Climate spectrum estimation in the presence of timescale errors

We introduce an algorithm (called REDFITmc2) for spectrum estimation in the presence of timescale errors. It is based on the Lomb-Scargle periodogram for unevenly spaced time series, in combination with the Welch's Overlapped Segment Averaging procedure, bootstrap bias correction and persistence estimation. The timescale errors are modelled parametrically and included in the simulations for determining (1) the upper levels of the spectrum of the red-noise AR(1) alternative and (2) the uncertainty of the frequency of a spectral peak. Application of REDFITmc2 to ice core and stalagmite records of palaeoclimate allowed a more realistic evaluation of spectral peaks than when ignoring this source of uncertainty. The results support qualitatively the intuition that stronger effects on the spectrum estimate (decreased detectability and increased frequency uncertainty) occur for higher frequencies. The surplus information brought by algorithm REDFITmc2 is that those effects are quantified. Regarding timescale construction, not only the fixpoints, dating errors and the functional form of the age-depth model play a role. Also the joint distribution of all time points (serial correlation, stratigraphic order) determines spectrum estimation.

Global warming in an independent record of the past 130 years

The thermometer-based global surface temperature time series (GST) commands a prominent role in the evidence for global warming, yet this record has considerable uncertainty. An independent record with better geographic coverage would be valuable in understanding recent change in the context of natural variability. We compiled the Paleo Index (PI) from 173 temperature-sensitive proxy time series (corals, ice cores, speleothems, lake and ocean sediments, historical documents). Each series was normalized to produce index values of change relative to a 1901–2000 base period; the index values were then averaged. From 1880 to 1995, the index trends significantly upward, similar to the GST. Smaller-scale aspects of the GST including two warming trends and a warm interval during the 1940s are also observed in the PI. The PI extends to 1730 with 67 records. The upward trend appears to begin in the early 19th century but the year-to-year variability is large and the 1730–1929 trend is small.

Impact of volcanic stratospheric aerosols on diurnal temperature range in Europe over the past 200 years: Observations versus model simulations

We analyze the impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols on the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over Europe using long-term subdaily station records. We compare the results with a 28-member ensemble of European Centre/Hamburg version 5.4 (ECHAM5.4) general circulation model simulations. Eight stratospheric volcanic eruptions during the instrumental period are investigated. Seasonal all- and clear-sky DTR anomalies are compared with contemporary (approximately 20 year) reference periods. Clear sky is used to eliminate cloud effects and better estimate the signal from the direct radiative forcing of the volcanic aerosols. We do not find a consistent effect of stratospheric aerosols on all-sky DTR. For clear skies, we find average DTR anomalies of −0.08°C (−0.13°C) in the observations (in the model), with the largest effect in the second winter after the eruption. Although the clear-sky DTR anomalies from different stations, volcanic eruptions, and seasons show heterogeneous signals in terms of order of magnitude and sign, the significantly negative DTR anomalies (e.g., after the Tambora eruption) are qualitatively consistent with other studies. Referencing with clear-sky DTR anomalies to the radiative forcing from stratospheric volcanic eruptions, we find the resulting sensitivity to be of the same order of magnitude as previously published estimates for tropospheric aerosols during the so-called “global dimming” period (i.e., 1950s to 1980s). Analyzing cloud cover changes after volcanic eruptions reveals an increase in clear-sky days in both data sets. Quantifying the impact of stratospheric volcanic eruptions on clear-sky DTR over Europe provides valuable information for the study of the radiative effect of stratospheric aerosols and for geo-engineering purposes.

Presence of the Gpr179(nob5) allele in a C3H-derived transgenic mouse

PURPOSE To identify the mutation responsible for an abnormal electroretinogram (ERG) in a transgenic mouse line (tg21) overexpressing erythropoietin (Epo). The tg21 line was generated on a mixed (C3H; C57BL/6) background and lacked the b-wave component of the ERG. This no-b-wave (nob) ERG is seen in other mouse models with depolarizing bipolar cell (DBC) dysfunction and in patients with the complete form of congenital stationary night blindness (cCSNB). We determined the basis for the nob ERG phenotype and screened C3H mice for the mutation to evaluate whether this finding is important for the vision research community. METHODS ERGs were used to examine retinal function. The retinal structure of the transgenic mice was investigated using histology and immunohistochemistry. Inverse PCR was performed to identify the insertion site of the Epo transgene in the mouse genome. Affected mice were backcrossed to follow the inheritance pattern of the nob ERG phenotype. Quantitative real-time PCR (qRT PCR), Sanger sequencing, and immunohistochemistry were used to identify the mutation causing the defect. Additional C3H sublines were screened for the detected mutation. RESULTS Retinal histology and blood vessel structure were not disturbed, and no loss of DBCs was observed in the tg21 nob mice. The mutation causing the nob ERG phenotype is inherited independently of the tg21 transgene. The qRT PCR experiments revealed that the nob ERG phenotype reflected a mutation in Gpr179, a gene involved in DBC signal transduction. PCR analysis confirmed the presence of the Gpr179(nob5) insertional mutation in intron 1 of Gpr179. Screening for mutations in other C3H-derived lines revealed that C3H.Pde6b(+) mice carry the Gpr179 (nob5) allele whereas C3H/HeH mice do not. CONCLUSIONS We identified the presence of the Gpr179(nob5) mutation causing DBC dysfunction in a C3H-derived transgenic mouse line. The nob phenotype is not related to the presence of the transgene. The Gpr179(nob5) allele can be added to the list of background alleles that impact retinal function in commonly used mouse lines. By providing primers to distinguish between Gpr179 mutant and wild-type alleles, this study allows investigators to monitor for the presence of the Gpr179(nob5) mutation in other mouse lines derived from C3H.

Biogeochemical variability during the past 3.6 million years recorded by FTIR spectroscopy in the sediment record of Lake El'gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic

Abstract. A number of studies have shown that Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIRS) can be applied to quantitatively assess lacustrine sediment constituents. In this study, we developed calibration models based on FTIRS for the quantitative determination of biogenic silica (BSi; n = 420; gradient: 0.9–56.5 %), total organic carbon (TOC; n = 309; gradient: 0–2.9 %), and total inorganic carbon (TIC; n = 152; gradient: 0–0.4 %) in a 318 m-long sediment record with a basal age of 3.6 million years from Lake El’gygytgyn, Far East Russian Arctic. The developed partial least squares (PLS) regression models yield high cross-validated (CV) R2 CV = 0.86–0.91 and low root mean square error of crossvalidation (RMSECV) (3.1–7.0% of the gradient for the different properties). By applying these models to 6771 samples from the entire sediment record, we obtained detailed insight into bioproductivity variations in Lake El’gygytgyn throughout the middle to late Pliocene and Quaternary. High accumulation rates of BSi indicate a productivity maximum during the middle Pliocene (3.6–3.3 Ma), followed by gradually decreasing rates during the late Pliocene and Quaternary. The average BSi accumulation during the middle Pliocene was �3 times higher than maximum accumulation rates during the past 1.5 million years. The indicated progressive deterioration of environmental and climatic conditions in the Siberian Arctic starting at ca. 3.3 Ma is consistent with the first occurrence of glacial periods and the finally complete establishment of glacial–interglacial cycles during the Quaternary.

Frequent floods in the European Alps coincide with cooler periods of the past 2500 years

Severe floods triggered by intense precipitation are among the most destructive natural hazards in Alpine environments, frequently causing large financial and societal damage. Potential enhanced flood occurrence due to global climate change would thus increase threat to settlements, infrastructure, and human lives in the affected regions. Yet, projections of intense precipitation exhibit major uncertainties and robust reconstructions of Alpine floods are limited to the instrumental and historical period. Here we present a 2500-year long flood reconstruction for the European Alps, based on dated sedimentary flood deposits from ten lakes in Switzerland. We show that periods with high flood frequency coincide with cool summer temperatures. This wet-cold synchronism suggests enhanced flood occurrence to be triggered by latitudinal shifts of Atlantic and Mediterranean storm tracks. This paleoclimatic perspective reveals natural analogues for varying climate conditions, and thus can contribute to a better understanding and improved projections of weather extremes under climate change.

Intratumoural budding (ITB) in preoperative biopsies predicts the presence of lymph node and distant metastases in colon and rectal cancer patients

Background:In colorectal cancer (CRC), tumour budding at the invasion front is associated with lymph node (LN) and distant metastasis. Interestingly, tumour budding can also be detected in biopsies (intratumoural budding; ITB) and may have similar clinical importance. Here we investigate whether ITB in preoperative CRC biopsies can be translated into daily diagnostic practice.Methods:Preoperative biopsies from 133 CRC patients (no neoadjuvant therapy) underwent immunohistochemistry for pan-cytokeratin marker AE1/AE3. Across all biopsies for each patient, the densest region of buds at × 40 (high-power field; HPF) was identified and buds were counted.Results:A greater number of tumour buds in the biopsy was associated with pT stage (P=0.0143), LN metastasis (P=0.0007), lymphatic (P=0.0065) and venous vessel invasion (P=0.0318) and distant metastasis (cM1) (P=0.0013). Using logistic regression, a 'scale' was developed to estimate the probability of LN and distant metastasis using the number of tumour buds (e.g. 10 buds per HPF: 64% chance of LN metastasis; 30 buds per HPF: 86% chance). Inter-observer agreement for ITB was excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.813).Conclusion:Tumour budding can be assessed in the preoperative biopsy of CRC patients. It is practical, reproducible and predictive of LN and distant metastasis. Intratumoural budding qualifies for further investigation in the prospective setting.

The potential of stomata analysis in conifers to estimate presence of conifer trees: examples from the Alps

To estimate whether or not a plant taxon found in the fossil record was locally present may be difficult if only pollen is analyzed. Plant macrofossils, in contrast, provide a clear indication of a taxon's local presence, although in some lake sediments or peats, macrofossils may be rare or degraded. For conifers, the stomata found on pollen slides are derived from needles and thus provide a valuable proxy for local presence and they can be identified to genus level. From previously published studies, a transect across the Alps based on 13 sites is presented. For basal samples in sandy silt above the till with high pollen values of Pinus, for example, we may distinguish pine pollen from distant sources (samples with no stomata), from reworked pollen (samples with stomata present). The first apparent local presence of most conifer genera based on stomata often but not always occurs together with the phase of rapid pollen increase (rational limit). An exception is Larix, with its annual deposition of needles and heavy poorly dispersed pollen, for it often shows the first stomata earlier, at the empirical pollen limit. The decline and potential local extinction of a conifer can sometimes be shown in the stomata record. The decline may have been caused by climatic change, competition, or human impact. In situations where conifers form the timberline, the stomata record may indicate timberline fluctuations. In the discussion of immigration or migration of taxa we advocate the use of the cautious term ``apparent local presence'' to include some uncertainties. Absence of a taxon is impossible to prove.