreni and P. unispinus, is unclear. The problem stems from the widespread variation in carapace dentition patterns amongst P. warreni individuals over its biogeographic range, where single toothed individuals may appear similar in carapace morphology to P. unispinus. Ten populations of P. warreni and 18 populations of P. unispinus were collected and the morphometric and genetic differentiation between the two taxa quantified. Patterns of morphometric and genetic variation were examined using multivariate statistics and protein gel electrophoresis, respectively. Principal component analyses of carapace characters showed that the two species are morphologically indistinguishable. However, discriminate functions analyses and additional statistical results corroborate the morphological distinction between the two taxa. Allozyme electrophoresis of 17 protein coding loci, indicated a close genetic similarity between the two species (I = 0.92). A fixed allelic difference at one locus (LT-2) and extensive genetic variability at another locus (PGM-1) indicate that two gene pools are present and that the two taxa are genetically isolated. Intraspecific genetic I values for both species were > 0.97 and indicated no apparent genetic structuring on a micro or macro-geographic scale. The variation in carapace dentition among P. warreni populations possesses no genetic basis and may possibly toe the product of ecogenesis. The value of dentition patterns in the systematics of river crabs is discussed. Dentition patterns among river crab species appear to be conserved and reliable as species specific diagnostic markers, but should ideally be used in combination with other morphological data sets and genetic evidence.

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We examined the burst swimming performance of two Antarctic fishes, Trematomus bernacchii and T. centronotus, at five temperatures between -1 degreesC and 10 degreesC. As Antarctic fishes are considered one of the most cold specialised and stenothermal of all ectotherms, we predicted they would possess a narrow thermal performance breadth for burst swimming and a correlative decrease in performance at high temperatures. Burst swimming was assessed by videotaping swimming sequences with a 50-Hz video camera and analysing the sequences frame-by-frame to determine maximum velocity, the distance moved throughout the initial 200 ms, and the time taken to reach maximum velocity. In contrast to our prediction, we found both species possessed a wide thermal performance breadth for burst swimming. Although maximum swimming velocity for both T. bernacchii and T. centronotus was significantly highest at 6 degreesC, maximum velocity at ah other test temperatures was less than 20% lower. Thus, it appears that specialisation to a highly stable and cold environment is not necessarily associated with a narrow thermal performance breadth for burst swimming in Antarctic fish. We also examined the ability of the Antarctic fish Pagothenia borchgrevinki to acclimate their burst-swimming performance to different temperatures. We exposed P, borchgrevinki to either -1 degreesC or 4 degreesC for 4 weeks and tested their burst-swimming performance at four temperatures between -1 degreesC and 10 degreesC. Burst-swimming performance of Pagothenia borchgrevinki was unaffected by exposure to either -1 degreesC or 4 degreesC for 4 weeks. Maximum swimming velocity of both acclimation groups was thermally independent over the total temperature range of -1 degreesC to 10 degreesC. Therefore, the loss of any capacity to restructure the phenotype and an inability to thermally acclimate swimming performance appears to be associated with inhabiting a highly stable thermal environment.

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Event-specific scales commonly have greater power than generalized scales in prediction of specific disorders and in testing mediator models for predicting such disorders. Therefore, in a preliminary study, a 6-item Alcohol Helplessness Scale was constructed and found to be reliable for a sample of 98 problem drinkers. Hierarchical multiple regression and its derivative path analysis were used to test whether helplessness and self-efficacy moderate or mediate the link between alcohol dependence and depression, A test of a moderation model was not supported, whereas a test of a mediation model was supported. Helplessness and self-efficacy both significantly and independently mediated between alcohol dependence and depression. Nevertheless, a significant direct effect of alcohol dependence on depression also remained, (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

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The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Background, Cardiac complications occur commonly in vascular surgery patients. Diagnosis of cardiac complications is difficult because of the inaccuracies associated with traditional cardiac enzyme measurements. CTi, a highly sensitive and specific marker of myocardial injury, may be able to detect cardiac complications with greater ease and accuracy. Methods. The study prospectively examined 100 consecutive patients who underwent major vascular surgery between 6/7/98 and 31/12/98 at the Royal Brisbane Hospital. Daily measurements of cTi, creatine kinase (CK), creatine kinase MB (CKMB), CKMB index, renal function and haemoglobin were taken for three postoperative days. One postoperative electrocardiograph (ECC) was taken. An extensive cardiac history was taken. Intraoperative and postoperative events were recorded. Findings. There were 100 patients, 18 patients (18%) had a cTi elevation. On the basis of classical diagnostic criteria, 15 patients (15%) suffered one or more cardiac complication (either myocardial infarction, congestive cardiac failure, unstable angina or atrial fibrillation), One patient (1%) who had a cTi elevation died. CTI elevation occurred in five patients (5%) who were not diagnosed with cardiac complications based on traditional criteria. Despite not meeting specific diagnostic criteria for cardiac complications, all patients showed signs and symptoms that could be attributed to myocardial ischaemia, Every patient who developed congestive cardiac failure or atrial fibrillation had a cTi elevation. A Chi-square analysis revealed a significant association between cTi elevation and postoperative cardiac complications. Four variables contributed small but significant amounts of unique variance to the prediction of peak cTi on linear regression analysis. These were peak CKMB index, postoperative congestive cardiac failure, postoperative chest pain and postoperative cardiac complications. Conclusions. Routine cTi monitoring of postoperative vascular patients would be an effective and inexpensive way to detect patients with cardiac complications. The relationship between postoperative cTi elevation and significant coronary artery disease remains to be shown, (C) 2001 The international Society for Cardiovascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The activated sludge comprises a complex microbiological community. The structure (what types of microorganisms are present) and function (what can the organisms do and at what rates) of this community are determined by external physico -chemical features and by the influent to the sewage treatment plant. The external features we can manipulate but rarely the influent. Conventional control and operational strategies optimise activated sludge processes more as a chemical system than as a biological one. While optimising the process in a short time period, these strategies may deteriorate the long-term performance of the process due to their potentially adverse impact on the microbial properties. Through briefly reviewing the evidence available in the literature that plant design and operation affect both the structure and function of the microbial community in activated sludge, we propose to add sludge population optimisation as a new dimension to the control of biological wastewater treatment systems. We stress that optimising the microbial community structure and property should be an explicit aim for the design and operation of a treatment plant. The major limitations to sludge population optimisation revolve around inadequate microbiological data, specifically community structure, function and kinetic data. However, molecular microbiological methods that strive to provide that data are being developed rapidly. The combination of these methods with the conventional approaches for kinetic study is briefly discussed. The most pressing research questions pertaining to sludge population optimisation are outlined. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.