ASSESSING THE UNRELIABILITY OF THE MEDICAL LITERATURE: A RESPONSE TO "WHY MOST PUBLISHED RESEARCH FINDINGS ARE FALSE"

A recent article in this journal (Ioannidis JP (2005) Why most published research findings are false. PLoS Med 2: e124) argued that more than half of published research findings in the medical literature are false. In this commentary, we examine the structure of that argument, and show that it has three basic components: 1)An assumption that the prior probability of most hypotheses explored in medical research is below 50%. 2)Dichotomization of P-values at the 0.05 level and introduction of a “bias” factor (produced by significance-seeking), the combination of which severely weakens the evidence provided by every design. 3)Use of Bayes theorem to show that, in the face of weak evidence, hypotheses with low prior probabilities cannot have posterior probabilities over 50%. Thus, the claim is based on a priori assumptions that most tested hypotheses are likely to be false, and then the inferential model used makes it impossible for evidence from any study to overcome this handicap. We focus largely on step (2), explaining how the combination of dichotomization and “bias” dilutes experimental evidence, and showing how this dilution leads inevitably to the stated conclusion. We also demonstrate a fallacy in another important component of the argument –that papers in “hot” fields are more likely to produce false findings. We agree with the paper’s conclusions and recommendations that many medical research findings are less definitive than readers suspect, that P-values are widely misinterpreted, that bias of various forms is widespread, that multiple approaches are needed to prevent the literature from being systematically biased and the need for more data on the prevalence of false claims. But calculating the unreliability of the medical research literature, in whole or in part, requires more empirical evidence and different inferential models than were used. The claim that “most research findings are false for most research designs and for most fields” must be considered as yet unproven.

ON THE MERITS OF VOXEL-BASED MORPHOMETRIC PATH-ANALYSIS FOR INVESTIGATING VOLUMETRIC MEDIATION OF A TOXICANT'S INFLUENCE ON COGNITIVE FUNCTION

We previously showed that lifetime cumulative lead dose, measured as lead concentration in the tibia bone by X-ray fluorescence, was associated with persistent and progressive declines in cognitive function and with decreases in MRI-based brain volumes in former lead workers. Moreover, larger region-specific brain volumes were associated with better cognitive function. These findings motivated us to explore a novel application of path analysis to evaluate effect mediation. Voxel-wise path analysis, at face value, represents the natural evolution of voxel-based morphometry methods to answer questions of mediation. Application of these methods to the former lead worker data demonstrated potential limitations in this approach where there was a tendency for results to be strongly biased towards the null hypothesis (lack of mediation). Moreover, a complimentary analysis using anatomically-derived regions of interest volumes yielded opposing results, suggesting evidence of mediation. Specifically, in the ROI-based approach, there was evidence that the association of tibia lead with function in three cognitive domains was mediated through the volumes of total brain, frontal gray matter, and/or possibly cingulate. A simulation study was conducted to investigate whether the voxel-wise results arose from an absence of localized mediation, or more subtle defects in the methodology. The simulation results showed the same null bias evidenced as seen in the lead workers data. Both the lead worker data results and the simulation study suggest that a null-bias in voxel-wise path analysis limits its inferential utility for producing confirmatory results.

Folliculo-stellate cells of "true dendritic" type are involved in the inflammatory microenvironment of tumor immunosurveillance of pituitary adenomas

Folliculo-stellate cells are a nonendocrine, sustentacular-like complementary population of the anterior pituitary. They currently are considered as functionally and phenotypically heterogeneous, with one subpopulation of folliculo-stellate cells possibly representing resident adenohypophyseal macrophages. We took advantage of a limited T-cell mediated inflammatory reaction selectively involving tumor tissue in three cases of pituitary adenoma (2 prolactin cell adenomas, and 1 null cell adenoma) to test the hypothesis whether some folliculo-stellate cells within inflammatory foci would also assume monocytic/dendritic properties. Immunohistochemical double labeling for S-100 protein and the class II major histocompatibility antigen HLA-DR indeed showed several arborized cells to coexpress both epitopes. These were distributed both amidst adenomatous acini and along intratumoral vessels, and were morphologically undistinguishable from conventional folliculo-stellate cells. On the other hand, markers of follicular dendritic cells (CD21) and Langerhans' cells (CD1a) tested negative. Furthermore, no S-100/HLA-DR coexpressing folliculo-stellate cells were seen in either peritumoral parenchyma of the cases in point nor in control pituitary adenomas lacking inflammatory reaction. These findings suggest that a subset of folliculo-stellate cells may be induced by an appropriate local inflammatory microenvironment to assume a dendritic cell-like immunophenotype recognizable by their coexpression of S-100 protein and HLA-DR. By analogy with HLA-DR expressing cells in well-established extrapituitary inflammatory constellations, we speculate that folliculo-stellate cells with such immunophenotype may actually perform professional antigen presentation. A distinctly uncommon finding in pituitary adenomas, lymphocytic infiltrates may therefore be read as a manifestation of tumoral immunosurveillance.

Contrast enhanced ultrasound eases interpretation of an unclear renal tumor in addition to CT, MRI and histological findings--a case report in a young patient

Renal cancer represents accounts for approximately 3% of all adult malignancies with a rising incidence. Incidental diagnosis is mostly based upon ultrasound (US). US and Computed tomography (CT) are the standard imaging modalities for detecting renal cell cancer (RCC). Differentiation between malignant and benign renal tumors is of utmost importance. Contrast enhanced ultrasound (CUS) seems to be a promising new diagnostic option for diagnosis and preoperative treatment planning for patients with renal cancer. It is an additional examination to baseline ultrasound and CT. We report a case of a 37-year-old woman with a papillary renal cell cancer in which CUS helped to differentiate dignity of the tumor. CUS is an additional examination to baseline ultrasound and CT. It is a less invasive technique than contrast enhanced CT and shows even slight tumor blood flow. In addition it may allow a more rapid diagnosis, because of its bedside availability.

Pretherapeutic staging of recurrent laryngeal carcinoma: clinical findings and imaging studies compared with histopathology

OBJECTIVE: To assess the accuracy of preoperative imaging studies and clinical and endoscopic examinations for recurrent laryngeal carcinoma evaluation. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: A retrospective comparative study was performed at a university department on 42 recurrent laryngeal carcinomas. Surgical specimens were cut into whole-organ slices. Histologic findings were compared with the findings of the different preoperative diagnostic modalities. RESULTS: The craniocaudal tumor spread was correctly evaluated by endoscopy and imaging studies in 52% and 24%, respectively, and the contralateral tumor spread in 50% and 52%, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for detection of tumor infiltration of the thyroid was 48%, 88%, and 64% and of the cricoid 47%, 80%, and 67%. The accuracy of recurrent tumor classification (crT) was 50%; most tumors were underclassified. CONCLUSION: The inadequately evaluated tumor spread and the inadequately classified recurrent tumors were underestimated and underclassified in most cases, respectively.

Drowning--post-mortem imaging findings by computed tomography

The aim of this study was to identify the classic autopsy signs of drowning in post-mortem multislice computed tomography (MSCT). Therefore, the post-mortem pre-autopsy MSCT- findings of ten drowning cases were correlated with autopsy and statistically compared with the post-mortem MSCT of 20 non-drowning cases. Fluid in the airways was present in all drowning cases. Central aspiration in either the trachea or the main bronchi was usually observed. Consecutive bronchospasm caused emphysema aquosum. Sixty percent of drowning cases showed a mosaic pattern of the lung parenchyma due to regions of hypo- and hyperperfused lung areas of aspiration. The resorption of fresh water in the lung resulted in hypodensity of the blood representing haemodilution and possible heart failure. Swallowed water distended the stomach and duodenum; and inflow of water filled the paranasal sinuses (100%). All the typical findings of drowning, except Paltau's spots, were detected using post-mortem MSCT, and a good correlation of MSCT and autopsy was found. The advantage of MSCT was the direct detection of bronchospasm, haemodilution and water in the paranasal sinus, which is rather complicated or impossible at the classical autopsy.

Clinical forensic radiology in strangulation victims: forensic expertise based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings

Based on only one objective and several subjective signs, the forensic classification of strangulation incidents concerning their life-threatening quality can be problematic. Reflecting that it is almost impossible to detect internal injuries of the neck with the standard forensic external examination, we examined 14 persons who have survived manual and ligature strangulation or forearm choke holds using MRI technique (1.5-T scanner). Two clinical radiologists evaluated the neck findings independently. The danger to life was evaluated based on the "classical" external findings alone and in addition to the radiological data. We observed hemorrhaging in the subcutaneous fatty tissue of the neck in ten cases. Other frequent findings were hemorrhages of the neck and larynx muscles, the lymph nodes, the pharynx, and larynx soft tissues. Based on the classical forensic strangulation findings with MRI, eight of the cases were declared as life-endangering incidents, four of them without the presence of petechial hemorrhage but with further signs of impaired brain function due to hypoxia. The accuracy of future forensic classification of the danger to life will probably be increased when it is based not only on one objective and several subjective signs but also on the evidence of inner neck injuries. However, further prospective studies including larger cohorts are necessary to clarify the value of the inner neck injuries in the forensic classification of surviving strangulation victims.

Mastoiditis in children: a prospective, observational study comparing clinical presentation, microbiology, computed tomography, surgical findings and histology

The aim of this study was to obtain comprehensive data on clinical presentation, microbiology, computed tomography, surgical findings and histology in acute, sub-acute and chronic mastoiditis. We performed a prospective, observational study in children under 16 years of age presenting to our institution during the 2-year period beginning in April 2000. The children were examined and their condition treated in accordance with a standardized protocol elaborated by the paediatric, otolaryngology (ORL) and radiology departments. Thirty-eight patients were hospitalized (22 with acute mastoiditis, seven with sub-acute mastoiditis, nine with chronic mastoiditis). There were 30 complications present in 21 patients (55%). Streptococcus pyogenes was the most common pathogen (7/24 cases), followed by Streptococcus pneumoniae (4/24 cases). Mastoid surgery was performed in 29 patients. Histology of mastoid tissue revealed predominantly acute inflammation in two cases, mixed acute/chronic inflammation in 19 cases and predominantly chronic inflammation in seven cases. Radiologic data were evaluated retrospectively. Spiral, volume-based high-resolution (HR) computed tomography (CT) of the temporal bone had a sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 38%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 50% and negative predictive value (NPV) of 100% in detecting coalescence of mastoid trabeculae. Cranial CT with contrast had a sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 94%, PPV of 80% and NPV of 94% in identifying intra-cranial extension. Conclusion: histological evidence suggests that sub-acute/chronic infection underlies not only sub-acute and chronic mastoiditis, but most cases of acute mastoiditis as well. HR-CT of the temporal bone is effective in ruling out coalescence. Cranial CT is valuable in identifying intra-cranial extension. Cranial and HR-CT are recommended in the examination of children with mastoiditis.

Mechanisms of unexpected death and autopsy findings in Leigh syndrome (subacute necrotising encephalomyelopathy)

A 21-year-old previously-well woman who was undergoing medical investigations for problems with balance and suspected multiple sclerosis, developed a headache and breathing difficulties, and died suddenly and unexpected at home. The autopsy was unremarkable except for pulmonary and cerebral oedema. However, subsequent microscopy of the brain revealed characteristic features of Leigh syndrome with multifocal areas of astrogliosis, capillary proliferation, and parenchymal vacuolation. While Leigh syndrome is more commonly diagnosed in infancy, manifestations may occur throughout early life into adulthood. Sudden and unexpected death is a rare presentation that may be associated with cerebral necrosis and oedema. An awareness of the variable manifestations of Leigh syndrome is necessary in forensic practice as not all cases will present in a typical manner and sudden death may occur before a diagnosis has been established. The heritable nature of this condition makes accuracy of diagnosis essential.