Are combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility statistically superior?

Forecasting volatility has received a great deal of research attention, with the relative performances of econometric model based and option implied volatility forecasts often being considered. While many studies find that implied volatility is the pre-ferred approach, a number of issues remain unresolved, including the relative merit of combining forecasts and whether the relative performances of various forecasts are statistically different. By utilising recent econometric advances, this paper considers whether combination forecasts of S&P 500 volatility are statistically superior to a wide range of model based forecasts and implied volatility. It is found that a combination of model based forecasts is the dominant approach, indicating that the implied volatility cannot simply be viewed as a combination of various model based forecasts. Therefore, while often viewed as a superior volatility forecast, the implied volatility is in fact an inferior forecast of S&P 500 volatility relative to model-based forecasts.

Queensland Spatial Excellence Awards 2009 : individual citations

Profesional Citation with address to Spatial Sciences Institution (Queensland) - Education and Professional Development Criteria; including Executive Summary, Teaching, Research, Publications Summary, Professional Service and Summary

Asia-Pacific Spatial Excellence Awards WINNERS for 2009

Listing of Asia-Pacific Award winners and award nomination documentation for APSEA education an professional development, includes acceptance speech and photos

Accountability, transparency, impartiality, and other ethical issues : improving democracy reduces violence

Violence is detrimental to the stability of any democracy. If people are too scared to vote, or if they lack confidence in their government to bring peace, how will their voices be heard? By discussing how accountability, transparency, and ethics dissuade social confusion, improve democracy, and lessen occurrences of violence, perhaps one can increase the success in the instance of stabilizing a new democracy or reinvigorating an old one. Theoretically resulting in more peaceful governmental transitions; accountability, transparency, and ethics in democracy are a must to build social trust, improve democracy, and reduce violence.

The Asian Tsunami Fallout : Can Schools help Troubled Students

What is the responsibility of schools in managing student mental health in the aftermath of global mega-disasters that saturate the media? Here, the focus is on the Asian tsunami but the same question can be asked in relation to other disturbing events, such as September 11, Australian bushfires with local fatalities and the Iraq War.

Appreciating diversity: Confronting homophobia at school

The development of sexual identity is a complex, lifelong process involving the interplay of sex, gender and orientation, occurring within a social framework of heterosexual dominance (Murray 2001). Australia has a richly diverse culture and, at some point in our lives, we will all meet people, who look, think, live, or act differently to ourselves. Through understanding and celebrating the diversity of our culture, we enrich our lives and the lives of others. Schools influence how boys (and girls) see themselves and each other; those of us who work in schools cannot pretend to be outside the process of gender construction. In our daily business we send messages, set boundaries and respond with support, disinterest or censure to the acting out of various masculinities and femininities.

Consumer trends in digital news and information in Australia

We all know that the future of news is digital. But mainstream news providers are still grappling with how to entice more customers to their online sites. This paper provides context for a survey currently underway on user intentions towards online news and entertainment, by exploring: 1. Consumer behaviours and intentions with regards to accessing online news and information; 2. Current trends in the Australian online news and information sector; and 3. Key issues and emerging opportunities in the Australian (and global) environment. Key influences on use of online news and information are pricing and access. The paper highlights emerging technical opportunities and flags service gaps. These gaps include multiple disconnects between: 1. Changing user intentions towards online and location based news (news based on a specific locality as chosen by the user) and information; 2. The ability by consumers to act on these intentions via the availability and cost of technologies; 3. Younger users may prefer entertainment to news, or ‘infotainment’; and 4. Current online offerings of traditional news providers and opportunities. These disconnects present an opportunity for online news suppliers to appraise and resolve. Doing so may enhance their online news and information offering, attract consumers and improve loyalty. Outcomes from this paper will be used to identify knowledge gaps and contribute to the development of further analysis on Australian consumers and their behaviours and intentions towards online news and information. This will be undertaken via focus groups as part of a broader study.

Traceability : retracing law and public policy on measurement standards

This presentation outlines key aspects of public policy in broad terms insofar as they relate to establishment, implementation and compliance with legal measurement standards. It refers in particular to traceability of a legal measurement unit from its source in a single international standard as a compliance issue. It comments on accreditation of legal measurement and liability concerned with errors in measurement.

Communication of business process models via virtual environment simulations

Games and related virtual environments have been a much-hyped area of the entertainment industry. The classic quote is that games are now approaching the size of Hollywood box office sales [1]. Books are now appearing that talk up the influence of games on business [2], and it is one of the key drivers of present hardware development. Some of this 3D technology is now embedded right down at the operating system level via the Windows Presentation Foundations – hit Windows/Tab on your Vista box to find out... In addition to this continued growth in the area of games, there are a number of factors that impact its development in the business community. Firstly, the average age of gamers is approaching the mid thirties. Therefore, a number of people who are in management positions in large enterprises are experienced in using 3D entertainment environments. Secondly, due to the pressure of demand for more computational power in both CPU and Graphical Processing Units (GPUs), your average desktop, any decent laptop, can run a game or virtual environment. In fact, the demonstrations at the end of this paper were developed at the Queensland University of Technology (QUT) on a standard Software Operating Environment, with an Intel Dual Core CPU and basic Intel graphics option. What this means is that the potential exists for the easy uptake of such technology due to 1. a broad range of workers being regularly exposed to 3D virtual environment software via games; 2. present desktop computing power now strong enough to potentially roll out a virtual environment solution across an entire enterprise. We believe such visual simulation environments can have a great impact in the area of business process modeling. Accordingly, in this article we will outline the communication capabilities of such environments, giving fantastic possibilities for business process modeling applications, where enterprises need to create, manage, and improve their business processes, and then communicate their processes to stakeholders, both process and non-process cognizant. The article then concludes with a demonstration of the work we are doing in this area at QUT.

Indoor environment sustainability of residential industrial housing in Malaysia

The importance of sustainable development has been internationally recognized and the principles have been widely used as an impetus for promoting housing sustainability. In the situation of mixed-use urban development in close proximity to heavy industrial areas in Malaysia, rising incomes are developing hand in hand with higher expectations for better and more sustainable housing designs. Negative environmental impacts due current deficiency in Malaysia’s approach to the implementation of sustainable development principles can be seen in this case study of the Pasir Gudang Industrial Area in Malaysia. This study aimed to highlight the level of residents’ satisfaction with living near the industrial area, and to relate their awareness of the relevance of sustainable principles with indoor environmental conditions, which found that the residents’ has limited understanding of the environmental problems in their indoor living conditions and in their neighborhoods. This study has suggested that proactive and integrated involvement by housing authorities from all levels of government in Malaysia should be encouraged in order to rationalise the approaches to develop better planning solutions for such mixed-used urban developments. This initiative should then encourage housing vendors to provide innovative ‘smart’ technological changes to their projects and so, to achieve a new direction in sustainable housing development.

Researching Teachers for the Middle Years

The educational landscape around middle schooling reform is a contemporary focus of the Australian school education agenda. The University of Queensland Middle Years of Schooling pre-service teacher education program develops specialist teachers for this crucial phase of schooling. This program has become a national leader for middle school teacher education. This paper reports on aspects of a longitudinal study that began with the first cohort of students in the program in 2003. To date 234 students have been involved as participants in the study. The findings demonstrate that students: can articulate what is meant by the term middle years and can identify with a need for a philosophy of middle schooling; are aware that they are part of a reform movement which has swept the nation and which has implications for teaching in schools in the twenty first century; are confident the program is producing highly skilled professional teachers willing to take on the challenges of teaching in the middle years; can say how their training has helped them understand and account for the educational experiences of students in a time of transition; and hold quiet, yet firm beliefs about teaching in the middle years. Furthermore, using a measure of lexical density to analyze the verbs used by respondents, it seems that this quiet confidence has grown in the period from 2003 – 2006.

Integrated Bayesian network frameworks for modelling complex ecological issues

Ecological problems are typically multi faceted and need to be addressed from a scientific and a management perspective. There is a wealth of modelling and simulation software available, each designed to address a particular aspect of the issue of concern. Choosing the appropriate tool, making sense of the disparate outputs, and taking decisions when little or no empirical data is available, are everyday challenges facing the ecologist and environmental manager. Bayesian Networks provide a statistical modelling framework that enables analysis and integration of information in its own right as well as integration of a variety of models addressing different aspects of a common overall problem. There has been increased interest in the use of BNs to model environmental systems and issues of concern. However, the development of more sophisticated BNs, utilising dynamic and object oriented (OO) features, is still at the frontier of ecological research. Such features are particularly appealing in an ecological context, since the underlying facts are often spatial and temporal in nature. This thesis focuses on an integrated BN approach which facilitates OO modelling. Our research devises a new heuristic method, the Iterative Bayesian Network Development Cycle (IBNDC), for the development of BN models within a multi-field and multi-expert context. Expert elicitation is a popular method used to quantify BNs when data is sparse, but expert knowledge is abundant. The resulting BNs need to be substantiated and validated taking this uncertainty into account. Our research demonstrates the application of the IBNDC approach to support these aspects of BN modelling. The complex nature of environmental issues makes them ideal case studies for the proposed integrated approach to modelling. Moreover, they lend themselves to a series of integrated sub-networks describing different scientific components, combining scientific and management perspectives, or pooling similar contributions developed in different locations by different research groups. In southern Africa the two largest free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) populations are in Namibia and Botswana, where the majority of cheetahs are located outside protected areas. Consequently, cheetah conservation in these two countries is focussed primarily on the free-ranging populations as well as the mitigation of conflict between humans and cheetahs. In contrast, in neighbouring South Africa, the majority of cheetahs are found in fenced reserves. Nonetheless, conflict between humans and cheetahs remains an issue here. Conservation effort in South Africa is also focussed on managing the geographically isolated cheetah populations as one large meta-population. Relocation is one option among a suite of tools used to resolve human-cheetah conflict in southern Africa. Successfully relocating captured problem cheetahs, and maintaining a viable free-ranging cheetah population, are two environmental issues in cheetah conservation forming the first case study in this thesis. The second case study involves the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia. L. majuscula is a toxic algal bloom which has severe health, ecological and economic impacts on the community located in the vicinity of this algal bloom. Deception Bay is an important tourist destination with its proximity to Brisbane, Australia’s third largest city. Lyngbya is one of several algae considered to be a Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB). This group of algae includes other widespread blooms such as red tides. The occurrence of Lyngbya blooms is not a local phenomenon, but blooms of this toxic weed occur in coastal waters worldwide. With the increase in frequency and extent of these HAB blooms, it is important to gain a better understanding of the underlying factors contributing to the initiation and sustenance of these blooms. This knowledge will contribute to better management practices and the identification of those management actions which could prevent or diminish the severity of these blooms.

Valuing brand equity of a geographic region

There is much anecdotal evidence and academic argument that the location of a business influences its value. That is, some businesses appear to be worth more than others because of their location. This is particularly so in the tourism industry. Within the domain of the destination literature, many factors can be posited on why business valuation varies, ranging from access to markets, availability of labor, climate, and surrounding services. Given that business value is such a fundamental principle that underpins the viability of the tourist industry through its relationship with pricing, business acquisition, and investment, it is surprising that scant research has sought to quantify the relative premium associated with geographic locations. This study proposes a novel way in which to estimate geographic brand premium. Specifically, the approach translates valuation techniques from financial economics to quantify the incremental value derived from businesses operating in a particular geographic region, and produces a geographic brand premium. The article applies the technique to a well-known tourist destination in Australia, and the results are consistent with a positive value of brand equity in the key industries and are of a plausible order of magnitude. The article carries strong implications for business and tourism operators in terms of valuation, pricing, and investment, but more generally, the approach is potentially useful to local authorities and business associations when deciding how much resource and effort should be devoted to brand protection.

The jump component of S&P 500 volatility and the VIX index

Much research has investigated the differences between option implied volatilities and econometric model-based forecasts. Implied volatility is a market determined forecast, in contrast to model-based forecasts that employ some degree of smoothing of past volatility to generate forecasts. Implied volatility has the potential to reflect information that a model-based forecast could not. This paper considers two issues relating to the informational content of the S&P 500 VIX implied volatility index. First, whether it subsumes information on how historical jump activity contributed to the price volatility, followed by whether the VIX reflects any incremental information pertaining to future jump activity relative to model-based forecasts. It is found that the VIX index both subsumes information relating to past jump contributions to total volatility and reflects incremental information pertaining to future jump activity. This issue has not been examined previously and expands our understanding of how option markets form their volatility forecasts.