Evaluating, predicting and mapping belowground carbon stores in Kenyan mangroves.

Despite covering only approximately 138,000 km2, mangroves are globally important carbon sinks with carbon density values 3 to 4 times that of terrestrial forests. A key challenge in evaluating the carbon benefits from mangrove forest conservation is the lack of rigorous spatially resolved estimates of mangrove sediment carbon stocks; most mangrove carbon is stored belowground. Previous work has focused on detailed estimations of carbon stores over relatively small areas, which has obvious limitations in terms of generality and scope of application. Most studies have focused only on quantifying the top 1m of belowground carbon (BGC). Carbon stored at depths beyond 1m, and the effects of mangrove species, location and environmental context on these stores, is poorly studied. This study investigated these variables at two sites (Gazi and Vanga in the south of Kenya) and used the data to produce a country-specific BGC predictive model for Kenya and map BGC store estimates throughout Kenya at spatial scales relevant for climate change research, forest management and REDD+ (Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation). The results revealed that mangrove species was the most reliable predictor of BGC; Rhizophora muronata had the highest mean BGC with 1485.5t C ha-1. Applying the species-based predictive model to a base map of species distribution in Kenya for the year 2010 with a 2.5m2 resolution, produced an estimate of 69.41 Mt C (± 9.15 95% C.I.) for BGC in Kenyan mangroves. When applied to a 1992 mangrove distribution map, the BGC estimate was 75.65 Mt C (± 12.21 95% C.I.); an 8.3% loss in BGC stores between 1992 and 2010 in Kenya. The country level mangrove map provides a valuable tool for assessing carbon stocks and visualising the distribution of BGC. Estimates at the 2.5m2 resolution provide sufficient detail for highlighting and prioritising areas for mangrove conservation and restoration.

A mixed logit model for predicting exit choice during building evacuations.

Knowledge on human behaviour in emergency is crucial to increase the safety of buildings and transportation systems. Decision making during evacuations implies different choices, of which one of the most important concerns the escape route. The choice of a route may involve local decisions between alternative exits from an enclosed environment. This work investigates the influence of environmental (presence of smoke, emergency lighting and distance of exit) and social factors (interaction with evacuees close to the exits and with those near the decision-maker) on local exit choice. This goal is pursued using an online stated preference survey carried out making use of non-immersive virtual reality. A sample of 1,503 participants is obtained and a Mixed Logit Model is calibrated using these data. The model shows that presence of smoke, emergency lighting, distance of exit, number of evacuees near the exits and the decision-maker, and flow of evacuees through the exits significantly affect local exit choice. Moreover, the model points out that decision making is affected by a high degree of behavioural uncertainty. Our findings support the improvement of evacuation models and the accuracy of their results, which can assist in designing and managing building and transportation systems. The main contribution of this work is to enrich the understanding of how local exit choices are made and how behavioural uncertainty affects these choices.

Degradation toolkit for predicting the amount of degradation of particulate solids in lean phase pneumatic conveyors

Abstract not available

Multicomponent cognitive-behavioral therapy for intermittent explosive disorder by videoconferencing: a case study

Cognitive-behavioral Therapy (CBT) for the treatment of Intermittent Explosive Disorder (IED) has proved to be effective, with moderate to large effect sizes both in individual and group interventions. Videoconferencing has been used effectively to treat different mental disorders but its use for IED patients is as yet unknown. The aim of this study is to provide preliminary evidence of the possibility of treating IED by videoconference. We present a case-study experiment of a Spanish male, aged 33 years, living and working in China. After the intervention, the patient's aggressive episodes decreased dramatically, as well as his negative affect. In contrast, he showed an important increment in positive emotions and self-esteem. There were also positive changes in some personality dimensions and facets measured by NEO-PI-R, specifically in neuroticism, extraversion, and agreeableness. The benefits were maintained at 3-, 8- and 18-month follow-ups. These preliminary results reveal that CBT by videoconference oriented to increasing emotion regulation skills was effective when implemented in a case study of a person suffering from IED.

Predicting Pollicipes pollicipes (Crustacea: Cirripedia) abundance on intertidal rocky shores of SW Portugal: a multi-scale approach based on a simple fetch-based wave exposure index

Understanding and predicting patterns of distribution and abundance of marine resources is important for con- servation and management purposes in small-scale artisanal fisheries and industrial fisheries worldwide. The goose barnacle (Pollicipes pollicipes) is an important shellfish resource and its distribution is closely related to wave exposure at different spatial scales. We modelled the abundance (percent coverage) of P. pollicipes as a function of a simple wave exposure index based on fetch estimates from digitized coastlines at different spatial scales. The model accounted for 47.5% of the explained deviance and indicated that barnacle abundance increases non-linearly with wave exposure at both the smallest (metres) and largest (kilometres) spatial scales considered in this study. Distribution maps were predicted for the study region in SW Portugal. Our study suggests that the relationship between fetch-based exposure indices and P. pollicipes percent cover may be used as a simple tool for providing stakeholders with information on barnacle distribution patterns. This information may improve assessment of harvesting grounds and the dimension of exploitable areas, aiding management plans and support- ing decision making on conservation, harvesting pressure and surveillance strategies for this highly appreciated and socio- economically important marine resource.

Predicting Plant Performance Under Simultaneously Changing Environmental Conditions-The Interplay Between Temperature, Light, and Internode Growth

Plant performance is significantly influenced by prevailing light and temperature conditions during plant growth and development. For plants exposed to natural fluctuations in abiotic environmental conditions it is however laborious and cumbersome to experimentally assign any contribution of individual environmental factors to plant responses. This study aimed at analyzing the interplay between light, temperature and internode growth based on model approaches. We extended the light-sensitive virtual plant model L-Cucumber by implementing a common Arrhenius function for appearance rates, growth rates, and growth durations. For two greenhouse experiments, the temperature-sensitive model approach resulted in a precise prediction of cucumber mean internode lengths and number of internodes, as well as in accurately predicted patterns of individual internode lengths along the main stem. In addition, a system's analysis revealed that environmental data averaged over the experimental period were not necessarily related to internode performance. Finally, the need for a species-specific parameterization of the temperature response function and related aspects in modeling temperature effects on plant development and growth is discussed.

Predicting long-term outcome after acute ischemic stroke: a simple index works in patients from controlled clinical trials

Background and Purpose—An early and reliable prognosis for recovery in stroke patients is important for initiation of individual treatment and for informing patients and relatives. We recently developed and validated models for predicting survival and functional independence within 3 months after acute stroke, based on age and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score assessed within 6 hours after stroke. Herein we demonstrate the applicability of our models in an independent sample of patients from controlled clinical trials. Methods—The prognostic models were used to predict survival and functional recovery in 5419 patients from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA). Furthermore, we tried to improve the accuracy by adapting intercepts and estimating new model parameters. Results—The original models were able to correctly classify 70.4% (survival) and 72.9% (functional recovery) of patients. Because the prediction was slightly pessimistic for patients in the controlled trials, adapting the intercept improved the accuracy to 74.8% (survival) and 74.0% (functional recovery). Novel estimation of parameters, however, yielded no relevant further improvement. Conclusions—For acute ischemic stroke patients included in controlled trials, our easy-to-apply prognostic models based on age and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score correctly predicted survival and functional recovery after 3 months. Furthermore, a simple adaptation helps to adjust for a different prognosis and is recommended if a large data set is available. (Stroke. 2008;39:000-000.)

Predicting risk of violence through a self-appraisal questionnaire

The Self-Appraisal Questionnaire (SAQ) is a self-report that predicts the risk of violence and recidivism and provides relevant information about treatment needs for incarcerated populations. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the concurrent and predictive validity of this self-report in Spanish offenders. The SAQ was administered to 276 offenders recruited from several prisons in Madrid (Spain). SAQ total scores presented high levels of internal consistency (alpha = .92). Correlations of the instrument with violence risk instruments were statistically significant and showed a moderate magnitude, indicating a reasonable degree of concurrent validity. The ROC analysis carried out on the SAQ total score revealed an AUC of .80, showing acceptable accuracy discriminating between violent and nonviolent recidivist groups. It is concluded that the SAQ total score is a reliable and valid measure to estimate violence and recidivism risk in Spanish offenders.

Connecting the dots: Examining the role of parental beliefs and preschoolers’ affect and engagement in predicting parent-child number exploration during a meaningful math experience

The current study examined the frequency and quality of how 3- to 4-year-old children and their parents explore the relations between symbolic and non-symbolic quantities in the context of a playful math experience, as well as the role of both parent and child factors in this exploration. Preschool children’s numerical knowledge was assessed while parents completed a survey about the number-related experiences they share with their children at home, and their math-related beliefs. Parent-child dyads were then videotaped playing a modified version of the card game War. Results suggest that parents and children explored quantity explicitly on only half of the cards and card pairs played, and dyads of young children and those with lower number knowledge tended to be most explicit in their quantity exploration. Dyads with older children, on the other hand, often completed their turns without discussing the numbers at all, likely because they were knowledgeable enough about numbers that they could move through the game with ease. However, when dyads did explore the quantities explicitly, they focused on identifying numbers symbolically, used non-symbolic card information interchangeably with symbolic information to make the quantity comparison judgments, and in some instances, emphasized the connection between the symbolic and non-symbolic number representations on the cards. Parents reported that math experiences such as card game play and quantity comparison occurred relatively infrequently at home compared to activities geared towards more foundational practice of number, such as counting out loud and naming numbers. However, parental beliefs were important in predicting both the frequency of at-home math engagement as well as the quality of these experiences. In particular, parents’ specific beliefs about their children’s abilities and interests were associated with the frequency of home math activities, while parents’ math-related ability beliefs and values along with children’s engagement in the card game were associated with the quality of dyads’ number exploration during the card game. Taken together, these findings suggest that card games can be an engaging context for parent-preschooler exploration of numbers in multiple representations, and suggests that parents’ beliefs and children’s level of engagement are important predictors of this exploration.

The need for a marker predicting benefit following cardiovascular disease risk reduction treatment

Developing a robust method to study characteristics of vascular flow using ultrasound may be useful to assess endothelial function and vasodilatation. There are four stages in this proposal. 1.The first stage is to standardise and validate the methodology to enable computational risk flow data and other flow characteristics to be used clinically. (Current Study). Further development of fluid modelling methods will enable particulate haemodynamics to be investigated, and incorporate detailed endothelial structure together with cellular pathways. 2. This should be followed up by studies in different patient groups investigating the association between the derived values and estimated risk (using other methods such as Framingham risk score). 3. Then, associated with underlying cardiovascular risk, prospective studies would be made to establish whether computational flow dynamic data can predict outcome. If successful it could prove to be a very useful marker of benefit following treatment in a clinical setting.

Behavioral traits predicting cocaine-conditioned place reference in mice: role of anxiety adn the basolateral amygdala

Aims. The individual susceptibility to cocaine addiction, a factor of interest in the understanding and prevention of this disorder, may be predicted by certain behavioral traits. However, these are not usually taken into account in research, making it difficult to identify whether they are a cause or a consequence of drug use. Methods. Male C57BL/6J mice underwent a battery of behavioral tests (elevated plus maze, hole-board, novelty preference in the Y maze, episodic-like object recognition memory and forced swimming test), followed by a cocaine-conditioned place preference (CPP) training to assess the reinforcing effect of the drug. In a second study, we aimed to determine the existence of neurobiological differences between the mice expressing high or low CPP by studying the number of neurons in certain addiction-related structures: the medial prefrontal cortex, the basolateral amygdala and the ventral tegmental area. Results. Anxiety-like behaviors in the elevated plus maze successfully predicted the cocaine-CPP behavior, so that the most anxious mice were also more likely to search for cocaine in a CPP paradigm. In addition, these mice exhibited an increased number of neurons in the basolateral amygdala, a key structure in emotional response including anxiety expression, without differences in the others regions analyzed. Conclusions. Our results suggest a relevant role of anxiety as a psychological risk factor for cocaine vulnerability, with the basolateral amygdala as potential common neural center for both anxiety and addiction.

Usefulness of clinical observations and blood chemistry values for predicting clinical outcomes in dairy goats with pregnancy toxaemia

Background Pregnancy toxaemia (PT) is a disease that affects pregnant goats during their last month of gestation and is characterized by a high case fatality rate. This study involved 32 does maintained on a commercial dairy goat farm that were diagnosed with PT. A physical examination was performed on and haematology parameters obtained from each doe, at the time of diagnosis. The data from the 24 PT goats that died was compared with the corresponding data from the 8 PT goats that survived. Results Polypnea, swollen limbs, anorexia with absence of ruminal motility, recumbency, nervous signs and drooping ears were the most frequently observed clinical manifestations. Nineteen out of 21 recumbent goats died. Sixteen out of 17 goats with anorexia and absence of ruminal motility died. Mean beta-hydroxybutyric acid (BHBA) values in the goats that died were not significantly different from those in goats that survived. The blood values for pH and pCO2 (p < 0.005) as well as for HCO3 −, BE and K+ (p < 0.001) were significantly lower in the goats that died than in those that survived. Conclusions The clinical signs most indicative of a poor prognosis are anorexia with absence of ruminal motility and recumbency. Among the blood parameters to be considered, hypokalaemia and metabolic acidosis are the most relevant. Goats with PT have a high mortality and their condition can deteriorate very fast. Based on the authors’s experience, a good strategy to minimize the economic losses caused by PT is to focus on the offspring survival rate since an early decision (induction of kidding or caesarian surgery) can increase the number of alive kids.

Predicting water permeability in sedimentary rocks from capillary imbibition and pore structure

In this paper, absolute water permeability is estimated from capillary imbibition and pore structure for 15 sedimentary rock types. They present a wide range of petrographic characteristics that provide degrees of connectivity, porosities, pore size distributions, water absorption coefficients by capillarity and water permeabilities. A statistical analysis shows strong correlations among the petrophysical parameters of the studied rocks. Several fundamental properties are fitted into different linear and multiple expressions where water permeability is expressed as a generalized function of the properties. Some practical aspects of these correlations are highlighted in order to use capillary imbibition tests to estimate permeability. The permeability–porosity relation is discussed in the context of the influence of pore connectivity and wettability. As a consequence, we propose a generalized model for permeability that includes information about water fluid rate (water absorption coefficient by capillarity), water properties (density and viscosity), wetting (interfacial tension and contact angle) and pore structure (pore radius and porosity). Its application is examined in terms of the type of pores that contribute to water transport and wettability. The results indicate that the threshold pore radius, in which water percolates through rock, achieves the best description of the pore system. The proposed equation is compared against Carman–Kozeny's and Katz–Thompson's equations. The proposed equation achieves very accurate predictions of the water permeability in the range of 0.01 to 1000 mD.

DEVELOPMENT OF ION EXCHANGE MODELS FOR WATER TREATMENT AND APPLICATION TO THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION WATER PROCESSOR

The International Space Station (ISS) requires a substantial amount of potable water for use by the crew. The economic and logistic limitations of transporting the vast amount of water required onboard the ISS necessitate onboard recovery and reuse of the aqueous waste streams. Various treatment technologies are employed within the ISS water processor to render the waste water potable, including filtration, ion exchange, adsorption, and catalytic wet oxidation. The ion exchange resins and adsorption media are combined in multifiltration beds for removal of ionic and organic compounds. A mathematical model (MFBMODEL™) designed to predict the performance of a multifiltration (MF) bed was developed. MFBMODEL consists of ion exchange models for describing the behavior of the different resin types in a MF bed (e.g., mixed bed, strong acid cation, strong base anion, and weak base anion exchange resins) and an adsorption model capable of predicting the performance of the adsorbents in a MF bed. Multicomponent ion exchange ii equilibrium models that incorporate the water formation reaction, electroneutrality condition, and degree of ionization of weak acids and bases for mixed bed, strong acid cation, strong base anion, and weak base anion exchange resins were developed and verified. The equilibrium models developed use a tanks-inseries approach that allows for consideration of variable influent concentrations. The adsorption modeling approach was developed in related studies and application within the MFBMODEL framework was demonstrated in the Appendix to this study. MFBMODEL consists of a graphical user interface programmed in Visual Basic and Fortran computational routines. This dissertation shows MF bed modeling results in which the model is verified for a surrogate of the ISS waste shower and handwash stream. In addition, a multicomponent ion exchange model that incorporates mass transfer effects was developed, which is capable of describing the performance of strong acid cation (SAC) and strong base anion (SBA) exchange resins, but not including reaction effects. This dissertation presents results showing the mass transfer model's capability to predict the performance of binary and multicomponent column data for SAC and SBA exchange resins. The ion exchange equilibrium and mass transfer models developed in this study are also applicable to terrestrial water treatment systems. They could be applied for removal of cations and anions from groundwater (e.g., hardness, nitrate, perchlorate) and from industrial process waters (e.g. boiler water, ultrapure water in the semiconductor industry).